{"paper_id":"2cce3a32-1e50-45da-b4a1-907b2b5303eb","body_text":"1\nExamining clan conflict dynamics and their role in driving displacement: insights from \nSomalia.\n1*Mohamud Isse Yusuf, East Africa University (Qardho campus), Email: \nmohamud.isse@eauqardho.edu.so;/mciise01@gmail.com  ORCID ID: 0009-0006-3510-299X; \nTel No.: +252907734000. \n1* Ahmed Adan Mohamed, Abyan Consulting Limited, Email: Info@abyanconsulting.com; ORCID \nID: 0009-0001-8871-9524; Tel No.: +252907116628.\n2*Dr. Abdisamad Abdirahman Omar, African Institute for Multidisciplinary Studies, \nAbdisamad@aims.so \nABSTRACT. \nThis study examined the clan conflict dynamics and their role in driving displacement in Somalia. \nA comprehensive literature review and quantitative retrospective data analysis were employed to \nobtain the study's data. The study used inferential statistical tests of correlation and linear \nregression analysis to examine the association between clan conflict frequency and displacement. \nUtilizing correlational analyses, the research demonstrates a strong positive correlation (Pearson's \nr = 0.705, p < 0.05) between clan-based conflict and displacement. \nMoreover, the study examines the relationship between clan-based conflicts and population \ndisplacement in Somalia using Linear Regression Analysis. The results indicate a robust positive \nassociation between these two variables, with a correlation coefficient (R) of 0.705. The statistical \nsignificance of the regression model is confirmed by the ANOVA results, which show an F-\nstatistic of 8.891 and a p-value of 0.015, demonstrating that clan conflict serves as a significant \npredictor of displacement. The coefficients table further corroborates this finding, revealing a \nstandardized coefficient (Beta) of 0.705 and a p-value of 0.015, which suggests a strong and \nstatistically significant association between clan conflict and displacement.  Finally, the study \nproposes several recommendations to address these issues, including community-level resilience \ninitiatives, early conflict warning systems, data-driven decision-making, sustainable income \ngeneration programs, and multi-stakeholder collaboration. \nKEYWORDS: clan conflict, displacement, conflict dynamics, conflict-induced displacement, \nSomali communities. \n . CC-BY 4.0 International licenseIt is made available under a \n is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. (which was not certified by peer review)\nThe copyright holder for this preprint this version posted November 2, 2025. ; https://doi.org/10.1101/2025.10.30.25339180doi: medRxiv preprint \nNOTE: This preprint reports new research that has not been certified by peer review and should not be used to guide clinical practice.\n\n2\nIntroduction.\nGlobally, conflict is seen as a key issue that impedes growth (Happi, 2016). Throughout history, \nnumerous regions worldwide, particularly arid areas with limited natural resources, have been \nplagued by conflicts. Huho (2012) suggests that conflict arises from structural inequalities and \nimbalanced power distribution. A conflict situation emerges when two or more distinct groups \nactively confront each other, pursuing incompatible objectives (Salad, 2015).  Other scholars also \nsuggest that conflict emerges from competing interests over limited resources, divergent goals, \nand frustration. This occurs in relationships characterized by both competitive and cooperative \nelements, where individuals have conflicting motivations (Kamta & Scheffran, 2022). However, \nConflict is an unavoidable aspect of society, emerging through various processes such as societal \nshifts, individual psychological growth, economic disparities, the formation of cultural identities, \nand the structuring of political systems (ONGAGA, 2017).\nConversely, global displacement patterns have been increasing due to various challenges including \nclimate change, insecurity, and conflict. This worldwide surge in population displacement has \nsignificantly affected the global food system (Osman & Abebe, 2023). According to the United \nNations, roughly 30% of the world's population, primarily in developing nations, is currently \nfacing food insecurity. Conflicts leading to mass migration are a major contributor to these issues. \nThe forced abandonment of agricultural lands disrupts food production and frequently results in \nfamine (Osman & Abebe, 2023).\nFor the past 25 years, Somalia has been devoid of any reliable peace and stability since 1991 \n(Mohamed & Samantar). It is widely accepted that the ongoing conflicts driven by political, clan, \nand religious factors in Somalia have resulted in a significant wave of displacement, both within \nthe country and as refugee migration to other nations(Mohamed & Samantar). Most conflict-\nrelated research often neglects the connections between development, environmental, and conflict-\ndriven displacements. \nHowever, in Somalia's case, four interconnected factors have contributed to population \ndisplacement: armed conflict, ethnic and racial persecution, environmental disasters like drought, \nfloods, and famine, and development projects altering land use and ownership (Fellin, 2013). In \nthis instance, a significant portion of Somalia's population has been displaced, both within and \n . CC-BY 4.0 International licenseIt is made available under a \n is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. (which was not certified by peer review)\nThe copyright holder for this preprint this version posted November 2, 2025. ; https://doi.org/10.1101/2025.10.30.25339180doi: medRxiv preprint \n\n3\noutside the country, due to violence, conflict, famine, severe food shortages, and the resulting \npoverty and instability (Robinson et al., 2014). For instance, Dadaab in Northeastern Kenya hosts \nthe world's largest refugee camp, containing the highest concentration of Somalis outside of \nMogadishu. Somalia has been characterized not only as experiencing one of the world's most \nsevere human rights and humanitarian crises but also as having one of the most critical \ndisplacement situations globally(Robinson et al., 