{"paper_id":"4a737fc4-ab25-47d4-9631-cc9d819dd07a","body_text":"Disturbed Equilibrium Theory and Index for Anticipating Ecosystem Collapse and Renewal | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Disturbed Equilibrium Theory and Index for Anticipating Ecosystem Collapse and Renewal Ramin Gozarani Eghtesad This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8388436/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted 11 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Environmental crises—ranging from shrinking lakes and land subsidence to coral bleaching and floods—are increasingly recognized as systemic reactions of ecosystems to persistent human and climatic pressures. Yet, existing frameworks such as Resilience Theory and Panarchy remain largely descriptive, lacking predictive or operational tools to quantify when ecosystems cross critical thresholds. This study introduces the Disturbed Equilibrium Theory (DET) and its operational metric, the Disturbed Equilibrium Index (DEI) , which model and quantify ecosystem transitions from dynamic balance to collapse or renewal. DEI integrates Human Pressure (H) , Exogenous Stress (A) , and Resilience (R) into a single diagnostic function: Disturbed Equilibrium Theory (DET) Ecosystem collapse Environmental resilience Human–nature interaction Sustainability governance Early-Warning Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Supplementary Files SupplementaryMethods.pdf Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted Reviews received at journal 23 Feb, 2026 Reviews received at journal 22 Feb, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 16 Feb, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 13 Feb, 2026 Reviews received at journal 02 Feb, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 02 Feb, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 30 Jan, 2026 Reviewers invited by journal 21 Jan, 2026 Editor assigned by journal 07 Jan, 2026 Submission checks completed at journal 31 Dec, 2025 First submitted to journal 31 Dec, 2025 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {\"props\":{\"pageProps\":{\"initialData\":{\"identity\":\"rs-8388436\",\"acceptedTermsAndConditions\":true,\"allowDirectSubmit\":false,\"archivedVersions\":[],\"articleType\":\"Research Article\",\"associatedPublications\":[],\"authors\":[{\"id\":578418702,\"identity\":\"0623bef0-7b7a-4bcf-b107-9febb20b85bd\",\"order_by\":0,\"name\":\"Ramin Gozarani Eghtesad\",\"email\":\"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA60lEQVRIiWNgGAWjYJCCAzCGxAcgwcZOpBYJEENyBkgLM5E2gbVI84BIQlrM208nHi6osK7j5z/88LbNr23yfMwMjB8+5uDWInMmd8PhGWfSJSRnpBlb5/bdNmxjZmCWnLkNn4OAWnjbDksY3GAwk87tuc0I1MLGzItPC/9boJZ/hyXszx//Jm3Zc9uesBYJkC0NQFsYcsykGX7cTiRCC9AWnmPpkjNu5BRb9jbcTm5jZmzG7xf+3M2feWqs+fn7j2+88ePPbdv57c0HP3zEowUKoHHB2AYmGwiqR2hh+EOM4lEwCkbBKBhpAABwpE7D6BFjNwAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==\",\"orcid\":\"\",\"institution\":\"\",\"correspondingAuthor\":true,\"prefix\":\"\",\"firstName\":\"Ramin\",\"middleName\":\"Gozarani\",\"lastName\":\"Eghtesad\",\"suffix\":\"\"}],\"badges\":[],\"createdAt\":\"2025-12-17 18:23:17\",\"currentVersionCode\":1,\"declarations\":\"\",\"doi\":\"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8388436/v1\",\"doiUrl\":\"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8388436/v1\",\"draftVersion\":[],\"editorialEvents\":[],\"editorialNote\":\"\",\"failedWorkflow\":false,\"files\":[{\"id\":102404004,\"identity\":\"3eecbe04-4d88-44c4-8e13-54639d3d01a6\",\"added_by\":\"auto\",\"created_at\":\"2026-02-11 10:53:08\",\"extension\":\"pdf\",\"order_by\":1,\"title\":\"\",\"display\":\"\",\"copyAsset\":false,\"role\":\"manuscript-pdf\",\"size\":890783,\"visible\":true,\"origin\":\"\",\"legend\":\"\",\"description\":\"\",\"filename\":\"Manuscript1.pdf\",\"url\":\"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8388436/v1_covered_7f7b94fb-e0cd-4d2b-abd4-ac44a5e6d26a.pdf\"},{\"id\":101300638,\"identity\":\"2eb80aa8-8611-4518-a432-ceccaf5e0560\",\"added_by\":\"auto\",\"created_at\":\"2026-01-28 09:49:37\",\"extension\":\"pdf\",\"order_by\":1,\"title\":\"\",\"display\":\"\",\"copyAsset\":false,\"role\":\"supplement\",\"size\":297720,\"visible\":true,\"origin\":\"\",\"legend\":\"\",\"description\":\"\",\"filename\":\"SupplementaryMethods.pdf\",\"url\":\"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8388436/v1/38db5beb13ee66084fd278f8.pdf\"}],\"financialInterests\":\"No competing interests reported.\",\"formattedTitle\":\"Disturbed Equilibrium Theory and Index for Anticipating Ecosystem Collapse and Renewal\",\"fulltext\":[],\"fulltextSource\":\"\",\"fullText\":\"\",\"funders\":[],\"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow\":false,\"hasManuscriptDocX\":false,\"hasOptedInToPreprint\":true,\"hasPassedJournalQc\":\"\",\"hasAnyPriority\":false,\"hideJournal\":false,\"highlight\":\"\",\"institution\":\"\",\"isAcceptedByJournal\":false,\"isAuthorSuppliedPdf\":true,\"isDeskRejected\":\"\",\"isHiddenFromSearch\":false,\"isInQc\":false,\"isInWorkflow\":false,\"isPdf\":true,\"isPdfUpToDate\":true,\"isWithdrawnOrRetracted\":false,\"journal\":{\"display\":true,\"email\":\"info@researchsquare.com\",\"identity\":\"discover-environment\",\"isNatureJournal\":false,\"hasQc\":true,\"allowDirectSubmit\":false,\"externalIdentity\":\"\",\"sideBox\":\"Learn more about [Discover Environment](https://www.springer.com/44274/)\",\"snPcode\":\"44274\",\"submissionUrl\":\"https://submission.nature.com/new-submission/44274/3\",\"title\":\"Discover Environment\",\"twitterHandle\":\"\",\"acdcEnabled\":true,\"dfaEnabled\":true,\"editorialSystem\":\"stoa\",\"reportingPortfolio\":\"Discover Series\",\"inReviewEnabled\":true,\"inReviewRevisionsEnabled\":true},\"keywords\":\"Disturbed Equilibrium Theory (DET), Ecosystem collapse, Environmental resilience, Human–nature interaction, Sustainability governance, Early-Warning\",\"lastPublishedDoi\":\"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8388436/v1\",\"lastPublishedDoiUrl\":\"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8388436/v1\",\"license\":{\"name\":\"CC BY 4.0\",\"url\":\"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/\"},\"manuscriptAbstract\":\"\\u003cp\\u003eEnvironmental crises\\u0026mdash;ranging from shrinking lakes and land subsidence to coral bleaching and floods\\u0026mdash;are increasingly recognized as \\u003cem\\u003esystemic reactions\\u003c/em\\u003e of ecosystems to persistent human and climatic pressures. 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