{"paper_id":"388a0048-aec8-4642-ad46-e75b8e7e25f3","body_text":"Disciplining Ballots? – (Un-intended) Effects of Voter Engagement on the Fiscal Sustainability of Swiss Cantons | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Disciplining Ballots? – (Un-intended) Effects of Voter Engagement on the Fiscal Sustainability of Swiss Cantons Yannick Bury, Lars P. Feld, Ekkehard A. Köhler This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-3884955/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract We test whether the proactive use of instruments of direct democracy by voters can help to explain fiscal sustainability of 25 Swiss cantons. Using data of all cantonal popular votes since 1977, our results show that the fiscal reaction of cantonal governments to an increase in the debt to GDP ratio of a canton is stronger, the more cantonal voters actively made use of their direct democratic rights in the previous year. JEL Codes: H11 H50 D72 Direct Democracy Political Process Fiscal Policy Figures Figure 1 Figure 2 1. Introduction Enabling voters to influence policy between elections through direct popular rights is most common in Switzerland and the United States. In other countries and federations, direct democracy also experienced a surge in recent years. On national levels the “Brexit” vote in the United Kingdom as well as popular votes on structural reforms in Greece and Italy are examples for electorates unveiling distinctly different preferences than their governments, inducing major policy changes (Matsusaka 2020 ). On the subnational level, direct popular rights are even more common and growing across countries (Qvortrup 2021 ), although there is also direct democratic backsliding in the U.S. (Matsusaka 2023 ). Several studies show that policy outcomes come closer to the preferences of the median voter if voters can directly influence political decisions (Gerber 1999 , Matsusaka 2010 ). Regarding fiscal policies, existing evidence shows that this leads to lower levels of public spending and public revenues (Matsusaka 2018 ). But does this mean that an electorate that directly influences fiscal policy is also enhancing the sustainability of public finances? According to existing evidence, this answer depends on the instrument of direct democracy used. While fiscal referendums serve as a veto instrument preventing additional public spending (Feld and Matsusaka 2003 , Funk and Gathmann 2011 ), popular initiatives may increase or decrease public spending (Matsusaka 1995 , 2000 for the U.S., Asatryan et al. 2017 for Germany) and therefore have different impacts on fiscal sustainability. Moreover, theoretically, the impact of direct democracy on fiscal sustainability may depend on citizens' fiscal preferences. If voters influence the government’s fiscal policy directly, they may opt for deficit financing when they are fiscally less conservative than their elected representatives (see the seminal paper by Peltzman 1992 ). However, even with a fiscally conservative electorate, sustainability of public finances can be at risk if spending preferences of voters are higher than their preferences for public revenues. In this paper, we study the case of 25 Swiss cantons from 1977 to 2017 and link existing theoretical considerations on the fiscal effects of direct democracy (Romer and Rosenthal 1979 , Gerber 1996 , Matsusaka and McCarty 2001 , Besley and Coate 2008 ) to the concept of fiscal sustainability outlined by Bohn ( 1995 , 1998 ). We collect data on the popular votes that are triggered by the electorate and not by the government as our measure for the extent to which cantonal electorates proactively use their direct democratic rights. We estimate whether the number of these votes influences the fiscal reaction of the government to an increased debt to GDP ratio, while controlling for time-variant fiscal preferences of voters within each canton. Our main finding is that, while cantonal governments run sustainable fiscal policies through increasing their primary surpluses after an increase in the canton’s debt to GDP ratio, this fiscal reaction to increasing debt is significantly stronger the more cantonal voters actively make use of their direct democratic rights in the previous year. Thus, part of this fiscal reaction can be explained by the engagement of voters. Our estimates indicate that with every additional popular vote triggered by the electorate, cantonal governments increase their fiscal reaction to rising debt to GDP ratios by 0.01 to 0.02 percentage points of cantonal GDP in the year following the vote. We show that this effect comes via increased revenues and is driven by those votes that are not successful. This supports the theoretical reasoning of Matsusaka ( 2014 ) who shows that the threat of becoming confronted with a popular vote is already changing government policy. Our paper contributes to the literature on the fiscal consequences of direct democracy in two ways. First, instead of focusing on the levels of fiscal outcomes such as expenditures, revenues, deficits and debt this paper is, to the best of our knowledge, the first that investigates the effect of direct democracy on fiscal reaction behavior and, thus, on fiscal sustainability . Second, most of the existing studies that investigate the fiscal effects of direct democracy are interested in the effect that different direct democratic institutions by themselves exert on fiscal outcomes. In this paper, we ask whether the extent to which voters actively make use of their existing direct democratic rights affects fiscal policy. Besides the literature on direct democracy, we contribute to the literature on fiscal sustainability, as we are the first to show that the use of direct democratic rights explains parts of cantonal fiscal reactions to increased debt and, thus, sustainable fiscal policies of Swiss Cantons. 2. Population-Triggered Direct Democracy and Fiscal Policy There are three institutional ways as to how a particular decision may arrive at the ballot (Matsusaka 2018 ). The first is a mandatory referendum. A mandatory referendum is a public vote on a governmental policy that is required by law. A common example of a mandatory referendum is the fiscal referendum, i.e., that an expenditure project of the government needs the approval of the electorate if it exceeds a certain expenditure threshold. The second institution is the optional referendum or “petition-referendum” (Matsusaka 2018 ). In an optional referendum, voters can approve or deny a policy of the government if they are successful to collect a sufficient number of signatures constitutionally required to trigger the referendum in the first place. If the government calls a referendum by its own initiative, e.g., in order to seek the support of voters for a particular decision, this type of referendum is called a plebiscite. The third institution of direct democratic decision-making is the popular initiative. Different to the mandatory and the optional referendum, in an initiative, voters do not vote on a policy set by the government. Instead, the policy that comes to the ballot is proposed by a certain fraction of the electorate collecting a constitutionally required number of signatures to put their own policy proposal to the ballot. These three instruments for the participation of voters in political decision-making can be separated along two lines. Matsusaka ( 2018 ) refers to the agenda setting power and differs between the referendum where the government sets the agenda and the initiative where agenda setting moves to the electorate. A second way to categorize these institutions propose here is to differentiate between the trigger of the vote. While the mandatory referendum and the plebiscite are triggered either by law or by the government (top-down), the petition referendum and the initiative are triggered by the electorate (bottom-up). As we are interested in the degree to which voters proactively make use of their direct democratic rights, we use this latter categorization. Thus, we use the number of petition-referendums and initiatives that appear at the ballots as our main empirical measure for the alertness of the electorate. 2.1 Theoretical Differences between Petition Referendum and Initiative Gerber ( 1996 ), Matsusaka and McCarty ( 2001 ) and Matsusaka ( 1995 , 2018 ) show that the initiative and the petition referendum differ theoretically in the way the two institutions shift the policies of the government towards the preferences of the median voter. In particular, the initiative should bring policy closer to the preferences of the median voter than the petition referendum because of the shift in the agenda setting power from the government to the voters that call the initiative. First, transferring agenda setting to the voters shifts a policy that constitutes the alternative to the status quo from the government’s preferred policy to that of the median voter. Second, with an initiative, voters can induce a stronger or a weaker policy than the government proposes, while a referendum is a veto instrument only effectively binding the government if the median voter prefers a weaker policy than the government. To illustrate this, consider the government plans to raise taxes. A petition-referendum would only constrain the government if the median voter prefers lower taxes than the government. If the median voter preferred higher taxes than the government, voters would not reject the proposal of the government as they prefer the proposal of the government over the status quo. With the initiative at hands, voters could propose lower as well as higher taxes than the government and shift policy in both directions. Therefore, the initiative offers voters broader opportunities to restrain government than the petition-referendum. This does not mean that the petition-referendum is not prone to restrain the government in its fiscal policy, as the government does usually not know what the preferences of the median voter are (Matsusaka and McCarty 2001 ). Thus, if a petition-referendum comes to the ballot, the government will not know whether its policy will eventually be confirmed or rejected. Although offering less possibilities to bring policy closer to median voter’s preferences than the initiative, voters who actively use the petition-referendum can still induce major changes in the policy of the government and use the petition-referendum to exert harming or enhancing effects on the sustainability of public finances depending on the original government proposal. Hence, both institutions through which voters can proactively exert direct influence on policy decisions can effectively restrain the government, change the behavior of representatives and enhance or harm fiscal sustainability. 2.2 Direct Effects How can referendums and initiatives change fiscal policy? The obvious channel through which direct democracy influences public finances are its direct effects. A direct effect occurs, if representatives propose policies that differ from the preferences of voters (Matsusaka 2014 ). In such a case, voters can proactively use either the initiative or the petition referendum and change or reject the government’s policy. Matsusaka ( 2014 ) argues that identifying this direct effect is not simple for the initiative. To exert a direct fiscal effect, an initiative that was adopted needs to induce another policy than the one that would have prevailed without the initiative. In other words: To infer the direct effect of an adopted initiative, it needs to be ensured that without the initiative, another policy would have prevailed (Matsusaka 2014 ). Moreover, it needs to be ensured that the policy the initiative calls upon comes into effect and is not challenged by a court ruling or a lack of enforcement (Gerber et al. 2001 , Kousser et al. 2008 , Matsusaka 2014 ). 2.3 Indirect Effects More important than the direct effects of the two proactive direct democratic institutions are the indirect effects that they exert on the government’s policies. As Matsusaka ( 2018 , p. 118) argues: Policy may change not because voters approve a proposition, but because the threat of a proposition causes the government to choose a different policy. Put differently, the initiative and referendum matter simply by being available, even if they are not used. Thus, the government may change its policy only based on the expectation that a proactive electorate could challenge or amend it. In fact, in game-theoretic models it is only this “threat”-effect which is at work. Under complete information about the preferences of the median voter the government will always proactively change its policy in order to deter a petition-referendum or an initiative (Gerber 1996 ; Matsusaka and McCarty 2001 ; Matsusaka 2014 ). Besides this “threat”-effect, there are two other indirect effects of the initiative and the referendum which are important for our investigation. Boehmke ( 2005 ) and Boehmke and Bowen ( 2010 ) argue that the possibility to proactively exert influence on policy creates incentives for the formation of interest groups. Even if their policy proposals fail at the ballots, these groups influence representatives via lobbying, PR-activities or campaign contributions. In the context of this paper, this is one of the channels through which an increased use of direct popular rights could induce a worsening of fiscal sustainability, as low barriers to such rights could give small but well-organized interest groups political overrepresentation resulting in an exploitation of common fiscal resources (the fiscal commons problem). Most empirical evidence, however, shows that increased participation is associated with less and not more spending (Feld and Kirchgässner 2001 , Feld et al. 2010 , Funk and Gathmann 2011 ). That increased direct participation of voters in decision-making can improve policy outcomes is also supported by Smith and Tolbert ( 2004 ). They show that an increased number of initiatives can have educative effects on the electorate (Matsusaka 2014 ). Being confronted with election campaigns regularly improves the knowledge of voters and enables them to hold their representatives accountable in a more effective way than uninformed voters could. Facing a tighter control, governments then pursue policies that are closer to the preferences of the electorate. Empirical evidence indicates that these indirect effects of the initiative and the referendum are severely larger than the direct effects (Matsusaka 2014 ). Therefore, Matsusaka ( 2018 ) highlights that it is not possible to measure the entire effect of the two institutions by only looking at the votes that appear at the ballots. Instead, the crucial point that influences policy is that representatives expect that voters will challenge or amend the government’s policy. However, the expectations of the government that voters will use their direct democratic tools proactively may increase, if voters showed to be alert in the past. We use the example of the Swiss cantons to investigate whether governments change their fiscal policy in a way that enhances or worsens sustainability when the government has to expect that voters will intervene into its policy because they showed to be alert in the past. 3. Institutional Background and Previous Findings Switzerland provides for an interesting example of direct democracy. The constitutions of Swiss Cantons to different degrees stipulate mandatory and optional referendums as well as initiatives to involve voters in cantonal decision-making. Thus, the cantons use all of the three direct democratic instruments described above. In the context of this paper, we focus on the two bottom-up instruments which are the petition (optional) referendum and the popular initiative. In 2020, all cantonal constitutions offer the possibility to call a petition-referendum to challenge the policy of a canton’s government. If voters collect signatures exceeding a threshold, the referendum is put to the ballot. In addition to the signature requirement, regarding fiscal referendums, some cantons implement spending thresholds. Both thresholds must be exceeded in order to bring a petition-referendum to the ballots. The second bottom-up instrument, the popular initiative, is also widely available in the cantons. With the initiative, voters can propose an entirely new law. Regarding public spending, the initiative offers a possibility to challenge projects of the government that fail to exceed the spending threshold for a petition-referendum (Feld and Matsusaka 2003 ). To bring an initiative to the ballots, the initiators need to collect a predetermined number of signatures. The higher the signature requirement is, the harder it gets for the electorate to challenge or amend government policy. Figure 1 shows, that voters in the cantons widely use their tools to engage in cantonal policy and to interfere with their governments. However, the use of the instruments varies between the cantons. During the past 40 years, the voters in Zurich showed to be most active, bringing on average four votes per year to the ballots. The least number of votes are called in Grisons, where voters on average only call for a vote once every two years. According to the empirical literature, both the referendum and the initiative have effects on cantonal fiscal policy. Existing evidence shows that referendums on fiscal policy issues lead to lower cantonal expenditures (Feld and Matsusaka 2003 ; Funk and Gathmann 2011 , 2013 ) and revenues (Feld and Kirchgässner 2001 , 2007 ; Schaltegger 2002 ; Freitag and Vatter 2006 ). However, as revenues are reduced slightly more than expenditures, the existing evidence shows that the referendum has at best none (Schaltegger 2002 ; Feld and Kirchgässner 2007 ) or even increasing (Feld and Kirchgässner 2001 ) effects on cantonal deficits. Although these studies do not report deficit-reducing effects of fiscal referendums, they find that fiscal referendums are associated with lower public debt. This could be the outcome of accounting provisions leading to stock-flow adjustments, i.e., some fiscal operations are not included in the budgetary accounts but are included in the net asset calculation. Kirchgässner ( 2013 ) offers another explanation and argues that public debt is lower in the presence of referendums because fiscal referendums are institutions that are constant over time, showing rather long-run effects on debt than short-run effects on deficits. A third explanation is provided by Feld and Kirchgässner ( 2005 ) who argue that fiscal referendums are prone to limit the overall volumes of the public budget. Thus, even if deficits are increased, the amounts of accumulated deficits are lower if the overall budget is lower. Figure 1: Number of Population-Triggered Votes in the Swiss Cantons 1977–2017 Source Own depiction based on Center for Democracy Studies Aarau. For the initiative, existing empirical results are similar. Feld and Matsusaka ( 2003 ) find that lower signature requirements to launch an initiative are associated with lower cantonal spending. Funk and Gathmann ( 2011 ) confirm this result, however with a smaller magnitude. That lower barriers to initiatives also induce revenue-reducing effects is shown by Freitag and Vatter ( 2006 ) and Funk and Gathmann ( 2011 ). A different effect of the initiative is found by Burret and Feld ( 2018 ) presenting evidence that lower thresholds to launch an initiative are associated with more spending and revenue of cantons. Taken together, existing evidence on the initiative and the referendum shows effects on spending and revenues, while most of the papers find reducing effects on both. There is, however, no clear pattern which side of the budget is changed more and, thus, how these tools may help to explain the long-run sustainability of cantonal public finances. 4. Linking Fiscal Sustainability and Direct Democracy Theoretically, an analysis of the sustainability of public finances starts with the intertemporal budget constraint of the government according to which the outstanding debt to GDP ratio \\({d}_{0}\\) has to equal all future discounted primary surpluses plus the discounted future debt to GDP ratio (Bohn 2008 ): $${d}_{0}= - \\sum _{t=1}^{\\infty }{\\left(\\frac{1+y}{1+r}\\right)}^{t} {p}_{t}+ \\underset{{T }\\to { \\infty }}{\\text{lim}}{\\left(\\frac{1+y}{1+r}\\right)}^{T} {d}_{T}$$ 1 In order to meet the intertemporal budget constraint, two conditions must be met. According to the first expression on the right-hand-side of Eq. 1, today’s debt to GDP ratio \\({d}_{0}\\) has to equal all discounted future primary surpluses \\({p}_{t}\\) , with y depicting the growth rate of real GDP and r the real interest rate. The second expression on the right-hand-side of Eq. 1 is the transversality or “no-Ponzi” condition requiring that the discounted debt to GDP ratio \\({d}_{T}\\) has to converge to zero if the number of years t approaches infinity. Empirical approaches to assess debt sustainability pick up these two theoretical conditions. To analyze the sustainability of decentralized public finances in Switzerland and the effects that an alert electorate may have on it, we estimate fiscal reaction functions of the cantons following Bohn ( 2008 ). Estimating the government’s fiscal reaction to an increase in its debt to GDP ratio is straightforward in order to assess the sustainability of public finances (Bohn 1996, 2007 , 2008 ). The theoretical reasoning behind this approach is that if the government did not react to an increased debt to GDP ratio by adapting its primary surplus in the subsequent year, its debt stock would continue to rise as t approaches infinity and thus fiscal sustainability could not be ensured (Bohn 2008 ). In this case, the government would violate its intertemporal budget constraint (Bohn 1995 , D’Erasmo et al. 2016, Feld et al. 2020 ). Note, that this approach requires that both the debt stock and the primary surplus are expressed in terms of GDP to encounter the effects of GDP fluctuations on the sustainability of a jurisdiction’s public finances. Moreover, to consider the effects of interest rate fluctuations on fiscal sustainability, it is the primary surplus that needs to be included as dependent variable in the empirical analysis. 4.1 Empirical Framework Given these considerations, our approach to assess the sustainability of cantonal public finances is to estimate a fiscal reaction function (FRF) for the cantons that takes the form $${Primary Surplus}_{ i,t}= \\rho {Public Debt}_{i, t-1}+ \\beta {Controls}_{ i, t}+ {Primary Surplus}_{ i,t-1}+ {\\delta }_{i}+ {u}_{i, t}$$ 1 where the dependent variable is the primary surplus of canton i in relation to GDP in year t . Our key explanatory variable is the canton’s debt to GDP ratio of the previous year t-1 . The coefficient of interest is ρ which indicates whether cantonal politicians adapt the budget balance after the cantonal debt increased (Bohn 1998 ). A positive and significant coefficient indicates that politicians react to an increase in the debt to GDP ratio by increasing the canton’s primary surplus in the subsequent year. In this case, a canton’s intertemporal budget constraint would be fulfilled. To estimate whether the extent to which voters use their direct democratic rights explains part of the fiscal reaction of the government, we add an interaction term of our reaction coefficient and the number of population-triggered votes that took place in the canton in the previous year. Thus, we amend our baseline equation in the following way $${Primary Surplus}_{ i,t}= \\rho {Public Debt}_{i, t-1}+ \\alpha {Number of Votes }_{i, t-1}+$$ $$\\gamma {Public Debt}_{i, t-1}*{Number of Votes}_{i,t-1 }+ \\beta {Controls}_{ i, t}+ { Primary Surplus}_{ i,t-1}+ {\\delta }_{i}+ {u}_{i, t}$$ 2 Our coefficient of interest now is γ , indicating whether the number of referendums and initiatives that were effectively triggered by the electorate in the previous year has an effect on the slope of the government’s FRF and thus, on its reaction to an increase in the debt to GDP ratio. A positive and significant γ indicates an increased slope of the cantonal FRF and, thus, a stronger fiscal reaction due to the number of population-triggered votes. We include canton-fixed effects \\({\\delta }_{i}\\) in our regression estimating the effects of a changing number of population-triggered votes within each canton and use a generalized difference-in-differences approach for identification (Burret and Feld 2018 ). We include two additional explanatory variables to control for variations in the primary surplus caused by the business cycle or by other events that would cause extraordinary public spending. We follow Bohn ( 2008 ), Mendoza and Ostry ( 2008 ) and Feld et al. ( 2020 ) and include explanatory variables taken from the closed solution of Barro’s tax smoothing model (Barro 1981 , 1986 ) that reflect temporary fluctuations in output (YVAR) and spending (GVAR) taking the following form $${YVAR}_{i,t}=\\left(1- \\frac{{Y}_{t}}{{Y}_{t}^{T}}\\right)* \\frac{{G}_{t}^{T}}{{Y}_{t}}$$ 3a $${GVAR}_{i,t}= \\frac{({G}_{t}- {G}_{t}^{T})}{{Y}_{t}^{T}}$$ 3b where \\({Y}_{t}\\) stands for cantonal imputed GDP and \\({G}_{t}\\) for cantonal expenditures. \\({Y}_{t}^{T}\\) and \\({G}_{t}^{T}\\) are the respective trend variables which are calculated using a standard Hodrick-Prescott (1997) filter using a smoothing parameter of 100 (Feld et al. 2020 ). Fiscal policy is persistent (Claeys 2006 ). This is why Feld et al. ( 2020 ) and Theofilakou and Stournaras ( 2012 ) argue that a lagged dependent variable should be included when FRF are estimated over a long period to control for unobserved persistence that would otherwise lead to omitted variable bias. An additional reason why controlling for persistency is important are fiscal preferences. Schaltegger ( 2002 ), Krogstrup and Wälti ( 2008 ) and Funk and Gathmann ( 2011 , 2013 ) argue that fiscal preferences of the electorate may lead to an endogeneity problem if they influence the engagement of voters and the primary surplus simultaneously. Therefore, including a lagged dependent variable in combination with canton-fixed effects serves as a first control for persistency and unobserved fiscal preferences. 4.2 Data Our panel dataset covers 25 of the 26 Swiss cantons over the period between 1977 and 2017, which gives us 1,025 observations. Data for cantonal debt to GDP ratios, revenues, expenditures and interest spending comes from the Swiss Federal Statistical Office and the cantonal public finance reports. We impute cantonal GDP by weighting national GDP based on cantonal population numbers. Thus, we assume identical per-capita productivity within and across cantons. Although this is a strong assumption, we opted for this procedure due to the limitations of cantonal GDP data which stems from insufficient cantonal export and import data. Fiscal data for the aggregate of the 25 cantons is depicted in Fig. 2. Source Own depiction based on Swiss Federal Federal Statistics Office. Data on referendums and initiatives within each canton is taken from the “Database on Citizen’s Initiatives” provided by the Center for Democracy Studies Aarau. This database contains information on all initiatives and petition-referendums on the cantonal level that came to the ballot since 1976. Using this dataset, we are able to analyze the effects of 1,634 population-triggered votes on fiscal sustainability in 25 cantons over a 40 years period. We can separate these votes into 824 petition-referendums, 735 initiatives and 75 cantonal assemblies. For the period since 1986, the database provides complete additional information on the turnout and results of all votes. Thus, for the 30 years period between 1987 and 2017 we can estimate whether a vote successfully influenced policy. 4.3 Estimator Reaching from urban Zurich to rural Grisons, from wealthy Zug to economically-weak Uri, the 25 cantons are structurally and politically diverse. This diversity is likely to cause not one uniform, but 25 heterogenous fiscal reaction functions. To account for this heterogeneity, we follow Feld et al. ( 2020 ) and use Pesaran’s Common Correlated Effects Mean Group (CCEMG) estimator (Pesaran 2004 , 2006 ) for our panel estimations of cantonal fiscal policy. The CCEMG-estimator amends for every canton i all variables with the cross-sectional means of the N-i other cantons as further explanatory variables. The mean group itself then reflects the average effect of all canton-individual estimates, yielding the estimate for the panel as a whole. Conceptually, this procedure is equivalent to a two-way fixed-effects estimation and thus a generalized difference in differences approach. However, CCEMG-estimates go beyond the simple inclusion of canton and time fixed effects. Instead, the estimator allows for multiple slopes of cantonal fiscal reaction functions through controlling for time-invariant canton-individual unobservables while it simultaneously allows for time-variant unobserved common factors and, thus, for cross-cantonal correlations such as the economic downturn in the 1990s or following the year 2008. 5. Results Results for the estimated fiscal reaction function of the Swiss cantons are reported in Table 1. We find a positive significant reaction of cantonal fiscal policy on an increase in the cantonal debt to GDP ratio for the period since 1977. This indicates that cantonal governments service the intertemporal budget constraint by increasing their primary surplus after experiencing an increase in their canton’s debt to GDP ratio. The lagged primary surplus is statistically and economically highly significant which is evidence in favor of our hypothesis of persistency in cantonal fiscal policies. Besides fluctuations in output and expenditures, existing evidence shows that fiscal rules exert effects on the budget balance of the cantons. Therefore, it could be the case that fiscal reactions are triggered by the introduction of fiscal rules and not by increases in the debt to GDP ratio. In column 3 we include the fiscal rule index of Burret and Feld ( 2018 ) as additional control variable that could influence the primary surplus. We find a positive effect of fiscal rules on the primary surplus. However, our fiscal reaction coefficient remains positive and statistically significant. 5.1 Effects of Referendums and Initiatives on Fiscal Reactions The estimates of fiscal reaction of Swiss cantons to an increase in their debt to GDP ratios show that the cantons run sustainable fiscal policies. They react to an increase in their debt to GDP ratios by increasing their primary surpluses. In columns 3 and 7, we include an interaction term between the lagged debt to GDP ratio of a canton and the number of popular votes that have been triggered by the electorate in the previous year. We continue to find a positive fiscal reaction coefficient and, thus, evidence in favor of fiscal sustainability if we amend our model regarding the effects of a proactive electorate. Table 1 Baseline Effect of Bottom-up Votes on the Fiscal Reaction Function of Cantonal Governments 1977–2017 1987–2017 (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) Lagged Debt 0.025** (0.012) 0.048** (0.022) 0.046* (0.026) 0.065** (0.029) 0.071*** (0.017) 0.123*** (0.028) 0.093*** (0.034) 0.152*** (0.035) Lagged Debt*No. of Bottom-up Votes 0.008* (0.005) 0.010** (0.004) 0.019*** (0.006) 0.017** (0.008) Number of Bottom-up Votes -0.001** (0.000) -0.001*** (0.000) -0.002*** (0.001) -0.002*** (0.001) YVAR 2.345*** (0.795) 1.596** (0.724) 1.212* (0.713) 0.760 (0.703) 1.739** (0.691) 0.723 (0.902) -0.155 (0.951) 0.475 (0.739) GVAR -0.780*** (0.240) -0.835*** (0.222) -0.790*** (0.208) -0.755*** (0.202) -1.181*** (0.331) -1.158*** (0.292) -1.126*** (0.287) -1.210*** (0.343) Primary Surplus (t-1) 0.260*** (0.044) 0.888*** (0.134) 0.140*** (0.048) 0.077 (0.049) 0.214*** (0.047) 0.093** (0.042) 0.069 (0.048) 0.018 (0.037) Fiscal Rule Index 0.002* (0.001) 0.002** (0.001) 0.002* (0.001) 0.001 (0.001) 0.002* (0.001) 0.001 (0.002) Squared change of debt 0.066 (0.313) 1.364* (0.787) F-Test: Joint Sign. of Bottom-up Votes 4.47** 6.73*** 11.39*** 12.18*** CSA Controls Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Cantons 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 Years 41 41 41 41 31 31 31 31 N 1,025 1,025 1,025 1,025 775 775 775 775 Dependent variable: Primary Surplus relative to imputed cantonal GDP. Effects are estimated with Pesaran’s ( 2006 ) CCEMG estimator that controls for cross-sectional-dependence and time variant unobservables with heterogenous impact across panels. We use the Stata routine xtmg. F-Test of joint significance show Chi2 coefficients and indicate the joint effects of lagged debt and number of bottom-up votes and the interaction of both. This indicates that even if the electorate is not using its direct popular rights, the cantons run sustainable fiscal policies. This does, however, not mean that we could rule out an effect of direct democratic institutions on fiscal reactions. As shown by Matsusaka ( 2014 , 2018 ), even if the direct democratic provisions are not used by the electorate, they can have an effect on fiscal policy by exerting a “threat”-effect only because they are available and could be used potentially. However, the question we are interested in is: Does this “threat”-effect increase, if the direct democratic institutions are indeed used? The interaction between the number of votes triggered by the electorate and the lagged debt to GDP ratio is positive and statistically significant, while the fiscal reaction coefficient becomes smaller compared to the model without the interaction term. Therefore, our results show that parts of the fiscal reaction to increased debt to GDP ratios can be explained by the number of population-triggered votes that came to the ballot in the previous year. Our estimations indicate that with every population-triggered vote that arrived at the ballot, cantonal governments increased their primary surplus by additional 0.008 to 0.019 percentage points of imputed cantonal GDP to counteract an increase in their debt to GDP ratio. In 2017, this would correspond to a per capita increase in a canton’s primary surplus of 6 to 15 Swiss franc per ballot. In columns 4 and 8 we include the squared deviation of cantonal debt from its mean in order to consider non-linearities in debt development. Our results on cantonal fiscal sustainability and of the effect of an alert electorate on fiscal reactions of governments hold, now indicating an additional fiscal reaction to increased debt of 0.010 to 0.017 percentage points of imputed GDP for every population-triggered vote. 5.2 Considering Time-Variant Expenditure Preferences Funk and Gathmann ( 2011 , 2013 ) find smaller effects of direct democratic institutions on cantonal fiscal outcomes if they include fiscal preferences of the electorate into their empirical analysis. They show that fiscal preferences of voters vary considerably between the cantons and are systematically correlated with fiscal institutions. In particular, they find that voters in cantons with strong direct democratic institutions are fiscally more conservative than voters in cantons with weaker direct democratic provisions. For our analysis, these findings imply that not sufficiently accounting for the fiscal preferences of the electorate could lead to an omitted variable bias. Cantons with stronger direct democratic institutions impose lower barriers for the electorate to trigger popular votes, while the number of votes that come to the ballots is higher in cantons with low barriers to call a vote. Thus, our estimates of the effects of an alert electorate could simply reflect differing fiscal preferences between the cantons’ electorates if we did not sufficiently account for them. One possibility to incorporate fiscal preferences of voters into the analysis of cantonal fiscal policy proposed by Funk and Gathmann ( 2011 , 2013 ) is to include canton-fixed effects into the estimated model. This is one of the reasons why we use the CCEMG-estimator that attains its panel estimate out of 25 canton-individual estimation effects and accounts for time-invariant unobserved heterogeneity of the cantons, such as fiscal preferences. Conceptually, this is equivalent to an inclusion of canton fixed effects. Table 2 Effect of Bottom-up Votes on the Fiscal Reaction Function of Cantonal Governments including Expenditure Preferences 1977–2017 1987–2017 Time Trend Preferences Variable Time Trend Preferences Variable (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) Lagged Debt 0.043 (0.031) 0.077** (0.035) 0.054** (0.027) 0.070** (0.030) 0.081** (0.036) 0.140*** (0.038) 0.103*** (0.032) 0.156*** (0.038) Lagged Debt*No. of Bottom-up Votes 0.010** (0.005) 0.011* (0.006) 0.008** (0.004) 0.011** (0.004) 0.023*** (0.008) 0.022** (0.010) 0.019*** (0.007) 0.018** (0.009) Number of Bottom-up Votes -0.001** (0.000) -0.001** (0.000) -0.001** (0.000) -0.001*** (0.000) -0.002*** (0.008) -0.002*** (0.001) -0.002** (0.001) -0.002** (0.001) YVAR 1.056 (0.702) 0.847 (0.702) 1.287* (0.774) 0.722 (0.699) -0.237 (1.305) 0.086 (0.808) -0.099 (0.921) 0.768 (0.838) GVAR -0.799*** (0.216) -0.759*** (0.204) -0.820*** (0.232) -0.767*** (0.219) -1.129*** (0.278) -1.177*** (0.309) -1.132*** (0.302) -1.169*** (0.341) Primary Surplus (t-1) 0.088** (0.041) 0.018 (0.006) 0.147*** (0.047) 0.073 (0.052) 0.005 (0.040) -0.038 (0.043) 0.073 (0.051) 0.018 (0.043) Fiscal Rule Index 0.003* (0.001) 0.002 (0.002) 0.003** (0.001) 0.003* (0.001) 0.001 (0.002) 0.000 (0.000) 0.003* (0.001) 0.002 (0.002) Squared change of debt -0.132 (0.437) 0.139 (0.326) 1.122* (0.661) 1.260 (0.922) Expenditure Preferences of Voters -0.010 (0.013) -0.007 (0.012) -0.022 (0.019) -0.008 (0.021) F-Test: Joint Sign. of Bottom-up Votes 3.53** 6.41** 5.50** 6.91*** 8.24*** 10.21** 13.08*** 9.86*** Cantonal Time Trend Yes Yes No No Yes Yes No No CSA Controls Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Cantons 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 Years 41 41 41 41 31 31 31 31 N 1,025 1,025 1,025 1,025 775 775 775 775 Dependent variable: Primary Surplus relative to imputed cantonal GDP. Effects are estimated with Pesaran’s ( 2006 ) CCEMG estimator that controls for cross-sectional-dependence and time variant unobservables with heterogenous impact across panels. We use the Stata routine xtmg. F-Test of joint significance show Chi2 coefficients and indicate the joint effects of lagged debt and number of bottom-up votes and the interaction of both. But are fiscal preferences time-invariant? While Dafflon and Pujol ( 2001 ) argue that fiscal preferences are persistent, Funk and Gathmann ( 2013 ) show that fiscal preferences may evolve over time if, e.g., the composition of a canton’s population changes or if voters experience a shift in their individual preferences. Only accounting for time-invariant unobservables may therefore not sufficiently reflect voters’ fiscal preferences, especially if a long t dimension is observed. The CCEMG-estimator allows for unobserved time-variant cross-cantonal effects. Thus, using this estimator goes beyond the simple inclusion of canton-fixed effects as it allows for changes in the fiscal preferences over time for the federation as a whole and the different impact that these changes have on every canton in each year. However, the CCEMG-estimator only allows for time-variant unobservables within each canton that are in line with the federations as a whole and, thus, not for time-variant deviations of fiscal preferences within a canton compared to the federation as a whole. To allow for time-invariant fiscal preferences of voters within the cantons that deviate from the federation, we follow Funk and Gathmann ( 2011 ) and amend our model in two ways. First, we include canton-specific time trends into the model. As preferences evolve slowly, time trends should capture gradual changes in the primary surplus that can be explained by preference shifts. However, there may be other factors that influence the primary surplus over time. Therefore, we use an updated version of Funk and Gathmann’s ( 2011 ) variable of fiscal preferences as second approach to measure time-variant fiscal preferences within the cantons. Following them, we use the 613 popular votes that took place on the Swiss federal level between 1977 and 2017. From these votes, we separate those that would have increased or decreased public spending (Funk and Gathmann 2011 ). We then use the average support for increases (against decreases) of public spending within each canton in every year as our measure for the expenditure preferences of voters within a canton. We update the data of Funk and Gathmann ( 2011 , 2013 ) twofold. First, we extend the data until 2017. Second, we weight each cantonal vote share with the turnout of the vote in the respective canton to consider that a federal vote might have a varying relevance among the cantons and low turnouts that result out of this could bias approval shares and, thus, the preference indicator. Estimation results that include our measures for time-variant fiscal preferences of the electorate within the cantons are reported in Table 2. We include canton-specific linear trends in columns 1 and 5. In columns 2 and 6 we include canton-specific trends and allow for non-linearities in the development of the debt to GDP ratio. Including cantonal trends leaves our results on fiscal sustainability unchanged, while the effect of an additional population triggered vote is slightly larger than without including cantonal trends. In column 3 and 7, we include our variable for the expenditure preferences of voters within a canton into the model. If we explicitly control for the expenditure preferences of voters, the fiscal reaction coefficient slightly increases, while the inclusion of time-variant expenditure preferences leaves the effect of an additional population-triggered vote on the government’s fiscal reaction almost unchanged. These results hold if we allow for non-linearities in the debt to GDP ratio (columns 4 and 8). The expenditure preferences variable shows the expected negative sign, indicating that higher expenditure preferences of the electorate are associated with lower primary surpluses. However, this effect is not statistically significant. We explain the statistical insignificance of the expenditure preferences variable with the characteristics of the CCEMG-estimator, that already incorporates large parts of the cross-cantonal time-variation of fiscal preferences of voters. 