A Physics-Informed Stochastic Model for Long-Term Correlation of Earthquakes

Matteo Taroni, Simone Barani, Davide Zaccagnino, Giuseppe Petrillo, Pietro Artale Harris
2024 · doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-4820676/v1
preprint OA: closed CC-BY-4.0
📄 Open PDF View at publisher

Abstract

Abstract In this work, a simple physics-informed stochastic earthquake catalog simulator is presented for the modeling of long memory on a single fault (or crustal volume). The simulation combines the fundamental statistical laws of seismology (i.e., the Gutenberg-Richter law and the exponential distribution of inter-event times of spontaneous events) with two physical assumptions: 1) earthquake magnitudes are constrained by the amount of potential energy accumulated within the crustal volume at a given time, 2) existence of an upper boundary for stress on the fault. The consequence is a deviation from the conventional exponential inter-event distribution. We analyze a set of simulated catalogs to inspect long memory. We found that, depending on the relative proportion of energy accumulation and release, catalogs can exhibit complex patterns and long memory behavior. Despite its simplicity, our simulator can replicate the key features of seismic activity observed in real data, thus enabling a consistent physical interpretation.

My notes (saved in your browser only)

Citation neighborhood (no data yet)

We don't have any in-corpus citations linked to this paper yet. This is a recent paper (2024) — citers typically take a year or two to land, and the OpenAlex reference graph may still be filling in.

References (73)

Source provenance

crossref
last seen: 2026-07-07T06:37:26.403445+00:00
europepmc
last seen: 2026-05-20T01:45:00.602351+00:00
unpaywall
last seen: 2026-05-22T02:00:06.705733+00:00
License: CC-BY-4.0