{"paper_id":"41bfe701-e439-4f2a-a7fd-6d684da85dc8","body_text":"Policy impact in technology growth models of solar PV and onshore wind power | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Policy impact in technology growth models of solar PV and onshore wind power Nik Zielonka, Evelina Trutnevyte This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7836240/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Policies are key to accelerate the uptake of new energy technologies, but current growth models of technology diffusion fail to represent policies in forward-looking assessments and decision-making. Here, we propose a method to integrate policies into probabilistic modeling with six growth models, validate this method with out-of-sample testing, and demonstrate it on solar photovoltaics and onshore wind power in 40 European countries. We show that parametric integration of policies can improve the out-of-sample accuracy of probabilistic projections for most countries and models, while policy in early years of technology diffusion is the most decisive. Looking forward until 2040, an increase or decrease in policy efforts compared to today has limited effect on the projections of solar photovoltaics and onshore wind power in Europe though. This supports the view that weaker policies at this stage do not harm much, but stronger policies can be insufficient for targets in several countries either. Social science/Environmental studies Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change/Climate-change mitigation Social science/Economics Physical sciences/Energy science and technology/Renewable energy/Solar energy/Photovoltaics/Solar cells Physical sciences/Energy science and technology/Renewable energy/Wind energy Technology diffusion policy growth model model evaluation probabilistic projections solar PV wind power Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Supplementary Files 20250111SIPolicyProjZielonkaTrutnevyte.pdf Supplementary Information: Policy impact in technology growth models of solar PV and onshore wind power Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. 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