{"paper_id":"262a9547-210d-4a5e-b65b-b1ec4a29f539","body_text":"Physically-based transposition of a mesoscale convective system | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Physically-based transposition of a mesoscale convective system Mathieu Mure-Ravaud, M. Levent Kavvas This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-6507026/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 16 Feb, 2026 Read the published version in Climate Dynamics → Version 1 posted 5 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Storm transposition is a cornerstone of probable maximum precipitation (PMP) estimation. Yet, according to a recent report by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, \"a solid scientific foundation for storm transposition is not available\". In this article, a new approach to storm transposition is presented and applied to a mesoscale convective system. Steering of the storm toward the target basin is achieved by leveraging internal variability—that is, the intrinsic spread in the outcomes of a numerical weather prediction model, arising from the nonlinear nature of the atmospheric system and its sensitivity to initial and boundary conditions. Basin-average precipitation depth is subsequently maximized through initial and boundary condition shifting. Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) Storm Transposition Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) Full Text Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 16 Feb, 2026 Read the published version in Climate Dynamics → Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Major Revision 30 Jul, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 10 Jun, 2025 Reviewers invited by journal 22 May, 2025 Editor assigned by journal 20 May, 2025 First submitted to journal 19 May, 2025 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {\"props\":{\"pageProps\":{\"initialData\":{\"identity\":\"rs-6507026\",\"acceptedTermsAndConditions\":true,\"allowDirectSubmit\":false,\"archivedVersions\":[],\"articleType\":\"Research Article\",\"associatedPublications\":[],\"authors\":[{\"id\":460526817,\"identity\":\"cbdb7ad0-b318-416c-b190-ad44ffb1614e\",\"order_by\":0,\"name\":\"Mathieu Mure-Ravaud\",\"email\":\"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA5ElEQVRIiWNgGAWjYJADwwcMDMxgxMDARpwWYwOStZhJQNXj16I77YzZh4977BL7ZyRvq+apsZY3OM7+gOFD2WHcJt/OMZ4541ly4owbaWW3eY6lG244zGPAOOMcfi3MPAeYjRlu5Jjd5m04zDizmYeBmbeNgJY/B+qN5YFaioFa7Gc2sz9g/ktIC8OBw3IGQC3MQC2J/cwMBsyMeLWkFTP2HDguZ3jmWbHknGPpyf3MPAYHe86l49GSvJnhx4FqHrnjyRs/vKmxtm3jP/7wwY8ya5xasIMDJKofBaNgFIyCUYAGAFzpU9+k8y+JAAAAAElFTkSuQmCC\",\"orcid\":\"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3612-0373\",\"institution\":\"UC Davis: University of California Davis\",\"correspondingAuthor\":true,\"prefix\":\"\",\"firstName\":\"Mathieu\",\"middleName\":\"\",\"lastName\":\"Mure-Ravaud\",\"suffix\":\"\"},{\"id\":460526818,\"identity\":\"5c2f20e0-113f-4179-b17d-015bae41c65a\",\"order_by\":1,\"name\":\"M. Levent Kavvas\",\"email\":\"\",\"orcid\":\"\",\"institution\":\"UC Davis: University of California Davis\",\"correspondingAuthor\":false,\"prefix\":\"\",\"firstName\":\"M.\",\"middleName\":\"Levent\",\"lastName\":\"Kavvas\",\"suffix\":\"\"}],\"badges\":[],\"createdAt\":\"2025-04-22 19:51:12\",\"currentVersionCode\":1,\"declarations\":\"\",\"doi\":\"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6507026/v1\",\"doiUrl\":\"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6507026/v1\",\"draftVersion\":[],\"editorialEvents\":[{\"content\":\"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-025-07912-4\",\"type\":\"published\",\"date\":\"2026-02-16T15:57:11+00:00\"}],\"editorialNote\":\"\",\"failedWorkflow\":false,\"files\":[{\"id\":103251048,\"identity\":\"e52e6827-5a23-4cde-9204-59a5c36fb1cc\",\"added_by\":\"auto\",\"created_at\":\"2026-02-23 16:02:42\",\"extension\":\"pdf\",\"order_by\":1,\"title\":\"\",\"display\":\"\",\"copyAsset\":false,\"role\":\"manuscript-pdf\",\"size\":10741340,\"visible\":true,\"origin\":\"\",\"legend\":\"\",\"description\":\"\",\"filename\":\"article.pdf\",\"url\":\"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6507026/v1_covered_a124b111-4d46-4804-9fe9-dcf20cdfb2b4.pdf\"}],\"financialInterests\":\"\",\"formattedTitle\":\"Physically-based transposition of a mesoscale convective system\",\"fulltext\":[],\"fulltextSource\":\"\",\"fullText\":\"\",\"funders\":[],\"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow\":false,\"hasManuscriptDocX\":false,\"hasOptedInToPreprint\":true,\"hasPassedJournalQc\":\"\",\"hasAnyPriority\":false,\"hideJournal\":false,\"highlight\":\"\",\"institution\":\"\",\"isAcceptedByJournal\":true,\"isAuthorSuppliedPdf\":true,\"isDeskRejected\":\"\",\"isHiddenFromSearch\":false,\"isInQc\":false,\"isInWorkflow\":true,\"isPdf\":true,\"isPdfUpToDate\":true,\"isWithdrawnOrRetracted\":false,\"journal\":{\"display\":true,\"email\":\"info@researchsquare.com\",\"identity\":\"climate-dynamics\",\"isNatureJournal\":false,\"hasQc\":true,\"allowDirectSubmit\":false,\"externalIdentity\":\"cldy\",\"sideBox\":\"Learn