{"paper_id":"34a176c1-8be0-4256-944d-2c8087fbb4e2","body_text":"Assessing the Impact of Financial Technology on Banks: Evidence from Regression and Decision Tree Models | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Assessing the Impact of Financial Technology on Banks: Evidence from Regression and Decision Tree Models Kabungo Bwalya, Dr. James Daniel Paul This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8535454/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract This study examines the transformative impact of mobile banking applications on financial institution performance through a rigorous empirical analysis of Citibank, Goldman Sachs, and Capital One. Leveraging comprehensive U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) data spanning three decades (1993–2023), we employ econometric modeling techniques including Ordinary Least Squares regression and decision tree analysis to quantify the relationship between digital banking adoption and key financial indicators. The investigation is contextualized by an extensive review of 30 contemporary research papers and a bibliometric analysis of approximately 1,000 publications from 2014 to 2024, which identified the most prominent topics in financial technology literature. The results reveal compelling evidence that mobile banking technology functions as a significant catalyst for financial expansion. Post-implementation regression analyses demonstrate statistically significant balance sheet growth across all institutions, with mobile banking explaining 33–75% of asset variation. Notably, the analysis reveals an asymmetric impact pattern: while revenue exhibited modest positive growth (R² values of 16–17%), the more substantial explanatory power observed in asset and liability models suggests that mobile banking exerts a more profound influence on balance sheet structure than on immediate income generation. Capital One's case provides particularly instructive insights, with statistically significant improvements in profit margin (R² = 0.447) and net income (R² = 0.314) following digital transformation. Decision tree analyses further validate these findings, identifying structural breaks in financial performance trajectories coinciding precisely with mobile application deployment dates, while demonstrating reduced squared error in post-implementation periods. This research contributes to financial technology literature by establishing empirical linkages between digital banking capabilities and institutional financial performance. The findings support a platform-based growth interpretation wherein mobile banking facilitates enhanced capital accumulation through improved customer acquisition and retention mechanisms before fully monetizing these expanded relationships. Finance Other Economics Fintech Financial Technology Financial Industry Traditional Banking Full Text Additional Declarations The authors declare no competing interests. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. 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Impact of Financial Technology on Banks: Evidence from Regression and Decision Tree Models\\u003c/p\\u003e\",\"fulltext\":[],\"fulltextSource\":\"\",\"fullText\":\"\",\"funders\":[],\"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow\":false,\"hasManuscriptDocX\":false,\"hasOptedInToPreprint\":true,\"hasPassedJournalQc\":\"\",\"hasAnyPriority\":true,\"hideJournal\":true,\"highlight\":\"\",\"institution\":\"\",\"isAcceptedByJournal\":false,\"isAuthorSuppliedPdf\":true,\"isDeskRejected\":\"\",\"isHiddenFromSearch\":false,\"isInQc\":false,\"isInWorkflow\":false,\"isPdf\":true,\"isPdfUpToDate\":true,\"isWithdrawnOrRetracted\":false,\"journal\":{\"display\":true,\"email\":\"info@researchsquare.com\",\"identity\":\"researchsquare\",\"isNatureJournal\":false,\"hasQc\":true,\"allowDirectSubmit\":true,\"externalIdentity\":\"\",\"sideBox\":\"\",\"snPcode\":\"\",\"submissionUrl\":\"/submission\",\"title\":\"Research Square\",\"twitterHandle\":\"researchsquare\",\"acdcEnabled\":true,\"dfaEnabled\":false,\"editorialSystem\":\"\",\"reportingPortfolio\":\"\",\"inReviewEnabled\":false,\"inReviewRevisionsEnabled\":true},\"keywords\":\"Fintech, Financial Technology, Financial Industry, Traditional Banking\",\"lastPublishedDoi\":\"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8535454/v1\",\"lastPublishedDoiUrl\":\"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8535454/v1\",\"license\":{\"name\":\"CC BY 