{"paper_id":"2cd27f92-f17c-47b1-9aec-82d28fa21706","body_text":"Food Inflation, Household Food Insecurity, and Coping Strategies in Urban Ethiopia | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Food Inflation, Household Food Insecurity, and Coping Strategies in Urban Ethiopia Solomon Girma Yirdaw, Professor Messay Mulugeta Tefera, Professor Mogessie Ashenafi, and 1 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8572806/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Food inflation in Addis Ababa has critically undermined household purchasing power, reshaping food security and coping responses. This study examines the nexus between household food security, inflation perceptions, and coping strategies in Ethiopia’s capital through a cross‑sectional mixed‑methods design conducted between October and December 2024. Using stratified two‑stage cluster sampling, 624 households across eleven sub‑cities were surveyed. Data collection combined digital questionnaires, key informant interviews, and focus group discussions. Results revealed entrenched vulnerabilities, average family size was 3.6, 78.9% of households were female-headed, and 89.3% classified as ultra-poor. Education and employment emerged as determined, with 81.7% of high school and 78.4% of college-educated households achieving acceptable Food Consumption Scores (FCS), compared to 71.4% of uneducated households moderately insecure. Government employees reported 81.9% acceptable consumption, while 20.0% of casual laborers fell into poor categories. Wealth disparities were stark, with 63.2% of better-off households’ food secure versus 50.6% of ultra-poor. Coping intensity was highest among younger heads and larger families, with 86.4% shifting to cheaper foods. Inflation perceptions were severe, 70.2% rated current inflation “very high,” and 78.2% reported “very significant” increases over 12 months. Institutional supports offered partial buffers. Urban productive safety net participation was linked to severe coping (19.6%), while non-participants remained largely in low coping (87.7%, p < 0.001). Health insurance modestly reduced “very high” perceptions, and informal safety nets such as Idir proved strongly protective (89.9% low coping, p < 0.001). Econometric analysis confirmed robust fit, with FCS strongest (pseudo-R² 0.22–0.24). Education, employment, and wealth consistently improved outcomes, while PSNP participation and consumer association membership reduced FCS. Findings underscore that food security is both economic and perceptual. Policy responses must integrate inflation-indexed urban safety nets, pension reform, expanded health insurance, and accessible credit, while embedding informal mechanisms such as Idir into formal protection systems. Transparent market information and recognition of women’s adaptive roles are vital to stabilize expectations and promote equitable coping in Ethiopia’s rapidly urbanizing context. Behavioral Economics Econometrics Urban Studies Urban Food Security Inflation Perceptions Coping Strategies Social Protection Informal Safety Nets (Idir) Addis Ababa Econometric Analysis (GOL ZINB) Full Text Additional Declarations The authors declare no competing interests. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. 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This study examines the nexus between household food security, inflation perceptions, and coping strategies in Ethiopia\\u0026rsquo;s capital through a cross‑sectional mixed‑methods design conducted between October and December 2024. Using stratified two‑stage cluster sampling, 624 households across eleven sub‑cities were surveyed. Data collection combined digital questionnaires, key informant interviews, and focus group discussions. Results revealed entrenched vulnerabilities, average family size was 3.6, 78.9% of households were female-headed, and 89.3% classified as ultra-poor. Education and employment emerged as