{"paper_id":"2d25072d-d2f5-4c23-bbae-ad2f6cc8f553","body_text":"An Integrated Assessment of Soil Erosion Risk in the Bilate Sub-Basin of Southern Ethiopia Using the SWAT Model and Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article An Integrated Assessment of Soil Erosion Risk in the Bilate Sub-Basin of Southern Ethiopia Using the SWAT Model and Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis Tsegaye Bekele, Asfaw Kebede, Awdenegest Moges This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-9106566/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted 11 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Soil erosion poses a significant environmental threat in Bilate sub-basin, where steep terrain, heavy rainfall, and unsustainable land use practices intensify the problem. This study employs an integrated approach combining the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model and Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) to evaluate soil erosion risk, overcoming the limitations of standalone methods. Geospatial data (e.g., LULC, slope, soil type) and hydrological modeling were used to identify erosion hotspots and quantify sediment yield. The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) weighted 11 erosion factors in MCDA, while SWAT simulated sediment yield using local hydro-meteorological data. Key findings indicated that 34.5% of the sub-basin is covered by erosion-prone Leptosols and Luvisols, while 29.9% has slopes exceeding 15%, intensifying erosion susceptibility. NDVI analysis indicated 72.4% of the area faces high erosion risk. Combined factors classified 65.16% of the sub-basin under moderate erosion severity, with 27.02% experiencing severe to extreme erosion. The SWAT result showed 51.2% of the area yielding 15-25 ton ha⁻¹ y⁻¹ (severe erosion), while 11.9% exceeded 25 ton ha⁻¹ y⁻¹ (extreme erosion). The SWAT-MCDA integrated analysis identified 53.46% of the sub-basin as severe and 9.12% as extremely severe erosion hotspots, particularly in downstream and upstream parts, threatening agricultural productivity and downstream ecosystems like Lake Abaya. In conclusion, the anthropogenic activities, especially agricultural expansion, were primary drivers of soil erosion, exacerbated by natural factors. The study recommends agroforestry, terracing, and check dams in high-risk areas, alongside policy measures to ensure sustainable land use practices in the sub-basin. SWAT MCDA AHP Bilate sub-basin Sediment yield Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Revision requested 15 Apr, 2026 Reviews received at journal 11 Apr, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 07 Apr, 2026 Reviews received at journal 07 Apr, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 05 Apr, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 05 Apr, 2026 Reviewers invited by journal 05 Apr, 2026 Editor assigned by journal 26 Mar, 2026 Editor invited by journal 23 Mar, 2026 Submission checks completed at journal 19 Mar, 2026 First submitted to journal 19 Mar, 2026 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {\"props\":{\"pageProps\":{\"initialData\":{\"identity\":\"rs-9106566\",\"acceptedTermsAndConditions\":true,\"allowDirectSubmit\":false,\"archivedVersions\":[],\"articleType\":\"Research Article\",\"associatedPublications\":[],\"authors\":[{\"id\":619095084,\"identity\":\"5582d8ef-91f9-4431-ae92-54387eea9d6f\",\"order_by\":0,\"name\":\"Tsegaye Bekele\",\"email\":\"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA8klEQVRIiWNgGAWjYJACxgYDZjk2ZvaDD4AcHj5CynmgWoz52XuSDUACbMRpYWBOnNlzwEwCJEJQiz3/4cMvZxRYM264kZBW+TXHToaNgfnhoxv4bJFIS7PcYJDObHAj8dht2W3JQIexGRvn4NXCY2b4wOAwmwHQltuS25iBWnjYpPFq4T//DaSFB6jFrFhyWz0RWhhymB9uMDgsIQn0PuPHbYeJ0HIjzYxxhkG6ASiQpRm3HedhYybgF/b+w48/9vyxrm8DRuXHn9uq7fnZmx8+xqcFCNgkYCxmHjCJXzlYyQcYi/EHYdWjYBSMglEwAgEAPV1GiKQZQzsAAAAASUVORK5CYII=\",\"orcid\":\"\",\"institution\":\"South Ethiopia Agricultural Research Institute, Areka Agricultural Research Center\",\"correspondingAuthor\":true,\"prefix\":\"\",\"firstName\":\"Tsegaye\",\"middleName\":\"\",\"lastName\":\"Bekele\",\"suffix\":\"\"},{\"id\":619095085,\"identity\":\"50e04aaa-5289-4f1a-86c5-8b2c5681cbab\",\"order_by\":1,\"name\":\"Asfaw Kebede\",\"email\":\"\",\"orcid\":\"\",\"institution\":\"School of Water Resource and Environmental Engineering, Haramaya Institute of Technology, Haramaya University\",\"correspondingAuthor\":false,\"prefix\":\"\",\"firstName\":\"Asfaw\",\"middleName\":\"\",\"lastName\":\"Kebede\",\"suffix\":\"\"},{\"id\":619095086,\"identity\":\"fdc071c3-333c-4ced-bfcf-348913fe32af\",\"order_by\":2,\"name\":\"Awdenegest