Estimating the Teacher Gap and Funding Requirements in Eastern and Southern Africa

This paper estimates the number of teachers required to meet different pupil-teacher (P-T) ratio targets in 2030 for all education levels in Eastern and Southern Africa (ESA). It also assesses the affordability of those targets based on different scenarios and presents detailed projections for the region as well as for 20 countries. To meet goals around education and learning, the model finds that governments in ESA will need to pay for more than five million additional teachers by 2030. When compared to affordability estimates, which reflect the latest teacher compensation spending trends, government investments will need to double. While there is variation across countries, the compounding shortage of teachers is a serious risk to improving learning across the region.These findings underscore the need to invest more resources in teachers and education systems more generally. If governments were able to progressively increase their investment in education to reach six percent of GDP in 2030, which is in line with the most ambitious target in the Incheon Declaration, it would be possible to recruit an additional three million teachers, which partially closes the gap. However, most governments will need to invest much more, including up to eight percent of GDP, to maximize learning opportunities and outcomes for all children in the region.Boosting investments in education systems is a particularly daunting task in the context of COVID-19 and the multitude of competing priorities. Nevertheless, governments are strongly encouraged to steadily increase the amount of resources allocated to the education sector each year, strengthen efforts to improve value for money and transparency in education spending processes, make the case to receive greater external support for education, and negotiate for debt relief that directly benefits the education sector, including through debt-for-education swaps.Boosting investments is particularly challenging in the context of COVID-19 and the multitude of competing priorities. However, governments can: (i) steadily increase the amount of resources allocated to the education sector in the annual budget cycle; (ii) convert some of the new Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) allocated by the IMF to invest in the education sector; (iii) strengthen efforts to improve value for money and transparency in education spending processes; (iv) develop compelling investment cases to receive greater external support for education from donors and international financial institutions; and (v) negotiate for debt relief that directly benefits the education sector, including through debt-for-education swaps.