{"paper_id":"39ce0063-cd4b-4cca-8f02-1824c641b280","body_text":"Financial Inclusion, Public Health Expenditure, and Infant Mortality in Nigeria: Evidence from a Toda–Yamamoto Causality Approach | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Financial Inclusion, Public Health Expenditure, and Infant Mortality in Nigeria: Evidence from a Toda–Yamamoto Causality Approach Karel Malec, Stanislav Rojík, Mansoor Maitah, Sagir Muhammad Sulaiman, and 7 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8521251/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Financial inclusion has become a central policy tool for promoting economic development and improving household welfare in developing countries. However, its direct impact on population health particularly infant mortality remains underexplored in the Nigerian context. Theoretical evidence suggests that improved access to financial services enhances health outcomes by increasing households’ ability to finance medical care, smooth consumption, and manage health shocks. This study examines the causal relationship between financial inclusion and health outcomes in Nigeria. The study employs annual time-series data and applies the Toda–Yamamoto modified Wald causality approach, which allows for robust causality testing without relying on strict assumptions about the order of integration and cointegration. Measures of financial inclusion include bank branch density, deposit account penetration, and formal financial access, while infant mortality serves as the primary health outcome. Preliminary unit-root and lag-length selection tests were conducted, and an augmented VAR in levels was estimated before conducting modified Wald causality tests. The study findings reveal a unidirectional causal relationship from financial inclusion to infant mortalit y , indicating that improvements in financial accessibility significantly reduce infant mortality rates. The results suggest that enhanced financial capability enables households to invest in maternal and child healthcare, improve nutrition, and access preventive medical services. No significant reverse causality was detected from infant mortality to financial inclusion. The study concludes that financial inclusion serves as a key socioeconomic determinant of health outcomes in Nigeria. Strengthening financial inclusion particularly through expanded digital financial services, increased banking penetration, and targeted outreach to underserved populations can contribute meaningfully to improving health indicators such as infant mortality. Policymakers are encouraged to integrate financial inclusion strategies into national public health planning to accelerate progress toward sustainable development goals related to health and well-being. Financial Inclusion Infant Mortality Health Outcomes Toda–Yamamoto Causality Nigeria Time-Series Analysis Social Determinants of Health Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {\"props\":{\"pageProps\":{\"initialData\":{\"identity\":\"rs-8521251\",\"acceptedTermsAndConditions\":true,\"allowDirectSubmit\":true,\"archivedVersions\":[],\"articleType\":\"Research Article\",\"associatedPublications\":[],\"authors\":[{\"id\":610664523,\"identity\":\"3baac82c-6263-4004-bc0e-8d92a4cd2e83\",\"order_by\":0,\"name\":\"Karel Malec\",\"email\":\"\",\"orcid\":\"\",\"institution\":\"Czech University of Life Sciences Prague\",\"correspondingAuthor\":false,\"prefix\":\"\",\"firstName\":\"Karel\",\"middleName\":\"\",\"lastName\":\"Malec\",\"suffix\":\"\"},{\"id\":610664524,\"identity\":\"468ee643-5f1a-4322-acae-1a90ae83b554\",\"order_by\":1,\"name\":\"Stanislav 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However, its direct impact on population health particularly infant mortality remains underexplored in the Nigerian context. Theoretical evidence suggests that improved access to financial services enhances health outcomes by increasing households\\u0026rsquo; ability to finance medical care, smooth consumption, and manage health shocks. This study examines the causal relationship between financial inclusion and health outcomes in Nigeria. The study employs annual time-series data and applies the Toda\\u0026ndash;Yamamoto modified Wald causality approach, which allows for robust causality testing without relying on strict assumptions about the order of integration and cointegration. Measures of financial inclusion include bank branch density, deposit account penetration, and formal financial access, while infant mortality serves as the primary health outcome. Preliminary unit-root and lag-length selection tests were conducted, and an augmented VAR in levels was estimated before conducting modified Wald causality tests. The study findings reveal a unidirectional causal relationship from financial inclusion to infant mortalit\\u003cb\\u003ey\\u003c/b\\u003e, indicating that improvements in financial accessibility significantly reduce infant mortality rates. The results suggest that enhanced financial capability enables households to invest in maternal and child healthcare, improve nutrition, and access preventive medical services. No significant reverse causality was detected from infant mortality to financial inclusion. The study concludes that financial inclusion serves as a key socioeconomic determinant of health outcomes in Nigeria. 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