2014). From an operational perspective, Somali \nrefers to ethnic pastoral communities residing in Somalia, Kenya, and Ethiopia, who share similar \ncultural practices, linguistic heritage, and religious beliefs (Alio, 2012). \nLITERATURE REVIEW. \nConflict, in its simplest form, occurs when individuals or groups struggle over limited supplies of \ntangible or intangible goods (Shale, 2011). Moreover, conflicts among communities are primarily \ndriven by the struggle for control and access to natural resources, especially water and grazing \nlands. Additional factors contributing to these conflicts include long-standing rivalries, deeply \ningrained cultural beliefs, land disputes, political instigation, youth unemployment, and the recent \nincrease in illegal weapons (Salad, 2015). \n Some researchers point out that the exploitation of natural resources and related environmental \npressures play a significant role in all stages of conflicts, from their inception and continuation to \nhindering peace efforts. They have observed that natural resources are linked to at least 40% of \ninternal conflicts over the past six decades. The repercussions of conflict on communities are \nextensive, causing severe and enduring damage to their social, economic, and political landscapes. \nWhen civilians become direct targets or unintended victims, the social fabric and coping \nmechanisms of a society are torn apart, making the return to normalcy a prolonged process that \ncan span years. This is particularly true when social institutions and ways of life are intentionally \ndestroyed(Salad, 2015). During times of strife, extended family and kinship networks offer crucial \nsupport. However, conflict also intensifies divisions between groups, escalates intra-group \ntensions and mistrust, disrupts economic relationships between different factions, and creates \nconditions conducive to disease spread. A stark example of this can be seen in Rwanda, where \neven after the violence subsided in mid-1994, deaths continued as refugees and internally displaced \npersons fell victim to diseases caused by insufficient food and clean water. As a result, the political, \n . CC-BY 4.0 International licenseIt is made available under a \n is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. (which was not certified by peer review)\nThe copyright holder for this preprint this version posted November 2, 2025. ; https://doi.org/10.1101/2025.10.30.25339180doi: medRxiv preprint \n\n4\neconomic, and social frameworks of conflict-affected communities undergo significant \ntransformations (Salad, 2015).\nThe Horn of Africa is characterized by persistent violent conflicts occurring at multiple levels: \nnational, regional, and local. These conflicts involve a diverse range of participants, including \ngovernments, nationalist organizations, religious factions, and community or identity groups, often \nwith substantial support from external sources(A. A. Mohamed, 2018). A notable feature of these \nconflicts is their tendency to quickly expand beyond national boundaries, taking on a sub-regional \ndimension. This cross-border nature is facilitated by the involvement of ethnic kin from \nneighboring countries within the Horn of Africa region (A. A. Mohamed, 2018). \nFor nearly 30 years, Somalia has experienced a lack of central government due to a combination \nof factors, including civil war, political instability, and clan-based armed conflicts. These issues \nstemmed from efforts to overthrow the dictatorial regime and subsequently led to a power vacuum \nand unrest, particularly in the southern region. Somalia's society is traditionally organized around \nclans, which have their methods for addressing inter-clan matters such as disputes, power \ndistribution, and criminal offenses committed by clan members. The conflict in Somalia stems \nfrom a variety of intricate factors, encompassing political, economic, cultural, and psychological \naspects. Throughout the different phases of the conflict, numerous internal and external parties \nhave exerted varying degrees of influence (Ahmedweli Mohamud, 2012). These methods include \nthe use of law enforcement and judicial systems, intermarriage, and other conflict-resolution \nmechanisms (Barrow, 2020). \nHistorically and since the 1800s, Somalia has experienced inter-clan disputes stemming from \ncompetition over essential resources like water, livestock, and pastures. Historically, Somali \nnomads have engaged in conflicts over camel ownership due to the animals' crucial role in \nsurviving Somalia's challenging environment (Abdirahman, 2016). In this setting, clan affiliation \nproved valuable, as amassing and maintaining a substantial camel herd required the backing of \none's clan members. During the initial phase of the civil war (1988-1992), militias were organized \nalong major clan divisions, resulting in the frequent exchange of control over major urban centers. \nAt that time, it was common for media outlets and Somali people to report that a specific clan had \nseized control of a particular city (Abdirahman, 2016).  A civil war occurs when organized factions \n . CC-BY 4.0 International licenseIt is made available under a \n is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. (which was not certified by peer review)\nThe copyright holder for this preprint this version posted November 2, 2025. ; https://doi.org/10.1101/2025.10.30.25339180doi: medRxiv preprint \n\n5\nwithin a single nation-state or republic engage in armed conflict, or less frequently when two \ncountries that were previously part of a unified nation-state fight each other (Abdikarim Mohaidin, \n2011). Furthermore, Somalia has emerged as the most notable case of state collapse in Sub-\nSaharan Africa over recent years (Jama et al., 2018).