more about [Climate Dynamics](https://www.springer.com/journal/382)\",\"snPcode\":\"382\",\"submissionUrl\":\"https://submission.nature.com/new-submission/382/3\",\"title\":\"Climate Dynamics\",\"twitterHandle\":\"\",\"acdcEnabled\":true,\"dfaEnabled\":true,\"editorialSystem\":\"em\",\"reportingPortfolio\":\"Springer Hybrid\",\"inReviewEnabled\":true,\"inReviewRevisionsEnabled\":false},\"keywords\":\"Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP), Storm Transposition, Mesoscale Convective System (MCS), Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF)\",\"lastPublishedDoi\":\"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6507026/v1\",\"lastPublishedDoiUrl\":\"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6507026/v1\",\"license\":{\"name\":\"CC BY 4.0\",\"url\":\"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/\"},\"manuscriptAbstract\":\"Storm transposition is a cornerstone of probable maximum precipitation (PMP) estimation. Yet, according to a recent report by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, \\\"a solid scientific foundation for storm transposition is not available\\\". In this article, a new approach to storm transposition is presented and applied to a mesoscale convective system. Steering of the storm toward the target basin is achieved by leveraging internal variability—that is, the intrinsic spread in the outcomes of a numerical weather prediction model, arising from the nonlinear nature of the atmospheric system and its sensitivity to initial and boundary conditions. Basin-average precipitation depth is subsequently maximized through initial and boundary condition shifting.\",\"manuscriptTitle\":\"Physically-based transposition of a mesoscale convective system\",\"msid\":\"\",\"msnumber\":\"\",\"nonDraftVersions\":[{\"code\":1,\"date\":\"2025-06-19 04:49:53\",\"doi\":\"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6507026/v1\",\"editorialEvents\":[{\"type\":\"communityComments\",\"content\":0},{\"type\":\"decision\",\"content\":\"Major Revision\",\"date\":\"2025-07-30T07:04:06+00:00\",\"index\":\"\",\"fulltext\":\"\"},{\"type\":\"reviewerAgreed\",\"content\":\"\",\"date\":\"2025-06-10T13:03:16+00:00\",\"index\":0,\"fulltext\":\"\"},{\"type\":\"reviewersInvited\",\"content\":\"\",\"date\":\"2025-05-22T15:09:56+00:00\",\"index\":\"\",\"fulltext\":\"\"},{\"type\":\"editorAssigned\",\"content\":\"\",\"date\":\"2025-05-20T07:50:06+00:00\",\"index\":\"\",\"fulltext\":\"\"},{\"type\":\"submitted\",\"content\":\"Climate Dynamics\",\"date\":\"2025-05-20T01:01:32+00:00\",\"index\":\"\",\"fulltext\":\"\"}],\"status\":\"published\",\"journal\":{\"display\":true,\"email\":\"info@researchsquare.com\",\"identity\":\"climate-dynamics\",\"isNatureJournal\":false,\"hasQc\":true,\"allowDirectSubmit\":false,\"externalIdentity\":\"cldy\",\"sideBox\":\"Learn more about [Climate Dynamics](https://www.springer.com/journal/382)\",\"snPcode\":\"382\",\"submissionUrl\":\"https://submission.nature.com/new-submission/382/3\",\"title\":\"Climate Dynamics\",\"twitterHandle\":\"\",\"acdcEnabled\":true,\"dfaEnabled\":true,\"editorialSystem\":\"em\",\"reportingPortfolio\":\"Springer Hybrid\",\"inReviewEnabled\":true,\"inReviewRevisionsEnabled\":false}}],\"origin\":\"\",\"ownerIdentity\":\"542176dd-6d59-44e6-9943-3c8456207a5d\",\"owner\":[],\"postedDate\":\"June 19th, 2025\",\"published\":true,\"recentEditorialEvents\":[],\"rejectedJournal\":[],\"revision\":\"\",\"amendment\":\"\",\"status\":\"published-in-journal\",\"subjectAreas\":[],\"tags\":[],\"updatedAt\":\"2026-02-23T16:00:46+00:00\",\"versionOfRecord\":{\"articleIdentity\":\"rs-6507026\",\"link\":\"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-025-07912-4\",\"journal\":{\"identity\":\"climate-dynamics\",\"isVorOnly\":false,\"title\":\"Climate Dynamics\"},\"publishedOn\":\"2026-02-16 15:57:11\",\"publishedOnDateReadable\":\"February 16th, 2026\"},\"versionCreatedAt\":\"2025-06-19 04:49:53\",\"video\":\"\",\"vorDoi\":\"10.1007/s00382-025-07912-4\",\"vorDoiUrl\":\"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-025-07912-4\",\"workflowStages\":[]},\"version\":\"v1\",\"identity\":\"rs-6507026\",\"journalConfig\":\"researchsquare\"},\"__N_SSP\":true},\"page\":\"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]\",\"query\":{\"redirect\":\"/article/rs-6507026\",\"identity\":\"rs-6507026\",\"version\":[\"v1\"]},\"buildId\":\"XKTyCvWXoU3ODBz1xrDgd\",\"isFallback\":false,\"isExperimentalCompile\":false,\"dynamicIds\":[84888],\"gssp\":true,\"scriptLoader\":[]}","source_license":"CC-BY-4.0","license_restricted":false}