5.3 Disentangling Indirect and Direct Effects Why do additional population-triggered votes increase the fiscal reaction of cantonal governments to an increasing debt to GDP ratio? Both, indirect and direct effects are conceivable. According to Gerber ( 1996 ) and Matsusaka ( 2018 ) the expectation of governments that voters could challenge or amend their policy induces them to change their policy preemptively. In our case, this would mean that governments act fiscally more cautiously after experiencing an alert electorate, expecting that their policy could be challenged in the current year (indirect effect). It could, however, also be the case that voters use their direct democratic rights and effectively change the fiscal policy of a canton. A higher number of votes would then be associated with a larger increase in a canton’s debt to GDP ratio. In this case, the stronger fiscal reaction would result out of a changed fiscal need to adopt the primary surplus (direct effect). To disentangle the indirect and the direct effects, we separate the population-triggered votes into those that are approved by the electorate and those that fail at the ballots. Again, we interact the number of approved and non-approved votes in the previous year with the lagged debt to GDP ratio to analyze whether fiscal reactions to increasing debt change if the electorate uses its direct democratic rights actively. If the change of fiscal reactions comes through the approved votes or through both, the approved and the non-approved votes, we cannot clearly disentangle the indirect from the direct effects. If, however, the effect only comes via the votes that fail at the ballots, we find evidence supporting the indirect channel as these votes did not effectively change the government’s intended policy. Results for the disentangled approved and non-approved votes are reported in columns 1 and 2 of Table 3. We only find a positive and statistically significant effect on the fiscal reaction of cantonal governments to increasing debt to GDP ratios for the number of votes that fail at the ballot. The effect size of an additional vote increases compared to the pooled number of population-triggered votes. Our estimates indicate that with every population-triggered vote that fails at the ballots, the government increases the primary surplus by additional 0.057 percentage points of imputed GDP to counteract an increase in the debt to GDP ratio, while we find no significant effect of successful population-triggered votes on the fiscal reaction of cantonal governments. Table 3 Effect of Bottom-up Votes on the Fiscal Reaction Function of Cantonal Governments with Disentangled Effects 1987–2017 Dependent Variable: Primary Surplus Primary Expenditures Revenues (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) Lagged Debt 0.071* (0.043) 0.068* (0.041) 0.063** (0.032) 0.319 (0.305) 0.137*** (0.028) 0.111*** (0.030) Lagged Debt*No. of Bottom-up Votes -0.062 (0.049) -0.011 (0.035) 0.012* (0.007) 0.016** (0.007) Lagged Debt*No. of Bottom-up Votes Approved 0.019 (0.051) 0.005 (0.056) Lagged Debt*No. of Bottom-up Votes Non-Approved 0.057** (0.029) 0.054* (0.031) No. of Bottom-up Votes 0.005 (0.004) -0.001 (0.003) -0.001 (0.001) -0.001 (0.001) No. of Bottom-up Votes Approved -0.002 (0.003) -0.001 (0.003) No. of Bottom-up Votes Non-Approved -0.004* (0.002) -0.003 (0.002) YVAR 0.373 (1.235) 3.975 (5.081) -0.059 (0.887) GVAR -1.252*** (0.348) 19.131*** (4.268) 0.579*** (0.163) Output Gap -0.121 (0.121) -1.030 (0.897) -0.118 (0.097) Expenditure Gap -0.559*** (0.066) 10.252*** (0.231) 0.458*** (0.069) Primary Surplus (t-1) 0.072 (0.061) 0.138** (0.055) Primary Expenditures (t-1) 0.155*** (0.034) 0.171*** (0.031) Revenues (t-1) 0.141** (0.067) 0.138** (0.067) Fiscal Rule Index 0.003** (0.001) 0.003* (0.002) -0.007 (0.010) -0.008 (0.008) 0.001 (0.002) 0.001 (0.002) Expenditure Pref. of Voters -0.013 (0.026) -0.011 (0.026) 0.014 (0.105) -0.060 (0.088) -0.020 (0.022) -0.014 (0.019) Cantonal Time Trend Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes CSA Controls Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes F-Test: Joint Sign. of Bottom-up Votes 11.26*** 11.74*** 4.23** 0.61 25.52*** 16.24*** Cantons 25 25 25 25 25 25 Years 31 31 31 31 31 31 N 775 775 775 775 775 775 Effects are estimated with Pesaran’s ( 2006 ) CCEMG estimator that controls for cross-sectional-dependence and time variant unobservables with heterogenous impact across panels. We use the Stata routine xtmg. F-Test of joint significance show Chi2 coefficients and indicate the joint effects of lagged debt and number of bottom-up votes and the interaction of both. There could still be a direct effect at work if the failure of a vote induces an increase in a canton’s debt to GDP ratio. This would be the case if the government favored an increase in the debt to GDP ratio in t-1 . To check for this possibility, we estimate an auxiliary regression with the cantonal debt to GDP ratio as dependent variable and the number of population-triggered votes that fail as explanatory variable. Moreover, we control for extraordinary fluctuations in output and expenditures as well as fiscal preferences of the electorate. Results are shown in Table A1. We find no effect of failing votes on cantonal debt to GDP ratios. Therefore, our results support the theoretical reasoning of Gerber ( 1996 ) and Matsusaka ( 2018 ) on the indirect effects of direct democracy on fiscal policy outcomes. 5.4 Does Adaption Come through Cutting Expenditures or Raising Revenues? If cantonal governments act fiscally cautiously because they expect voters to challenge or to amend their policies, they can either reduce primary expenditures, increase revenues or combine the two policies. In columns 3 to 6 of Table 3, we estimate which of those three policies cantonal governments choose to counteract an increase in their debt to GDP ratio. Table 4 Isolated Effects of Initiatives on the Fiscal Reaction Function of Cantonal Governments 1987–2017 (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) Lagged Debt 0.106*** (0.036) 0.139*** (0.038) 0.136*** (0.043) 0.135*** (0.046) 0.162*** (0.034) 0.160*** (0.054) Lagged Debt*No. Initiatives 0.021* (0.012) 0.025** (0.010) 0.033*** (0.012) 0.034*** (0.013) Number of Initiatives -0.001 (0.001) -0.002** (0.001) -0.002** (0.001) -0.002* (0.001) Lagged Debt*No. Initiatives Approved -0.151 (0.173) Number of Initiatives Approved 0.007 (0.010) Lagged Debt*No. Initiatives Non-Approved 0.037** (0.018) Number of Initiatives Non-Approved -0.002 (0.001) YVAR 0.776 (0.907) 1.063* (0.566) 0.677 (0.794) 0.951 (0.727) 0.810 (1.160) 0.873 (0.676) GVAR -1.171*** (0.312) -1.216*** (0.347) -1.194*** (0.320) -1.139*** (0.322) -1.117*** (0.287) -1.141*** (0.314) Primary Surplus (t-1) 0.133*** (0.048) 0.072* (0.043) -0.005 (0.051) 0.020 (0.060) 0.001 (0.063) 0.010 (0.059) Fiscal Rule Index 0.002* (0.001) 0.002 (0.002) 0.000 (0.003) 0.001 (0.003) 0.001 (0.003) 0.001 (0.003) Squared change of debt 1.800** (0.800) 1.325** (0.585) 1.313* (0.694) 1.221 (0.767) 1.338* (0.763) Expenditure Preferences of Voters -0.010 (0.022) -0.006 (0.026) -0.005 (0.021 Cantonal Time Trend Yes Yes Yes Yes CSA Controls Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes F-Test: Joint Sign. of Bottom-up Votes 12.95*** 17.83*** 15.71*** 13.03*** 0.01 16.90*** Cantons 25 25 25 25 25 25 Years 31 31 31 31 31 31 N 775 775 775 775 775 775 Dependent variable: Primary Surplus relative to imputed cantonal GDP. Effects are estimated with Pesaran’s ( 2006 ) CCEMG estimator that controls for cross-sectional-dependence and time variant unobservables with heterogenous impact across panels. We use the Stata routine xtmg. F-Test of joint significance show Chi2 coefficients and indicate the joint effects of lagged debt and number of bottom-up votes and the interaction of both. Our results show that cantonal governments increase their revenues after their debt to GDP ratio increased, while we find no robust effects for expenditure cuts. In line with this general fiscal reaction, our results indicate that the effect of an alert electorate on the fiscal reaction of the government also evolves on the revenue side of the public budget. Our estimates indicate that, with every additional population-triggered vote, cantonal revenue increases by 0.012 to 0.016 percentage points of imputed cantonal GDP in the following year. On the contrary, we find no significant effect of additional population-triggered votes on primary spending. According to these results, an increased expectation of governments that voters intervene into their policy incentivizes cantonal governments to increase revenues and not to cut expenditures. 5.5 Effects of Initiatives According to theory (Matsusaka 2018 ), initiatives and referendums have different effects on the relative correction of governmental policy towards the preferences of the electorate. Not controlling for the exclusive effect of initiatives would be problematic if fiscal preferences of voters and governments differed one-dimensionally over all cantons and years. Although this is unlikely in our case, we cannot rule out this scenario. Thus, we run separate estimations and investigate whether our results on fiscal reactions hold if we only use the number of initiatives that appeared at the ballot in the previous year. Separate results for initiatives are reported in Table 4. Our results on fiscal reactions hold, if we only use the number of initiatives that appeared at the ballot as our measure for the alertness of the electorate. The effect of an additional initiative that appears at the ballots on the fiscal reaction to an increase in the debt to GDP ratio is larger than the effect of population-triggered votes in general. This is in line with theory indicating that the initiative is binding governments more strictly than the petition-referendum. Our separate estimates for the initiative support the evidence on the indirect effects of population-triggered votes. Again, we only find a significant effect on fiscal reactions for those initiatives that fail at the ballot. 6. Robustness We run a series of robustness checks to ensure that our empirical results on the effects of additional votes on the fiscal reaction of cantonal governments are not spurious. First, we use the control variables that are proposed by Bohn ( 2008 ) and applied by Potrafke and Reischmann ( 2015 ) and Feld et al. ( 2020 ) to consider fluctuations in output and cantonal expenditures instead of using the GVAR and YVAR controls that Barro’s ( 1981 , 1986 ) model yields. Bohn ( 2008 ) uses the deviation of the actual value of output and expenditures from their trend. Again, we calculate trend values using the Hodrick-Prescott (1997) filter with a smoothing parameter of 100. In line with theory, we expect a negative correlation of Bohn’s expenditure- and output-gap with the primary surplus. Results with Bohn controls are reported in Table A2 in the appendix . For the analysis of disentangled effects, results with the control variables of Bohn are shown in Table 5. Our results hold if we use the alternative specification to control for fluctuations in output and expenditures. Second, we include dummy variables that indicate whether a cantonal election took place in the previous year. Burret and Feld ( 2018 ) find that political budget cycles influence cantonal fiscal policy and show that governments increase expenditures in election years. If voters triggered more popular votes in election years, the increased need to restore the additional expenditures in the year following the election could bias our results. Our measure would then act as a proxy for a political budget cycle. Column 1 and 5 of Table 5 show our model with election dummies included. In column 2 and 6 we include an interaction term between election dummies and the lagged debt to GDP ratio to estimate whether fiscal reactions are stronger after election years. In both specifications, we continue to find a positive and significant effect of the number of population-triggered votes on the fiscal reaction to increased debt. On the contrary, we find no effect of an increased fiscal reaction in a year following an election. Third, in addition to control for the influence of fiscal rules on the primary surplus, we include an interaction between the fiscal rule index and the lagged debt to GDP ratio to control for effects of fiscal rules on fiscal reactions. If changes in a canton’s fiscal rule coincided with popular votes, this could influence our results. Our results in columns 3 and 7 of Table 6 show however that fiscal rules, although having an effect on the level of the primary surplus, do not impair our estimates on the effects of popular votes on fiscal reactions. Fourth, we use the average turnout of population-triggered votes in the previous year instead of the number of votes as alternative measure for the alertness of cantonal electorates. Results are reported in columns 4 and 8 of Table 5. We find no effects of an increased participation of electorates in popular votes on the fiscal reaction of a canton’s government to increased debt. This result supports that it is the sheer possibility of a vote that induces governments to become fiscally cautious, expecting that voters could challenge their policies. To check our results on direct and indirect effects of population-triggered votes further, we include the number of population-triggered votes in the current year as additional control variable into our model. It is likely that the number of population-triggered votes in the current year are correlated with the number of population-triggered votes in the past year. Then, our measure for the alertness of voters would act as a proxy for the number of votes in the current year. In this case, our results which support the indirect effects of an alert electorate would not hold. We include the number of population-triggered votes in the current year as additional control variable into our model. Moreover, we include an interaction between the lagged debt to GDP ratio and the number of votes in the current year. Estimations are reported in Table A3. We find no effects of the number of population-triggered votes in the current year on the primary surplus or on fiscal reactions. With both changes in the model, our results on the effects of the number of votes in the previous year on fiscal reactions hold. Table 5 Robustness 1977–2017 1987–2017 Political Budget Cycles Fiscal Rules Turnout Political Budget Cycles Fiscal Rules Turnout (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) Lagged Debt 0.048* (0.026) 0.054** (0.023) 0.036 (0.023) 0.088** (0.042) 0.094*** (0.034) 0.109*** (0.037) 0.052 (0.045) 0.128*** (0.044) Lagged Debt*No. of Bottom-up Votes 0.009* (0.005) 0.008* (0.005) 0.009* (0.005) 0.017** (0.008) 0.021** (0.012) 0.018** (0.007) Lagged Debt*Election 0.003 (0.016) 0.024 (0.052) Lagged Debt*Fiscal Rule Index -0.067 (0.082) -0.013 (0.067) Lagged Debt*Turnout 0.017 (0.020) -0.011 (0.053) Election Dummy 0.001 (0.000) -0.001 (0.002) 0.001 (0.001) -0.002 (0.004) Number of Bottom-up Votes -0.001* (0.000) -0.001 (0.000) -0.001** (0.000) 0.000 (0.000) -0.001* (0.001) -0.001 (0.001) -0.002** (0.001) -0.001* (0.000) Fiscal Rule Index 0.003** (0.001) 0.002* (0.001) 0.001 (0.004) 0.002* (0.001) 0.003** (0.001) 0.002 (0.001) -0.001 (0.006) 0.002 (0.001) YVAR 1.071 (0.886) 1.106 (0.838) 0.703 (0.674) 1.549** (0.777) 0.085 (0.886) 0.049 (1.007) -0.737 (0.922) 1.374 (0.896) GVAR -0.794*** (0.227) -0.802*** (0.216) -0.803*** (0.221) -0.883*** (0.257) -1.126*** (0.296) -1.191*** (0.299) -1.126*** (0.309) -1.327*** (0.360) Primary Surplus (t-1) 0.142*** (0.043) 0.150*** (0.046) 0.043 (0.052) 0.141*** (0.048) 0.050 (0.045) 0.071 (0.056) -0.017 (0.047) 0.067 (0.055) Expenditure Preferences of Voters -0.007 (0.014) -0.002 (0.015) -0.019 (0.018) -0.007 (0.014) .0,022 (0.024 -0.040* (0.024) -0.035** (0.015) -0.012 (0.022) Average Turnout of Votes -0.008 (0.007) 0.002 (0.004) CSA Controls Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes F-Test: Joint Sign. of Bottom-up Votes 5.59** 7.75*** 5.50** 7.33** 12.63*** 12.35*** 13.70*** 4.95** Cantons 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 Years 41 41 41 41 31 31 31 31 N 1,025 1,025 1,025 1,025 775 775 775 775 Dependent variable: Primary Surplus relative to imputed cantonal GDP. Effects are estimated with Pesaran’s ( 2006 ) CCEMG estimator that controls for cross-sectional-dependence and time variant unobservables with heterogenous impact across panels. We use the Stata routine xtmg. F-Test of joint significance show Chi2 coefficients and indicate the joint effects of lagged debt and number of bottom-up votes and the interaction of both. Finally, we want to ensure that our estimations are not biased due to single observations. We exclude single cantons from the panel to check whether the non-stationarity of the debt series of single cantons disturbs our empirical results. We can trace back the result of panel-non-stationarity in the debt to GDP ratio to the four cantons Obwalden, Basel-County, St. Gallen and Ticino. Table A4 shows estimation results excluding these four cantons and estimate the effects for cantons with stationary debt series. The empirical results remain robust. Thus, non-stationarity in the debt series of single cantons does not change our results. 7. Conclusion By estimating fiscal reaction functions, we show that the Swiss cantons run sustainable fiscal policies. The cantons react to a rise in their debt to GDP ratio by increasing their primary surplus to counteract this increase. According to our estimates, the extent to which citizens use their direct democratic rights explains parts of a canton’s fiscal reactions. Our results indicate that the fiscal reaction to increased debt is stronger, the more proactive cantonal voters use their direct democratic rights. Moreover, we find that those votes that fail at the ballot induce stronger fiscal reactions of cantonal governments. In line with the existing theory on the effects of direct democracy on fiscal outcomes, we explain these findings with the “threat”-effect of direct democracy: Representatives act fiscally more cautiously if they expect that voters will change or amend their policy. These expectations rise, the more voters actively use direct democratic provisions. Does this support the claim that voters who use their direct democratic rights proactively enhance fiscal sustainability, instead of harming it? Based on the empirical evidence in this paper, for the case of the Swiss cantons the ultimate answer to this question is yes. However, neither enhancing fiscal sustainability nor inducing more conservative fiscal policies needs to be the intention of voters. Moreover, spending preferences of voters do not need to be more conservative than those of governments to attain a sustainability-enhancing effect. Instead, and with reference to the theory on the indirect effects of direct democracy, the evidence of this paper suggests that the eminence of the fiscal commons problem increases for governments if they expect that their intended policies will be changed by a proactive electorate in a way they cannot foresee. As a consequence, our results suggest that cantonal governments adapt their policies preemptively and counteract increases in their debt to GDP ratio precautionarily stronger to retain fiscal space for the case that voters thwart their fiscal plans. Thus, involvement of the electorate through direct democracy helps to explain why the Swiss cantonal level runs sustainable fiscal policies. Appendix Table A1 Auxiliary Regression of the Influence of Failed Votes on Debt 1987–2017 (1) (2) No. of failed Bottom-up Votes 0.000 (0.001) 0.001 (0.001) Lagged Debt 0.600*** (0.065) 0.341*** (0.058) YVAR -0.264 (1.892) -0.207 (2.469) GVAR 0.249 (0.168) 0.288 (0.238) Fiscal Rule Index -0.005** (0.002) -0.001 (0.005) Squared change of debt -2.551 (2.307) Expenditure Preferences of Voters 0.013 (0.035) 0.003 (0.031) Cantonal Time Trend Yes Yes CSA Controls Yes Yes Cantons 25 25 Years 31 31 N 775 775 Dependent variable: Debt to GDP ratio. Effects are estimated with Pesaran’s ( 2006 ) CCEMG estimator that controls for cross-sectional-dependence and time variant unobservables with heterogenous impact across panels. We use the Stata routine xtmg. Table A2 FRF Estimations with Bohn Controls 1977–2017 1987–2017 (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) Lagged Debt 0.038* (0.023) 0.060** (0.026) 0.058* (0.031) 0.055* (0.031) 0.093*** (0.028) 0.140*** (0.042) 0.072** (0.030) 0.076** (0.032) Lagged Debt*No. of Bottom-up Votes 0.009* (0.005) 0.010* (0.006) 0.012* (0.007) 0.014** (0.007) 0.013* (0.007) 0.013 (0.009) 0.018* (0.010) 0.016** (0.008) Number of Bottom-up Votes -0.001 (0.000) -0.001* (0.001) -0.001* (0.001) -0.001** (0.001) -0.001 (0.001) -0.001 (0.001) -0.001 (0.001) -0.001 (0.001) Output Gap (Bohn) -0.123** (0.056) -0.064 (0.073) -0.058 (0.064) -0.067 (0.066) -0.181** (0.082) -0.143 (0.100) -0.243*** (0.074) -0.228*** (0.087) Expenditure Gap (Bohn) -0.527*** (0.053) -0.526*** (0.051) -0.511*** (0.044) -0.508*** (0.049) -0.535*** (0.059) -0.529*** (0.047) -0.525*** (0.063) -0.515*** (0.067) Primary Surplus (t-1) 0.180*** (0.042) 0.121*** (0.040) 0.038 (0.033) 0.035 (0.036) 0.128*** (0.045) 0.042 (0.043) 0.042 (0.038) 0.058 (0.040) Fiscal Rule Index 0.001 (0.001) 0.001 (0.001) 0.001 (0.002) 0.002 (0.002) 0.002 (0.002) 0.002 (0.003) 0.002 (0.002) 0.002 (0.002) Squared change of debt 0.142 (0.317) 1,810* (0.926) Expenditure Preferences of Voters -0.008 (0.011) -0.026 (0.016) Cantonal Time Trend Yes Yes Yes Yes CSA Controls Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Cantons 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 Years 41 41 41 41 31 31 31 31 N 1,025 1,025 1,025 1,025 775 775 775 775 Dependent variable: Primary Surplus relative to imputed cantonal GDP. Effects are estimated with Pesaran’s ( 2006 ) CCEMG estimator that controls for cross-sectional-dependence and time variant unobservables with heterogenous impact across panels. We use the Stata routine xtmg. Table A3 Effects of Population-Triggered Votes in the Current Year 1977–2017 1987–2017 (1) (2) (3) (4) Lagged Debt 0.096*** (0.035) 0.090** (0.045) 0.188*** (0.060) 0.132* (0.073) Lagged Debt*No. of Bottom-up Votes 0.016** (0.008) 0.021* (0.012) Number of Bottom-up Votes -0.002** (0.001) -0.002* (0.001) Lagged Debt*No. Bottom-up Votes in t -0.003 (0.006) 0.000 (0.009) -0.012 (0.012) -0.006 (0.016) Number of Bottom-up Votes in t 0.000 (0.001) 0.000 (0.001) 0.001 (0.001) 0.000 (0.001) YVAR 0.912 (0.745( 1.131 (0.771) 1.105 (0.819) 2.029 (1.349) GVAR -0.806*** (0.225) -0.755*** (0.207) -1.129*** (0.315) -1.241*** (0.376) Primary Surplus (t-1) 0.034 (0.049) 0.027 (0.047) 0.017 (0.061) 0.027 (0.065) Fiscal Rule Index 0.004 (0.002) 0.003 (0.002) 0.003 (0.003) 0.002 (0.003) Squared change of debt -0.170 (0.432) -0.100 (0.497) 1.770** (0.767) 1.439** (0.675) Expenditure Preferences of Voters -0.004 (0.013 -0.002 (0.012) -0.001 (0.026) -0.019 (0.027) Cantonal Time Trend Yes Yes Yes Yes CSA Controls Yes Yes Yes Yes Cantons 25 25 25 25 Years 41 41 31 31 N 1,025 1,025 775 775 Dependent variable: Primary Surplus relative to imputed cantonal GDP. Effects are estimated with Pesaran’s ( 2006 ) CCEMG estimator that controls for cross-sectional-dependence and time variant unobservables with heterogenous impact across panels. We use the Stata routine xtmg. Table A4 Excluding Cantons with Non-Stationary Debt Series 1977–2017 (1) 1987–2017 (2) 1987–2017 (3) 1987–2017 (4) Lagged Debt 0.081** (0.041) 0.167*** (0.056) 0.163*** (0.048) 0.103** (0.050) Lagged Debt*No. of Bottom-up Votes 0.015** (0.007) 0.020* (0.011) Lagged Debt*No. of Bottom-up Votes Approved 0.023 (0.026) Lagged Debt*No. of Bottom-up Votes Non-Approved 0.033 (0.021) No. of Bottom-up Votes No. of Bottom-up Votes Approved -0.002 (0.002) No. of Bottom-up Votes Non-Approved -0.002 (0.002) YVAR 0.796 (0.674) 0.536 (0.973) 0.769 (1.386) 0.593 (1.530) GVAR -0.772*** (0.246) -1.108*** (0.321) -1.180*** (0.309) -1.105*** (0.306) Primary Surplus (t-1) 0.023 (0.049) -0.052 (0.044) -0.086* (0.049) 0.008 (0.044) Fiscal Rule Index 0.004* (0.002) 0.004 (0.003) 0.004 (0.004) 0.004 (0.002) Squared change of debt -0.103 (0.449) 0.688 (1.182) 1.217 (1.013) 1.336 (1.116) Expenditure Preferences of Voters -0.001 (0.014) 0.003 (0.019) 0.012 (0.024) -0.004 (0.015) Cantonal Time Trend Yes Yes Yes Yes CSA Controls Yes Yes Yes Yes Cantons 21 21 21 21 Years 41 31 31 31 N 861 651 651 651 Dependent variable: Primary Surplus relative to imputed cantonal GDP. Effects are estimated with Pesaran’s ( 2006 ) CCEMG estimator that controls for cross-sectional-dependence and time variant unobservables with heterogenous impact across panels. We use the Stata routine xtmg. Declarations Author Contribution All three authors jointly developed the idea to analyze this research question; all three authors took their share in drafting and reviewing the manuscript. Yannick Bury collected the data and conducted the econometric analysis. Acknowledgements: We thank John Matsusaka for valuable comments. References Asatryan, Z., Baskaran, T., Grigoriadis, T. and Heinemann, F. (2017) “Direct Democracy and Local Public Finances under Cooperative Federalism” Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 119: 801-820. Barro, R.J. (1981) “Output Effects of Government Purchases” Journal of Political Economy, 89: 1086-1121. Barro, R.J. (1986) “US Deficits since World War II” Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 88: 195-222. Besley, T. and Coate, S. (2008) “Issue Unbundling via Citizen’s Initiatives” Quarterly Journal of Political Science, 3: 379-397. Boehmke, F.J. (2005) The Indirect Effect of Direct Legislation: How Institutions Shape Interest Group Systems . Columbus: Ohio State University Press. Boehmke, F.J. and Bowen, D.C. (2010) “Direct Democracy and Individual Interest Group Membership” Journal of Politics, 72: 659-671. Bohn, H. (1995) “The Sustainability of Budget Deficits in a Stochastic Economy” Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 27: 257-271. Bohn, H. (1998) “The Behavior of US Public Debt and Deficits” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 113: 949-963. Bohn, H. (2007) “Are Stationarity and Cointegration Restrictions Really Necessary for the Intertemporal Budget Constraint?” Journal of Monetary Economics, 54: 1837-1847. Bohn, H. (2008) “The Sustainability of Fiscal Policy in the United States” In: R. Neck and J.E. Sturm (eds.), Sustainability of Public Debt , Cambridge: MIT Press, 15-49. Burret, H.T. and Feld, L.P. (2018) “Vertical Effects of Fiscal Rules: The Swiss Experience“ International Tax and Public Finance, 25: 673–721. Claeys. P. (2006) “Policy Mix and Debt Sustainability: Evidence from Fiscal Policy Rules” Empirica, 33: 89-112. Dafflon, B. and Pujol, F. (2001) “Fiscal Preferences and Fiscal Performance: Swiss Cantonal Evidence” International Public Management Review: 54-76. D’Ersamo P., Mendoza, E.G. and Zhang, J. (2016) “What Is Sustainable Public Debt?” In: J.B. Taylor and H. Uhlig (eds.), Handbook of Macroeconomics , Amsterdam: Elsevier, 2493-2597. Feld, L.P. and Kirchgässner, G. (2001) “The Political Economy of Direct Legislation: Direct Democracy and Local Decision Making” Economic Policy, 33: 329-367. Feld L.P. and Kirchgässner G. (2005) “Sustainable Fiscal Policy in a Federal System: Switzerland as an Example“ In: H. Kriesi, P. Farago, M. Kohli and M. Zarin-Nejadan (eds.) Contemporary Switzerland: Revisiting the Special Case , Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan, 281-296. Feld, L.P. and Kirchgässner, G. (2007) “On the Effectiveness of Debt Brakes: The Swiss Experience” In: R. Neck and J.E. Sturm (eds.), Sustainability of Public Debt , Cambridge: MIT Press: 223-255. Feld, L.P. and Matsusaka, J.G. (2003) “Budget Referendums and Government Spending: Evidence from Swiss Cantons” Journal of Public Economics, 87: 2703-2714. Feld, L.P., Kirchgässner G. and Schaltegger, C.A. (2010) “Decentralized Taxation and the Size of Government: Evidence from Swiss State and Local Governments“ Southern Economic Journal, 77: 27-48 Feld, L.P., Köhler, E.A. and Wolfinger, J. (2020) “Modelling Fiscal Sustainability in Dynamic Macro Panels with Heterogenous Effects: Evidence from German Federal States” International Tax and Public Finance, 27: 215-239. Freitag, M. and Vatter, A. (2006) „Initiatives, Referendums, and the Tax State“ Journal of European Public Policy, 13: 89-112. Funk, P. and Gathmann C. (2011) “Does Direct Democracy Reduce the Size of Government? New Evidence from Historical Data, 1890-2000” Economic Journal, 121: 1252-1280. Funk, P. and Gathmann, C. (2013) “Voter Preferences, Direct Democracy and Government Spending” European Journal of Political Economy, 32: 300-319. Gerber, E.R. (1996) “Legislative Response to the Threat of Popular Initiatives” American Journal of Political Science, 40: 99-128. Gerber, E.R. (1999) The Populist Paradox: Interest Group Influence and the Promise of Direct Leg­islation . Princeton: Princeton University Press. Gerber, E.R., Lupia, A., McCubbins, M.D. and Kiewiet, R.D. (2001), Stealing the Initiative: How State Government Responds to Direct Democracy . Upper Saddle River, NY: Prentice Hall. Hodrick R. and Prescott, E. (1997) “Post-War US business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation” Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 29: 1-16. Kirchgässner, G. (2013) “Fiscal Institutions at the Cantonal Level in Switzerland” Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, 149: 139-166. Kousser, T., McCubbins, M. D. and Moule, E. (2008) “For Whom the TEL Tolls: Can State Tax and Expenditure Limits Effectively Reduce Spending?” State Politics & Policy Quarterly, 8: 331-361. Krogstrup S. and Wälti, S. (2008) “Do Fiscal Rules Cause Budgetary Outcomes?” Public Choice: 128-138. Matsusaka, J.G. (1995) “Fiscal Effects of the Voter Initiative: Evidence from the Last Thirty Years” Journal of Political Economy, 103: 587-623. Matsusaka, J.G. (2000) “Fiscal Effects of the Voter Initiative in the First Half of the Twentieth Century” Journal of Law and Economics, 43: 619-650. Matsusaka, J.G. (2010), “Popular Control of Public Policy: A Quantitative Approach”, Quarterly Journal of Political Science, 5: 133-167. Matsusaka, J.G. (2014) “Disentangling the Direct and Indirect Effects of the Initiative Process” Public Choice, 160: 345-366. Matsusaka, J.G. (2018) “Public Policy and the Initiative and Referendum. A Survey with Some New Evidence” Public Choice, 174: 107-143. Matsusaka, J.G. (2020) Let the People Rule: How Direct Democracy Can Meet the Populist Challenge . Princeton: Princeton University Press. Matsusaka, J.G. (2023) “Direct Democracy Backsliding? Quantifying the Prevalence and Investigating Causes 1960-2022” Working Paper, University of Southern California, Los Angeles. Matsusaka J.G. and McCarty N.M. (2001) “Political Resource Allocation: Benefits and Costs of Voter Initiatives” Journal of Law, Economics, and Organization, 17: 413-448. Mendoza, E.G. and Ostry, J.D. (2008) “International Evidence of Fiscal Solvency: Is Fiscal Policy Responsible?” Journal of Monetary Economics, 55: 1081-1093. Peltzman, S. (1992) “Voters as Fiscal Conservatives” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 107: 327-361. Pesaran, M.H. (2004) “General Diagnostic Test for Cross Section Dependence in Panels” CESifo Working Paper, no. 1229, Munich. Pesaran, M.H. (2006) “Estimation and Inference in Large Heterogenous Panels with a Multifactor Error Structure” Econometrica, 74: 967-1012. Potrafke, N. and Reischmann, M. (2015) “Fiscal Transfers and Fiscal Sustainability” Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 47: 975-1005. Qvortrup, M. (2021) Democracy on Demand: Holding Power to Account . Manchester: Manchester University Press. Romer T. and Rosenthal H. (1979) “Bureaucrats versus Voters: On the Political Economy of Resource Allocation by Direct Democracy” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 93: 563-587. Schaltegger, C.A. (2002) “Budgetregeln und ihre Wirkung auf die öffentlichen Haushalte: Empirische Ergebnisse aus den US-Bundesstaaten und den Schweizer Kantonen” Schmollers Jahrbuch, 122: 361-413. Smith, D.A. and Tolbert, C.J. (2004) Educated by Initiative: The Effects of Direct Democracy in Citizens and Political Organizations on the American States . Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press. Theofilakou N. and Stournaras Y. (2012) “Government Solvency and Financial Markets: Dynamic Panel Estimates for the European Monetary Union” Economics Letters, 115: 130-133. Footnotes For a detailed overview over the implementation of these institutions in Switzerland and the US as the two countries that use direct democracy most actively, see Matsusaka ( 2018 ). A special form of direct democratic provisions in the cantons are cantonal assemblies similar to town meetings at the local level. Today, only two cantons (Appenzell-Inner-Rhodes and Glarus) still use cantonal assemblies to involve their electorate in public decision-making. In these assemblies, all voters that are entitled to vote meet at a central place in the canton. Decisions are made by acclamation of all eligible voters that are present. The canton of Jura seceded from the canton of Berne in 1979. Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {\"props\":{\"pageProps\":{\"initialData\":{\"identity\":\"rs-3884955\",\"acceptedTermsAndConditions\":true,\"allowDirectSubmit\":true,\"archivedVersions\":[],\"articleType\":\"Research Article\",\"associatedPublications\":[],\"authors\":[{\"id\":268842167,\"identity\":\"d04432c0-dde2-4012-9af3-e7e91ece208c\",\"order_by\":0,\"name\":\"Yannick Bury\",\"email\":\"\",\"orcid\":\"\",\"institution\":\"Walter Eucken Institut\",\"correspondingAuthor\":false,\"prefix\":\"\",\"firstName\":\"Yannick\",\"middleName\":\"\",\"lastName\":\"Bury\",\"suffix\":\"\"},{\"id\":268842168,\"identity\":\"58c14c0a-41b3-440a-84ba-f3adb5f090e4\",\"order_by\":1,\"name\":\"Lars P. Feld\",\"email\":\"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAAtUlEQVRIiWNgGAWjYBAC9gbmBokPQIYEiMdDjBaeA4wNkjNI1iLNQ5oW9sbG2zYVh+Ul23sPMLypIEYLz8Fm65wzhw1n85xLYJxzhggt9hKJbdK5bYcT5CRyDJh524ixRf5hm7TlP6AW+TdALf+I0SLB2CbN2HA4QVqCB6ilgRgtPInNlj3H0g1n9uQYHJxzjBgt7IcP3vhRYy0vcfyM4YM3NURoQQEHSNUwCkbBKBgFowAHAACDFDKbPtD22AAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==\",\"orcid\":\"\",\"institution\":\"University of Freiburg\",\"correspondingAuthor\":true,\"prefix\":\"\",\"firstName\":\"Lars\",\"middleName\":\"P.\",\"lastName\":\"Feld\",\"suffix\":\"\"},{\"id\":268842169,\"identity\":\"7ef14204-cc17-40fa-b035-90e478ac8c04\",\"order_by\":2,\"name\":\"Ekkehard A. Köhler\",\"email\":\"\",\"orcid\":\"\",\"institution\":\"University of Siegen\",\"correspondingAuthor\":false,\"prefix\":\"\",\"firstName\":\"Ekkehard\",\"middleName\":\"A.\",\"lastName\":\"Köhler\",\"suffix\":\"\"}],\"badges\":[],\"createdAt\":\"2024-01-21 14:21:50\",\"currentVersionCode\":1,\"declarations\":\"\",\"doi\":\"10.21203/rs.3.rs-3884955/v1\",\"doiUrl\":\"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-3884955/v1\",\"draftVersion\":[],\"editorialEvents\":[],\"editorialNote\":\"\",\"failedWorkflow\":false,\"files\":[{\"id\":50186191,\"identity\":\"e3757c58-cc76-4ac3-b163-1f604b7bea46\",\"added_by\":\"auto\",\"created_at\":\"2024-01-25 20:40:30\",\"extension\":\"jpeg\",\"order_by\":1,\"title\":\"Figure 1\",\"display\":\"\",\"copyAsset\":false,\"role\":\"figure\",\"size\":289686,\"visible\":true,\"origin\":\"\",\"legend\":\"\\u003cp\\u003e\\u003cstrong\\u003eNumber of Population-Triggered Votes in the Swiss Cantons 1977-2017\\u003c/strong\\u003e\\u003c/p\\u003e\\n\\u003cp\\u003e\\u003cem\\u003eSource:\\u003c/em\\u003e Own depiction based on Center for Democracy Studies Aarau.\\u003c/p\\u003e\",\"description\":\"\",\"filename\":\"floatimage1.jpeg\",\"url\":\"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-3884955/v1/663058aa465cf105a8cf8aad.jpeg\"},{\"id\":50186190,\"identity\":\"44b6df9f-2e1a-4735-9aa7-967cdcb1cbe6\",\"added_by\":\"auto\",\"created_at\":\"2024-01-25 20:40:30\",\"extension\":\"png\",\"order_by\":2,\"title\":\"Figure 2\",\"display\":\"\",\"copyAsset\":false,\"role\":\"figure\",\"size\":56820,\"visible\":true,\"origin\":\"\",\"legend\":\"\\u003cp\\u003e\\u003cstrong\\u003eCantonal Debt, Revenues and Expenditures relative to GDP 1977-2017\\u003c/strong\\u003e\\u003c/p\\u003e\\n\\u003cp\\u003e\\u003cem\\u003eSource:\\u003c/em\\u003e Own depiction based on Swiss Federal Federal Statistics Office.\\u003c/p\\u003e\",\"description\":\"\",\"filename\":\"F2.png\",\"url\":\"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-3884955/v1/f878d7d8291010a2f003b52e.png\"},{\"id\":79011234,\"identity\":\"a604f505-6d9b-41be-a00f-a505be320282\",\"added_by\":\"auto\",\"created_at\":\"2025-03-22 10:46:41\",\"extension\":\"pdf\",\"order_by\":0,\"title\":\"\",\"display\":\"\",\"copyAsset\":false,\"role\":\"manuscript-pdf\",\"size\":2160564,\"visible\":true,\"origin\":\"\",\"legend\":\"\",\"description\":\"\",\"filename\":\"manuscript.pdf\",\"url\":\"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-3884955/v1/83ec65f2-bde2-46da-9e2b-2c2eaeafdaa8.pdf\"}],\"financialInterests\":\"No competing interests reported.