\nIn southern Somalia, violent clashes erupted among clan-based armed groups vying for dominance \nover important urban centers, ports, and residential areas. The primary casualties of this conflict \nwere vulnerable farming communities and minority groups residing along the coast, who found \nthemselves caught in the crossfire of the warring factions (Abdikarim Mohaidin, 2011). The \nSomali conflict encompasses all major Somali clans, including Hawiye, Darod, Isaq, Dir, \nRahanweyn, and nearly every minority group. Each clan either operates its faction or participates \nin a coalition of factions. Certain groups have exerted dominance over others, compelling the \nsubjugated to seek alternative means of survival in Somalia's lawless environment. This dynamic \nhas resulted in every clan becoming an active participant in the ongoing conflict (Farah et al., \n2002). \nUnderstanding the political structure of Somali society hinges on grasping the concept of kinship \nand its unique social contract. As long as Somalis rely on their kinship lineage for protection and \nsecurity, collective rather than individual perspectives will continue to shape responsibilities, \nobligations, rights, and liabilities. Consequently, clans will remain collectively accountable for the \nactions of their individual members, while the rights of women and children will persistently be \nviewed through the lens of preserving the strength of male-dominated clans (Gundel, 2009).\nThe Somali clan system is founded on a patrilineal kinship structure. Clan membership is \ndetermined by tracing one's ancestry through male lineage. The social agreement outlines the \nprinciples of unity within and among these patrilineal clans. An analytical breakdown of the \ntraditional Somali structures reveals three fundamental components: 1) The segmentary lineage \nsystem, which forms their traditional social organization; 2) The xeer, which comprises their \ncustomary laws; 3) Their traditional juridic-political framework, represented by traditional \nauthorities. Genealogical records establish an individual's clan affiliation based on their ancestral \norigins (Gundel, 2009).\n . CC-BY 4.0 International licenseIt is made available under a \n is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. (which was not certified by peer review)\nThe copyright holder for this preprint this version posted November 2, 2025. ; https://doi.org/10.1101/2025.10.30.25339180doi: medRxiv preprint \n\n6\nWorldwide, internal displacement stands as the predominant form of forced migration and serves \nas a crucial tactic in eliminationism politics. Migration experts typically employ a framework \ncentered on rational choice and utility maximization to examine patterns of migrant movement. \nSeminal models depict individuals assessing the expenses of departing against the potential \nbenefits of relocating to various destination nations (Blair, 2024). This decision-making process, \nwhich determines whether, when, and where to migrate, is subject to uncertainties and financial \nconstraints. The factors prompting individuals to leave their homes are categorized as \"push\" \nfactors, while those drawing them toward specific destinations are termed \"pull\" factors. Despite \nextensive testing of this migrant decision-making model in the context of international migration, \nthere remains a dearth of systematic analysis regarding internal displacement patterns(Blair, 2024). \nWith the seventh-largest internally displaced population globally, Somalia has been the focus of \none of the world's most enduring humanitarian aid efforts since the late 1980s (Drumtra, 2014) \nand in the meanwhile, prior to the collapse of the previous central government in 1991, Somalia \nwas already ranked among the world's most impoverished nations, with an unstable economy that \nrelied heavily on livestock trade(Mohamed & Samantar). In 2023, a record 2.9 million people were \nforced from their homes due to environmental disasters and conflict. Climate-related events \naccounted for 75 percent of displacements, affecting 2.3 million individuals (1.7 million from \nfloods and 531,000 from drought). Concurrently, conflict and insecurity led to the displacement or \nre-displacement of 653,000 people, marking an unprecedented high. Operational challenges \nimpact over 3.8 million people, with approximately 580,000 residing in areas that humanitarian \norganizations struggle to reach. Most of those in hard-to-access regions are women and \nchildren(UNOCHA, 2024) . Conversely, the clan conflicts and forced displacement have resulted \nin significant loss of life, disrupted the livelihoods of millions of internally displaced persons \n(IDPs) and their host communities, and caused extensive damage to infrastructure. Furthermore, \nmany IDPs report that the food aid provided by humanitarian organizations is inadequate to meet \ntheir needs (Sate & Konso Zone).\nFurthermore, as of late 2022, approximately four million individuals remained internally displaced \nwithin the nation. Both armed conflicts and climate-related issues have prompted population \nmovements, including exodus to refugee camps in adjacent countries, repatriation to Somalia from \nforeign lands, or internal displacement (Addow, 2024). This displacement often stems from \n . CC-BY 4.0 International licenseIt is made available under a \n is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. (which was not certified by peer review)\nThe copyright holder for this preprint this version posted November 2, 2025. ; https://doi.org/10.1101/2025.10.30.25339180doi: medRxiv preprint \n\n7\nextended periods of hostilities, strife, and climate-induced events that undermine livelihoods, \nexhausting all available resources and adaptive strategies. Nevertheless, mobility can also \nrepresent a more deliberate choice, shaped by multiple factors, as people pursue enhanced \nprospects for themselves and their families(Addow, 2024), conflict also hampers agricultural \nactivities, exacerbates food shortages, and triggers population displacement, including the \nformation of camps for internally displaced persons (IDPs) (Kinyoki et al., 2017).