{"paper_id":"32325dbf-943a-44ac-b6a0-e31d8dc3deda","body_text":"A global decline in atmospheric dust during the 21st century | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article A global decline in atmospheric dust during the 21 st century Ashok Gupta, Jasper Kok, Vassilis Amiridis, Antonis Gkikas, Konstantinos Rizos, and 4 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8454087/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Mineral dust affects Earth’s energy budget, clouds, and biochemistry, yet the evolution of the global dust cycle in recent decades remains shrouded in uncertainty. Here we reconstruct the global dust cycle during the early 21st century by integrating a suite of global dust aerosol optical depth (DAOD) products from satellite-borne lidar, infrared sounders, and multi-spectral imagers; three aerosol reanalyses; and a compilation of dust-dominated AERONET sites into a large-ensemble inverse modeling framework. We show that North Africa has remained the dominant global dust source, yet it has experienced a decline in DAOD of −10 ± 8 % between 2003 and 2023. A comparable reduction is observed across Asia (−10 ± 12 %), together driving a global decrease of −10 ± 8 %. Similar declines in dust loading, emissions, and deposition indicate a coherent reduction of the global dust cycle. Individual satellite products converge on overall similar trends, providing the strongest evidence to date that the planet has become less dusty in the early 21st century. This decline in atmospheric dust has exerted a positive effective radiative forcing of +0.02 ± 0.05 W m⁻² over 2003–2023, implying that declining atmospheric dust might have modestly contributed to the rapid warming of the past two decades. Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Atmospheric science/Atmospheric dynamics Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change/Climate and Earth system modelling Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Supplementary Files SupplementaryInformation.pdf Supplemenatry Information Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {\"props\":{\"pageProps\":{\"initialData\":{\"identity\":\"rs-8454087\",\"acceptedTermsAndConditions\":true,\"allowDirectSubmit\":true,\"archivedVersions\":[],\"articleType\":\"Article\",\"associatedPublications\":[],\"authors\":[{\"id\":573814758,\"identity\":\"0fce5681-aa56-4d98-b970-809b8f572201\",\"order_by\":0,\"name\":\"Ashok 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