\",\"formattedTitle\":\"Disciplining Ballots? – (Un-intended) Effects of Voter Engagement on the Fiscal Sustainability of Swiss Cantons\",\"fulltext\":[{\"header\":\"1. Introduction\",\"content\":\"\\u003cp\\u003eEnabling voters to influence policy between elections through direct popular rights is most common in Switzerland and the United States. In other countries and federations, direct democracy also experienced a surge in recent years. On national levels the \\u0026ldquo;Brexit\\u0026rdquo; vote in the United Kingdom as well as popular votes on structural reforms in Greece and Italy are examples for electorates unveiling distinctly different preferences than their governments, inducing major policy changes (Matsusaka \\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR36\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2020\\u003c/span\\u003e). On the subnational level, direct popular rights are even more common and growing across countries (Qvortrup \\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR44\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2021\\u003c/span\\u003e), although there is also direct democratic backsliding in the U.S. (Matsusaka \\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR37\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2023\\u003c/span\\u003e).\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eSeveral studies show that policy outcomes come closer to the preferences of the median voter if voters can directly influence political decisions (Gerber \\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR25\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e1999\\u003c/span\\u003e, Matsusaka \\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR33\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2010\\u003c/span\\u003e). Regarding fiscal policies, existing evidence shows that this leads to lower levels of public spending and public revenues (Matsusaka \\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR35\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2018\\u003c/span\\u003e). But does this mean that an electorate that directly influences fiscal policy is also enhancing the \\u003cem\\u003esustainability\\u003c/em\\u003e of public finances? According to existing evidence, this answer depends on the instrument of direct democracy used. While fiscal referendums serve as a veto instrument preventing additional public spending (Feld and Matsusaka \\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR18\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2003\\u003c/span\\u003e, Funk and Gathmann \\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR22\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2011\\u003c/span\\u003e), popular initiatives may increase or decrease public spending (Matsusaka \\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR31\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e1995\\u003c/span\\u003e, \\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR32\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2000\\u003c/span\\u003e for the U.S., Asatryan et al. \\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR1\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2017\\u003c/span\\u003e for Germany) and therefore have different impacts on fiscal sustainability. Moreover, theoretically, the impact of direct democracy on fiscal sustainability may depend on citizens' fiscal preferences. If voters influence the government\\u0026rsquo;s fiscal policy directly, they may opt for deficit financing when they are fiscally less conservative than their elected representatives (see the seminal paper by Peltzman \\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR40\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e1992\\u003c/span\\u003e). However, even with a fiscally conservative electorate, sustainability of public finances can be at risk if spending preferences of voters are higher than their preferences for public revenues.\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eIn this paper, we study the case of 25 Swiss cantons from 1977 to 2017 and link existing theoretical considerations on the fiscal effects of direct democracy (Romer and Rosenthal \\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR45\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e1979\\u003c/span\\u003e, Gerber \\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR24\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e1996\\u003c/span\\u003e, Matsusaka and McCarty \\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR38\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2001\\u003c/span\\u003e, Besley and Coate \\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR4\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2008\\u003c/span\\u003e) to the concept of fiscal sustainability outlined by Bohn (\\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR7\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e1995\\u003c/span\\u003e, \\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR8\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e1998\\u003c/span\\u003e). We collect data on the popular votes that are triggered by the electorate and not by the government as our measure for the extent to which cantonal electorates proactively use their direct democratic rights. We estimate whether the number of these votes influences the fiscal reaction of the government to an increased debt to GDP ratio, while controlling for time-variant fiscal preferences of voters within each canton.\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eOur main finding is that, while cantonal governments run sustainable fiscal policies through increasing their primary surpluses after an increase in the canton\\u0026rsquo;s debt to GDP ratio, this fiscal reaction to increasing debt is significantly stronger the more cantonal voters actively make use of their direct democratic rights in the previous year. Thus, part of this fiscal reaction can be explained by the engagement of voters. Our estimates indicate that with every additional popular vote triggered by the electorate, cantonal governments increase their fiscal reaction to rising debt to GDP ratios by 0.01 to 0.02 percentage points of cantonal GDP in the year following the vote. We show that this effect comes via increased revenues and is driven by those votes that are not successful. This supports the theoretical reasoning of Matsusaka (\\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR34\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2014\\u003c/span\\u003e) who shows that the threat of becoming confronted with a popular vote is already changing government policy.\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eOur paper contributes to the literature on the fiscal consequences of direct democracy in two ways. First, instead of focusing on the levels of fiscal outcomes such as expenditures, revenues, deficits and debt this paper is, to the best of our knowledge, the first that investigates the effect of direct democracy on fiscal reaction behavior and, thus, on fiscal \\u003cem\\u003esustainability\\u003c/em\\u003e. Second, most of the existing studies that investigate the fiscal effects of direct democracy are interested in the effect that different direct democratic institutions by themselves exert on fiscal outcomes. In this paper, we ask whether the extent to which voters \\u003cem\\u003eactively make use\\u003c/em\\u003e of their existing direct democratic rights affects fiscal policy. Besides the literature on direct democracy, we contribute to the literature on fiscal sustainability, as we are the first to show that the use of direct democratic rights explains parts of cantonal fiscal reactions to increased debt and, thus, sustainable fiscal policies of Swiss Cantons.\\u003c/p\\u003e\"},{\"header\":\"2. Population-Triggered Direct Democracy and Fiscal Policy\",\"content\":\"\\u003cp\\u003eThere are three institutional ways as to how a particular decision may arrive at the ballot (Matsusaka \\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR35\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2018\\u003c/span\\u003e). The first is a mandatory referendum. A mandatory referendum is a public vote on a governmental policy that is required by law. A common example of a mandatory referendum is the fiscal referendum, i.e., that an expenditure project of the government needs the approval of the electorate if it exceeds a certain expenditure threshold. The second institution is the optional referendum or \\u0026ldquo;petition-referendum\\u0026rdquo; (Matsusaka \\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR35\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2018\\u003c/span\\u003e). In an optional referendum, voters can approve or deny a policy of the government if they are successful to collect a sufficient number of signatures constitutionally required to trigger the referendum in the first place. If the government calls a referendum by its own initiative, e.g., in order to seek the support of voters for a particular decision, this type of referendum is called a plebiscite. The third institution of direct democratic decision-making is the popular initiative. Different to the mandatory and the optional referendum, in an initiative, voters do not vote on a policy set by the government. Instead, the policy that comes to the ballot is proposed by a certain fraction of the electorate collecting a constitutionally required number of signatures to put their own policy proposal to the ballot.\\u003ca class=\\\"FNLink\\\" href=\\\"#Fn1\\\" id=\\\"#FNLinkFn1\\\"\\u003e\\u003c/a\\u003e\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eThese three instruments for the participation of voters in political decision-making can be separated along two lines. Matsusaka (\\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR35\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2018\\u003c/span\\u003e) refers to the agenda setting power and differs between the referendum where the government sets the agenda and the initiative where agenda setting moves to the electorate. A second way to categorize these institutions propose here is to differentiate between the trigger of the vote. While the mandatory referendum and the plebiscite are triggered either by law or by the government (top-down), the petition referendum and the initiative are triggered by the electorate (bottom-up). As we are interested in the degree to which voters proactively \\u003cem\\u003emake use\\u003c/em\\u003e of their direct democratic rights, we use this latter categorization. Thus, we use the number of petition-referendums and initiatives that appear at the ballots as our main empirical measure for the alertness of the electorate.\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cdiv id=\\\"Sec3\\\" class=\\\"Section2\\\"\\u003e \\u003ch2\\u003e2.1 Theoretical Differences between Petition Referendum and Initiative\\u003c/h2\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eGerber (\\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR24\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e1996\\u003c/span\\u003e), Matsusaka and McCarty (\\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR38\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2001\\u003c/span\\u003e) and Matsusaka (\\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR31\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e1995\\u003c/span\\u003e, \\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR35\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2018\\u003c/span\\u003e) show that the initiative and the petition referendum differ theoretically in the way the two institutions shift the policies of the government towards the preferences of the median voter. In particular, the initiative should bring policy closer to the preferences of the median voter than the petition referendum because of the shift in the agenda setting power from the government to the voters that call the initiative. First, transferring agenda setting to the voters shifts a policy that constitutes the alternative to the status quo from the government\\u0026rsquo;s preferred policy to that of the median voter. Second, with an initiative, voters can induce a stronger or a weaker policy than the government proposes, while a referendum is a veto instrument only effectively binding the government if the median voter prefers a weaker policy than the government. To illustrate this, consider the government plans to raise taxes. A petition-referendum would only constrain the government if the median voter prefers lower taxes than the government. If the median voter preferred higher taxes than the government, voters would not reject the proposal of the government as they prefer the proposal of the government over the status quo. With the initiative at hands, voters could propose lower as well as higher taxes than the government and shift policy in both directions. Therefore, the initiative offers voters broader opportunities to restrain government than the petition-referendum.\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eThis does not mean that the petition-referendum is not prone to restrain the government in its fiscal policy, as the government does usually not know what the preferences of the median voter are (Matsusaka and McCarty \\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR38\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2001\\u003c/span\\u003e). Thus, if a petition-referendum comes to the ballot, the government will not know whether its policy will eventually be confirmed or rejected. Although offering less possibilities to bring policy closer to median voter\\u0026rsquo;s preferences than the initiative, voters who actively use the petition-referendum can still induce major changes in the policy of the government and use the petition-referendum to exert harming or enhancing effects on the sustainability of public finances depending on the original government proposal. Hence, both institutions through which voters can proactively exert direct influence on policy decisions can effectively restrain the government, change the behavior of representatives and enhance or harm fiscal sustainability.\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/div\\u003e \\u003cdiv id=\\\"Sec4\\\" class=\\\"Section2\\\"\\u003e \\u003ch2\\u003e2.2 Direct Effects\\u003c/h2\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eHow can referendums and initiatives change fiscal policy? The obvious channel through which direct democracy influences public finances are its direct effects. A direct effect occurs, if representatives propose policies that differ from the preferences of voters (Matsusaka \\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR34\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2014\\u003c/span\\u003e). In such a case, voters can proactively use either the initiative or the petition referendum and change or reject the government\\u0026rsquo;s policy. Matsusaka (\\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR34\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2014\\u003c/span\\u003e) argues that identifying this direct effect is not simple for the initiative. To exert a direct fiscal effect, an initiative that was adopted needs to induce another policy than the one that would have prevailed without the initiative. In other words: To infer the direct effect of an adopted initiative, it needs to be ensured that without the initiative, another policy would have prevailed (Matsusaka \\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR34\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2014\\u003c/span\\u003e). Moreover, it needs to be ensured that the policy the initiative calls upon comes into effect and is not challenged by a court ruling or a lack of enforcement (Gerber et al. \\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR26\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2001\\u003c/span\\u003e, Kousser et al. \\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR29\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2008\\u003c/span\\u003e, Matsusaka \\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR34\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2014\\u003c/span\\u003e).\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/div\\u003e \\u003cdiv id=\\\"Sec5\\\" class=\\\"Section2\\\"\\u003e \\u003ch2\\u003e2.3 Indirect Effects\\u003c/h2\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eMore important than the direct effects of the two proactive direct democratic institutions are the indirect effects that they exert on the government\\u0026rsquo;s policies. As Matsusaka (\\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR35\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2018\\u003c/span\\u003e, p. 118) argues:\\u003cdiv class=\\\"BlockQuote\\\"\\u003e\\u003cp\\u003ePolicy may change not because voters approve a proposition, but because the threat of a proposition causes the government to choose a different policy. Put differently, the initiative and referendum matter simply by being available, even if they are not used.\\u003c/p\\u003e\\u003c/div\\u003e\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eThus, the government may change its policy only based on the expectation that a proactive electorate could challenge or amend it. In fact, in game-theoretic models it is \\u003cem\\u003eonly\\u003c/em\\u003e this \\u0026ldquo;threat\\u0026rdquo;-effect which is at work. Under complete information about the preferences of the median voter the government will always proactively change its policy in order to deter a petition-referendum or an initiative (Gerber \\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR24\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e1996\\u003c/span\\u003e; Matsusaka and McCarty \\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR38\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2001\\u003c/span\\u003e; Matsusaka \\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR34\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2014\\u003c/span\\u003e).\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eBesides this \\u0026ldquo;threat\\u0026rdquo;-effect, there are two other indirect effects of the initiative and the referendum which are important for our investigation. Boehmke (\\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR5\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2005\\u003c/span\\u003e) and Boehmke and Bowen (\\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR6\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2010\\u003c/span\\u003e) argue that the possibility to proactively exert influence on policy creates incentives for the formation of interest groups. Even if their policy proposals fail at the ballots, these groups influence representatives via lobbying, PR-activities or campaign contributions. In the context of this paper, this is one of the channels through which an increased use of direct popular rights could induce a worsening of fiscal sustainability, as low barriers to such rights could give small but well-organized interest groups political overrepresentation resulting in an exploitation of common fiscal resources (the fiscal commons problem).\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eMost empirical evidence, however, shows that increased participation is associated with less and not more spending (Feld and Kirchg\\u0026auml;ssner \\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR15\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2001\\u003c/span\\u003e, Feld et al. \\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR19\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2010\\u003c/span\\u003e, Funk and Gathmann \\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR22\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2011\\u003c/span\\u003e). That increased direct participation of voters in decision-making can improve policy outcomes is also supported by Smith and Tolbert (\\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR47\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2004\\u003c/span\\u003e). They show that an increased number of initiatives can have educative effects on the electorate (Matsusaka \\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR34\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2014\\u003c/span\\u003e). Being confronted with election campaigns regularly improves the knowledge of voters and enables them to hold their representatives accountable in a more effective way than uninformed voters could. Facing a tighter control, governments then pursue policies that are closer to the preferences of the electorate.\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eEmpirical evidence indicates that these indirect effects of the initiative and the referendum are severely larger than the direct effects (Matsusaka \\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR34\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2014\\u003c/span\\u003e). Therefore, Matsusaka (\\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR35\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2018\\u003c/span\\u003e) highlights that it is not possible to measure the \\u003cem\\u003eentire\\u003c/em\\u003e effect of the two institutions by only looking at the votes that appear at the ballots. Instead, the crucial point that influences policy is that representatives \\u003cem\\u003eexpect\\u003c/em\\u003e that voters will challenge or amend the government\\u0026rsquo;s policy. However, the expectations of the government that voters will use their direct democratic tools proactively may increase, if voters showed to be alert in the past. We use the example of the Swiss cantons to investigate whether governments change their fiscal policy in a way that enhances or worsens sustainability when the government has to expect that voters will intervene into its policy because they showed to be alert in the past.\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/div\\u003e\"},{\"header\":\"3. Institutional Background and Previous Findings\",\"content\":\"\\u003cp\\u003eSwitzerland provides for an interesting example of direct democracy. The constitutions of Swiss Cantons to different degrees stipulate mandatory and optional referendums as well as initiatives to involve voters in cantonal decision-making. Thus, the cantons use all of the three direct democratic instruments described above. In the context of this paper, we focus on the two bottom-up instruments which are the petition (optional) referendum and the popular initiative.\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eIn 2020, all cantonal constitutions offer the possibility to call a petition-referendum to challenge the policy of a canton\\u0026rsquo;s government. If voters collect signatures exceeding a threshold, the referendum is put to the ballot. In addition to the signature requirement, regarding fiscal referendums, some cantons implement spending thresholds. Both thresholds must be exceeded in order to bring a petition-referendum to the ballots. The second bottom-up instrument, the popular initiative, is also widely available in the cantons. With the initiative, voters can propose an entirely new law. Regarding public spending, the initiative offers a possibility to challenge projects of the government that fail to exceed the spending threshold for a petition-referendum (Feld and Matsusaka \\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR18\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2003\\u003c/span\\u003e). To bring an initiative to the ballots, the initiators need to collect a predetermined number of signatures. The higher the signature requirement is, the harder it gets for the electorate to challenge or amend government policy.\\u003ca class=\\\"FNLink\\\" href=\\\"#Fn2\\\" id=\\\"#FNLinkFn2\\\"\\u003e\\u003c/a\\u003e\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eFigure 1 shows, that voters in the cantons widely use their tools to engage in cantonal policy and to interfere with their governments. However, the use of the instruments varies between the cantons. During the past 40 years, the voters in Zurich showed to be most active, bringing on average four votes per year to the ballots. The least number of votes are called in Grisons, where voters on average only call for a vote once every two years.\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eAccording to the empirical literature, both the referendum and the initiative have effects on cantonal fiscal policy. Existing evidence shows that referendums on fiscal policy issues lead to lower cantonal expenditures (Feld and Matsusaka \\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR18\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2003\\u003c/span\\u003e; Funk and Gathmann \\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR22\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2011\\u003c/span\\u003e, \\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR23\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2013\\u003c/span\\u003e) and revenues (Feld and Kirchg\\u0026auml;ssner \\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR15\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2001\\u003c/span\\u003e, \\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR17\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2007\\u003c/span\\u003e; Schaltegger \\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR46\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2002\\u003c/span\\u003e; Freitag and Vatter \\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR21\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2006\\u003c/span\\u003e). However, as revenues are reduced slightly more than expenditures, the existing evidence shows that the referendum has at best none (Schaltegger \\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR46\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2002\\u003c/span\\u003e; Feld and Kirchg\\u0026auml;ssner \\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR17\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2007\\u003c/span\\u003e) or even increasing (Feld and Kirchg\\u0026auml;ssner \\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR15\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2001\\u003c/span\\u003e) effects on cantonal deficits. Although these studies do not report deficit-reducing effects of fiscal referendums, they find that fiscal referendums are associated with lower public debt. This could be the outcome of accounting provisions leading to stock-flow adjustments, i.e., some fiscal operations are not included in the budgetary accounts but are included in the net asset calculation. Kirchg\\u0026auml;ssner (\\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR28\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2013\\u003c/span\\u003e) offers another explanation and argues that public debt is lower in the presence of referendums because fiscal referendums are institutions that are constant over time, showing rather long-run effects on debt than short-run effects on deficits. A third explanation is provided by Feld and Kirchg\\u0026auml;ssner (\\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR16\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2005\\u003c/span\\u003e) who argue that fiscal referendums are prone to limit the overall volumes of the public budget. Thus, even if deficits are increased, the amounts of accumulated deficits are lower if the overall budget is lower.\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e \\u003cb\\u003eFigure 1: Number of Population-Triggered Votes in the Swiss Cantons 1977\\u0026ndash;2017\\u003c/b\\u003e \\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e \\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e \\u003cstrong\\u003eSource\\u003c/strong\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eOwn depiction based on Center for Democracy Studies Aarau.\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eFor the initiative, existing empirical results are similar. Feld and Matsusaka (\\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR18\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2003\\u003c/span\\u003e) find that lower signature requirements to launch an initiative are associated with lower cantonal spending. Funk and Gathmann (\\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR22\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2011\\u003c/span\\u003e) confirm this result, however with a smaller magnitude. That lower barriers to initiatives also induce revenue-reducing effects is shown by Freitag and Vatter (\\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR21\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2006\\u003c/span\\u003e) and Funk and Gathmann (\\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR22\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2011\\u003c/span\\u003e). A different effect of the initiative is found by Burret and Feld (\\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR11\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2018\\u003c/span\\u003e) presenting evidence that lower thresholds to launch an initiative are associated with more spending and revenue of cantons. Taken together, existing evidence on the initiative and the referendum shows effects on spending and revenues, while most of the papers find reducing effects on both. There is, however, no clear pattern which side of the budget is changed more and, thus, how these tools may help to explain the long-run sustainability of cantonal public finances.\\u003c/p\\u003e\"},{\"header\":\"4. Linking Fiscal Sustainability and Direct Democracy\",\"content\":\"\\u003cp\\u003eTheoretically, an analysis of the sustainability of public finances starts with the intertemporal budget constraint of the government according to which the outstanding debt to GDP ratio \\u003cspan class=\\\"InlineEquation\\\"\\u003e\\u003cspan class=\\\"mathinline\\\"\\u003e\\\\({d}_{0}\\\\)\\u003c/span\\u003e\\u003c/span\\u003e has to equal all future discounted primary surpluses plus the discounted future debt to GDP ratio (Bohn \\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR10\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2008\\u003c/span\\u003e):\\u003cdiv id=\\\"Equ1\\\" class=\\\"Equation\\\"\\u003e\\u003cdiv format=\\\"TEX\\\" class=\\\"mathdisplay\\\" id=\\\"FileID_Equ1\\\" name=\\\"EquationSource\\\"\\u003e\\n$${d}_{0}= - \\\\sum _{t=1}^{\\\\infty }{\\\\left(\\\\frac{1+y}{1+r}\\\\right)}^{t} {p}_{t}+ \\\\underset{{T }\\\\to { \\\\infty }}{\\\\text{lim}}{\\\\left(\\\\frac{1+y}{1+r}\\\\right)}^{T} {d}_{T}$$\\u003c/div\\u003e\\u003cdiv class=\\\"EquationNumber\\\"\\u003e1\\u003c/div\\u003e\\u003c/div\\u003e\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eIn order to meet the intertemporal budget constraint, two conditions must be met. According to the first expression on the right-hand-side of Eq.\\u0026nbsp;1, today\\u0026rsquo;s debt to GDP ratio \\u003cspan class=\\\"InlineEquation\\\"\\u003e\\u003cspan class=\\\"mathinline\\\"\\u003e\\\\({d}_{0}\\\\)\\u003c/span\\u003e\\u003c/span\\u003e has to equal all discounted future primary surpluses \\u003cspan class=\\\"InlineEquation\\\"\\u003e\\u003cspan class=\\\"mathinline\\\"\\u003e\\\\({p}_{t}\\\\)\\u003c/span\\u003e\\u003c/span\\u003e, with \\u003cem\\u003ey\\u003c/em\\u003e depicting the growth rate of real GDP and \\u003cem\\u003er\\u003c/em\\u003e the real interest rate. The second expression on the right-hand-side of Eq.\\u0026nbsp;1 is the transversality or \\u0026ldquo;no-Ponzi\\u0026rdquo; condition requiring that the discounted debt to GDP ratio \\u003cspan class=\\\"InlineEquation\\\"\\u003e\\u003cspan class=\\\"mathinline\\\"\\u003e\\\\({d}_{T}\\\\)\\u003c/span\\u003e\\u003c/span\\u003e has to converge to zero if the number of years \\u003cem\\u003et\\u003c/em\\u003e approaches infinity. Empirical approaches to assess debt sustainability pick up these two theoretical conditions.\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eTo analyze the sustainability of decentralized public finances in Switzerland and the effects that an alert electorate may have on it, we estimate fiscal reaction functions of the cantons following Bohn (\\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR10\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2008\\u003c/span\\u003e). Estimating the government\\u0026rsquo;s fiscal reaction to an increase in its debt to GDP ratio is straightforward in order to assess the sustainability of public finances (Bohn 1996, \\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR9\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2007\\u003c/span\\u003e, \\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR10\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2008\\u003c/span\\u003e). The theoretical reasoning behind this approach is that if the government did not react to an increased debt to GDP ratio by adapting its primary surplus in the subsequent year, its debt stock would continue to rise as \\u003cem\\u003et\\u003c/em\\u003e approaches infinity and thus fiscal sustainability could not be ensured (Bohn \\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR10\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2008\\u003c/span\\u003e). In this case, the government would violate its intertemporal budget constraint (Bohn \\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR7\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e1995\\u003c/span\\u003e, D\\u0026rsquo;Erasmo et al. 2016, Feld et al. \\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR20\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2020\\u003c/span\\u003e). Note, that this approach requires that both the debt stock and the primary surplus are expressed in terms of GDP to encounter the effects of GDP fluctuations on the sustainability of a jurisdiction\\u0026rsquo;s public finances. Moreover, to consider the effects of interest rate fluctuations on fiscal sustainability, it is the primary surplus that needs to be included as dependent variable in the empirical analysis.\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cdiv id=\\\"Sec8\\\" class=\\\"Section2\\\"\\u003e \\u003ch2\\u003e4.1 Empirical Framework\\u003c/h2\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eGiven these considerations, our approach to assess the sustainability of cantonal public finances is to estimate a fiscal reaction function (FRF) for the cantons that takes the form\\u003cdiv id=\\\"Equ2\\\" class=\\\"Equation\\\"\\u003e\\u003cdiv format=\\\"TEX\\\" class=\\\"mathdisplay\\\" id=\\\"FileID_Equ2\\\" name=\\\"EquationSource\\\"\\u003e\\n$${Primary Surplus}_{ i,t}= \\\\rho {Public Debt}_{i, t-1}+ \\\\beta {Controls}_{ i, t}+ {Primary Surplus}_{ i,t-1}+ {\\\\delta }_{i}+ {u}_{i, t}$$\\u003c/div\\u003e\\u003cdiv class=\\\"EquationNumber\\\"\\u003e1\\u003c/div\\u003e\\u003c/div\\u003e\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003ewhere the dependent variable is the primary surplus of canton \\u003cem\\u003ei\\u003c/em\\u003e in relation to GDP in year \\u003cem\\u003et\\u003c/em\\u003e. Our key explanatory variable is the canton\\u0026rsquo;s debt to GDP ratio of the previous year \\u003cem\\u003et-1\\u003c/em\\u003e. The coefficient of interest is \\u003cem\\u003eρ\\u003c/em\\u003e which indicates whether cantonal politicians adapt the budget balance after the cantonal debt increased (Bohn \\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR8\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e1998\\u003c/span\\u003e). A positive and significant coefficient indicates that politicians react to an increase in the debt to GDP ratio by increasing the canton\\u0026rsquo;s primary surplus in the subsequent year. In this case, a canton\\u0026rsquo;s intertemporal budget constraint would be fulfilled.\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eTo estimate whether the extent to which voters use their direct democratic rights explains part of the fiscal reaction of the government, we add an interaction term of our reaction coefficient and the number of population-triggered votes that took place in the canton in the previous year. Thus, we amend our baseline equation in the following way\\u003cdiv id=\\\"Equa\\\" class=\\\"Equation\\\"\\u003e\\u003cdiv format=\\\"TEX\\\" class=\\\"mathdisplay\\\" id=\\\"FileID_Equa\\\" name=\\\"EquationSource\\\"\\u003e\\n$${Primary Surplus}_{ i,t}= \\\\rho {Public Debt}_{i, t-1}+ \\\\alpha {Number of Votes }_{i, t-1}+$$\\u003c/div\\u003e\\u003c/div\\u003e\\u003cdiv id=\\\"Equ3\\\" class=\\\"Equation\\\"\\u003e\\u003cdiv format=\\\"TEX\\\" class=\\\"mathdisplay\\\" id=\\\"FileID_Equ3\\\" name=\\\"EquationSource\\\"\\u003e\\n$$\\\\gamma {Public Debt}_{i, t-1}*{Number of Votes}_{i,t-1 }+ \\\\beta {Controls}_{ i, t}+ { Primary Surplus}_{ i,t-1}+ {\\\\delta }_{i}+ {u}_{i, t}$$\\u003c/div\\u003e\\u003cdiv class=\\\"EquationNumber\\\"\\u003e2\\u003c/div\\u003e\\u003c/div\\u003e\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eOur coefficient of interest now is \\u003cem\\u003eγ\\u003c/em\\u003e, indicating whether the number of referendums and initiatives that were effectively triggered by the electorate in the previous year has an effect on the slope of the government\\u0026rsquo;s FRF and thus, on its reaction to an increase in the debt to GDP ratio. A positive and significant \\u003cem\\u003eγ\\u003c/em\\u003e indicates an increased slope of the cantonal FRF and, thus, a stronger fiscal reaction due to the number of population-triggered votes. We include canton-fixed effects \\u003cspan class=\\\"InlineEquation\\\"\\u003e\\u003cspan class=\\\"mathinline\\\"\\u003e\\\\({\\\\delta }_{i}\\\\)\\u003c/span\\u003e\\u003c/span\\u003e in our regression estimating the effects of a changing number of population-triggered votes within each canton and use a generalized difference-in-differences approach for identification (Burret and Feld \\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR11\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2018\\u003c/span\\u003e).\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eWe include two additional explanatory variables to control for variations in the primary surplus caused by the business cycle or by other events that would cause extraordinary public spending. We follow Bohn (\\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR10\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2008\\u003c/span\\u003e), Mendoza and Ostry (\\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR39\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2008\\u003c/span\\u003e) and Feld et al. (\\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR20\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2020\\u003c/span\\u003e) and include explanatory variables taken from the closed solution of Barro\\u0026rsquo;s tax smoothing model (Barro \\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR2\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e1981\\u003c/span\\u003e, \\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR3\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e1986\\u003c/span\\u003e) that reflect temporary fluctuations in output (YVAR) and spending (GVAR) taking the following form\\u003cdiv id=\\\"Equ4\\\" class=\\\"Equation\\\"\\u003e\\u003cdiv format=\\\"TEX\\\" class=\\\"mathdisplay\\\" id=\\\"FileID_Equ4\\\" name=\\\"EquationSource\\\"\\u003e\\n$${YVAR}_{i,t}=\\\\left(1- \\\\frac{{Y}_{t}}{{Y}_{t}^{T}}\\\\right)* \\\\frac{{G}_{t}^{T}}{{Y}_{t}}$$\\u003c/div\\u003e\\u003cdiv class=\\\"EquationNumber\\\"\\u003e3a\\u003c/div\\u003e\\u003c/div\\u003e\\u003cdiv id=\\\"Equ5\\\" class=\\\"Equation\\\"\\u003e\\u003cdiv format=\\\"TEX\\\" class=\\\"mathdisplay\\\" id=\\\"FileID_Equ5\\\" name=\\\"EquationSource\\\"\\u003e\\n$${GVAR}_{i,t}= \\\\frac{({G}_{t}- {G}_{t}^{T})}{{Y}_{t}^{T}}$$\\u003c/div\\u003e\\u003cdiv class=\\\"EquationNumber\\\"\\u003e3b\\u003c/div\\u003e\\u003c/div\\u003e\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003ewhere \\u003cspan class=\\\"InlineEquation\\\"\\u003e\\u003cspan class=\\\"mathinline\\\"\\u003e\\\\({Y}_{t}\\\\)\\u003c/span\\u003e\\u003c/span\\u003e stands for cantonal imputed GDP and \\u003cspan class=\\\"InlineEquation\\\"\\u003e\\u003cspan class=\\\"mathinline\\\"\\u003e\\\\({G}_{t}\\\\)\\u003c/span\\u003e\\u003c/span\\u003e for cantonal expenditures. \\u003cspan class=\\\"InlineEquation\\\"\\u003e\\u003cspan class=\\\"mathinline\\\"\\u003e\\\\({Y}_{t}^{T}\\\\)\\u003c/span\\u003e\\u003c/span\\u003eand \\u003cspan class=\\\"InlineEquation\\\"\\u003e\\u003cspan class=\\\"mathinline\\\"\\u003e\\\\({G}_{t}^{T}\\\\)\\u003c/span\\u003e\\u003c/span\\u003e are the respective trend variables which are calculated using a standard Hodrick-Prescott (1997) filter using a smoothing parameter of 100 (Feld et al. \\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR20\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2020\\u003c/span\\u003e).