{"paper_id":"24338d6e-d7a0-45b9-9fa0-73f73775e6b7","body_text":"Contemporary Anopheles vector species distribution in Scotland and its association with historical hotspots of malaria transmission | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Contemporary Anopheles vector species distribution in Scotland and its association with historical hotspots of malaria transmission Kieran Killen, Georgia Kirby, Rebecca Brown, Susanne Krabbendam, and 2 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8925190/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted 7 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Background Malaria poses a significant threat to public health in tropical regions, with nearly half of the global population at risk. Historically, transmission was common in temperate regions including northwestern Europe, with records indicating that malaria was prevalent in Scotland until the early 19th century. While current environmental and epidemiological conditions are unsuitable for transmission, the risk of re-establishment of malaria or other mosquito-borne diseases in Scotland may increase with climate change. As a first step to assess the potential for future transmission risk, we aimed to map the distribution of two native Anopheles mosquito species in Scotland that have been implicated in historical malaria transmission and assess the relationship between areas of high contemporary suitability and historical hotspots of transmission. Methods Using data generated from a recent Scotland-wide mosquito surveillance programme and citizen science reporting (2023–2024), we used species distribution models to predict the current distribution of Anopheles claviger and An. plumbeus in Scotland and identify their associations with environmental and land-use variables. Another historical vector, An. maculipennis s.l., was also recorded but with too few observations for reliable modelling. Using georeferenced historical parish hotspots of malaria in Scotland (18th century records), we tested whether predicted contemporary suitability at hotspot locations was higher than expected by chance using comparisons against randomly sampled background locations. Results Several climatic and physical environmental variables were associated with Anopheles species distribution in Scotland, with altitude and landcover being the most consistent, and temperature and precipitation having variable impact across species. Anopheles were predicted to have widespread distribution across coastal and lowland Scotland, with pockets of habitat suitability extending up to the northeast coast and Shetland islands. Historical hotspots of malaria (parish locations) were consistently associated with higher predicted current suitability for Anopheles species than background locations. Conclusions Overall, these findings show that potential malaria vectors are still common throughout Scotland and highlight the need for continued monitoring to generate more accurate estimates of predictors, distribution and future disease risk. Historical malaria Ague mosquitoes species distribution models Anopheles plumbeus Anopheles maculipennis Anopheles claviger vector surveillance Scotland Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted Reviewers agreed at journal 23 Apr, 2026 Reviews received at journal 18 Apr, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 12 Mar, 2026 Reviewers invited by journal 01 Mar, 2026 Editor assigned by journal 21 Feb, 2026 Submission checks completed at journal 21 Feb, 2026 First submitted to journal 20 Feb, 2026 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {\"props\":{\"pageProps\":{\"initialData\":{\"identity\":\"rs-8925190\",\"acceptedTermsAndConditions\":true,\"allowDirectSubmit\":false,\"archivedVersions\":[],\"articleType\":\"Research Article\",\"associatedPublications\":[],\"authors\":[{\"id\":594754890,\"identity\":\"e59e4c95-ac51-4eeb-a583-727feb6cd8e1\",\"order_by\":0,\"name\":\"Kieran Killen\",\"email\":\"\",\"orcid\":\"\",\"institution\":\"University of Glasgow\",\"correspondingAuthor\":false,\"prefix\":\"\",\"firstName\":\"Kieran\",\"middleName\":\"\",\"lastName\":\"Killen\",\"suffix\":\"\"},{\"id\":594754895,\"identity\":\"45d16e5d-3bbd-473d-9004-a9f6d53e0e2d\",\"order_by\":1,\"name\":\"Georgia Kirby\",\"email\":\"\",\"orcid\":\"\",\"institution\":\"University of Glasgow\",\"correspondingAuthor\":false,\"prefix\":\"\",\"firstName\":\"Georgia\",\"middleName\":\"\",\"lastName\":\"Kirby\",\"suffix\":\"\"},{\"id\":594754896,\"identity\":\"296ab844-c07e-4bbf-9169-0d99572cffdb\",\"order_by\":2,\"name\":\"Rebecca