\nThe origins of displacement in modern-day Somalia can be traced to former colonial divisions, \nclan rivalries, and intense competition for economic and political power in the post-colonial era. \nSomalia's independence in 1960 was hindered by a lack of political credibility and a fragile \neconomic foundation (Mustafe Mahamoud, 2017). The government's seizure of economic assets, \nthe impact of a severe drought in 1974, and the military defeat in the 1978 Ogaden conflict led to \nwidespread disillusionment with the Barre administration. Serious armed resistance against Barre \nbegan in 1988 in northwestern Somalia, causing approximately 400,000 Somalis to seek refuge in \nEthiopia and Djibouti. Barre's ousting in 1991 plunged Somalia into an extended period of civil \nstrife. During the peak of the conflict in 1992, around 800,000 Somalis were refugees in adjacent \ncountries, while 2 million were displaced within Somalia's borders(Mustafe Mahamoud, 2017). \nThe displacement has become one of the most significant crises facing the world in modern \ntimes(Yigzaw & Abitew, 2019). Displacement resulting from conflict can significantly alter an \nindividual's connection to their community. This forced relocation extends beyond merely \nincreasing the physical distance between a person and their familiar surroundings (Aymerich & \nZeyneloglu, 2023). It compromises the displaced individual's capacity to contribute to community \ndecisions, fully participate in communal affairs, interact through established norms and values, \nand engage in shared experiences that collectively define one's Sense of Community (SOC). \nMoreover, the economic hardships associated with displacement, combined with the destruction \nof infrastructure due to conflict, further reduce the material resources individuals can dedicate to \nand invest in their community (Aymerich & Zeyneloglu, 2023).\nThe sense of community (SOC) experienced by members toward their original community may be \ndiminished due to damage and separation. However, the shared ordeal of conflict and forced \nrelocation could serve as a powerful bonding experience that strengthens SOC. Internally displaced \n . CC-BY 4.0 International licenseIt is made available under a \n is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. (which was not certified by peer review)\nThe copyright holder for this preprint this version posted November 2, 2025. ; https://doi.org/10.1101/2025.10.30.25339180doi: medRxiv preprint \n\n8\npersons (IDP) often experience nostalgic feelings for their original community, stemming from the \nidentity disruption caused by forced displacement (Aymerich & Zeyneloglu, 2023). Struggling to \nadapt to unfamiliar surroundings, IDPs tend to reinforce their collective community norms and \ntraditions. The yearning for familiar community practices may act as a driving force, leading to \nincreased levels of SOC. This dual dynamic, where displacement both supports and undermines \ncommunity members' attachment to their original community, raises significant questions about \nthe SOC levels experienced by forcibly displaced individuals in unstable environments (Aymerich \n& Zeyneloglu, 2023).\nExamination of data on daily population movement and incidents of violence reveals that structural \nelements, particularly shifts in the geographic range and power dynamics of conflicts, are the \nprimary factors influencing increases or decreases in displacement. These impacts are a result of \nthe proportion of people affected by the conflict, disruptions to security, and widespread fear. The \nstudy makes two key contributions (Schon, 2015). Firstly, it highlights the intricate nature of the \nrelationship between violence and displacement. Secondly, it underscores the significance of \nconsidering the structural aspects of conflicts, even as advancements in data collection and \nmethodology have enabled researchers to focus on more granular details of these conflicts(Schon, \n2015). \nExamining the impact of clan-driven displacement on livelihoods, there are worries about how \nlong-term conflict and forced relocation diminish household resources. This has constrained the \nability of impoverished Somalis to support vulnerable children, as entire families often share the \nfood rations intended for child patients (Le Sage & Majid, 2002). Other contributing factors \ninclude inadequate water and sanitation facilities, as well as poor nutritional quality even when \nfood is available. Moreover, some households experience extremely slow recovery, with many \nbecoming destitute. Ongoing political and economic exclusion may prevent certain social groups, \nincluding minorities and small sub-clans, from accessing markets (Le Sage & Majid, 2002).\n . CC-BY 4.0 International licenseIt is made available under a \n is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. (which was not certified by peer review)\nThe copyright holder for this preprint this version posted November 2, 2025. ; https://doi.org/10.1101/2025.10.30.25339180doi: medRxiv preprint \n\n9\nAccording to Collins (2004), the term clan is conceptualized as \"an informal organization \nconsisting of individuals related or linked by kin-based bonds.\" The core of a clan is comprised of \nemotional kinship connections, which form the foundation of its organizational identity and \nrelationships. These connections extend both vertically and horizontally, connecting leaders with \nfollowers, and encompass both genuine blood relations and symbolic kinship. The etymology of \nthe word clan can be traced back to \"clan\" in Irish and Scottish Gaelic languages, which translates \nto family (Hussein, 2022). In contrast, conflict is conceptualized here as the dynamic between \ninterdependent individuals who perceive their aims as clashing and view each other as obstacles \nin the pursuit of these objectives(Jibril, 2013). It's also worth mentioning that clan conflict is a type \nof conflict that occurs within a clan (A. Mohamed, 2018) while a person who is compelled to leave \ntheir residence but remains within the boundaries of their nation is known as an Internally \nDisplaced Person (IDP)(Muna Mohamed, 2020).