\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eFiscal policy is persistent (Claeys \\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR12\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2006\\u003c/span\\u003e). This is why Feld et al. (\\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR20\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2020\\u003c/span\\u003e) and Theofilakou and Stournaras (\\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR48\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2012\\u003c/span\\u003e) argue that a lagged dependent variable should be included when FRF are estimated over a long period to control for unobserved persistence that would otherwise lead to omitted variable bias. An additional reason why controlling for persistency is important are fiscal preferences. Schaltegger (\\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR46\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2002\\u003c/span\\u003e), Krogstrup and W\\u0026auml;lti (\\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR30\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2008\\u003c/span\\u003e) and Funk and Gathmann (\\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR22\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2011\\u003c/span\\u003e, \\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR23\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2013\\u003c/span\\u003e) argue that fiscal preferences of the electorate may lead to an endogeneity problem if they influence the engagement of voters and the primary surplus simultaneously. Therefore, including a lagged dependent variable in combination with canton-fixed effects serves as a first control for persistency and unobserved fiscal preferences.\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/div\\u003e \\u003cdiv id=\\\"Sec9\\\" class=\\\"Section2\\\"\\u003e \\u003ch2\\u003e4.2 Data\\u003c/h2\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eOur panel dataset covers 25 of the 26 Swiss cantons over the period between 1977 and 2017, which gives us 1,025 observations.\\u003ca class=\\\"FNLink\\\" href=\\\"#Fn3\\\" id=\\\"#FNLinkFn3\\\"\\u003e\\u003c/a\\u003e Data for cantonal debt to GDP ratios, revenues, expenditures and interest spending comes from the Swiss Federal Statistical Office and the cantonal public finance reports. We impute cantonal GDP by weighting national GDP based on cantonal population numbers. Thus, we assume identical per-capita productivity within and across cantons. Although this is a strong assumption, we opted for this procedure due to the limitations of cantonal GDP data which stems from insufficient cantonal export and import data. Fiscal data for the aggregate of the 25 cantons is depicted in Fig.\\u0026nbsp;2.\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e \\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e \\u003cstrong\\u003eSource\\u003c/strong\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eOwn depiction based on Swiss Federal Federal Statistics Office.\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eData on referendums and initiatives within each canton is taken from the \\u0026ldquo;Database on Citizen\\u0026rsquo;s Initiatives\\u0026rdquo; provided by the Center for Democracy Studies Aarau. This database contains information on all initiatives and petition-referendums on the cantonal level that came to the ballot since 1976. Using this dataset, we are able to analyze the effects of 1,634 population-triggered votes on fiscal sustainability in 25 cantons over a 40 years period. We can separate these votes into 824 petition-referendums, 735 initiatives and 75 cantonal assemblies. For the period since 1986, the database provides complete additional information on the turnout and results of all votes. Thus, for the 30 years period between 1987 and 2017 we can estimate whether a vote successfully influenced policy.\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/div\\u003e \\u003cdiv id=\\\"Sec10\\\" class=\\\"Section2\\\"\\u003e \\u003ch2\\u003e4.3 Estimator\\u003c/h2\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eReaching from urban Zurich to rural Grisons, from wealthy Zug to economically-weak Uri, the 25 cantons are structurally and politically diverse. This diversity is likely to cause not one uniform, but 25 heterogenous fiscal reaction functions. To account for this heterogeneity, we follow Feld et al. (\\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR20\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2020\\u003c/span\\u003e) and use Pesaran\\u0026rsquo;s Common Correlated Effects Mean Group (CCEMG) estimator (Pesaran \\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR41\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2004\\u003c/span\\u003e, \\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR42\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2006\\u003c/span\\u003e) for our panel estimations of cantonal fiscal policy. The CCEMG-estimator amends for every canton \\u003cem\\u003ei\\u003c/em\\u003e all variables with the cross-sectional means of the \\u003cem\\u003eN-i\\u003c/em\\u003e other cantons as further explanatory variables. The mean group itself then reflects the average effect of all canton-individual estimates, yielding the estimate for the panel as a whole. Conceptually, this procedure is equivalent to a two-way fixed-effects estimation and thus a generalized difference in differences approach. However, CCEMG-estimates go beyond the simple inclusion of canton and time fixed effects. Instead, the estimator allows for multiple slopes of cantonal fiscal reaction functions through controlling for time-invariant canton-individual unobservables while it simultaneously allows for time-variant unobserved common factors and, thus, for cross-cantonal correlations such as the economic downturn in the 1990s or following the year 2008.\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/div\\u003e\"},{\"header\":\"5. Results\",\"content\":\"\\u003cp\\u003eResults for the estimated fiscal reaction function of the Swiss cantons are reported in Table\\u0026nbsp;1. We find a positive significant reaction of cantonal fiscal policy on an increase in the cantonal debt to GDP ratio for the period since 1977. This indicates that cantonal governments service the intertemporal budget constraint by increasing their primary surplus after experiencing an increase in their canton\\u0026rsquo;s debt to GDP ratio. The lagged primary surplus is statistically and economically highly significant which is evidence in favor of our hypothesis of persistency in cantonal fiscal policies. Besides fluctuations in output and expenditures, existing evidence shows that fiscal rules exert effects on the budget balance of the cantons. Therefore, it could be the case that fiscal reactions are triggered by the introduction of fiscal rules and not by increases in the debt to GDP ratio. In column 3 we include the fiscal rule index of Burret and Feld (\\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR11\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2018\\u003c/span\\u003e) as additional control variable that could influence the primary surplus. We find a positive effect of fiscal rules on the primary surplus. However, our fiscal reaction coefficient remains positive and statistically significant.\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cdiv id=\\\"Sec12\\\" class=\\\"Section2\\\"\\u003e \\u003ch2\\u003e5.1 Effects of Referendums and Initiatives on Fiscal Reactions\\u003c/h2\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eThe estimates of fiscal reaction of Swiss cantons to an increase in their debt to GDP ratios show that the cantons run sustainable fiscal policies. They react to an increase in their debt to GDP ratios by increasing their primary surpluses. In columns 3 and 7, we include an interaction term between the lagged debt to GDP ratio of a canton and the number of popular votes that have been triggered by the electorate in the previous year. We continue to find a positive fiscal reaction coefficient and, thus, evidence in favor of fiscal sustainability if we amend our model regarding the effects of a proactive electorate.\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e \\u003cdiv class=\\\"gridtable\\\"\\u003e\\u003ctable float=\\\"Yes\\\" id=\\\"Tab1\\\" border=\\\"1\\\"\\u003e \\u003ccaption language=\\\"En\\\"\\u003e \\u003cdiv class=\\\"CaptionNumber\\\"\\u003eTable 1\\u003c/div\\u003e \\u003cdiv class=\\\"CaptionContent\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eBaseline Effect of Bottom-up Votes on the Fiscal Reaction Function of Cantonal Governments\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/div\\u003e \\u003c/caption\\u003e \\u003ccolgroup cols=\\\"10\\\"\\u003e \\u003cdiv align=\\\"left\\\" class=\\\"colspec\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\" colnum=\\\"1\\\"\\u003e\\u003c/div\\u003e \\u003cdiv align=\\\"left\\\" class=\\\"colspec\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\" colnum=\\\"2\\\"\\u003e\\u003c/div\\u003e \\u003cdiv align=\\\"left\\\" class=\\\"colspec\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\" colnum=\\\"3\\\"\\u003e\\u003c/div\\u003e \\u003cdiv align=\\\"left\\\" class=\\\"colspec\\\" colname=\\\"c4\\\" colnum=\\\"4\\\"\\u003e\\u003c/div\\u003e \\u003cdiv align=\\\"left\\\" class=\\\"colspec\\\" colname=\\\"c5\\\" colnum=\\\"5\\\"\\u003e\\u003c/div\\u003e \\u003cdiv align=\\\"left\\\" class=\\\"colspec\\\" colname=\\\"c6\\\" colnum=\\\"6\\\"\\u003e\\u003c/div\\u003e \\u003cdiv align=\\\"left\\\" class=\\\"colspec\\\" colname=\\\"c7\\\" colnum=\\\"7\\\"\\u003e\\u003c/div\\u003e \\u003cdiv align=\\\"left\\\" class=\\\"colspec\\\" colname=\\\"c8\\\" colnum=\\\"8\\\"\\u003e\\u003c/div\\u003e \\u003cdiv align=\\\"left\\\" class=\\\"colspec\\\" colname=\\\"c9\\\" colnum=\\\"9\\\"\\u003e\\u003c/div\\u003e \\u003cdiv align=\\\"left\\\" class=\\\"colspec\\\" colname=\\\"c10\\\" colnum=\\\"10\\\"\\u003e\\u003c/div\\u003e \\u003cthead\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003cth align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/th\\u003e \\u003cth align=\\\"left\\\" colspan=\\\"4\\\" nameend=\\\"c5\\\" namest=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e1977\\u0026ndash;2017\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/th\\u003e \\u003cth align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c6\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/th\\u003e \\u003cth align=\\\"left\\\" colspan=\\\"4\\\" nameend=\\\"c10\\\" namest=\\\"c7\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e1987\\u0026ndash;2017\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/th\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003c/thead\\u003e \\u003ctbody\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(1)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(2)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c4\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(3)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c5\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(4)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c6\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c7\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(5)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c8\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(6)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c9\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(7)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c10\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(8)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eLagged Debt\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.025**\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.012)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.048**\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.022)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c4\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.046*\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.026)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c5\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.065**\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.029)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c6\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c7\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.071***\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.017)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c8\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.123***\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.028)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c9\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.093***\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.034)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c10\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.152***\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.035)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eLagged Debt*No. of Bottom-up Votes\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c4\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.008*\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.005)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c5\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.010**\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.004)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c6\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c7\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c8\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c9\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.019***\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.006)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c10\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.017**\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.008)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eNumber of Bottom-up Votes\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c4\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-0.001**\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.000)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c5\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-0.001***\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.000)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c6\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c7\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c8\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c9\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-0.002***\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.001)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c10\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-0.002***\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.001)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eYVAR\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e2.345***\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.795)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e1.596**\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.724)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c4\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e1.212*\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.713)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c5\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.760\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.703)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c6\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c7\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e1.739**\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.691)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c8\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.723\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.902)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c9\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-0.155\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.951)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c10\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.475\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.739)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eGVAR\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-0.780***\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.240)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-0.835***\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.222)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c4\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-0.790***\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.208)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c5\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-0.755***\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.202)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c6\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c7\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-1.181***\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.331)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c8\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-1.158***\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.292)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c9\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-1.126***\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.287)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c10\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-1.210***\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.343)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003ePrimary Surplus (t-1)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.260***\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.044)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.888***\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.134)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c4\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.140***\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.048)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c5\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.077\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.049)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c6\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c7\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.214***\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.047)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c8\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.093**\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.042)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c9\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.069\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.048)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c10\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.018\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.037)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eFiscal Rule Index\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.002*\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.001)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c4\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.002**\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.001)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c5\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.002*\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.001)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c6\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c7\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c8\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.001\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.001)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c9\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.002*\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.001)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c10\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.001\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.002)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eSquared change of debt\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c4\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c5\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.066\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.313)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c6\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c7\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c8\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c9\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c10\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e1.364*\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.787)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eF-Test: Joint Sign. of Bottom-up Votes\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c4\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e4.47**\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c5\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e6.73***\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c6\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c7\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c8\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c9\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e11.39***\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c10\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e12.18***\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eCSA Controls\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eYes\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eYes\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c4\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eYes\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c5\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eYes\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c6\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c7\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eYes\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c8\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eYes\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c9\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eYes\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c10\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eYes\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eCantons\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e25\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e25\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c4\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e25\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c5\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e25\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c6\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c7\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e25\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c8\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e25\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c9\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e25\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c10\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e25\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eYears\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e41\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e41\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c4\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e41\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c5\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e41\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c6\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c7\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e31\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c8\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e31\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c9\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e31\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c10\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e31\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eN\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e1,025\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e1,025\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c4\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e1,025\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c5\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e1,025\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c6\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c7\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e775\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c8\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e775\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c9\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e775\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c10\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e775\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003c/tbody\\u003e \\u003c/colgroup\\u003e \\u003c/table\\u003e\\u003c/div\\u003e \\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eDependent variable: Primary Surplus relative to imputed cantonal GDP. Effects are estimated with Pesaran\\u0026rsquo;s (\\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR42\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2006\\u003c/span\\u003e) CCEMG estimator that controls for cross-sectional-dependence and time variant unobservables with heterogenous impact across panels. We use the Stata routine xtmg. F-Test of joint significance show Chi2 coefficients and indicate the joint effects of lagged debt and number of bottom-up votes and the interaction of both.\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eThis indicates that even if the electorate is not using its direct popular rights, the cantons run sustainable fiscal policies. This does, however, not mean that we could rule out an effect of direct democratic institutions on fiscal reactions. As shown by Matsusaka (\\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR34\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2014\\u003c/span\\u003e, \\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR35\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2018\\u003c/span\\u003e), even if the direct democratic provisions are not used by the electorate, they can have an effect on fiscal policy by exerting a \\u0026ldquo;threat\\u0026rdquo;-effect only because they are available and could be used potentially.\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eHowever, the question we are interested in is: Does this \\u0026ldquo;threat\\u0026rdquo;-effect increase, if the direct democratic institutions are indeed used? The interaction between the number of votes triggered by the electorate and the lagged debt to GDP ratio is positive and statistically significant, while the fiscal reaction coefficient becomes smaller compared to the model without the interaction term. Therefore, our results show that parts of the fiscal reaction to increased debt to GDP ratios can be explained by the number of population-triggered votes that came to the ballot in the previous year. Our estimations indicate that with every population-triggered vote that arrived at the ballot, cantonal governments increased their primary surplus by additional 0.008 to 0.019 percentage points of imputed cantonal GDP to counteract an increase in their debt to GDP ratio. In 2017, this would correspond to a per capita increase in a canton\\u0026rsquo;s primary surplus of 6 to 15 Swiss franc per ballot.\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eIn columns 4 and 8 we include the squared deviation of cantonal debt from its mean in order to consider non-linearities in debt development. Our results on cantonal fiscal sustainability and of the effect of an alert electorate on fiscal reactions of governments hold, now indicating an additional fiscal reaction to increased debt of 0.010 to 0.017 percentage points of imputed GDP for every population-triggered vote.\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/div\\u003e \\u003cdiv id=\\\"Sec13\\\" class=\\\"Section2\\\"\\u003e \\u003ch2\\u003e5.2 Considering Time-Variant Expenditure Preferences\\u003c/h2\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eFunk and Gathmann (\\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR22\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2011\\u003c/span\\u003e, \\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR23\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2013\\u003c/span\\u003e) find smaller effects of direct democratic institutions on cantonal fiscal outcomes if they include fiscal preferences of the electorate into their empirical analysis. They show that fiscal preferences of voters vary considerably between the cantons and are systematically correlated with fiscal institutions. In particular, they find that voters in cantons with strong direct democratic institutions are fiscally more conservative than voters in cantons with weaker direct democratic provisions. For our analysis, these findings imply that not sufficiently accounting for the fiscal preferences of the electorate could lead to an omitted variable bias. Cantons with stronger direct democratic institutions impose lower barriers for the electorate to trigger popular votes, while the number of votes that come to the ballots is higher in cantons with low barriers to call a vote. Thus, our estimates of the effects of an alert electorate could simply reflect differing fiscal preferences between the cantons\\u0026rsquo; electorates if we did not sufficiently account for them. One possibility to incorporate fiscal preferences of voters into the analysis of cantonal fiscal policy proposed by Funk and Gathmann (\\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR22\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2011\\u003c/span\\u003e, \\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR23\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2013\\u003c/span\\u003e) is to include canton-fixed effects into the estimated model. This is one of the reasons why we use the CCEMG-estimator that attains its panel estimate out of 25 canton-individual estimation effects and accounts for time-invariant unobserved heterogeneity of the cantons, such as fiscal preferences. Conceptually, this is equivalent to an inclusion of canton fixed effects.\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e \\u003cdiv class=\\\"gridtable\\\"\\u003e\\u003ctable float=\\\"Yes\\\" id=\\\"Tab2\\\" border=\\\"1\\\"\\u003e \\u003ccaption language=\\\"En\\\"\\u003e \\u003cdiv class=\\\"CaptionNumber\\\"\\u003eTable 2\\u003c/div\\u003e \\u003cdiv class=\\\"CaptionContent\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eEffect of Bottom-up Votes on the Fiscal Reaction Function of Cantonal Governments including Expenditure Preferences\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/div\\u003e \\u003c/caption\\u003e \\u003ccolgroup cols=\\\"10\\\"\\u003e \\u003cdiv align=\\\"left\\\" class=\\\"colspec\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\" colnum=\\\"1\\\"\\u003e\\u003c/div\\u003e \\u003cdiv align=\\\"left\\\" class=\\\"colspec\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\" colnum=\\\"2\\\"\\u003e\\u003c/div\\u003e \\u003cdiv align=\\\"left\\\" class=\\\"colspec\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\" colnum=\\\"3\\\"\\u003e\\u003c/div\\u003e \\u003cdiv align=\\\"left\\\" class=\\\"colspec\\\" colname=\\\"c4\\\" colnum=\\\"4\\\"\\u003e\\u003c/div\\u003e \\u003cdiv align=\\\"left\\\" class=\\\"colspec\\\" colname=\\\"c5\\\" colnum=\\\"5\\\"\\u003e\\u003c/div\\u003e \\u003cdiv align=\\\"left\\\" class=\\\"colspec\\\" colname=\\\"c6\\\" colnum=\\\"6\\\"\\u003e\\u003c/div\\u003e \\u003cdiv align=\\\"left\\\" class=\\\"colspec\\\" colname=\\\"c7\\\" colnum=\\\"7\\\"\\u003e\\u003c/div\\u003e \\u003cdiv align=\\\"left\\\" class=\\\"colspec\\\" colname=\\\"c8\\\" colnum=\\\"8\\\"\\u003e\\u003c/div\\u003e \\u003cdiv align=\\\"left\\\" class=\\\"colspec\\\" colname=\\\"c9\\\" colnum=\\\"9\\\"\\u003e\\u003c/div\\u003e \\u003cdiv align=\\\"left\\\" class=\\\"colspec\\\" colname=\\\"c10\\\" colnum=\\\"10\\\"\\u003e\\u003c/div\\u003e \\u003cthead\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003cth align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/th\\u003e \\u003cth align=\\\"left\\\" colspan=\\\"4\\\" nameend=\\\"c5\\\" namest=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e1977\\u0026ndash;2017\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/th\\u003e \\u003cth align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c6\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/th\\u003e \\u003cth align=\\\"left\\\" colspan=\\\"4\\\" nameend=\\\"c10\\\" namest=\\\"c7\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e1987\\u0026ndash;2017\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/th\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003c/thead\\u003e \\u003ctbody\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colspan=\\\"2\\\" nameend=\\\"c3\\\" namest=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eTime Trend\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colspan=\\\"2\\\" nameend=\\\"c5\\\" namest=\\\"c4\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003ePreferences Variable\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c6\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colspan=\\\"2\\\" nameend=\\\"c8\\\" namest=\\\"c7\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eTime Trend\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colspan=\\\"2\\\" nameend=\\\"c10\\\" namest=\\\"c9\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003ePreferences Variable\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(1)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(2)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c4\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(3)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c5\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(4)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c6\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c7\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(5)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c8\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(6)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c9\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(7)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c10\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(8)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eLagged Debt\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.043\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.031)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.077**\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.035)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c4\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.054**\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.027)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c5\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.070**\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.030)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c6\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c7\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.081**\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.036)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c8\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.140***\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.038)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c9\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.103***\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.032)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c10\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.156***\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.038)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eLagged Debt*No. of Bottom-up Votes\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.010**\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.005)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.011*\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.006)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c4\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.008**\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.004)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c5\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.011**\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.004)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c6\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c7\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.023***\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.008)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c8\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.022**\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.010)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c9\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.019***\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.007)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c10\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.018**\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.009)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eNumber of Bottom-up