Brown\",\"email\":\"\",\"orcid\":\"\",\"institution\":\"University of Glasgow\",\"correspondingAuthor\":false,\"prefix\":\"\",\"firstName\":\"Rebecca\",\"middleName\":\"\",\"lastName\":\"Brown\",\"suffix\":\"\"},{\"id\":594754901,\"identity\":\"b9c32c1d-cc95-4ae7-9d84-3e6470c3a553\",\"order_by\":3,\"name\":\"Susanne Krabbendam\",\"email\":\"\",\"orcid\":\"\",\"institution\":\"University of Glasgow\",\"correspondingAuthor\":false,\"prefix\":\"\",\"firstName\":\"Susanne\",\"middleName\":\"\",\"lastName\":\"Krabbendam\",\"suffix\":\"\"},{\"id\":594754904,\"identity\":\"9ca85474-5552-4065-9320-dec19fab3dc1\",\"order_by\":4,\"name\":\"Luca Nelli\",\"email\":\"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAABA0lEQVRIiWNgGAWjYBACPigtw8fMfIDhAZKMAS4tbFCah42ZLYEhgTQtDDwGRGqRSH74gXGHDQ8bO8/nFwk1dXb9EgmMH34wHDbGrSXNWILxTBrQYbzbLBKOHU6eOSOBWbKH4bAZbi05DBKMbYfBWgwS2A4kG9xOYJBmYDhsg0cL8w/Gtv9ALTzPDBL+1YG0MP8moIUNaMsBkBbmB4ltzHZALWwgW3A7jOeZmUViWzIokM0YEvsOJ0jOf9hm2WOQjtP7/OzJj298bLOT4+c//PjDh2919vw8hw/f+FFhbdiASw8IJMAcCSQSGxgYG/DECipg/gAk7IlTOwpGwSgYBSMJAABIYUkaJD6uvAAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==\",\"orcid\":\"\",\"institution\":\"University of Glasgow\",\"correspondingAuthor\":true,\"prefix\":\"\",\"firstName\":\"Luca\",\"middleName\":\"\",\"lastName\":\"Nelli\",\"suffix\":\"\"},{\"id\":594754905,\"identity\":\"63ff015d-13e0-4e9e-bc33-b74c1711d5e9\",\"order_by\":5,\"name\":\"Heather M. Ferguson\",\"email\":\"\",\"orcid\":\"\",\"institution\":\"University of Glasgow\",\"correspondingAuthor\":false,\"prefix\":\"\",\"firstName\":\"Heather\",\"middleName\":\"M.\",\"lastName\":\"Ferguson\",\"suffix\":\"\"}],\"badges\":[],\"createdAt\":\"2026-02-20 11:10:47\",\"currentVersionCode\":1,\"declarations\":\"\",\"doi\":\"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8925190/v1\",\"doiUrl\":\"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8925190/v1\",\"draftVersion\":[],\"editorialEvents\":[],\"editorialNote\":\"\",\"failedWorkflow\":false,\"files\":[{\"id\":103426463,\"identity\":\"a0bf6675-9882-491d-9ad0-949820f863c7\",\"added_by\":\"auto\",\"created_at\":\"2026-02-25 14:26:56\",\"extension\":\"pdf\",\"order_by\":1,\"title\":\"\",\"display\":\"\",\"copyAsset\":false,\"role\":\"manuscript-pdf\",\"size\":1056433,\"visible\":true,\"origin\":\"\",\"legend\":\"\",\"description\":\"\",\"filename\":\"hsitmalMS20Feb2026.pdf\",\"url\":\"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8925190/v1_covered_d29db1c6-e640-48ff-93e8-40dfbc6a3ba8.pdf\"}],\"financialInterests\":\"No competing interests reported.\",\"formattedTitle\":\"Contemporary Anopheles vector species distribution in Scotland and its association with historical hotspots of malaria transmission\",\"fulltext\":[],\"fulltextSource\":\"\",\"fullText\":\"\",\"funders\":[],\"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow\":false,\"hasManuscriptDocX\":false,\"hasOptedInToPreprint\":true,\"hasPassedJournalQc\":\"\",\"hasAnyPriority\":true,\"hideJournal\":false,\"highlight\":\"\",\"institution\":\"\",\"isAcceptedByJournal\":false,\"isAuthorSuppliedPdf\":true,\"isDeskRejected\":\"\",\"isHiddenFromSearch\":false,\"isInQc\":false,\"isInWorkflow\":false,\"isPdf\":true,\"isPdfUpToDate\":true,\"isWithdrawnOrRetracted\":false,\"journal\":{\"display\":true,\"email\":\"info@researchsquare.com\",\"identity\":\"malaria-journal\",\"isNatureJournal\":false,\"hasQc\":true,\"allowDirectSubmit\":false,\"externalIdentity\":\"malj\",\"sideBox\":\"Learn more about [Malaria Journal](http://malariajournal.biomedcentral.com/)\",\"snPcode\":\"12936\",\"submissionUrl\":\"https://submission.nature.com/new-submission/12936/3\",\"title\":\"Malaria Journal\",\"twitterHandle\":\"@malariajournal\",\"acdcEnabled\":true,\"dfaEnabled\":true,\"editorialSystem\":\"em\",\"reportingPortfolio\":\"BMC/SO AJ\",\"inReviewEnabled\":true,\"inReviewRevisionsEnabled\":true},\"keywords\":\"Historical malaria, Ague, mosquitoes, species distribution models, Anopheles plumbeus, Anopheles maculipennis, Anopheles claviger, vector surveillance, Scotland\",\"lastPublishedDoi\":\"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8925190/v1\",\"lastPublishedDoiUrl\":\"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8925190/v1\",\"license\":{\"name\":\"CC BY 4.0\",\"url\":\"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/\"},\"manuscriptAbstract\":\"\\u003ch2\\u003eBackground\\u003c/h2\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eMalaria poses a significant threat to public health in tropical regions, with nearly half of the global population at