Land remains a blind spot in tracking progress under the Paris Agreement due to lack of data comparability

Land remains a blind spot in tracking progress under the Paris Agreement due to lack of data comparability | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Land remains a blind spot in tracking progress under the Paris Agreement due to lack of data comparability Rosa Maria Roman-Cuesta, Michel den Elzen, Zuelclady Araujo, Nicklas Forsell, and 10 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-5440972/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Carbon fluxes from land use are key to the Paris Agreement. However, data comparability issues persist between countries’ inventories and targets (Nationally Determined Contributions, NDCs), which generally include direct and indirect anthropogenic net emissions, and what models provide as Paris-aligned benchmarks (direct net emissions only). As a result, the first Global Stocktake, aiming to track collective mitigation progress, did not explicitly consider country targets for land. This blind spot leaves countries uninformed of the 2030 gap between their ambitions for mitigation on land and models’ benchmarks, affecting net-zero trajectories. We provide an analysis of land-related targets under NDC 2020, splitting reduced emissions and additional sinks. Land use holds a quarter of global mitigation pledges in 2030, mostly through conditional support (-1.5ǂ1.1 GtCO 2 e/yr, of which − 0.6 GtCO 2 e/yr are additional sinks). To provide more policy-relevant information to decision makers, it is crucial that future Global Stocktakes also include appropriate comparisons of modelled scenarios and country land-use data. Environmental Policy Forestry NDCs Land use Climate change mitigation Global Stocktake Paris Agreement Full Text Additional Declarations The authors declare no competing interests. Supplementary Material is not available with this version. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-5440972","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":377277328,"identity":"0da35929-7ee8-4d33-b5d9-5e80673d34f8","order_by":0,"name":"Rosa Maria Roman-Cuesta","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA7klEQVRIiWNgGAWjYHAD5gMka2FLIFkLjwFx6szb2x9+YNxjE80/u+fjgx8MNonb23sPfmCoOIxTi8yZM8YSDM/ScmfcObvZsIchLXHOmXPJEgxncGuRkMhhkGA4cDi34UbuNmkGhsOJMyRyDCQY2/BpSX/8A6Rl/o2c578ZGP6DtBj/YPyHT0uCGdiWDTdy2JgZGA6AtJhJMDbg0cJzxswi4UBa7sYbacaSPQbJxjN4zqVZJBxLx62Fvf3xjQ8HbHLn3Uh++OFHhZ3sDPbewzc+1Fjj1AIGCXAWOGp4kEWIAzwkqh8Fo2AUjILhDgCW3VTpP747NgAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6945-8402","institution":"Joint Research Centre","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Rosa","middleName":"Maria","lastName":"Roman-Cuesta","suffix":""},{"id":377277329,"identity":"f1fc6eb4-0bdb-4667-a7cc-7ca16381650d","order_by":1,"name":"Michel den Elzen","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Michel","middleName":"den","lastName":"Elzen","suffix":""},{"id":377277330,"identity":"757ff0b9-95c7-4700-8e86-e6faf1748e92","order_by":2,"name":"Zuelclady Araujo","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"IIASA","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Zuelclady","middleName":"","lastName":"Araujo","suffix":""},{"id":377277331,"identity":"f275a071-5e87-46bd-b476-9ace25566ef5","order_by":3,"name":"Nicklas Forsell","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"IIASA","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Nicklas","middleName":"","lastName":"Forsell","suffix":""},{"id":377282680,"identity":"681b2f7b-fb28-480a-a930-f3191619a746","order_by":4,"name":"William F. 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However, data comparability issues persist between countries\u0026rsquo; inventories and targets (Nationally Determined Contributions, NDCs), which generally include direct and indirect anthropogenic net emissions, and what models provide as Paris-aligned benchmarks (direct net emissions only). As a result, the first Global Stocktake, aiming to track collective mitigation progress, did not explicitly consider country targets for land. This blind spot leaves countries uninformed of the 2030 gap between their ambitions for mitigation on land and models\u0026rsquo; benchmarks, affecting net-zero trajectories. We provide an analysis of land-related targets under NDC 2020, splitting reduced emissions and additional sinks. Land use holds a quarter of global mitigation pledges in 2030, mostly through conditional support (-1.5ǂ1.1 GtCO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003ee/yr, of which \u0026minus;\u0026thinsp;0.6 GtCO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003ee/yr are additional sinks). 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