Votes\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-0.001**\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.000)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-0.001**\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.000)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c4\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-0.001**\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.000)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c5\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-0.001***\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.000)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c6\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c7\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-0.002***\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.008)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c8\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-0.002***\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.001)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c9\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-0.002**\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.001)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c10\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-0.002**\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.001)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eYVAR\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e1.056\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.702)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.847\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.702)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c4\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e1.287*\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.774)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c5\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.722\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.699)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c6\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c7\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-0.237\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(1.305)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c8\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.086\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.808)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c9\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-0.099\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.921)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c10\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.768\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.838)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eGVAR\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-0.799***\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.216)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-0.759***\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.204)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c4\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-0.820***\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.232)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c5\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-0.767***\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.219)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c6\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c7\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-1.129***\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.278)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c8\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-1.177***\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.309)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c9\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-1.132***\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.302)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c10\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-1.169***\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.341)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003ePrimary Surplus (t-1)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.088**\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.041)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.018\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.006)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c4\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.147***\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.047)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c5\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.073\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.052)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c6\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c7\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.005\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.040)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c8\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-0.038\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.043)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c9\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.073\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.051)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c10\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.018\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.043)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eFiscal Rule Index\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.003*\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.001)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.002\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.002)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c4\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.003**\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.001)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c5\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.003*\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.001)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c6\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c7\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.001\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.002)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c8\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.000\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.000)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c9\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.003*\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.001)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c10\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.002\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.002)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eSquared change of debt\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-0.132\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.437)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c4\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c5\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.139\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.326)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c6\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c7\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c8\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e1.122*\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.661)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c9\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c10\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e1.260\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.922)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eExpenditure Preferences of Voters\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c4\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-0.010\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.013)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c5\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-0.007\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.012)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c6\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c7\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c8\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c9\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-0.022\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.019)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c10\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-0.008\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.021)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eF-Test: Joint Sign. of Bottom-up Votes\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e3.53**\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e6.41**\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c4\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e5.50**\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c5\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e6.91***\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c6\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c7\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e8.24***\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c8\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e10.21**\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c9\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e13.08***\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c10\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e9.86***\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eCantonal Time Trend\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eYes\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eYes\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c4\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eNo\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c5\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eNo\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c6\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c7\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eYes\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c8\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eYes\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c9\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eNo\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c10\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eNo\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eCSA Controls\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eYes\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eYes\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c4\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eYes\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c5\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eYes\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c6\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c7\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eYes\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c8\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eYes\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c9\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eYes\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c10\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eYes\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eCantons\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e25\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e25\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c4\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e25\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c5\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e25\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c6\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c7\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e25\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c8\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e25\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c9\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e25\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c10\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e25\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eYears\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e41\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e41\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c4\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e41\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c5\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e41\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c6\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c7\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e31\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c8\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e31\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c9\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e31\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c10\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e31\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eN\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e1,025\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e1,025\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c4\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e1,025\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c5\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e1,025\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c6\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c7\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e775\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c8\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e775\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c9\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e775\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c10\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e775\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003c/tbody\\u003e \\u003c/colgroup\\u003e \\u003c/table\\u003e\\u003c/div\\u003e \\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eDependent variable: Primary Surplus relative to imputed cantonal GDP. Effects are estimated with Pesaran\\u0026rsquo;s (\\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR42\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2006\\u003c/span\\u003e) CCEMG estimator that controls for cross-sectional-dependence and time variant unobservables with heterogenous impact across panels. We use the Stata routine xtmg. F-Test of joint significance show Chi2 coefficients and indicate the joint effects of lagged debt and number of bottom-up votes and the interaction of both.\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eBut are fiscal preferences time-invariant? While Dafflon and Pujol (\\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR13\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2001\\u003c/span\\u003e) argue that fiscal preferences are persistent, Funk and Gathmann (\\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR23\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2013\\u003c/span\\u003e) show that fiscal preferences may evolve over time if, e.g., the composition of a canton\\u0026rsquo;s population changes or if voters experience a shift in their individual preferences. Only accounting for time-invariant unobservables may therefore not sufficiently reflect voters\\u0026rsquo; fiscal preferences, especially if a long \\u003cem\\u003et\\u003c/em\\u003e dimension is observed. The CCEMG-estimator allows for unobserved time-variant cross-cantonal effects. Thus, using this estimator goes beyond the simple inclusion of canton-fixed effects as it allows for changes in the fiscal preferences over time for the federation as a whole and the different impact that these changes have on every canton in each year. However, the CCEMG-estimator only allows for time-variant unobservables \\u003cem\\u003ewithin\\u003c/em\\u003e each canton that are in line with the federations as a whole and, thus, not for time-variant deviations of fiscal preferences within a canton compared to the federation as a whole.\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eTo allow for time-invariant fiscal preferences of voters within the cantons that deviate from the federation, we follow Funk and Gathmann (\\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR22\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2011\\u003c/span\\u003e) and amend our model in two ways. First, we include canton-specific time trends into the model. As preferences evolve slowly, time trends should capture gradual changes in the primary surplus that can be explained by preference shifts. However, there may be other factors that influence the primary surplus over time. Therefore, we use an updated version of Funk and Gathmann\\u0026rsquo;s (\\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR22\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2011\\u003c/span\\u003e) variable of fiscal preferences as second approach to measure time-variant fiscal preferences within the cantons. Following them, we use the 613 popular votes that took place on the Swiss federal level between 1977 and 2017. From these votes, we separate those that would have increased or decreased public spending (Funk and Gathmann \\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR22\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2011\\u003c/span\\u003e). We then use the average support for increases (against decreases) of public spending within each canton in every year as our measure for the expenditure preferences of voters within a canton. We update the data of Funk and Gathmann (\\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR22\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2011\\u003c/span\\u003e, \\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR23\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2013\\u003c/span\\u003e) twofold. First, we extend the data until 2017. Second, we weight each cantonal vote share with the turnout of the vote in the respective canton to consider that a federal vote might have a varying relevance among the cantons and low turnouts that result out of this could bias approval shares and, thus, the preference indicator.\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eEstimation results that include our measures for time-variant fiscal preferences of the electorate within the cantons are reported in Table\\u0026nbsp;2. We include canton-specific linear trends in columns 1 and 5. In columns 2 and 6 we include canton-specific trends and allow for non-linearities in the development of the debt to GDP ratio. Including cantonal trends leaves our results on fiscal sustainability unchanged, while the effect of an additional population triggered vote is slightly larger than without including cantonal trends.\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eIn column 3 and 7, we include our variable for the expenditure preferences of voters within a canton into the model. If we explicitly control for the expenditure preferences of voters, the fiscal reaction coefficient slightly increases, while the inclusion of time-variant expenditure preferences leaves the effect of an additional population-triggered vote on the government\\u0026rsquo;s fiscal reaction almost unchanged. These results hold if we allow for non-linearities in the debt to GDP ratio (columns 4 and 8). The expenditure preferences variable shows the expected negative sign, indicating that higher expenditure preferences of the electorate are associated with lower primary surpluses. However, this effect is not statistically significant. We explain the statistical insignificance of the expenditure preferences variable with the characteristics of the CCEMG-estimator, that already incorporates large parts of the cross-cantonal time-variation of fiscal preferences of voters.\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/div\\u003e \\u003cdiv id=\\\"Sec14\\\" class=\\\"Section2\\\"\\u003e \\u003ch2\\u003e5.3 Disentangling Indirect and Direct Effects\\u003c/h2\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eWhy do additional population-triggered votes increase the fiscal reaction of cantonal governments to an increasing debt to GDP ratio? Both, indirect and direct effects are conceivable. According to Gerber (\\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR24\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e1996\\u003c/span\\u003e) and Matsusaka (\\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR35\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2018\\u003c/span\\u003e) the expectation of governments that voters could challenge or amend their policy induces them to change their policy preemptively. In our case, this would mean that governments act fiscally more cautiously after experiencing an alert electorate, expecting that their policy could be challenged in the current year (indirect effect).\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eIt could, however, also be the case that voters use their direct democratic rights and effectively change the fiscal policy of a canton. A higher number of votes would then be associated with a larger increase in a canton\\u0026rsquo;s debt to GDP ratio. In this case, the stronger fiscal reaction would result out of a changed fiscal need to adopt the primary surplus (direct effect).\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eTo disentangle the indirect and the direct effects, we separate the population-triggered votes into those that are approved by the electorate and those that fail at the ballots. Again, we interact the number of approved and non-approved votes in the previous year with the lagged debt to GDP ratio to analyze whether fiscal reactions to increasing debt change if the electorate uses its direct democratic rights actively. If the change of fiscal reactions comes through the approved votes or through both, the approved and the non-approved votes, we cannot clearly disentangle the indirect from the direct effects. If, however, the effect only comes via the votes that fail at the ballots, we find evidence supporting the indirect channel as these votes did not effectively change the government\\u0026rsquo;s intended policy.\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eResults for the disentangled approved and non-approved votes are reported in columns 1 and 2 of Table\\u0026nbsp;3. We only find a positive and statistically significant effect on the fiscal reaction of cantonal governments to increasing debt to GDP ratios for the number of votes that fail at the ballot. The effect size of an additional vote increases compared to the pooled number of population-triggered votes. Our estimates indicate that with every population-triggered vote that fails at the ballots, the government increases the primary surplus by additional 0.057 percentage points of imputed GDP to counteract an increase in the debt to GDP ratio, while we find no significant effect of successful population-triggered votes on the fiscal reaction of cantonal governments.\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e \\u003cdiv class=\\\"gridtable\\\"\\u003e\\u003ctable float=\\\"Yes\\\" id=\\\"Tab3\\\" border=\\\"1\\\"\\u003e \\u003ccaption language=\\\"En\\\"\\u003e \\u003cdiv class=\\\"CaptionNumber\\\"\\u003eTable 3\\u003c/div\\u003e \\u003cdiv class=\\\"CaptionContent\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eEffect of Bottom-up Votes on the Fiscal Reaction Function of Cantonal Governments with Disentangled Effects 1987\\u0026ndash;2017\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/div\\u003e \\u003c/caption\\u003e \\u003ccolgroup cols=\\\"10\\\"\\u003e \\u003cdiv align=\\\"left\\\" class=\\\"colspec\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\" colnum=\\\"1\\\"\\u003e\\u003c/div\\u003e \\u003cdiv align=\\\"left\\\" class=\\\"colspec\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\" colnum=\\\"2\\\"\\u003e\\u003c/div\\u003e \\u003cdiv align=\\\"left\\\" class=\\\"colspec\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\" colnum=\\\"3\\\"\\u003e\\u003c/div\\u003e \\u003cdiv align=\\\"left\\\" class=\\\"colspec\\\" colname=\\\"c4\\\" colnum=\\\"4\\\"\\u003e\\u003c/div\\u003e \\u003cdiv align=\\\"left\\\" class=\\\"colspec\\\" colname=\\\"c5\\\" colnum=\\\"5\\\"\\u003e\\u003c/div\\u003e \\u003cdiv align=\\\"left\\\" class=\\\"colspec\\\" colname=\\\"c6\\\" colnum=\\\"6\\\"\\u003e\\u003c/div\\u003e \\u003cdiv align=\\\"left\\\" class=\\\"colspec\\\" colname=\\\"c7\\\" colnum=\\\"7\\\"\\u003e\\u003c/div\\u003e \\u003cdiv align=\\\"left\\\" class=\\\"colspec\\\" colname=\\\"c8\\\" colnum=\\\"8\\\"\\u003e\\u003c/div\\u003e \\u003cdiv align=\\\"left\\\" class=\\\"colspec\\\" colname=\\\"c9\\\" colnum=\\\"9\\\"\\u003e\\u003c/div\\u003e \\u003cdiv align=\\\"left\\\" class=\\\"colspec\\\" colname=\\\"c10\\\" colnum=\\\"10\\\"\\u003e\\u003c/div\\u003e \\u003cthead\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003cth align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eDependent Variable:\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/th\\u003e \\u003cth align=\\\"left\\\" colspan=\\\"3\\\" nameend=\\\"c4\\\" namest=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003ePrimary\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eSurplus\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/th\\u003e \\u003cth align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c5\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/th\\u003e \\u003cth align=\\\"left\\\" colspan=\\\"2\\\" nameend=\\\"c7\\\" namest=\\\"c6\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003ePrimary\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eExpenditures\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/th\\u003e \\u003cth align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c8\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/th\\u003e \\u003cth align=\\\"left\\\" colspan=\\\"2\\\" nameend=\\\"c10\\\" namest=\\\"c9\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eRevenues\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/th\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003c/thead\\u003e \\u003ctbody\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(1)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(2)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colspan=\\\"2\\\" nameend=\\\"c5\\\" namest=\\\"c4\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c6\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(3)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c7\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(4)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c8\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c9\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(5)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c10\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(6)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eLagged Debt\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.071*\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.043)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.068*\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.041)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colspan=\\\"2\\\" nameend=\\\"c5\\\" namest=\\\"c4\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c6\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.063**\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.032)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c7\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.319\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.305)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c8\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c9\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.137***\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.028)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c10\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.111***\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.030)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eLagged Debt*No. of Bottom-up Votes\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colspan=\\\"2\\\" nameend=\\\"c5\\\" namest=\\\"c4\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c6\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-0.062\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.049)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c7\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-0.011\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.035)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c8\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c9\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.012*\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.007)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c10\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.016**\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.007)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eLagged Debt*No. of Bottom-up Votes Approved\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.019\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.051)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.005\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.056)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colspan=\\\"2\\\" nameend=\\\"c5\\\" namest=\\\"c4\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c6\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c7\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c8\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c9\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c10\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eLagged Debt*No. of Bottom-up Votes Non-Approved\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.057**\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.029)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.054*\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.031)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colspan=\\\"2\\\" nameend=\\\"c5\\\" namest=\\\"c4\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c6\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c7\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c8\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c9\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c10\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eNo. of Bottom-up Votes\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colspan=\\\"2\\\" nameend=\\\"c5\\\" namest=\\\"c4\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c6\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.005\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.004)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c7\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-0.001\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.003)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c8\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c9\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-0.001\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.001)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c10\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-0.001\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.001)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eNo. of Bottom-up Votes Approved\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-0.002\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.003)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-0.001\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.003)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colspan=\\\"2\\\" nameend=\\\"c5\\\" namest=\\\"c4\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c6\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c7\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c8\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c9\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c10\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eNo. of Bottom-up Votes Non-Approved\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-0.004*\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.002)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-0.003\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.002)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colspan=\\\"2\\\" nameend=\\\"c5\\\" namest=\\\"c4\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c6\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c7\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c8\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c9\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c10\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eYVAR\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.373\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(1.235)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colspan=\\\"2\\\" nameend=\\\"c5\\\" namest=\\\"c4\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c6\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e3.975\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(5.081)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c7\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c8\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c9\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-0.059\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.887)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c10\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eGVAR\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-1.252***\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.348)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colspan=\\\"2\\\" nameend=\\\"c5\\\" namest=\\\"c4\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c6\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e19.131***\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(4.268)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c7\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c8\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c9\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.579***\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.163)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c10\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eOutput Gap\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-0.121\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.121)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colspan=\\\"2\\\" nameend=\\\"c5\\\" namest=\\\"c4\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c6\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c7\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-1.030\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.897)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c8\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c9\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c10\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-0.118\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.097)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eExpenditure Gap\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-0.559***\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.066)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colspan=\\\"2\\\" nameend=\\\"c5\\\" namest=\\\"c4\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c6\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c7\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e10.252***\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.231)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c8\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c9\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c10\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.458***\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.069)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003ePrimary Surplus (t-1)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.072\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.061)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.138**\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.055)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colspan=\\\"2\\\" nameend=\\\"c5\\\" namest=\\\"c4\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c6\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c7\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c8\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c9\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c10\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003ePrimary Expenditures (t-1)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colspan=\\\"2\\\" nameend=\\\"c5\\\" namest=\\\"c4\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c6\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.155***\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.034)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c7\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.171***\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.031)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c8\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c9\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c10\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eRevenues (t-1)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colspan=\\\"2\\\" nameend=\\\"c5\\\" namest=\\\"c4\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c6\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c7\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c8\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c9\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.141**\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.067)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c10\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.138**\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.067)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eFiscal Rule Index\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.003**\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.001)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.003*\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.002)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colspan=\\\"2\\\" nameend=\\\"c5\\\" namest=\\\"c4\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c6\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-0.007\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.010)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c7\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-0.008\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.008)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c8\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c9\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.001\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.002)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c10\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.001\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.002)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eExpenditure Pref. of Voters\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-0.013\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.026)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-0.011\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.026)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colspan=\\\"2\\\" nameend=\\\"c5\\\" namest=\\\"c4\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c6\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.014\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.105)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c7\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-0.060\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.088)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c8\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c9\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-0.020\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.022)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c10\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-0.014\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.019)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eCantonal Time Trend\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eYes\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eYes\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colspan=\\\"2\\\" nameend=\\\"c5\\\" namest=\\\"c4\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c6\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eYes\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c7\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eYes\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c8\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c9\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eYes\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c10\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eYes\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eCSA Controls\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eYes\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eYes\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colspan=\\\"2\\\" nameend=\\\"c5\\\" namest=\\\"c4\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c6\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eYes\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c7\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eYes\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c8\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c9\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eYes\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c10\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eYes\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eF-Test: Joint Sign. of Bottom-up Votes\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e11.26***\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e11.74***\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colspan=\\\"2\\\" nameend=\\\"c5\\\" namest=\\\"c4\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c6\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e4.23**\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c7\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.61\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c8\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c9\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e25.52***\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c10\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e16.24***\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eCantons\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e25\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e25\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colspan=\\\"2\\\" nameend=\\\"c5\\\" namest=\\\"c4\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c6\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e25\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c7\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e25\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c8\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c9\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e25\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c10\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e25\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eYears\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e31\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e31\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colspan=\\\"2\\\" nameend=\\\"c5\\\" namest=\\\"c4\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c6\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e31\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c7\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e31\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c8\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c9\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e31\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c10\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e31\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eN\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e775\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e775\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colspan=\\\"2\\\" nameend=\\\"c5\\\" namest=\\\"c4\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c6\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e775\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c7\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e775\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c8\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c9\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e775\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c10\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e775\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003c/tbody\\u003e \\u003c/colgroup\\u003e \\u003c/table\\u003e\\u003c/div\\u003e \\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eEffects are estimated with Pesaran\\u0026rsquo;s (\\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR42\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2006\\u003c/span\\u003e) CCEMG estimator that controls for cross-sectional-dependence and time variant unobservables with heterogenous impact across panels. We use the Stata routine xtmg. F-Test of joint significance show Chi2 coefficients and indicate the joint effects of lagged debt and number of bottom-up votes and the interaction of both.