determined, with 81.7% of high school and 78.4% of college-educated households achieving acceptable Food Consumption Scores (FCS), compared to 71.4% of uneducated households moderately insecure. Government employees reported 81.9% acceptable consumption, while 20.0% of casual laborers fell into poor categories. Wealth disparities were stark, with 63.2% of better-off households\\u0026rsquo; food secure versus 50.6% of ultra-poor. Coping intensity was highest among younger heads and larger families, with 86.4% shifting to cheaper foods. Inflation perceptions were severe, 70.2% rated current inflation \\u0026ldquo;very high,\\u0026rdquo; and 78.2% reported \\u0026ldquo;very significant\\u0026rdquo; increases over 12 months. Institutional supports offered partial buffers. Urban productive safety net participation was linked to severe coping (19.6%), while non-participants remained largely in low coping (87.7%, p\\u0026thinsp;\\u0026lt;\\u0026thinsp;0.001). Health insurance modestly reduced \\u0026ldquo;very high\\u0026rdquo; perceptions, and informal safety nets such as \\u003cem\\u003eIdir\\u003c/em\\u003e proved strongly protective (89.9% low coping, p\\u0026thinsp;\\u0026lt;\\u0026thinsp;0.001). Econometric analysis confirmed robust fit, with FCS strongest (pseudo-R\\u0026sup2; 0.22\\u0026ndash;0.24). Education, employment, and wealth consistently improved outcomes, while PSNP participation and consumer association membership reduced FCS. Findings underscore that food security is both economic and perceptual. Policy responses must integrate inflation-indexed urban safety nets, pension reform, expanded health insurance, and accessible credit, while embedding informal mechanisms such as \\u003cem\\u003eIdir\\u003c/em\\u003e into formal protection systems. Transparent market information and recognition of women\\u0026rsquo;s adaptive roles are vital to stabilize expectations and promote equitable coping in Ethiopia\\u0026rsquo;s rapidly urbanizing context.\\u003c/p\\u003e\",\"manuscriptTitle\":\"Food Inflation, Household Food Insecurity, and Coping Strategies in Urban Ethiopia\",\"msid\":\"\",\"msnumber\":\"\",\"nonDraftVersions\":[{\"code\":1,\"date\":\"2026-01-13 02:47:55\",\"doi\":\"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8572806/v1\",\"editorialEvents\":[{\"type\":\"communityComments\",\"content\":0}],\"status\":\"published\",\"journal\":{\"display\":true,\"email\":\"info@researchsquare.com\",\"identity\":\"researchsquare\",\"isNatureJournal\":false,\"hasQc\":true,\"allowDirectSubmit\":true,\"externalIdentity\":\"\",\"sideBox\":\"\",\"snPcode\":\"\",\"submissionUrl\":\"/submission\",\"title\":\"Research Square\",\"twitterHandle\":\"researchsquare\",\"acdcEnabled\":true,\"dfaEnabled\":false,\"editorialSystem\":\"\",\"reportingPortfolio\":\"\",\"inReviewEnabled\":false,\"inReviewRevisionsEnabled\":true}}],\"origin\":\"\",\"ownerIdentity\":\"5647cf47-6975-43e6-8f05-27fc6147d85f\",\"owner\":[],\"postedDate\":\"January 13th, 2026\",\"published\":true,\"recentEditorialEvents\":[],\"rejectedJournal\":[],\"revision\":\"\",\"amendment\":\"\",\"status\":\"posted\",\"subjectAreas\":[{\"id\":60940115,\"name\":\"Behavioral Economics\"},{\"id\":60940116,\"name\":\"Econometrics\"},{\"id\":60940117,\"name\":\"Urban Studies\"}],\"tags\":[],\"updatedAt\":\"2026-01-13T02:47:55+00:00\",\"versionOfRecord\":[],\"versionCreatedAt\":\"2026-01-13 02:47:55\",\"video\":\"\",\"vorDoi\":\"\",\"vorDoiUrl\":\"\",\"workflowStages\":[]},\"version\":\"v1\",\"identity\":\"rs-8572806\",\"journalConfig\":\"researchsquare\"},\"__N_SSP\":true},\"page\":\"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]\",\"query\":{\"redirect\":\"/article/rs-8572806\",\"identity\":\"rs-8572806\",\"version\":[\"v1\"]},\"buildId\":\"XKTyCvWXoU3ODBz1xrDgd\",\"isFallback\":false,\"isExperimentalCompile\":false,\"dynamicIds\":[84888],\"gssp\":true,\"scriptLoader\":[]}","source_license":"CC-BY-4.0","license_restricted":false}