Research on the risk assessment method of heavy rainfall-geological hazard- flooding chain based on directed weighting network

Research on the risk assessment method of heavy rainfall-geological hazard- flooding chain based on directed weighting network | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Research on the risk assessment method of heavy rainfall-geological hazard- flooding chain based on directed weighting network Jingjing Pei, Caiyan Dai, Tong Cui This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7487206/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 06 Jan, 2026 Read the published version in Scientific Reports → Version 1 posted 12 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Disasters have consistently impacted the development of human society. This research proposes a disaster chain risk assessment method based on a directed weighted network to address the increasing disaster risk in the storm-geological disaster-flood chain during urbanisation. By analysing heavy rainfall disaster cases in China over the past ten years, the paper identifies 23 key nodes to construct a disaster chain causal loop network and establishes a Bayesian network model using 20 years of historical data from Beijing. The exposure-vulnerability of the disaster-bearing body is incorporated into the assessment system, and six functional subsystems, such as electricity and traffic, are divided, and the weighted network is constructed by using improved hierarchical analysis and brittle entropy method. A three-dimensional node importance algorithm integrating node access, shortest path and global influence is proposed, and the comprehensive weights of 38 nodes are quantitatively calculated. The risk assessment method of the disaster chain with directed weighted network is obtained, and the risk value of the disaster chain in Mentougou District is 34.23. The research results break through the limitations of the traditional single-hazard and unweighted network research, and the constructed assessment model can provide a quantitative decision-making basis for urban disaster prevention and mitigation. Physical sciences/Engineering Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental sciences Earth and environmental sciences/Natural hazards Urban hazard chains Directed weighted networks Bayesian networks Exposure-vulnerability analysis Hazard chain risk assessment Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 06 Jan, 2026 Read the published version in Scientific Reports → Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Revision requested 22 Oct, 2025 Reviews received at journal 16 Oct, 2025 Reviews received at journal 13 Oct, 2025 Reviews received at journal 25 Sep, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 22 Sep, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 21 Sep, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 19 Sep, 2025 Reviewers invited by journal 12 Sep, 2025 Editor assigned by journal 09 Sep, 2025 Editor invited by journal 09 Sep, 2025 Submission checks completed at journal 09 Sep, 2025 First submitted to journal 08 Sep, 2025 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7487206","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":515746289,"identity":"b4c1efc0-eef7-4b9a-81e1-f3d8b37f1859","order_by":0,"name":"Jingjing Pei","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"China University of Geosciences (Beijing)","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Jingjing","middleName":"","lastName":"Pei","suffix":""},{"id":515746290,"identity":"094134b3-db4e-4114-a46b-86e678b68dd7","order_by":1,"name":"Caiyan Dai","email":"data:image/png;base64,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","orcid":"","institution":"China University of Geosciences (Beijing)","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Caiyan","middleName":"","lastName":"Dai","suffix":""},{"id":515746291,"identity":"df0f1223-9951-4a4d-be61-1c1c1f2168c9","order_by":2,"name":"Tong Cui","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Huirui Energy Holdings Group Co., Ltd","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Tong","middleName":"","lastName":"Cui","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-08-29 09:38:23","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7487206/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7487206/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[{"content":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-32694-4","type":"published","date":"2026-01-06T15:57:34+00:00"}],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":100069158,"identity":"f328b100-e7c1-4c45-9b4d-e16aab773b97","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-01-12 16:10:55","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":754807,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Researchontheriskassessmentmethodofheavyrainfallgeologicalhazardfloodingchainbasedondirectedweightingnetwork.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7487206/v1_covered_6ba053ae-173c-4d2e-9e21-6aa4398b0b1d.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"Research on the risk assessment method of heavy rainfall-geological hazard- flooding chain based on directed weighting network","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":true,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"scientific-reports","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"scirep","sideBox":"Learn more about [Scientific Reports](http://www.nature.com/srep/)","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"","title":"Scientific Reports","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"stoa","reportingPortfolio":"Scientific Reports","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Urban hazard chains, Directed weighted networks, Bayesian networks, Exposure-vulnerability analysis, Hazard chain risk assessment","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7487206/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7487206/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eDisasters have consistently impacted the development of human society. This research proposes a disaster chain risk assessment method based on a directed weighted network to address the increasing disaster risk in the storm-geological disaster-flood chain during urbanisation. By analysing heavy rainfall disaster cases in China over the past ten years, the paper identifies 23 key nodes to construct a disaster chain causal loop network and establishes a Bayesian network model using 20 years of historical data from Beijing. The exposure-vulnerability of the disaster-bearing body is incorporated into the assessment system, and six functional subsystems, such as electricity and traffic, are divided, and the weighted network is constructed by using improved hierarchical analysis and brittle entropy method. A three-dimensional node importance algorithm integrating node access, shortest path and global influence is proposed, and the comprehensive weights of 38 nodes are quantitatively calculated. 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