\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eThere could still be a direct effect at work if the failure of a vote induces an increase in a canton\\u0026rsquo;s debt to GDP ratio. This would be the case if the government favored an increase in the debt to GDP ratio in \\u003cem\\u003et-1\\u003c/em\\u003e. To check for this possibility, we estimate an auxiliary regression with the cantonal debt to GDP ratio as dependent variable and the number of population-triggered votes that fail as explanatory variable. Moreover, we control for extraordinary fluctuations in output and expenditures as well as fiscal preferences of the electorate. Results are shown in Table A1. We find no effect of failing votes on cantonal debt to GDP ratios. Therefore, our results support the theoretical reasoning of Gerber (\\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR24\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e1996\\u003c/span\\u003e) and Matsusaka (\\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR35\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2018\\u003c/span\\u003e) on the indirect effects of direct democracy on fiscal policy outcomes.\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/div\\u003e \\u003cdiv id=\\\"Sec15\\\" class=\\\"Section2\\\"\\u003e \\u003ch2\\u003e5.4 Does Adaption Come through Cutting Expenditures or Raising Revenues?\\u003c/h2\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eIf cantonal governments act fiscally cautiously because they expect voters to challenge or to amend their policies, they can either reduce primary expenditures, increase revenues or combine the two policies. In columns 3 to 6 of Table\\u0026nbsp;3, we estimate which of those three policies cantonal governments choose to counteract an increase in their debt to GDP ratio.\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e \\u003cdiv class=\\\"gridtable\\\"\\u003e\\u003ctable float=\\\"Yes\\\" id=\\\"Tab4\\\" border=\\\"1\\\"\\u003e \\u003ccaption language=\\\"En\\\"\\u003e \\u003cdiv class=\\\"CaptionNumber\\\"\\u003eTable 4\\u003c/div\\u003e \\u003cdiv class=\\\"CaptionContent\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eIsolated Effects of Initiatives on the Fiscal Reaction Function of Cantonal Governments 1987\\u0026ndash;2017\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/div\\u003e \\u003c/caption\\u003e \\u003ccolgroup cols=\\\"7\\\"\\u003e \\u003cdiv align=\\\"left\\\" class=\\\"colspec\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\" colnum=\\\"1\\\"\\u003e\\u003c/div\\u003e \\u003cdiv align=\\\"left\\\" class=\\\"colspec\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\" colnum=\\\"2\\\"\\u003e\\u003c/div\\u003e \\u003cdiv align=\\\"left\\\" class=\\\"colspec\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\" colnum=\\\"3\\\"\\u003e\\u003c/div\\u003e \\u003cdiv align=\\\"left\\\" class=\\\"colspec\\\" colname=\\\"c4\\\" colnum=\\\"4\\\"\\u003e\\u003c/div\\u003e \\u003cdiv align=\\\"left\\\" class=\\\"colspec\\\" colname=\\\"c5\\\" colnum=\\\"5\\\"\\u003e\\u003c/div\\u003e \\u003cdiv align=\\\"left\\\" class=\\\"colspec\\\" colname=\\\"c6\\\" colnum=\\\"6\\\"\\u003e\\u003c/div\\u003e \\u003cdiv align=\\\"left\\\" class=\\\"colspec\\\" colname=\\\"c7\\\" colnum=\\\"7\\\"\\u003e\\u003c/div\\u003e \\u003cthead\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003cth align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/th\\u003e \\u003cth align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(1)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/th\\u003e \\u003cth align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(2)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/th\\u003e \\u003cth align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c4\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(3)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/th\\u003e \\u003cth align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c5\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(4)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/th\\u003e \\u003cth align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c6\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(5)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/th\\u003e \\u003cth align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c7\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(6)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/th\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003c/thead\\u003e \\u003ctbody\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eLagged Debt\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.106***\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.036)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.139***\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.038)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c4\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.136***\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.043)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c5\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.135***\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.046)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c6\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.162***\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.034)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c7\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.160***\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.054)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eLagged Debt*No. Initiatives\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.021*\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.012)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.025**\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.010)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c4\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.033***\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.012)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c5\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.034***\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.013)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c6\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c7\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eNumber of Initiatives\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-0.001\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.001)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-0.002**\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.001)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c4\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-0.002**\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.001)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c5\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-0.002*\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.001)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c6\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c7\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eLagged Debt*No. Initiatives \\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eApproved\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c4\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c5\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c6\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-0.151\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.173)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c7\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eNumber of Initiatives \\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eApproved\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c4\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c5\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c6\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.007\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.010)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c7\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eLagged Debt*No. Initiatives \\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eNon-Approved\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c4\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c5\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c6\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c7\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.037**\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.018)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eNumber of Initiatives \\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eNon-Approved\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c4\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c5\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c6\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c7\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-0.002\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.001)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eYVAR\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.776\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.907)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e1.063*\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.566)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c4\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.677\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.794)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c5\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.951\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.727)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c6\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.810\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(1.160)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c7\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.873\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.676)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eGVAR\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-1.171***\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.312)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-1.216***\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.347)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c4\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-1.194***\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.320)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c5\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-1.139***\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.322)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c6\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-1.117***\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.287)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c7\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-1.141***\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.314)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003ePrimary Surplus (t-1)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.133***\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.048)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.072*\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.043)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c4\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-0.005\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.051)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c5\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.020\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.060)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c6\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.001\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.063)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c7\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.010\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.059)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eFiscal Rule Index\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.002*\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.001)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.002\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.002)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c4\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.000\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.003)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c5\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.001\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.003)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c6\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.001\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.003)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c7\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.001\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.003)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eSquared change of debt\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e1.800**\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.800)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c4\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e1.325**\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.585)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c5\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e1.313*\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.694)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c6\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e1.221\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.767)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c7\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e1.338*\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.763)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eExpenditure Preferences of Voters\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c4\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c5\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-0.010\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.022)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c6\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-0.006\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.026)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c7\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-0.005\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.021\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eCantonal Time Trend\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c4\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eYes\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c5\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eYes\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c6\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eYes\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c7\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eYes\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eCSA Controls\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eYes\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eYes\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c4\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eYes\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c5\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eYes\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c6\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eYes\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c7\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eYes\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eF-Test: Joint Sign. of Bottom-up Votes\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e12.95***\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e17.83***\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c4\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e15.71***\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c5\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e13.03***\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c6\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.01\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c7\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e16.90***\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eCantons\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e25\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e25\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c4\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e25\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c5\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e25\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c6\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e25\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c7\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e25\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eYears\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e31\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e31\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c4\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e31\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c5\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e31\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c6\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e31\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c7\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e31\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eN\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e775\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e775\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c4\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e775\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c5\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e775\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c6\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e775\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c7\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e775\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003c/tbody\\u003e \\u003c/colgroup\\u003e \\u003c/table\\u003e\\u003c/div\\u003e \\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eDependent variable: Primary Surplus relative to imputed cantonal GDP. Effects are estimated with Pesaran\\u0026rsquo;s (\\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR42\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2006\\u003c/span\\u003e) CCEMG estimator that controls for cross-sectional-dependence and time variant unobservables with heterogenous impact across panels. We use the Stata routine xtmg. F-Test of joint significance show Chi2 coefficients and indicate the joint effects of lagged debt and number of bottom-up votes and the interaction of both.\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eOur results show that cantonal governments increase their revenues after their debt to GDP ratio increased, while we find no robust effects for expenditure cuts. In line with this general fiscal reaction, our results indicate that the effect of an alert electorate on the fiscal reaction of the government also evolves on the revenue side of the public budget. Our estimates indicate that, with every additional population-triggered vote, cantonal revenue increases by 0.012 to 0.016 percentage points of imputed cantonal GDP in the following year. On the contrary, we find no significant effect of additional population-triggered votes on primary spending. According to these results, an increased expectation of governments that voters intervene into their policy incentivizes cantonal governments to increase revenues and not to cut expenditures.\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/div\\u003e \\u003cdiv id=\\\"Sec16\\\" class=\\\"Section2\\\"\\u003e \\u003ch2\\u003e5.5 Effects of Initiatives\\u003c/h2\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eAccording to theory (Matsusaka \\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR35\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2018\\u003c/span\\u003e), initiatives and referendums have different effects on the relative correction of governmental policy towards the preferences of the electorate. Not controlling for the exclusive effect of initiatives would be problematic if fiscal preferences of voters and governments differed one-dimensionally over all cantons and years. Although this is unlikely in our case, we cannot rule out this scenario. Thus, we run separate estimations and investigate whether our results on fiscal reactions hold if we only use the number of initiatives that appeared at the ballot in the previous year.\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eSeparate results for initiatives are reported in Table\\u0026nbsp;4. Our results on fiscal reactions hold, if we only use the number of initiatives that appeared at the ballot as our measure for the alertness of the electorate. The effect of an additional initiative that appears at the ballots on the fiscal reaction to an increase in the debt to GDP ratio is larger than the effect of population-triggered votes in general. This is in line with theory indicating that the initiative is binding governments more strictly than the petition-referendum. Our separate estimates for the initiative support the evidence on the indirect effects of population-triggered votes. Again, we only find a significant effect on fiscal reactions for those initiatives that fail at the ballot.\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/div\\u003e\"},{\"header\":\"6. Robustness\",\"content\":\"\\u003cp\\u003eWe run a series of robustness checks to ensure that our empirical results on the effects of additional votes on the fiscal reaction of cantonal governments are not spurious. First, we use the control variables that are proposed by Bohn (\\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR10\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2008\\u003c/span\\u003e) and applied by Potrafke and Reischmann (\\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR43\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2015\\u003c/span\\u003e) and Feld et al. (\\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR20\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2020\\u003c/span\\u003e) to consider fluctuations in output and cantonal expenditures instead of using the GVAR and YVAR controls that Barro\\u0026rsquo;s (\\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR2\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e1981\\u003c/span\\u003e, \\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR3\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e1986\\u003c/span\\u003e) model yields. Bohn (\\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR10\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2008\\u003c/span\\u003e) uses the deviation of the actual value of output and expenditures from their trend. Again, we calculate trend values using the Hodrick-Prescott (1997) filter with a smoothing parameter of 100. In line with theory, we expect a negative correlation of Bohn\\u0026rsquo;s expenditure- and output-gap with the primary surplus. Results with Bohn controls are reported in Table A2 in the \\u003cspan refid=\\\"Sec19\\\" class=\\\"InternalRef\\\"\\u003eappendix\\u003c/span\\u003e. For the analysis of disentangled effects, results with the control variables of Bohn are shown in Table\\u0026nbsp;5. Our results hold if we use the alternative specification to control for fluctuations in output and expenditures.\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eSecond, we include dummy variables that indicate whether a cantonal election took place in the previous year. Burret and Feld (\\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR11\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2018\\u003c/span\\u003e) find that political budget cycles influence cantonal fiscal policy and show that governments increase expenditures in election years. If voters triggered more popular votes in election years, the increased need to restore the additional expenditures in the year following the election could bias our results. Our measure would then act as a proxy for a political budget cycle. Column 1 and 5 of Table\\u0026nbsp;5 show our model with election dummies included. In column 2 and 6 we include an interaction term between election dummies and the lagged debt to GDP ratio to estimate whether fiscal reactions are stronger after election years. In both specifications, we continue to find a positive and significant effect of the number of population-triggered votes on the fiscal reaction to increased debt. On the contrary, we find no effect of an increased fiscal reaction in a year following an election.\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eThird, in addition to control for the influence of fiscal rules on the primary surplus, we include an interaction between the fiscal rule index and the lagged debt to GDP ratio to control for effects of fiscal rules on fiscal reactions. If changes in a canton\\u0026rsquo;s fiscal rule coincided with popular votes, this could influence our results. Our results in columns 3 and 7 of Table\\u0026nbsp;6 show however that fiscal rules, although having an effect on the level of the primary surplus, do not impair our estimates on the effects of popular votes on fiscal reactions.\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eFourth, we use the average turnout of population-triggered votes in the previous year instead of the number of votes as alternative measure for the alertness of cantonal electorates. Results are reported in columns 4 and 8 of Table\\u0026nbsp;5. We find no effects of an increased participation of electorates in popular votes on the fiscal reaction of a canton\\u0026rsquo;s government to increased debt. This result supports that it is the sheer possibility of a vote that induces governments to become fiscally cautious, expecting that voters could challenge their policies.\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eTo check our results on direct and indirect effects of population-triggered votes further, we include the number of population-triggered votes in the current year as additional control variable into our model. It is likely that the number of population-triggered votes in the current year are correlated with the number of population-triggered votes in the past year. Then, our measure for the alertness of voters would act as a proxy for the number of votes in the current year. In this case, our results which support the indirect effects of an alert electorate would not hold. We include the number of population-triggered votes in the current year as additional control variable into our model. Moreover, we include an interaction between the lagged debt to GDP ratio and the number of votes in the current year. Estimations are reported in Table A3. We find no effects of the number of population-triggered votes in the current year on the primary surplus or on fiscal reactions. With both changes in the model, our results on the effects of the number of votes in the previous year on fiscal reactions hold.\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e \\u003cdiv class=\\\"gridtable\\\"\\u003e\\u003ctable float=\\\"Yes\\\" id=\\\"Tab5\\\" border=\\\"1\\\"\\u003e \\u003ccaption language=\\\"En\\\"\\u003e \\u003cdiv class=\\\"CaptionNumber\\\"\\u003eTable 5\\u003c/div\\u003e \\u003cdiv class=\\\"CaptionContent\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eRobustness\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/div\\u003e \\u003c/caption\\u003e \\u003ccolgroup cols=\\\"10\\\"\\u003e \\u003cdiv align=\\\"left\\\" class=\\\"colspec\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\" colnum=\\\"1\\\"\\u003e\\u003c/div\\u003e \\u003cdiv align=\\\"left\\\" class=\\\"colspec\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\" colnum=\\\"2\\\"\\u003e\\u003c/div\\u003e \\u003cdiv align=\\\"left\\\" class=\\\"colspec\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\" colnum=\\\"3\\\"\\u003e\\u003c/div\\u003e \\u003cdiv align=\\\"left\\\" class=\\\"colspec\\\" colname=\\\"c4\\\" colnum=\\\"4\\\"\\u003e\\u003c/div\\u003e \\u003cdiv align=\\\"left\\\" class=\\\"colspec\\\" colname=\\\"c5\\\" colnum=\\\"5\\\"\\u003e\\u003c/div\\u003e \\u003cdiv align=\\\"left\\\" class=\\\"colspec\\\" colname=\\\"c6\\\" colnum=\\\"6\\\"\\u003e\\u003c/div\\u003e \\u003cdiv align=\\\"left\\\" class=\\\"colspec\\\" colname=\\\"c7\\\" colnum=\\\"7\\\"\\u003e\\u003c/div\\u003e \\u003cdiv align=\\\"left\\\" class=\\\"colspec\\\" colname=\\\"c8\\\" colnum=\\\"8\\\"\\u003e\\u003c/div\\u003e \\u003cdiv align=\\\"left\\\" class=\\\"colspec\\\" colname=\\\"c9\\\" colnum=\\\"9\\\"\\u003e\\u003c/div\\u003e \\u003cdiv align=\\\"left\\\" class=\\\"colspec\\\" colname=\\\"c10\\\" colnum=\\\"10\\\"\\u003e\\u003c/div\\u003e \\u003cthead\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003cth align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/th\\u003e \\u003cth align=\\\"left\\\" colspan=\\\"4\\\" nameend=\\\"c5\\\" namest=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e1977\\u0026ndash;2017\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/th\\u003e \\u003cth align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c6\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/th\\u003e \\u003cth align=\\\"left\\\" colspan=\\\"4\\\" nameend=\\\"c10\\\" namest=\\\"c7\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e1987\\u0026ndash;2017\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/th\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003c/thead\\u003e \\u003ctbody\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colspan=\\\"2\\\" nameend=\\\"c3\\\" namest=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003ePolitical Budget Cycles\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c4\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eFiscal Rules\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c5\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eTurnout\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c6\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colspan=\\\"2\\\" nameend=\\\"c8\\\" namest=\\\"c7\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003ePolitical Budget Cycles\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c9\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eFiscal Rules\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c10\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eTurnout\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(1)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(2)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c4\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(3)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c5\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(4)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c6\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c7\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(5)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c8\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(6)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c9\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(7)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c10\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(8)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eLagged Debt\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.048*\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.026)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.054**\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.023)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c4\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.036\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.023)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c5\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.088**\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.042)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c6\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c7\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.094***\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.034)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c8\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.109***\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.037)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c9\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.052\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.045)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c10\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.128***\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.044)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eLagged Debt*No. of Bottom-up Votes\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.009*\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.005)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.008*\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.005)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c4\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.009*\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.005)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c5\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c6\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c7\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.017**\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.008)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c8\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.021**\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.012)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c9\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.018**\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.007)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c10\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eLagged Debt*Election\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.003\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.016)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c4\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c5\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c6\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c7\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c8\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.024\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.052)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c9\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c10\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eLagged