\nThe study is grounded in Karl Marx's conflict theory, which posits that society exists in a constant \nstate of discord due to the struggle for scarce resources. This theory suggests that social order is \nmaintained through dominance and power, rather than agreement and compliance (Adan & \nOrodho, 2013). Conflict theory argues that individuals in positions of wealth and influence strive \nto maintain their status by any means necessary, primarily through the oppression of those without \npower. Furthermore, the theory contends that major historical advancements, such as the \nestablishment of democratic systems and civil liberties, stem from capitalist efforts to control the \npopulace, rather than from a genuine desire for societal harmony (Adan & Orodho, 2013).\nThis conflict theory has been applied to elucidate various social issues, such as warfare, uprisings, \neconomic disparities, resolve, and family abuse. Societies are composed of groups that necessitate \nrules. Groups can be chaotic entities. In the absence of guidelines, individuals tend to deviate, \neither unintentionally or purposefully. A social mechanism is essential to function as a herding \ndog, steering people back to the collective (Adan & Orodho, 2013). \nThe research also referenced Henri Tajfel's social identity theory from the 1970s, which uses the \nconcept of social identity to explain prejudice, discrimination, and conflict between groups. \nAccording to this theory, individuals first develop preferences for certain groups, then align \nthemselves with these favored groups (known as \"in groups\"), and finally compare themselves to \n . CC-BY 4.0 International licenseIt is made available under a \n is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. (which was not certified by peer review)\nThe copyright holder for this preprint this version posted November 2, 2025. ; https://doi.org/10.1101/2025.10.30.25339180doi: medRxiv preprint \n\n10\nother groups perceived as \"out groups.\" This process is essential as social groups aim to \ndifferentiate themselves from one another. Members of clans typically prefer to identify with their \nbirth clan and resist being recognized as part of other clans, even when living in the same village, \ndue to concerns about losing their clan identity. People often describe the external category using \nfalsehoods, exaggerated labels, and negative attributes, while associating their own group with \npositive characteristics (Sahal, 2016). \nThus, despite extensive research on conflict dynamics and displacement in Somalia, significant \nknowledge gaps persist regarding the complex interrelationship between clan-based conflicts and \ndisplacement trends. Current scholarly literature predominantly focuses on the historical and \nstructural elements of clan rivalries, competition for resources, and the sociopolitical ramifications \nof displacement. However, a comprehensive analysis of how these elements interact to focus on \nrelationship of these variables (clan conflict and displacement) is lacking. Furthermore, while \nsome studies emphasize the role of scarce natural resources and political instigation in precipitating \nconflicts, these investigations fail to provide a thorough examination of the correlation between \nclan-related conflicts and the magnitude of displacement.   \nConsequently, this gap emphasizes the necessity for a more comprehensive and context-specific \napproach to elucidate the complex relationship between clan conflict and the scale of displacement, \nwhich constitutes the primary focus of this study.  \nRESEARCH OBJECTIVES.\nThe study examined four specific research objectives:\n1. To identify specific regional variations in clan conflict-driven displacement in affected regions \nin Somalia. \n2. To analyze the correlation between the frequency of clan conflicts and the scale of \ndisplacements across selected regions in Somalia. \n3. To examine the extent to which clan conflict is a predictor of displacement. \n4. To provide recommendations to mitigate clan conflict-driven displacement in Somalia.\n . CC-BY 4.0 International licenseIt is made available under a \n is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. (which was not certified by peer review)\nThe copyright holder for this preprint this version posted November 2, 2025. ; https://doi.org/10.1101/2025.10.30.25339180doi: medRxiv preprint \n\n11\nMETHODS AND MATERIALS (RESEARCH METHODOLOGY). \nThis study utilized retrospective data. The Displacement Tracking Matrix (DTM) data in Somalia, \nproduced by the International Organization for Migration (IOM), was employed; specifically, the \nstudy utilized data collected between April and October 2024 from 11 regions of Somalia (Bakool, \nBanadir, Bay, Galgaduud, Gedo, Hiraan, Lower Juba, Lower Shabelle, Middle Shabelle, Mudug \nand Nugaal). \nThe dataset was in Excel format and contained information on the study variables (clan conflict \nand displacement). The researchers conducted comprehensive data cleaning prior to data analysis, \nwhich involved checking for missing values, duplicates, completeness, relevance, and redundancy. \nAfter cleaning, the dataset contained 2,008 records of clan conflicts and 38,690 cases of \ndisplacement. There were no missing values, duplicates, or redundancies. Consequently, the \ndataset was deemed suitable for statistical analysis.   \nData analysis was conducted utilizing statistical software packages for social science (SPSS) and \nan Excel spreadsheet to generate percentages, charts, tables, and statistical conclusions addressing \nthe study objectives. The study employed descriptive and inferential statistics, including mean \npercentages, linear regression, and bivariate correlation analysis. The findings are presented in a \nsystematic sequence of tables, numerical data, figures, and statistical inferences that address the \nstudy's goals and objectives, as well as discussions, recommendations, and potential applications. \nANALYSIS AND RESULTS OF THE STUDY. \nRegional variations in clan conflict-driven displacement in affected regions in Somalia.\nThis research objective aims to provide the patterns and dynamics of clan conflict-driven \ndisplacement across different selected regions in Somalia. This analysis (Figure 1) will provide \ndisplacement across regions and how they vary regionally as well as specific insights for \ndeveloping localized interventions and policy measures. \nFigure 1: Regional variations in clan conflict-driven displacement.