{"paper_id":"5cf4efcb-bfa4-4809-8789-1a9e16b3f2d0","body_text":"Probabilities of reaching required diffusion of granular energy technologies in European countries | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Probabilities of reaching required diffusion of granular energy technologies in European countries Nik Zielonka, Evelina Trutnevyte This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-4039857/v2 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 15 Jan, 2025 Read the published version in iScience → Version 2 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Show more versions Abstract To support discussions around the feasibility of the energy transition, we present probabilistic projections of the expected baseline diffusion of solar photovoltaics, wind power, biogases, heat pumps and low-carbon passenger vehicles in 39 European countries for 2023-2050 under current contextual conditions. We then compare the projected capacities against those required for reaching net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. We create our projections using 72 different variants of diffusion models that we validate using hindcasting (2012-2022) and weigh according to their performance. We find a notable expected growth in solar photovoltaics, heat pumps, and battery electric vehicles in the majority of European countries. However, most countries are unlikely to reach the required capacities for net-zero emissions of wind power and biogases with high confidence, and battery electric vehicles with lower confidence. Probabilities and confidence levels of reaching required capacities of solar photovoltaics and heat pumps vary the most between countries. Energy Engineering Environmental Engineering Environmental Policy probabilistic projections feasibility technology diffusion granular energy technologies solar photovoltaics wind power biogases heat pumps electric vehicles hindcasting Full Text Additional Declarations The authors declare no competing interests. Supplementary Files 20241030SIProbProjEuropeZielonkaTrutnevyte.pdf Supplemental information: Probabilities of reaching required diffusion of granular energy technologies in European countries Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 15 Jan, 2025 Read the published version in iScience → Version 2 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Show more versions Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. 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