Debt*Fiscal Rule Index\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c4\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-0.067\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.082)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c5\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c6\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c7\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c8\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c9\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-0.013\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.067)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c10\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eLagged Debt*Turnout\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c4\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c5\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.017\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.020)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c6\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c7\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c8\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c9\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c10\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-0.011\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.053)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eElection Dummy\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.001\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.000)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-0.001\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.002)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c4\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c5\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c6\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c7\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.001\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.001)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c8\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-0.002\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.004)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c9\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c10\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eNumber of Bottom-up Votes\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-0.001*\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.000)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-0.001\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.000)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c4\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-0.001**\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.000)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c5\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.000\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.000)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c6\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c7\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-0.001*\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.001)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c8\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-0.001\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.001)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c9\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-0.002**\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.001)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c10\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-0.001*\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.000)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eFiscal Rule Index\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.003**\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.001)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.002*\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.001)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c4\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.001\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.004)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c5\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.002*\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.001)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c6\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c7\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.003**\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.001)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c8\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.002\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.001)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c9\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-0.001\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.006)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c10\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.002\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.001)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eYVAR\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e1.071\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.886)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e1.106\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.838)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c4\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.703\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.674)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c5\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e1.549**\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.777)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c6\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c7\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.085\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.886)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c8\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.049\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(1.007)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c9\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-0.737\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.922)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c10\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e1.374\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.896)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eGVAR\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-0.794***\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.227)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-0.802***\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.216)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c4\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-0.803***\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.221)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c5\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-0.883***\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.257)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c6\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c7\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-1.126***\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.296)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c8\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-1.191***\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.299)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c9\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-1.126***\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.309)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c10\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-1.327***\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.360)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003ePrimary Surplus (t-1)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.142***\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.043)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.150***\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.046)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c4\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.043\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.052)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c5\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.141***\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.048)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c6\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c7\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.050\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.045)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c8\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.071\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.056)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c9\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-0.017\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.047)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c10\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.067\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.055)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eExpenditure Preferences of Voters\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-0.007\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.014)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-0.002\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.015)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c4\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-0.019\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.018)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c5\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-0.007\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.014)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c6\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c7\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e.0,022\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.024\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c8\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-0.040*\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.024)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c9\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-0.035**\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.015)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c10\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-0.012\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.022)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eAverage Turnout of Votes\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c4\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c5\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-0.008\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.007)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c6\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c7\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c8\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c9\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c10\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.002\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.004)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eCSA Controls\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eYes\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eYes\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c4\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eYes\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c5\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eYes\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c6\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c7\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eYes\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c8\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eYes\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c9\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eYes\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c10\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eYes\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eF-Test: Joint Sign. of Bottom-up Votes\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e5.59**\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e7.75***\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c4\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e5.50**\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c5\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e7.33**\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c6\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c7\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e12.63***\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c8\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e12.35***\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c9\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e13.70***\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c10\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e4.95**\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eCantons\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e25\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e25\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c4\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e25\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c5\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e25\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c6\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c7\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e25\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c8\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e25\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c9\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e25\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c10\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e25\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eYears\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e41\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e41\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c4\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e41\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c5\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e41\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c6\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c7\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e31\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c8\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e31\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c9\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e31\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c10\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e31\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eN\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e1,025\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e1,025\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c4\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e1,025\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c5\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e1,025\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c6\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c7\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e775\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c8\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e775\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c9\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e775\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c10\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e775\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003c/tbody\\u003e \\u003c/colgroup\\u003e \\u003c/table\\u003e\\u003c/div\\u003e \\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eDependent variable: Primary Surplus relative to imputed cantonal GDP. Effects are estimated with Pesaran\\u0026rsquo;s (\\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR42\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2006\\u003c/span\\u003e) CCEMG estimator that controls for cross-sectional-dependence and time variant unobservables with heterogenous impact across panels. We use the Stata routine xtmg. F-Test of joint significance show Chi2 coefficients and indicate the joint effects of lagged debt and number of bottom-up votes and the interaction of both.\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eFinally, we want to ensure that our estimations are not biased due to single observations. We exclude single cantons from the panel to check whether the non-stationarity of the debt series of single cantons disturbs our empirical results. We can trace back the result of panel-non-stationarity in the debt to GDP ratio to the four cantons Obwalden, Basel-County, St. Gallen and Ticino. Table A4 shows estimation results excluding these four cantons and estimate the effects for cantons with stationary debt series. The empirical results remain robust. Thus, non-stationarity in the debt series of single cantons does not change our results.\\u003c/p\\u003e\"},{\"header\":\"7. Conclusion\",\"content\":\"\\u003cp\\u003eBy estimating fiscal reaction functions, we show that the Swiss cantons run sustainable fiscal policies. The cantons react to a rise in their debt to GDP ratio by increasing their primary surplus to counteract this increase. According to our estimates, the extent to which citizens use their direct democratic rights explains parts of a canton\\u0026rsquo;s fiscal reactions. Our results indicate that the fiscal reaction to increased debt is stronger, the more proactive cantonal voters use their direct democratic rights. Moreover, we find that those votes that fail at the ballot induce stronger fiscal reactions of cantonal governments. In line with the existing theory on the effects of direct democracy on fiscal outcomes, we explain these findings with the \\u0026ldquo;threat\\u0026rdquo;-effect of direct democracy: Representatives act fiscally more cautiously if they expect that voters will change or amend their policy. These expectations rise, the more voters actively use direct democratic provisions.\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eDoes this support the claim that voters who use their direct democratic rights proactively enhance fiscal sustainability, instead of harming it? Based on the empirical evidence in this paper, for the case of the Swiss cantons the ultimate answer to this question is yes. However, neither enhancing fiscal sustainability nor inducing more conservative fiscal policies needs to be the intention of voters. Moreover, spending preferences of voters do not need to be more conservative than those of governments to attain a sustainability-enhancing effect. Instead, and with reference to the theory on the indirect effects of direct democracy, the evidence of this paper suggests that the eminence of the fiscal commons problem increases for governments if they expect that their intended policies will be changed by a proactive electorate in a way they cannot foresee. As a consequence, our results suggest that cantonal governments adapt their policies preemptively and counteract increases in their debt to GDP ratio precautionarily stronger to retain fiscal space for the case that voters thwart their fiscal plans. Thus, involvement of the electorate through direct democracy helps to explain why the Swiss cantonal level runs sustainable fiscal policies.\\u003c/p\\u003e\"},{\"header\":\"Appendix\",\"content\":\"\\u003cp\\u003e \\u003cdiv class=\\\"gridtable\\\"\\u003e\\u003ctable float=\\\"Yes\\\" id=\\\"Tab6\\\" border=\\\"1\\\"\\u003e \\u003ccaption language=\\\"En\\\"\\u003e \\u003cdiv class=\\\"CaptionNumber\\\"\\u003eTable A1\\u003c/div\\u003e \\u003cdiv class=\\\"CaptionContent\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eAuxiliary Regression of the Influence of Failed Votes on Debt 1987\\u0026ndash;2017\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/div\\u003e \\u003c/caption\\u003e \\u003ccolgroup cols=\\\"4\\\"\\u003e \\u003cdiv align=\\\"left\\\" class=\\\"colspec\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\" colnum=\\\"1\\\"\\u003e\\u003c/div\\u003e \\u003cdiv align=\\\"left\\\" class=\\\"colspec\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\" colnum=\\\"2\\\"\\u003e\\u003c/div\\u003e \\u003cdiv align=\\\"left\\\" class=\\\"colspec\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\" colnum=\\\"3\\\"\\u003e\\u003c/div\\u003e \\u003cdiv align=\\\"left\\\" class=\\\"colspec\\\" colname=\\\"c4\\\" colnum=\\\"4\\\"\\u003e\\u003c/div\\u003e \\u003cthead\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003cth align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/th\\u003e \\u003cth align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/th\\u003e \\u003cth align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(1)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/th\\u003e \\u003cth align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c4\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(2)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/th\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003c/thead\\u003e \\u003ctbody\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eNo. of failed \\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eBottom-up Votes\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.000\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.001)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c4\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.001\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.001)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eLagged Debt\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.600***\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.065)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c4\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.341***\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.058)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eYVAR\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-0.264\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(1.892)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c4\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-0.207\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(2.469)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eGVAR\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.249\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.168)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c4\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.288\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.238)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eFiscal Rule Index\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-0.005**\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.002)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c4\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-0.001\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.005)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eSquared change of debt\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c4\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-2.551\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(2.307)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eExpenditure Preferences of Voters\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.013\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.035)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c4\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.003\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.031)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eCantonal Time Trend\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eYes\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c4\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eYes\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eCSA Controls\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eYes\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c4\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eYes\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eCantons\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e25\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c4\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e25\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eYears\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e31\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c4\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e31\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eN\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e775\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c4\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e775\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colspan=\\\"4\\\" nameend=\\\"c4\\\" namest=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eDependent variable: Debt to GDP ratio. Effects are estimated with Pesaran\\u0026rsquo;s (\\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR42\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2006\\u003c/span\\u003e) CCEMG estimator that controls for cross-sectional-dependence and time variant unobservables with heterogenous impact across panels. We use the Stata routine xtmg.\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003c/tbody\\u003e \\u003c/colgroup\\u003e \\u003c/table\\u003e\\u003c/div\\u003e \\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e \\u003cdiv class=\\\"gridtable\\\"\\u003e\\u003ctable float=\\\"Yes\\\" id=\\\"Tab7\\\" border=\\\"1\\\"\\u003e \\u003ccaption language=\\\"En\\\"\\u003e \\u003cdiv class=\\\"CaptionNumber\\\"\\u003eTable A2\\u003c/div\\u003e \\u003cdiv class=\\\"CaptionContent\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eFRF Estimations with Bohn Controls\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/div\\u003e \\u003c/caption\\u003e \\u003ccolgroup cols=\\\"10\\\"\\u003e \\u003cdiv align=\\\"left\\\" class=\\\"colspec\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\" colnum=\\\"1\\\"\\u003e\\u003c/div\\u003e \\u003cdiv align=\\\"left\\\" class=\\\"colspec\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\" colnum=\\\"2\\\"\\u003e\\u003c/div\\u003e \\u003cdiv align=\\\"left\\\" class=\\\"colspec\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\" colnum=\\\"3\\\"\\u003e\\u003c/div\\u003e \\u003cdiv align=\\\"left\\\" class=\\\"colspec\\\" colname=\\\"c4\\\" colnum=\\\"4\\\"\\u003e\\u003c/div\\u003e \\u003cdiv align=\\\"left\\\" class=\\\"colspec\\\" colname=\\\"c5\\\" colnum=\\\"5\\\"\\u003e\\u003c/div\\u003e \\u003cdiv align=\\\"left\\\" class=\\\"colspec\\\" colname=\\\"c6\\\" colnum=\\\"6\\\"\\u003e\\u003c/div\\u003e \\u003cdiv align=\\\"left\\\" class=\\\"colspec\\\" colname=\\\"c7\\\" colnum=\\\"7\\\"\\u003e\\u003c/div\\u003e \\u003cdiv align=\\\"left\\\" class=\\\"colspec\\\" colname=\\\"c8\\\" colnum=\\\"8\\\"\\u003e\\u003c/div\\u003e \\u003cdiv align=\\\"left\\\" class=\\\"colspec\\\" colname=\\\"c9\\\" colnum=\\\"9\\\"\\u003e\\u003c/div\\u003e \\u003cdiv align=\\\"left\\\" class=\\\"colspec\\\" colname=\\\"c10\\\" colnum=\\\"10\\\"\\u003e\\u003c/div\\u003e \\u003cthead\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003cth align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/th\\u003e \\u003cth align=\\\"left\\\" colspan=\\\"4\\\" nameend=\\\"c5\\\" namest=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e1977\\u0026ndash;2017\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/th\\u003e \\u003cth align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c6\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/th\\u003e \\u003cth align=\\\"left\\\" colspan=\\\"4\\\" nameend=\\\"c10\\\" namest=\\\"c7\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e1987\\u0026ndash;2017\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/th\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003c/thead\\u003e \\u003ctbody\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(1)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(2)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c4\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(3)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c5\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(4)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c6\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c7\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(5)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c8\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(6)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c9\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(7)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c10\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(8)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eLagged Debt\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.038*\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.023)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.060**\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.026)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c4\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.058*\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.031)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c5\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.055*\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.031)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c6\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c7\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.093***\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.028)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c8\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.140***\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.042)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c9\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.072**\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.030)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c10\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.076**\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.032)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eLagged Debt*No. of Bottom-up Votes\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.009*\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.005)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.010*\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.006)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c4\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.012*\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.007)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c5\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.014**\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.007)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c6\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c7\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.013*\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.007)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c8\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.013\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.009)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c9\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.018*\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.010)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c10\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.016**\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.008)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eNumber of Bottom-up Votes\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-0.001\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.000)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-0.001*\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.001)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c4\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-0.001*\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.001)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c5\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-0.001**\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.001)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c6\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c7\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-0.001\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.001)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c8\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-0.001\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.001)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c9\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-0.001\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.001)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c10\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-0.001\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.001)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eOutput Gap (Bohn)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-0.123**\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.056)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-0.064\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.073)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c4\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-0.058\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.064)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c5\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-0.067\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.066)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c6\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c7\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-0.181**\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.082)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c8\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-0.143\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.100)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c9\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-0.243***\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.074)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c10\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-0.228***\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.087)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eExpenditure Gap (Bohn)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-0.527***\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.053)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-0.526***\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.051)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c4\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-0.511***\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.044)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c5\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-0.508***\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.049)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c6\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c7\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-0.535***\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.059)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c8\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-0.529***\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.047)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c9\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-0.525***\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.063)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c10\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-0.515***\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.067)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003ePrimary Surplus (t-1)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.180***\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.042)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.121***\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.040)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c4\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.038\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.033)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c5\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.035\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.036)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c6\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c7\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.128***\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.045)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c8\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.042\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.043)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c9\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.042\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.038)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c10\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.058\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.040)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eFiscal Rule Index\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.001\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.001)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.001\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.001)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c4\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.001\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.002)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c5\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.002\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.002)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c6\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c7\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.002\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.002)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c8\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.002\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.003)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c9\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.002\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.002)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c10\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.002\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.002)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eSquared change of debt\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.142\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.317)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c4\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c5\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c6\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c7\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c8\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e1,810*\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.926)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c9\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c10\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eExpenditure Preferences of Voters\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c4\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c5\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-0.008\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.011)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c6\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c7\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c8\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c9\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c10\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-0.026\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.016)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eCantonal Time Trend\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c4\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eYes\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c5\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eYes\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c6\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c7\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c8\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c9\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eYes\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c10\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eYes\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eCSA Controls\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eYes\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eYes\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c4\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eYes\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c5\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eYes\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c6\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c7\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eYes\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c8\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eYes\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c9\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eYes\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c10\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eYes\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eCantons\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e25\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e25\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c4\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e25\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c5\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e25\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c6\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c7\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e25\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c8\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e25\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c9\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e25\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c10\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e25\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eYears\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e41\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e41\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c4\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e41\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c5\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e41\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c6\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c7\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e31\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c8\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e31\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c9\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e31\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c10\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e31\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eN\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e1,025\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e1,025\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c4\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e1,025\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c5\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e1,025\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c6\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c7\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e775\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c8\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e775\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c9\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e775\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c10\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e775\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003c/tbody\\u003e \\u003c/colgroup\\u003e \\u003c/table\\u003e\\u003c/div\\u003e \\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eDependent variable: Primary Surplus relative to imputed cantonal GDP. Effects are estimated with Pesaran\\u0026rsquo;s (\\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR42\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2006\\u003c/span\\u003e) CCEMG estimator that controls for cross-sectional-dependence and time variant unobservables with heterogenous impact across panels. We use the Stata routine xtmg.