Moges\",\"email\":\"\",\"orcid\":\"\",\"institution\":\"Biosystems Engineering Department, Hawassa University\",\"correspondingAuthor\":false,\"prefix\":\"\",\"firstName\":\"Awdenegest\",\"middleName\":\"\",\"lastName\":\"Moges\",\"suffix\":\"\"}],\"badges\":[],\"createdAt\":\"2026-03-12 15:38:13\",\"currentVersionCode\":1,\"declarations\":\"\",\"doi\":\"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9106566/v1\",\"doiUrl\":\"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9106566/v1\",\"draftVersion\":[],\"editorialEvents\":[],\"editorialNote\":\"\",\"failedWorkflow\":false,\"files\":[{\"id\":106726995,\"identity\":\"455d44d8-c1e4-4bc7-9884-8111bbcb7ba7\",\"added_by\":\"auto\",\"created_at\":\"2026-04-12 18:37:55\",\"extension\":\"pdf\",\"order_by\":1,\"title\":\"\",\"display\":\"\",\"copyAsset\":false,\"role\":\"manuscript-pdf\",\"size\":1191460,\"visible\":true,\"origin\":\"\",\"legend\":\"\",\"description\":\"\",\"filename\":\"Integratedsoilerosionassessentpaper.pdf\",\"url\":\"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-9106566/v1_covered_4391707a-b110-41fb-8279-db832ec19cea.pdf\"}],\"financialInterests\":\"No competing interests reported.\",\"formattedTitle\":\"An Integrated Assessment of Soil Erosion Risk in the Bilate Sub-Basin of Southern Ethiopia Using the SWAT Model and Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis\",\"fulltext\":[],\"fulltextSource\":\"\",\"fullText\":\"\",\"funders\":[],\"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow\":false,\"hasManuscriptDocX\":false,\"hasOptedInToPreprint\":true,\"hasPassedJournalQc\":\"\",\"hasAnyPriority\":false,\"hideJournal\":false,\"highlight\":\"\",\"institution\":\"\",\"isAcceptedByJournal\":false,\"isAuthorSuppliedPdf\":true,\"isDeskRejected\":\"\",\"isHiddenFromSearch\":false,\"isInQc\":false,\"isInWorkflow\":false,\"isPdf\":true,\"isPdfUpToDate\":true,\"isWithdrawnOrRetracted\":false,\"journal\":{\"display\":true,\"email\":\"info@researchsquare.com\",\"identity\":\"discover-sustainability\",\"isNatureJournal\":false,\"hasQc\":true,\"allowDirectSubmit\":false,\"externalIdentity\":\"disu\",\"sideBox\":\"Learn more about [Discover Sustainability](https://www.springer.com/43621)\",\"snPcode\":\"\",\"submissionUrl\":\"\",\"title\":\"Discover Sustainability\",\"twitterHandle\":\"\",\"acdcEnabled\":true,\"dfaEnabled\":true,\"editorialSystem\":\"stoa\",\"reportingPortfolio\":\"Discover Series\",\"inReviewEnabled\":true,\"inReviewRevisionsEnabled\":true},\"keywords\":\"SWAT, MCDA, AHP, Bilate sub-basin, Sediment yield\",\"lastPublishedDoi\":\"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9106566/v1\",\"lastPublishedDoiUrl\":\"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9106566/v1\",\"license\":{\"name\":\"CC BY 4.0\",\"url\":\"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/\"},\"manuscriptAbstract\":\"Soil erosion poses a significant environmental threat in Bilate sub-basin, where steep terrain, heavy rainfall, and unsustainable land use practices intensify the problem. This study employs an integrated approach combining the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model and Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) to evaluate soil erosion risk, overcoming the limitations of standalone methods. Geospatial data (e.g., LULC, slope, soil type) and hydrological modeling were used to identify erosion hotspots and quantify sediment yield. The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) weighted 11 erosion factors in MCDA, while SWAT simulated sediment yield using local hydro-meteorological data. Key findings indicated that 34.5% of the sub-basin is covered by erosion-prone Leptosols and Luvisols, while 29.9% has slopes exceeding 15%, intensifying erosion susceptibility. NDVI analysis indicated 72.4% of the area faces high erosion risk. Combined factors classified 65.16% of the sub-basin under moderate erosion severity, with 27.02% experiencing severe to extreme erosion. The SWAT result showed 51.2% of the area yielding 15-25 ton ha⁻¹ y⁻¹ (severe erosion), while 11.9% exceeded 25 ton ha⁻¹ y⁻¹ (extreme erosion). The SWAT-MCDA integrated analysis identified 53.46% of the sub-basin as severe and 9.12% as extremely severe erosion hotspots, particularly in downstream and upstream parts, threatening agricultural productivity and downstream ecosystems like Lake Abaya. In conclusion, the anthropogenic activities, especially agricultural expansion, were primary drivers of soil erosion, exacerbated by natural factors. 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