\n . CC-BY 4.0 International licenseIt is made available under a \n is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. (which was not certified by peer review)\nThe copyright holder for this preprint this version posted November 2, 2025. ; https://doi.org/10.1101/2025.10.30.25339180doi: medRxiv preprint \n\n12\nThe chart above illustrates the relationship between clan-based conflicts and population \ndisplacement across different regions in Somalia, showcasing notable variations. Gedo stands out \nas the most severely impacted area, experiencing an extraordinarily high level of clan-related strife \nat 18,387 incidents, resulting in the displacement of roughly 10,000 people. This striking \ndifference underscores the strong link between escalated clan tensions and subsequent population \ndisplacement within this particular region. \nSimilarly, Banadir and Bay report significant clan-related conflicts, with 10,517 and 11,114 \nincidents respectively. However, their displacement figures are considerably lower than those in \nGedo. This suggests that while clan conflicts are widespread, they don't always result in \nproportionate displacement, possibly due to variations in local conditions or community resilience. \nIn contrast, areas such as Hiraan, Lower Juba, and Middle Shabelle experience far fewer clan \nconflicts and displacements. Hiraan, for instance, records only 265 conflict incidents and minimal \n100 784 147 60 371\n36 4 325\n9 164 8\n1,954 10,517 1,114 1,204 18,337\n265 26 1,877\n223 3,095 78\nBakool Banadir Bay Galgaduud Gedo Hiraan Lower \nJuba\nLower \nShabelle\nMiddle \nShabelle\nMudug Nugaal\nClan conflict Displacement\n . CC-BY 4.0 International licenseIt is made available under a \n is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. (which was not certified by peer review)\nThe copyright holder for this preprint this version posted November 2, 2025. ; https://doi.org/10.1101/2025.10.30.25339180doi: medRxiv preprint \n\n13\ncorresponding displacement. This indicates that these regions enjoy relative stability compared to \nmore severely impacted areas. \nIn conclusion, the chart illustrates that while clan conflict frequently correlates with displacement, \nthe magnitude and consequences vary considerably across regions. This nuanced comprehension \nis essential for tailoring interventions and support efforts in the most affected areas.\nCorrelation between the frequency of clan conflicts and the scale of displacements across \nselected regions in Somalia.\nThis research objective analyzes the connection between clan conflict frequency and displacement \nmagnitude in specific Somali regions. By examining this association, the research intends to \nmeasure how changes in clan conflict intensity affect displacement trends. Gaining insight into \nthis relationship will show how clan conflicts influence displacement dynamics, enabling more \nfocused interventions in areas impacted by conflict.  \nTable 1: Correlation between the frequency of clan conflicts and the scale of displacements.\nCorrelations\n Clan conflict Displacement\nPearson Correlation 1 .705*\nSig. (2-tailed) .015\n Clan conflict\nN 11 11\nPearson Correlation .705* 1\nSig. (2-tailed) .015\nDisplacement\nN 11 11\n*. Correlation is significant at the 0.05 level (2-tailed).\nThe researchers used Correlation Coefficient analysis to assess the relationship between the \nfrequency of clan conflicts and the scale of displacements. The table above presents the results of \na correlation analysis. The Correlation Coefficient of 0.705 indicates a strong positive correlation \nbetween clan conflict and displacement, suggesting that as one variable increases, the other tends \nto increase as well. Furthermore, the P-value is less than the conventional alpha level of 0.05, \nindicating that the correlation is statistically significant. This finding allows for the confident \nassertion that the observed relationship is unlikely to be attributable to random chance.  \n . CC-BY 4.0 International licenseIt is made available under a \n is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. (which was not certified by peer review)\nThe copyright holder for this preprint this version posted November 2, 2025. ; https://doi.org/10.1101/2025.10.30.25339180doi: medRxiv preprint \n\n14\nIn conclusion, there is a significant positive correlation between clan conflict and displacement, \nindicating that higher levels of clan conflict are associated with increased levels of displacement.\nExamining the extent to which clan conflict is a predictor of displacement.\nThe above research objective aims to assess how well clan-based conflicts can predict population \ndisplacement in Somalia, utilizing Linear Regression Analysis. The research aims to assess and \nquantify the impact and relevance of clan conflict as a predictor factor in displacement by \nanalyzing the relationship between these two variables under the below tables. \nTable 2: Model summary of linear regression analysis.  \nThe model summary provides insights into the relationship between clan conflict and \ndisplacement. The correlation coefficient (R) is 0.705, indicating a strong positive relationship; as \nclan conflict increases, displacement also tends to increase. The R Square value is 0.497, signifying \nthat approximately 49.7% of the variance in displacement can be explained by clan conflict. This \nindicates that while clan conflict is a significant predictor of displacement, other factors likely \ncontribute to the variations in displacement that are not captured by this model. In summary, the \ndata indicates a significant relationship between clan conflict and displacement.  \n . CC-BY 4.0 International licenseIt is made available under a \n is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. (which was not certified by peer review)\nThe copyright holder for this preprint this version posted November 2, 2025. ; https://doi.org/10.1101/2025.10.30.25339180doi: medRxiv preprint \n\n15\nTable 3: ANOVA of linear regression analysis.  \nThe ANOVA table above provides insights into the overall significance of the regression model \nused to predict displacement based on clan conflict. The ANOVA results indicate that the \nregression model significantly explains the variance in displacement related to clan conflict. The \nF-statistic of 8.891 and the p-value of 0.015 suggest that the model is statistically significant, \nreinforcing the conclusion that clan conflict has a meaningful effect on displacement. \nTable 4: Coefficients of linear regression analysis.  \nThe coefficients table above provides detailed information about the relationship between clan \nconflict and displacement, with \"Displacement\" as the dependent variable. The Standardized \nCoefficients (Beta) value for clan conflict is 0.705, indicating that clan conflict has a strong effect \non the scale of displacement. Moreover, the significance value for clan conflict is 0.015. This p-\nvalue indicates that the relationship between clan conflict and displacement is statistically \nsignificant (typically, a p-value less than 0.05 is considered significant). This suggests that clan \nconflict is a meaningful predictor of displacement. \n . CC-BY 4.0 International licenseIt is made available under a \n is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. (which was not certified by peer review)\nThe copyright holder for this preprint this version posted November 2, 2025. ; https://doi.org/10.1101/2025.10.30.25339180doi: medRxiv preprint \n\n16\nIn summary, the coefficients table indicates a statistically significant and positive relationship \nbetween clan conflict and displacement. For each unit increase in clan conflict, displacement is \nexpected to increase by about 17.204 units (unstandardized coefficient). The results suggest that \naddressing clan conflict could be crucial in managing and mitigating displacement issues.  \nDISCUSSION.\nThis study provides compelling evidence for the significant association between clan-based \nconflicts and population displacement in Somalia. The study's findings, encompassing geographic \nvariations, robust correlations, and predictive models, collectively elucidate the critical influence \nof conflict dynamics on displacement patterns. To mitigate the humanitarian and societal \nramifications of displacement, it is imperative to address the root causes of these conflicts through \ntargeted, conflict-sensitive, and governance-oriented interventions. By leveraging these findings, \npolicymakers and stakeholders can develop more effective strategies to address the complex issues \nsurrounding clan conflict and displacement in Somalia. This is in line with the research elucidates \nsubstantial regional disparities in displacement across selected regions in Somalia.\n The Gedo region was identified as the most severely affected, experiencing 18,387 clan-related \nconflicts that resulted in approximately 10,000 displacements. These regional variations \nunderscore the need for tailored interventions addressing area-specific issues while enhancing \nresilience in the most impacted communities. The study findings on the scale of displacement \ndemonstrates a substantial figure due to clan conflict, amounting to 38,690 over seven months. \nThis aligns with data from the Somali humanitarian needs and response plan, which indicates that \nover 6 million Somalis are affected by the crisis and require urgent humanitarian assistance to \nprevent loss of life (UNOCHA, 2024),  The magnitude of displacement observed in this research \naligns with another study, \"Environment-induced internal displacement: The case of Somalia,\" \nwhich indicates that internally displaced persons (IDPs) constitute 56% of all forced migration. \nSignificantly, this displacement persists for an average of 20 years for refugees and over 10 years \nfor most IDPs. Moreover, the UNHCR (2020) global trends report on forced displacement revealed \nthat nearly 80% of refugees and IDPs reside in developing nations. Somalia, consistently ranking \namong the top 10 countries of origin for cross-border displacement over the past decade, placed \n . CC-BY 4.0 International licenseIt is made available under a \n is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. (which was not certified by peer review)\nThe copyright holder for this preprint this version posted November 2, 2025. ; https://doi.org/10.1101/2025.10.30.25339180doi: medRxiv preprint \n\n17\nfifth globally in terms of forcibly displaced populations, with approximately 2.6 million IDPs \n(Momeni et al., 2022). \nThe robust positive correlation between clan conflicts and displacement (r = 0.705, p = 0.015) \nsuggests that regions experiencing higher frequencies of conflicts tend to exhibit elevated levels \nof population displacement. This research somehow aligns with another study examining \"scarce \nresources and inter-clan conflict in selected districts in Madera County, Northeastern Kenya.\" The \nfindings from that study revealed a strong correlation between resource scarcity and inter-clan \nconflicts. Specifically, the linear correlation coefficient analysis demonstrated a significant \nrelationship between land scarcity and inter-clan conflict (r=0.803, Sig 0.000). Similarly, water \nscarcity exhibited a strong connection to all aspects of inter-clan conflict (r=O.860, SlG=O.000). \nComparable results were observed for pasture scarcity (r=0.774, SIG =0.000), indicating its \nsubstantial impact on inter-clan tensions(Shale, 2011). \nThe predictive strength of clan conflict on displacement is further substantiated by linear \nregression analysis. The model demonstrates that clan conflict intensity accounts for \napproximately half (49.7%) of the variability in displacement, as indicated by an R² value of 0.497. \nThe regression model's statistical significance (F = 8.891, p = 0.015) underscores the critical \nimportance of addressing clan conflict as part of comprehensive strategies aimed at mitigating \ndisplacement.  The findings align with the research titled \"Scarce Resources and Inter-clan Conflict \nin Selected Districts in Madera County, Northeastern Kenya.