\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e \\u003cdiv class=\\\"gridtable\\\"\\u003e\\u003ctable float=\\\"Yes\\\" id=\\\"Tab8\\\" border=\\\"1\\\"\\u003e \\u003ccaption language=\\\"En\\\"\\u003e \\u003cdiv class=\\\"CaptionNumber\\\"\\u003eTable A3\\u003c/div\\u003e \\u003cdiv class=\\\"CaptionContent\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eEffects of Population-Triggered Votes in the Current Year\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/div\\u003e \\u003c/caption\\u003e \\u003ccolgroup cols=\\\"6\\\"\\u003e \\u003cdiv align=\\\"left\\\" class=\\\"colspec\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\" colnum=\\\"1\\\"\\u003e\\u003c/div\\u003e \\u003cdiv align=\\\"left\\\" class=\\\"colspec\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\" colnum=\\\"2\\\"\\u003e\\u003c/div\\u003e \\u003cdiv align=\\\"left\\\" class=\\\"colspec\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\" colnum=\\\"3\\\"\\u003e\\u003c/div\\u003e \\u003cdiv align=\\\"left\\\" class=\\\"colspec\\\" colname=\\\"c4\\\" colnum=\\\"4\\\"\\u003e\\u003c/div\\u003e \\u003cdiv align=\\\"left\\\" class=\\\"colspec\\\" colname=\\\"c5\\\" colnum=\\\"5\\\"\\u003e\\u003c/div\\u003e \\u003cdiv align=\\\"left\\\" class=\\\"colspec\\\" colname=\\\"c6\\\" colnum=\\\"6\\\"\\u003e\\u003c/div\\u003e \\u003cthead\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003cth align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/th\\u003e \\u003cth align=\\\"left\\\" colspan=\\\"2\\\" nameend=\\\"c3\\\" namest=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e1977\\u0026ndash;2017\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/th\\u003e \\u003cth align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c4\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/th\\u003e \\u003cth align=\\\"left\\\" colspan=\\\"2\\\" nameend=\\\"c6\\\" namest=\\\"c5\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e1987\\u0026ndash;2017\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/th\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003c/thead\\u003e \\u003ctbody\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(1)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(2)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c4\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c5\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(3)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c6\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(4)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eLagged Debt\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.096***\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.035)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.090**\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.045)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c4\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c5\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.188***\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.060)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c6\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.132*\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.073)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eLagged Debt*No. of Bottom-up Votes\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.016**\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.008)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c4\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c5\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c6\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.021*\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.012)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eNumber of Bottom-up Votes\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-0.002**\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.001)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c4\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c5\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c6\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-0.002*\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.001)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eLagged Debt*No. Bottom-up Votes in t\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-0.003\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.006)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.000\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.009)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c4\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c5\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-0.012\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.012)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c6\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-0.006\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.016)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eNumber of Bottom-up Votes in t\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.000\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.001)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.000\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.001)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c4\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c5\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.001\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.001)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c6\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.000\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.001)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eYVAR\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.912\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.745(\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e1.131\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.771)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c4\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c5\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e1.105\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.819)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c6\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e2.029\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(1.349)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eGVAR\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-0.806***\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.225)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-0.755***\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.207)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c4\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c5\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-1.129***\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.315)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c6\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-1.241***\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.376)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003ePrimary Surplus (t-1)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.034\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.049)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.027\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.047)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c4\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c5\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.017\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.061)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c6\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.027\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.065)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eFiscal Rule Index\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.004\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.002)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.003\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.002)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c4\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c5\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.003\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.003)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c6\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.002\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.003)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eSquared change of debt\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-0.170\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.432)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-0.100\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.497)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c4\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c5\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e1.770**\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.767)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c6\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e1.439**\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.675)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eExpenditure Preferences of Voters\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-0.004\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.013\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-0.002\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.012)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c4\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c5\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-0.001\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.026)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c6\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-0.019\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.027)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eCantonal Time Trend\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eYes\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eYes\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c4\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c5\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eYes\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c6\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eYes\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eCSA Controls\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eYes\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eYes\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c4\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c5\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eYes\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c6\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eYes\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eCantons\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e25\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e25\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c4\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c5\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e25\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c6\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e25\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eYears\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e41\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e41\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c4\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c5\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e31\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c6\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e31\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eN\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e1,025\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e1,025\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c4\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c5\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e775\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c6\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e775\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colspan=\\\"6\\\" nameend=\\\"c6\\\" namest=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eDependent variable: Primary Surplus relative to imputed cantonal GDP. Effects are estimated with Pesaran\\u0026rsquo;s (\\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR42\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2006\\u003c/span\\u003e) CCEMG estimator that controls for cross-sectional-dependence and time variant unobservables with heterogenous impact across panels. We use the Stata routine xtmg.\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003c/tbody\\u003e \\u003c/colgroup\\u003e \\u003c/table\\u003e\\u003c/div\\u003e \\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e \\u003cdiv class=\\\"gridtable\\\"\\u003e\\u003ctable float=\\\"Yes\\\" id=\\\"Tab9\\\" border=\\\"1\\\"\\u003e \\u003ccaption language=\\\"En\\\"\\u003e \\u003cdiv class=\\\"CaptionNumber\\\"\\u003eTable A4\\u003c/div\\u003e \\u003cdiv class=\\\"CaptionContent\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eExcluding Cantons with Non-Stationary Debt Series\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/div\\u003e \\u003c/caption\\u003e \\u003ccolgroup cols=\\\"5\\\"\\u003e \\u003cdiv align=\\\"left\\\" class=\\\"colspec\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\" colnum=\\\"1\\\"\\u003e\\u003c/div\\u003e \\u003cdiv align=\\\"left\\\" class=\\\"colspec\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\" colnum=\\\"2\\\"\\u003e\\u003c/div\\u003e \\u003cdiv align=\\\"left\\\" class=\\\"colspec\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\" colnum=\\\"3\\\"\\u003e\\u003c/div\\u003e \\u003cdiv align=\\\"left\\\" class=\\\"colspec\\\" colname=\\\"c4\\\" colnum=\\\"4\\\"\\u003e\\u003c/div\\u003e \\u003cdiv align=\\\"left\\\" class=\\\"colspec\\\" colname=\\\"c5\\\" colnum=\\\"5\\\"\\u003e\\u003c/div\\u003e \\u003cthead\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003cth align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/th\\u003e \\u003cth align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e1977\\u0026ndash;2017\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(1)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/th\\u003e \\u003cth align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e1987\\u0026ndash;2017\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(2)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/th\\u003e \\u003cth align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c4\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e1987\\u0026ndash;2017\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(3)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/th\\u003e \\u003cth align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c5\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e1987\\u0026ndash;2017\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(4)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/th\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003c/thead\\u003e \\u003ctbody\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eLagged Debt\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.081**\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.041)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.167***\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.056)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c4\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.163***\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.048)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c5\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.103**\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.050)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eLagged Debt*No. of Bottom-up Votes\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.015**\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.007)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.020*\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.011)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c4\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c5\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eLagged Debt*No. of Bottom-up Votes Approved\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c4\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.023\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.026)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c5\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eLagged Debt*No. of Bottom-up Votes Non-Approved\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c4\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c5\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.033\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.021)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eNo. of Bottom-up Votes\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c4\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c5\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eNo. of Bottom-up Votes Approved\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c4\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-0.002\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.002)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c5\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eNo. of Bottom-up Votes Non-Approved\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c4\\\"\\u003e\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c5\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-0.002\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.002)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eYVAR\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.796\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.674)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.536\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.973)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c4\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.769\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(1.386)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c5\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.593\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(1.530)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eGVAR\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-0.772***\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.246)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-1.108***\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.321)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c4\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-1.180***\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.309)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c5\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-1.105***\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.306)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003ePrimary Surplus (t-1)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.023\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.049)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-0.052\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.044)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c4\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-0.086*\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.049)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c5\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.008\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.044)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eFiscal Rule Index\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.004*\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.002)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.004\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.003)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c4\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.004\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.004)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c5\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.004\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.002)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eSquared change of debt\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-0.103\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.449)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.688\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(1.182)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c4\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e1.217\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(1.013)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c5\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e1.336\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(1.116)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eExpenditure Preferences of Voters\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-0.001\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.014)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.003\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.019)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c4\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e0.012\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.024)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c5\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e-0.004\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e(0.015)\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eCantonal Time Trend\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eYes\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eYes\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c4\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eYes\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c5\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eYes\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eCSA Controls\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eYes\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eYes\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c4\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eYes\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c5\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eYes\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eCantons\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e21\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e21\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c4\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e21\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c5\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e21\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eYears\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e41\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e31\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c4\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e31\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c5\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e31\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eN\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e861\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c3\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e651\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c4\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e651\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c5\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e651\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colspan=\\\"5\\\" nameend=\\\"c5\\\" namest=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eDependent variable: Primary Surplus relative to imputed cantonal GDP. Effects are estimated with Pesaran\\u0026rsquo;s (\\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR42\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2006\\u003c/span\\u003e) CCEMG estimator that controls for cross-sectional-dependence and time variant unobservables with heterogenous impact across panels. We use the Stata routine xtmg.\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003c/tbody\\u003e \\u003c/colgroup\\u003e \\u003c/table\\u003e\\u003c/div\\u003e \\u003c/p\\u003e\"},{\"header\":\"Declarations\",\"content\":\"\\u003ch2\\u003eAuthor Contribution\\u003c/h2\\u003e\\u003cp\\u003eAll three authors jointly developed the idea to analyze this research question; all three authors took their share in drafting and reviewing the manuscript. Yannick Bury collected the data and conducted the econometric analysis.\\u003c/p\\u003e\\u003ch2\\u003eAcknowledgements:\\u003c/h2\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eWe thank John Matsusaka for valuable comments.\\u003c/p\\u003e\"},{\"header\":\"References\",\"content\":\"\\u003col\\u003e\\n \\u003cli\\u003eAsatryan, Z., Baskaran, T., Grigoriadis, T. and Heinemann, F. (2017) \\u0026ldquo;Direct Democracy and Local Public Finances under Cooperative Federalism\\u0026rdquo; Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 119: 801-820.\\u003c/li\\u003e\\n \\u003cli\\u003eBarro, R.J. (1981) \\u0026ldquo;Output Effects of Government Purchases\\u0026rdquo; Journal of Political Economy, 89: 1086-1121.\\u003c/li\\u003e\\n \\u003cli\\u003eBarro, R.J. (1986) \\u0026ldquo;US Deficits since World War II\\u0026rdquo; Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 88: 195-222.\\u003c/li\\u003e\\n \\u003cli\\u003eBesley, T. and Coate, S. (2008) \\u0026ldquo;Issue Unbundling via Citizen\\u0026rsquo;s Initiatives\\u0026rdquo; Quarterly Journal of Political Science, 3: 379-397.\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/li\\u003e\\n \\u003cli\\u003eBoehmke, F.J. (2005) \\u003cem\\u003eThe Indirect Effect of Direct Legislation: How Institutions Shape Interest Group Systems\\u003c/em\\u003e. Columbus: Ohio State University Press.\\u003c/li\\u003e\\n \\u003cli\\u003eBoehmke, F.J. and Bowen, D.C. (2010) \\u0026ldquo;Direct Democracy and Individual Interest Group Membership\\u0026rdquo; Journal of Politics, 72: 659-671. \\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/li\\u003e\\n \\u003cli\\u003eBohn, H. (1995) \\u0026ldquo;The Sustainability of Budget Deficits in a Stochastic Economy\\u0026rdquo; Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 27: 257-271.\\u003c/li\\u003e\\n \\u003cli\\u003eBohn, H. (1998) \\u0026ldquo;The Behavior of US Public Debt and Deficits\\u0026rdquo; Quarterly Journal of Economics, 113: 949-963.\\u003c/li\\u003e\\n \\u003cli\\u003eBohn, H. (2007) \\u0026ldquo;Are Stationarity and Cointegration Restrictions Really Necessary for the Intertemporal Budget Constraint?\\u0026rdquo; Journal of Monetary Economics, 54: 1837-1847.\\u003c/li\\u003e\\n \\u003cli\\u003eBohn, H. (2008) \\u0026ldquo;The Sustainability of Fiscal Policy in the United States\\u0026rdquo; In: R. Neck and J.E. Sturm (eds.), \\u003cem\\u003eSustainability of Public Debt\\u003c/em\\u003e, Cambridge: MIT Press, 15-49.\\u003c/li\\u003e\\n \\u003cli\\u003eBurret, H.T. and Feld, L.P. (2018)\\u0026nbsp;\\u0026ldquo;Vertical Effects of Fiscal Rules: The Swiss Experience\\u0026ldquo;\\u0026nbsp;International Tax and Public Finance, 25: 673\\u0026ndash;721.\\u003c/li\\u003e\\n \\u003cli\\u003eClaeys. P. (2006) \\u0026ldquo;Policy Mix and Debt Sustainability: Evidence from Fiscal Policy Rules\\u0026rdquo; Empirica, 33: 89-112.\\u003c/li\\u003e\\n \\u003cli\\u003eDafflon, B. and Pujol, F. 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Zarin-Nejadan (eds.) \\u003cem\\u003eContemporary Switzerland: Revisiting the Special Case\\u003c/em\\u003e, Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan, 281-296.\\u003c/li\\u003e\\n \\u003cli\\u003eFeld, L.P. and Kirchg\\u0026auml;ssner, G. (2007) \\u0026ldquo;On the Effectiveness of Debt Brakes: The Swiss Experience\\u0026rdquo; In: R. Neck and J.E. Sturm (eds.), \\u003cem\\u003eSustainability of Public Debt\\u003c/em\\u003e, Cambridge: MIT Press: 223-255.\\u003c/li\\u003e\\n \\u003cli\\u003eFeld, L.P. and Matsusaka, J.G. (2003) \\u0026ldquo;Budget Referendums and Government Spending: Evidence from Swiss Cantons\\u0026rdquo; Journal of Public Economics, 87: 2703-2714.\\u003c/li\\u003e\\n \\u003cli\\u003eFeld, L.P., Kirchg\\u0026auml;ssner G. and Schaltegger, C.A. 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(1979) \\u0026ldquo;Bureaucrats versus Voters: On the Political Economy of Resource Allocation by Direct Democracy\\u0026rdquo; Quarterly Journal of Economics, 93: 563-587.\\u003c/li\\u003e\\n \\u003cli\\u003eSchaltegger, C.A. (2002) \\u0026ldquo;Budgetregeln und ihre Wirkung auf die \\u0026ouml;ffentlichen Haushalte: Empirische Ergebnisse aus den US-Bundesstaaten und den Schweizer Kantonen\\u0026rdquo; Schmollers Jahrbuch, 122: 361-413.\\u003c/li\\u003e\\n \\u003cli\\u003eSmith, D.A. and Tolbert, C.J. (2004) \\u003cem\\u003eEducated by Initiative: The Effects of Direct Democracy in Citizens and Political Organizations on the American States\\u003c/em\\u003e. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.\\u003c/li\\u003e\\n \\u003cli\\u003eTheofilakou N. and Stournaras Y. (2012) \\u0026ldquo;Government Solvency and Financial Markets: Dynamic Panel Estimates for the European Monetary Union\\u0026rdquo; Economics Letters, 115: 130-133.\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/li\\u003e\\n\\u003c/ol\\u003e\"},{\"header\":\"Footnotes\",\"content\":\"\\u003col\\u003e\\u003cli\\u003e\\u003cspan\\u003e For a detailed overview over the implementation of these institutions in Switzerland and the US as the two countries that use direct democracy most actively, see Matsusaka (\\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR35\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2018\\u003c/span\\u003e).\\u003c/span\\u003e\\u003c/li\\u003e\\u003cli\\u003e\\u003cspan\\u003e A special form of direct democratic provisions in the cantons are cantonal assemblies similar to town meetings at the local level. Today, only two cantons (Appenzell-Inner-Rhodes and Glarus) still use cantonal assemblies to involve their electorate in public decision-making. In these assemblies, all voters that are entitled to vote meet at a central place in the canton. Decisions are made by acclamation of all eligible voters that are present.\\u003c/span\\u003e\\u003c/li\\u003e\\u003cli\\u003e\\u003cspan\\u003e The canton of Jura seceded from the canton of Berne in 1979.\\u003c/span\\u003e\\u003c/li\\u003e\\u003c/ol\\u003e\"}],\"fulltextSource\":\"\",\"fullText\":\"\",\"funders\":[],\"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow\":false,\"hasManuscriptDocX\":true,\"hasOptedInToPreprint\":true,\"hasPassedJournalQc\":\"\",\"hasAnyPriority\":false,\"hideJournal\":true,\"highlight\":\"\",\"institution\":\"\",\"isAcceptedByJournal\":false,\"isAuthorSuppliedPdf\":false,\"isDeskRejected\":\"\",\"isHiddenFromSearch\":false,\"isInQc\":false,\"isInWorkflow\":false,\"isPdf\":false,\"isPdfUpToDate\":true,\"isWithdrawnOrRetracted\":false,\"journal\":{\"display\":true,\"email\":\"info@researchsquare.com\",\"identity\":\"researchsquare\",\"isNatureJournal\":false,\"hasQc\":true,\"allowDirectSubmit\":true,\"externalIdentity\":\"\",\"sideBox\":\"\",\"snPcode\":\"\",\"submissionUrl\":\"/submission\",\"title\":\"Research Square\",\"twitterHandle\":\"researchsquare\",\"acdcEnabled\":true,\"dfaEnabled\":false,\"editorialSystem\":\"\",\"reportingPortfolio\":\"\",\"inReviewEnabled\":false,\"inReviewRevisionsEnabled\":true},\"keywords\":\"Direct Democracy, Political Process, Fiscal Policy\",\"lastPublishedDoi\":\"10.21203/rs.3.rs-3884955/v1\",\"lastPublishedDoiUrl\":\"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-3884955/v1\",\"license\":{\"name\":\"CC BY 4.0\",\"url\":\"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/\"},\"manuscriptAbstract\":\"\\u003cp\\u003eWe test whether the proactive use of instruments of direct democracy by voters can help to explain fiscal sustainability of 25 Swiss cantons. Using data of all cantonal popular votes since 1977, our results show that the fiscal reaction of cantonal governments to an increase in the debt to GDP ratio of a canton is stronger, the more cantonal voters actively made use of their direct democratic rights in the previous year.\\u003c/p\\u003e\\n\\u003cp\\u003e\\u003cstrong\\u003eJEL Codes:\\u003c/strong\\u003e H11 H50 D72\\u003c/p\\u003e\",\"manuscriptTitle\":\"Disciplining Ballots? – (Un-intended) Effects of Voter Engagement on the Fiscal Sustainability of Swiss Cantons\",\"msid\":\"\",\"msnumber\":\"\",\"nonDraftVersions\":[{\"code\":1,\"date\":\"2024-01-25 20:40:26\",\"doi\":\"10.21203/rs.3.rs-3884955/v1\",\"editorialEvents\":[{\"type\":\"communityComments\",\"content\":0}],\"status\":\"published\",\"journal\":{\"display\":true,\"email\":\"info@researchsquare.com\",\"identity\":\"researchsquare\",\"isNatureJournal\":false,\"hasQc\":true,\"allowDirectSubmit\":true,\"externalIdentity\":\"\",\"sideBox\":\"\",\"snPcode\":\"\",\"submissionUrl\":\"/submission\",\"title\":\"Research Square\",\"twitterHandle\":\"researchsquare\",\"acdcEnabled\":true,\"dfaEnabled\":false,\"editorialSystem\":\"\",\"reportingPortfolio\":\"\",\"inReviewEnabled\":false,\"inReviewRevisionsEnabled\":true}}],\"origin\":\"\",\"ownerIdentity\":\"b57d2f68-0041-4aed-99ae-b5d0702d261c\",\"owner\":[],\"postedDate\":\"January 25th, 2024\",\"published\":true,\"recentEditorialEvents\":[],\"rejectedJournal\":[],\"revision\":\"\",\"amendment\":\"\",\"status\":\"posted\",\"subjectAreas\":[],\"tags\":[],\"updatedAt\":\"2025-03-22T10:38:32+00:00\",\"versionOfRecord\":[],\"versionCreatedAt\":\"2024-01-25 20:40:26\",\"video\":\"\",\"vorDoi\":\"\",\"vorDoiUrl\":\"\",\"workflowStages\":[]},\"version\":\"v1\",\"identity\":\"rs-3884955\",\"journalConfig\":\"researchsquare\"},\"__N_SSP\":true},\"page\":\"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]\",\"query\":{\"redirect\":\"/article/rs-3884955\",\"identity\":\"rs-3884955\",\"version\":[\"v1\"]},\"buildId\":\"qtupq5eGEP_6zYnWcrvyt\",\"isFallback\":false,\"isExperimentalCompile\":false,\"dynamicIds\":[84888],\"gssp\":true,\"scriptLoader\":[]}","source_license":"CC-BY-4.0","license_restricted":false}