Kalman Filter Based Short Term Prediction Model for COVID-19 Spread

Suraj Kumar, Koushlendra Kumar Singh, Prachi Dixit, Manish Kumar Bajpai
2020 · doi:10.1101/2020.05.30.20117416
preprint OA: gold CC-BY-NC-4.0
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Abstract

COVID-19 has emerged as global medical emergency in recentdecades. The spread scenario of this pandemic has shown many variations. Keeping all this in mind, this article is written after various studies and analysis on the latest data on COVID-19 spread, which also includes the demographic and environmental factors. After gathering data from various resources, all data are integrated and passed into different Machine Learning Models to check the fit. Ensemble Learning Technique,Random Forest, gives a good evaluation score on the test data. Through this technique, various important factors are recognised and their contribution to the spread is analysed. Also, linear relationship between various features is plotted through heatmap of Pearson Correlation matrix. Finally, Kalman Filter is used to estimate future spread of COVID19, which shows good result on test data. The inferences from Random Forest feature importance and Pearson Correlation gives many similarities and some dissimilarities, and these techniques successfully identify the different contributing factors. The Kalman Filter gives a satisfying result for short term estimation, but not so good performance for long term forecasting. Overall, the analysis, plots, inferences and forecast are satisfying and can help a lot in fighting the spread of the virus.

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License: CC-BY-NC-4.0