COVID-19 Hospital Admissions and Wastewater Data in Canada: A Statistical Analysis

COVID-19 Hospital Admissions and Wastewater Data in Canada: A Statistical Analysis | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article COVID-19 Hospital Admissions and Wastewater Data in Canada: A Statistical Analysis Warsame Yusuf, David Champredon This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-6628716/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Since the COVID-19 pandemic, many jurisdictions have adopted wastewater-based surveillance for various pathogens. Indeed, monitoring pathogen concentration in wastewater, usually measured in RNA or DNA copies per millilitre, can efficiently assess the prevalence of infections in entire communities. However, wastewater-based surveillance does not provide a directly interpretable and actionable metric for public health. Here, we propose a statistical framework that assesses the relationship between COVID-19 hospital admissions and SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater for several large urban centres in Canada between 2021 and 2024. We also use this analysis to categorize early into an infection wave the clinical severity of future SARS-CoV-2 epidemics. SARS-CoV-2 Wastewater-based surveillance COVID-19 hospitalizations Hierarchical Bayesian regression Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-6628716","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":470466096,"identity":"7eb7cf6b-67c2-46d7-9815-863af3d55859","order_by":0,"name":"Warsame Yusuf","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Public Health Agency of Canada","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Warsame","middleName":"","lastName":"Yusuf","suffix":""},{"id":470466098,"identity":"977677c0-d563-4b3b-b23d-815652abc4b9","order_by":1,"name":"David Champredon","email":"data:image/png;base64,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","orcid":"","institution":"Public Health Agency of Canada","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"David","middleName":"","lastName":"Champredon","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-05-09 12:38:20","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6628716/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6628716/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":93048282,"identity":"73ee3d8f-9b78-42dc-bb2d-d120e6099cd9","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-10-08 13:47:16","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":1352679,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"mshowaregbmcph1b.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6628716/v1_covered_bff37024-8d4e-4aa3-a842-06beb198cd98.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"COVID-19 Hospital Admissions and Wastewater Data in Canada: A Statistical Analysis","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"SARS-CoV-2, Wastewater-based surveillance, COVID-19 hospitalizations, Hierarchical Bayesian regression","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6628716/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6628716/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"Since the COVID-19 pandemic, many jurisdictions have adopted wastewater-based surveillance for various pathogens. 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