4.0\",\"url\":\"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/\"},\"manuscriptAbstract\":\"\\u003cp\\u003eThis study examines the transformative impact of mobile banking applications on financial institution performance through a rigorous empirical analysis of Citibank, Goldman Sachs, and Capital One. Leveraging comprehensive U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) data spanning three decades (1993\\u0026ndash;2023), we employ econometric modeling techniques including Ordinary Least Squares regression and decision tree analysis to quantify the relationship between digital banking adoption and key financial indicators. The investigation is contextualized by an extensive review of 30 contemporary research papers and a bibliometric analysis of approximately 1,000 publications from 2014 to 2024, which identified the most prominent topics in financial technology literature.\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eThe results reveal compelling evidence that mobile banking technology functions as a significant catalyst for financial expansion. Post-implementation regression analyses demonstrate statistically significant balance sheet growth across all institutions, with mobile banking explaining 33\\u0026ndash;75% of asset variation. Notably, the analysis reveals an asymmetric impact pattern: while revenue exhibited modest positive growth (R\\u0026sup2; values of 16\\u0026ndash;17%), the more substantial explanatory power observed in asset and liability models suggests that mobile banking exerts a more profound influence on balance sheet structure than on immediate income generation.\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eCapital One's case provides particularly instructive insights, with statistically significant improvements in profit margin (R\\u0026sup2; = 0.447) and net income (R\\u0026sup2; = 0.314) following digital transformation. Decision tree analyses further validate these findings, identifying structural breaks in financial performance trajectories coinciding precisely with mobile application deployment dates, while demonstrating reduced squared error in post-implementation periods.\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eThis research contributes to financial technology literature by establishing empirical linkages between digital banking capabilities and institutional financial performance. The findings support a platform-based growth interpretation wherein mobile banking facilitates enhanced capital accumulation through improved customer acquisition and retention mechanisms before fully monetizing these expanded relationships.\\u003c/p\\u003e\",\"manuscriptTitle\":\"Assessing the Impact of Financial Technology on Banks: Evidence from Regression and Decision Tree Models\",\"msid\":\"\",\"msnumber\":\"\",\"nonDraftVersions\":[{\"code\":1,\"date\":\"2026-01-08 05:03:33\",\"doi\":\"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8535454/v1\",\"editorialEvents\":[{\"type\":\"communityComments\",\"content\":0}],\"status\":\"published\",\"journal\":{\"display\":true,\"email\":\"info@researchsquare.com\",\"identity\":\"researchsquare\",\"isNatureJournal\":false,\"hasQc\":true,\"allowDirectSubmit\":true,\"externalIdentity\":\"\",\"sideBox\":\"\",\"snPcode\":\"\",\"submissionUrl\":\"/submission\",\"title\":\"Research Square\",\"twitterHandle\":\"researchsquare\",\"acdcEnabled\":true,\"dfaEnabled\":false,\"editorialSystem\":\"\",\"reportingPortfolio\":\"\",\"inReviewEnabled\":false,\"inReviewRevisionsEnabled\":true}}],\"origin\":\"\",\"ownerIdentity\":\"b1b78571-cb17-44b7-b949-0ee87c0fe8f1\",\"owner\":[],\"postedDate\":\"January 8th, 2026\",\"published\":true,\"recentEditorialEvents\":[],\"rejectedJournal\":[],\"revision\":\"\",\"amendment\":\"\",\"status\":\"posted\",\"subjectAreas\":[{\"id\":60704830,\"name\":\"Finance\"},{\"id\":60704831,\"name\":\"Other Economics\"}],\"tags\":[],\"updatedAt\":\"2026-01-08T05:03:33+00:00\",\"versionOfRecord\":[],\"versionCreatedAt\":\"2026-01-08 05:03:33\",\"video\":\"\",\"vorDoi\":\"\",\"vorDoiUrl\":\"\",\"workflowStages\":[]},\"version\":\"v1\",\"identity\":\"rs-8535454\",\"journalConfig\":\"researchsquare\"},\"__N_SSP\":true},\"page\":\"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]\",\"query\":{\"redirect\":\"/article/rs-8535454\",\"identity\":\"rs-8535454\",\"version\":[\"v1\"]},\"buildId\":\"XKTyCvWXoU3ODBz1xrDgd\",\"isFallback\":false,\"isExperimentalCompile\":false,\"dynamicIds\":[84888],\"gssp\":true,\"scriptLoader\":[]}","source_license":"CC-BY-4.0","license_restricted":false}