{"paper_id":"2e924e62-e598-453e-abb9-55a4518dff35","body_text":"Cycles, Constraints, and Systemic War: Structural Carriers of International Conflict Dynamics | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Cycles, Constraints, and Systemic War: Structural Carriers of International Conflict Dynamics Ingo Piepers This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7506234/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Wars between Europe’s great powers did not occur at random. From 1453 to 1945 they unfolded in accelerating cycles, each ending in a systemic war that reset rules and institutions. The escalation culminated in a finite-time singularity with the Second World War, marking a structural transition to a new global order. By analysing cycles rather than single conflicts, we show that the tempo of systemic breakdowns can be inferred from pre-1914 information, that war severity follows a predictable blow-up pattern, and that the post-1945 decline in hazard reflects reorganisation rather than the end of violent conflict. Early-warning patterns in state-system indicators track these shifts, revealing a common carrier that links acceleration, systemic reset, and regime change. This approach reframes conflict as a structural process governed by constraints rather than accident and offers quantitative tools to understand today’s crises. International Relations History systemic war finite-time singularity international conflict cycles structural constraints early warning Full Text Additional Declarations The authors declare no competing interests. Supplementary Files T1EDtablewarclassificationwithsources.csv ED Table T1 — War classification (Europe/GP, 1495–1945): a machine-readable registry (levy_no, name, start, end, war_class, cycle, f, bcd, source, bcd_source) listing all European great-power wars with functional class (NSW/SW), cycle assignment, participation fraction f at onset, and severity (BCD), underpinning Fig. 2, SI/Plasticity counts, and downstream aggregation of SW episodes. T2EDtablecyclebounds.csv ED Table T2 — Cycle bounds (1453 overlay & 1495 baseline): a machine-readable schedule of functional cycle boundaries—columns cycle, rsp_start, sw_start, sw_end, cycle_end—that defines the RSP windows and SW intervals used across all analyses, anchoring the Article timeline (Fig. 1) and cadence/severity tests. T3EDtablecyclemetricsfull.csv ED Table T3 — Cycle metrics (1495 baseline): a per-cycle summary (columns cycle; rsp_length; stability_SI; plasticity; terminal_sw_bcd) derived from T1 (NSW onsets, GP status changes) and T2 (bounds), supplying the inputs for Article Fig. 3A–B and ED Fig. 02a–b. Piepers2025EDNHB.docx Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {\"props\":{\"pageProps\":{\"initialData\":{\"identity\":\"rs-7506234\",\"acceptedTermsAndConditions\":true,\"allowDirectSubmit\":true,\"archivedVersions\":[],\"articleType\":\"Research Article\",\"associatedPublications\":[],\"authors\":[{\"id\":509274618,\"identity\":\"43af9238-7b19-463c-9c9d-d5e573485ad9\",\"order_by\":0,\"name\":\"Ingo Piepers\",\"email\":\"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA4UlEQVRIiWNgGAWjYBACNjBpACYZHwAJHj5StDCDKB42kmyUQBiCB/BJt198XFBgk8cvffxZ5dccOxk2BuaHj27gM1nmTLHxDIO0Ysm+HLPbstuSgQ5jMzbOweuYnDRpHoPDiRvO8LDdltzGDNTCwyZNhJb/ifvPsD8rltxWT4yW9GNALQcSN/AwmDF+3HaYKFuYgX5JLpY4w2MszbjtOA8bMwG/yM9If/i44I9dHn8P+8OPP7dV2/OzNz98jE8LMO4MmIFkAojJzAMm8SoHAfYHcC2MPwiqHgWjYBSMgpEIAFNGPin+tIhdAAAAAElFTkSuQmCC\",\"orcid\":\"\",\"institution\":\"\",\"correspondingAuthor\":true,\"prefix\":\"\",\"firstName\":\"Ingo\",\"middleName\":\"\",\"lastName\":\"Piepers\",\"suffix\":\"\"}],\"badges\":[],\"createdAt\":\"2025-09-01 08:48:50\",\"currentVersionCode\":1,\"declarations\":{\"humanSubjects\":false,\"vertebrateSubjects\":false,\"conflictsOfInterestStatement\":false,\"humanSubjectEthicalGuidelines\":false,\"humanSubjectConsent\":false,\"humanSubjectClinicalTrial\":false,\"humanSubjectCaseReport\":false,\"vertebrateSubjectEthicalGuidelines\":false},\"doi\":\"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7506234/v1\",\"doiUrl\":\"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7506234/v1\",\"draftVersion\":[],\"editorialEvents\":[],\"editorialNote\":\"\",\"failedWorkflow\":false,\"files\":[{\"id\":90556340,\"identity\":\"8785fae5-753e-41ee-8485-94498d597b94\",\"added_by\":\"auto\",\"created_at\":\"2025-09-04 04:33:16\",\"extension\":\"pdf\",\"order_by\":1,\"title\":\"\",\"display\":\"\",\"copyAsset\":false,\"role\":\"manuscript-pdf\",\"size\":924266,\"visible\":true,\"origin\":\"\",\"legend\":\"\",\"description\":\"\",\"filename\":\"Piepers2025CyclesConstraintsNHB.pdf\",\"url\":\"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7506234/v1_covered_d4f46e9b-cb0f-461e-b7b7-b2b3217a8b7b.pdf\"},{\"id\":90554665,\"identity\":\"9d6b0586-557f-4a60-86d1-01ded69164f4\",\"added_by\":\"auto\",\"created_at\":\"2025-09-04 04:09:14\",\"extension\":\"csv\",\"order_by\":1,\"title\":\"\",\"display\":\"\",\"copyAsset\":false,\"role\":\"supplement\",\"size\":13462,\"visible\":true,\"origin\":\"\",\"legend\":\"\\u003cp\\u003e\\u003cstrong\\u003eED Table T1 — War classification (Europe/GP, 1495–1945):\\u003c/strong\\u003e a machine-readable registry (levy_no, name, start, end, war_class, cycle, f, bcd, source, bcd_source) listing all European great-power wars with functional class (NSW/SW), cycle assignment, participation fraction f at onset, and severity (BCD), underpinning Fig. 2, SI/Plasticity counts, and downstream aggregation of SW episodes.\\u003c/p\\u003e\",\"description\":\"\",\"filename\":\"T1EDtablewarclassificationwithsources.csv\",\"url\":\"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7506234/v1/5a4eb18e2d48b2da7b5ec47a.csv\"},{\"id\":90554804,\"identity\":\"1f59bdce-ce1b-4c31-9175-635069a9e236\",\"added_by\":\"auto\",\"created_at\":\"2025-09-04 04:17:14\",\"extension\":\"csv\",\"order_by\":2,\"title\":\"\",\"display\":\"\",\"copyAsset\":false,\"role\":\"supplement\",\"size\":140,\"visible\":true,\"origin\":\"\",\"legend\":\"\\u003cp\\u003e\\u003cstrong\\u003eED Table T2 — Cycle bounds (1453 overlay \\u0026amp; 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