A Unified Theory of Evolutionary Dynamics: Integrating Selection, Mutation, and Drift

A Unified Theory of Evolutionary Dynamics: Integrating Selection, Mutation, and Drift | Authorea try { document.documentElement.classList.add('js'); } catch (e) { } var _gaq = _gaq || []; _gaq.push(['_setAccount', 'G-8VDV14Y67G']); _gaq.push(['_trackPageview']); (function() { var ga = document.createElement('script'); ga.type = 'text/javascript'; ga.async = true; ga.src = ('https:' == document.location.protocol ? 'https://ssl' : 'http://www') + '.google-analytics.com/ga.js'; var s = document.getElementsByTagName('script')[0]; s.parentNode.insertBefore(ga, s); })(); Skip to main content Preprints Collections Wiley Open Research IET Open Research Ecological Society of Japan All Collections About About Authorea FAQs Contact Us Quick Search anywhere Search for preprint articles, keywords, etc. Search Search ADVANCED SEARCH SCROLL This is a preprint and has not been peer reviewed. Data may be preliminary. 30 September 2025 V1 Latest version Share on A Unified Theory of Evolutionary Dynamics: Integrating Selection, Mutation, and Drift Authors : Dongqi Liu 0009-0006-4018-9292 and shifa liu 0009-0003-6570-2812 [email protected] Authors Info & Affiliations https://doi.org/10.22541/au.175925365.55641126/v1 441 views 117 downloads Contents Abstract Supplementary Material Information & Authors Metrics & Citations View Options References Figures Tables Media Share Abstract We propose a unified evolutionary dynamics equation (EDE) integrating natural selec tion, genetic mutation, and genetic drift: dΦ dt = VAµ Drive · tanh sN0.31 e 2.1 Saturation · e−D/T Diversity where Φ = ln[p/(1−p)] is the adaptive potential, VA is the additive genetic variance, µ is the mutation rate, s is the selection coefficient, Ne is the effective population size, D is the genetic distance, and T quantifies environmental turbulence. Theoretical analysis confirms the equation’s scale invariance under appropriate transformations and boundary consistency. Bayesian validation against 34 empirical datasets shows mean absolute errors of 4.2% (selec tion response, n = 12), 3.8% (mutation-selection balance, n = 12), and 3.5% (genetic drift,n =10), representing 45-55% improvements over classical models. Uncertainty quantifica tion reveals posterior credible intervals of ±0.02 for the Ne exponent. Independent validation demonstrates 4.7% mean error across diverse biological systems. This framework resolves long-standing fragmentation in evolutionary theory and enables predictive applications in f ields from epidemiology to biodiversity conservation. Supplementary Material File (evo1.pdf) Download 326.39 KB Information & Authors Information Version history V1 Version 1 30 September 2025 Copyright This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License Keywords bayesian inference evolutionary dynamics genetic drift natural selection predictive modeling quantitative genetics unified theory Authors Affiliations Dongqi Liu 0009-0006-4018-9292 View all articles by this author shifa liu 0009-0003-6570-2812 [email protected] View all articles by this author Metrics & Citations Metrics Article Usage 441 views 117 downloads .FvxKWukQNSOunydq8rnd { width: 100px; } Citations Download citation Dongqi Liu, shifa liu. A Unified Theory of Evolutionary Dynamics: Integrating Selection, Mutation, and Drift. Authorea . 30 September 2025. DOI: https://doi.org/10.22541/au.175925365.55641126/v1 If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. 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