Assessing mosquito dynamics and dengue transmission in Foz do Iguaçu, Brazil through an enhanced temperature-dependent mathematical model

C. S. Rauh, E. C. Araujo, Fabiana Ganem, R. M. Lana, A. S. Leandro, C. A. Martins, F. C. Coelho, C. T. Codeço, L. S. Bastos, S. T. R. Pinho
2025 · doi:10.1101/2025.01.10.25320311
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Abstract

Dengue fever is a public health concern that demands efforts to mitigate its impact. We aim to investigate the influence of key parameters temperature-dependent on dengue transmission dynamics in Foz do Iguaçu, a triple border municipality in south Brazil, applying a mathematical model composed by systems of ordinary differential equations. Adjusted model simulation is consistent with the observed data. The effective reproduction number was calculated for detecting changes in dengue transmission over time and to timely detect the beginning of epidemics. Additionally, we explore the potential effects of climate variability on dengue dynamics. Our findings show the importance of vector population dynamics, climate and incidence, contributing to a deeper understanding of dengue transmission dynamics in Foz do Iguaçu and providing a foundation for optimizing intervention strategies, also, in other cities, enhancing our ability to predict and manage dengue outbreaks and supporting public health efforts to control measures.
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Abstract Dengue fever is a public health concern that demands efforts to mitigate its impact. We aim to investigate the influence of key parameters temperature-dependent on dengue transmission dynamics in Foz do Iguaçu, a triple border municipality in south Brazil, applying a mathematical model composed by systems of ordinary differential equations. Adjusted model simulation is consistent with the observed data. The effective reproduction number was calculated for detecting changes in dengue transmission over time and to timely detect the beginning of epidemics. Additionally, we explore the potential effects of climate variability on dengue dynamics. Our findings show the importance of vector population dynamics, climate and incidence, contributing to a deeper understanding of dengue transmission dynamics in Foz do Iguaçu and providing a foundation for optimizing intervention strategies, also, in other cities, enhancing our ability to predict and manage dengue outbreaks and supporting public health efforts to control measures. Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest. Funding Statement This work was supported by funding from the INOVA Fiocruz Program with grant number VPPCB-002-FIO-20. C.R. was supported by Fundacao de Amparo a Pesquisa da Bahia (FAPESB) with a master's fellowship to carry out this work in project 4439/2022. S.T.R.P. was supported by the Brazilian National Council for Scientific and Technological Development (CNPq) due to her grant (305941/2021-6) and participation in the National Institute of Science and Technology Complex Systems. L.S.B acknowledges support from the FAPERJ (http://www.faperj.br/) grant E-26/201.277/2021 and CNPq (https://www.gov.br/cnpq/) grant 310530/2021-0. RML was supported by the Beatriu de Pinos program (2021 BP 00197) from the Secretariat of Universities and Research of the Research and Universities Department of the Generalitat de Catalunya. Author Declarations I confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained. Yes I confirm that all necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived, and that any patient/participant/sample identifiers included were not known to anyone (e.g., hospital staff, patients or participants themselves) outside the research group so cannot be used to identify individuals. Yes I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance). Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines, such as any relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material, if applicable. Yes Data Availability We confirm that all database and code used in this work remains available in a public repository.

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