\" The results of regression analysis \nindicated that the model's independent variables exhibited a statistically significant impact on \nvariations in the dependent variable (inter-clan conflict) (F=1019.69, sig. =0.000). This led \nresearchers to conclude that resource scarcity constituted a significant factor in elucidating the \nhigh incidence of inter-clan conflicts within Madera County (Shale, 2011). \nRECOMMENDATIONS. \nGiven the findings and analysis demonstrated above, the study suggests the following \nrecommendations:  \n1. To mitigate the magnitude of displacement resulting from clan conflicts, the researchers \nstrongly advocate for the implementation of community-based resilience strategies, \nparticularly in regions characterized by high conflict and displacement levels. This can be \n . CC-BY 4.0 International licenseIt is made available under a \n is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. (which was not certified by peer review)\nThe copyright holder for this preprint this version posted November 2, 2025. ; https://doi.org/10.1101/2025.10.30.25339180doi: medRxiv preprint \n\n18\nachieved through the enhancement of social cohesion, local dispute resolution mechanisms, \nand economic opportunities. Such measures will contribute to reducing the community's \nvulnerability to displacement. \n2. The study recommends government and humanitarian actors to establish and implement early \nwarning systems to monitor and predict clan conflicts in high-risk regions, thereby facilitating \ntimely interventions to mitigate large-scale displacement. \n3. The researchers suggests that data-driven policy making can be enhanced through the \nutilization of statistical findings, such as the identified strong positive correlation between clan \nconflicts and displacement. These insights can be applied to inform policy decisions and \ndevelop interventions aimed at mitigating the effects of clan conflicts in Somalia. \n4. The research recommends that the implementation of programs offering sustainable income-\ngenerating opportunities for displaced populations is advisable, particularly in regions such as \nGedo where displacement significantly impacts economic stability. These initiatives may \nencompass skills development and access to microfinance services, with the objective of \nsupporting viable livelihoods.\n5. The research further suggests the necessity of fostering collaborations among governmental \nentities, community organizations, international institutions, and non-governmental \norganizations to establish a coordinated approach for addressing clan-based conflicts and \npopulation displacement. This strategy aims to optimize the utilization of available resources \nand expertise.\n6. Implement conflict-aware strategies by focusing on areas such as Gedo, Banadir, and Bay, \nwhere clan disputes and population displacement are most prevalent. Provide customized \nassistance that addresses the unique challenges and susceptibilities faced by these \ncommunities.\nCONCLUSION. \nThe study into clan conflict dynamics and their role in driving displacement has yielded significant \ninsights regarding the relationship between clan conflict and the magnitude of displacement, as \nwell as elucidated the regional variation of displacement. \n . CC-BY 4.0 International licenseIt is made available under a \n is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. (which was not certified by peer review)\nThe copyright holder for this preprint this version posted November 2, 2025. ; https://doi.org/10.1101/2025.10.30.25339180doi: medRxiv preprint \n\n19\nThe findings indicate that Gedo experiences the highest incidence of clan conflicts and resulting \npopulation displacements, making it the most severely affected region. In contrast, areas like \nHiraan and Middle Shabelle are less impacted by warfare and have witnessed minimal population \nmovement. The correlation analysis has verified that increased clan disputes significantly \ncontribute to population displacement, as evidenced by a statistically significant positive \nrelationship between the number of clan conflicts and the magnitude of displacement (r = 0.705, p \n< 0.05). The research underscores the importance of implementing region-specific interventions \nand strategies to mitigate the impact of these conflicts. \nFinally, addressing this issue requires a comprehensive approach that incorporates conflict \nprevention, community awareness, enhancement of community resilience, and provision of \nlivelihood support, particularly in the most affected regions. To develop and implement sustainable \nsolutions that promote stability and mitigate displacement resulting from clan conflicts in Somalia, \npolicymakers and stakeholders must utilize evidence-based insights. \nData availability statement.\nThe data underpinning the findings of this study are sourced from third-party data provided by the \nInternational Organization for Migration (IOM). The minimal dataset utilized to derive the \nconclusions presented in this manuscript is obtained from the Displacement Tracking Matrix \n(DTM) data in Somalia, covering the period from April to October 2024. These data are publicly \naccessible at Displacement.iom.int: https://displacement.iom.int/somalia/ or Global DTM: \nhttps://dtm.iom.int/somalia.  \nFunding.\nThe authors received no specific funding for this work.\nCompeting interests.\nThe authors have declared that no competing interests exist.\n . CC-BY 4.0 International licenseIt is made available under a \n is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. (which was not certified by peer review)\nThe copyright holder for this preprint this version posted November 2, 2025. ; https://doi.org/10.1101/2025.10.30.25339180doi: medRxiv preprint \n\n20\nREFERENCES. \nAbdikarim Mohaidin, A. (2011). Civil war and poverty enhancement of selected internal displaced \npeople (idp) camps in Mogadishu Somalia. \nAbdirahman, M. I. (2016). Ethnic conflict and socio-economic development of selected house \nholders in Mismayo District of Somalia. \nAdan, M. A., & Orodho, J. A. (2013). 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