risk. Historically, transmission was common in temperate regions including northwestern Europe, with records indicating that malaria was prevalent in Scotland until the early 19th century. While current environmental and epidemiological conditions are unsuitable for transmission, the risk of re-establishment of malaria or other mosquito-borne diseases in Scotland may increase with climate change. As a first step to assess the potential for future transmission risk, we aimed to map the distribution of two native \\u003cem\\u003eAnopheles\\u003c/em\\u003e mosquito species in Scotland that have been implicated in historical malaria transmission and assess the relationship between areas of high contemporary suitability and historical hotspots of transmission.\\u003c/p\\u003e\\u003ch2\\u003eMethods\\u003c/h2\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eUsing data generated from a recent Scotland-wide mosquito surveillance programme and citizen science reporting (2023\\u0026ndash;2024), we used species distribution models to predict the current distribution of \\u003cem\\u003eAnopheles claviger\\u003c/em\\u003e and \\u003cem\\u003eAn. plumbeus\\u003c/em\\u003e in Scotland and identify their associations with environmental and land-use variables. Another historical vector, \\u003cem\\u003eAn. maculipennis\\u003c/em\\u003e s.l., was also recorded but with too few observations for reliable modelling. Using georeferenced historical parish hotspots of malaria in Scotland (18th century records), we tested whether predicted contemporary suitability at hotspot locations was higher than expected by chance using comparisons against randomly sampled background locations.\\u003c/p\\u003e\\u003ch2\\u003eResults\\u003c/h2\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eSeveral climatic and physical environmental variables were associated with \\u003cem\\u003eAnopheles\\u003c/em\\u003e species distribution in Scotland, with altitude and landcover being the most consistent, and temperature and precipitation having variable impact across species. \\u003cem\\u003eAnopheles\\u003c/em\\u003e were predicted to have widespread distribution across coastal and lowland Scotland, with pockets of habitat suitability extending up to the northeast coast and Shetland islands. Historical hotspots of malaria (parish locations) were consistently associated with higher predicted current suitability for \\u003cem\\u003eAnopheles\\u003c/em\\u003e species than background locations.\\u003c/p\\u003e\\u003ch2\\u003eConclusions\\u003c/h2\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eOverall, these findings show that potential malaria vectors are still common throughout Scotland and highlight the need for continued monitoring to generate more accurate estimates of predictors, distribution and future disease risk.\\u003c/p\\u003e\",\"manuscriptTitle\":\"Contemporary Anopheles vector species distribution in Scotland and its association with historical hotspots of malaria transmission\",\"msid\":\"\",\"msnumber\":\"\",\"nonDraftVersions\":[{\"code\":1,\"date\":\"2026-02-25 14:26:28\",\"doi\":\"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8925190/v1\",\"editorialEvents\":[{\"type\":\"communityComments\",\"content\":0},{\"type\":\"reviewerAgreed\",\"content\":\"226436586760556158999460413434286849586\",\"date\":\"2026-04-23T08:26:22+00:00\",\"index\":\"hide\",\"fulltext\":\"\"},{\"type\":\"editorInvitedReview\",\"content\":\"\",\"date\":\"2026-04-18T14:41:12+00:00\",\"index\":\"hide\",\"fulltext\":\"\"},{\"type\":\"reviewerAgreed\",\"content\":\"280413082513875634198809905847486656951\",\"date\":\"2026-03-12T13:34:25+00:00\",\"index\":\"hide\",\"fulltext\":\"\"},{\"type\":\"reviewersInvited\",\"content\":\"\",\"date\":\"2026-03-01T14:00:01+00:00\",\"index\":\"\",\"fulltext\":\"\"},{\"type\":\"editorAssigned\",\"content\":\"\",\"date\":\"2026-02-21T05:38:30+00:00\",\"index\":\"\",\"fulltext\":\"\"},{\"type\":\"checksComplete\",\"content\":\"\",\"date\":\"2026-02-21T05:36:53+00:00\",\"index\":\"\",\"fulltext\":\"\"},{\"type\":\"submitted\",\"content\":\"Malaria Journal\",\"date\":\"2026-02-20T10:58:46+00:00\",\"index\":\"\",\"fulltext\":\"\"}],\"status\":\"published\",\"journal\":{\"display\":true,\"email\":\"info@researchsquare.com\",\"identity\":\"malaria-journal\",\"isNatureJournal\":false,\"hasQc\":true,\"allowDirectSubmit\":false,\"externalIdentity\":\"malj\",\"sideBox\":\"Learn more about [Malaria Journal](http://malariajournal.biomedcentral.com/)\",\"snPcode\":\"12936\",\"submissionUrl\":\"https://submission.nature.com/new-submission/12936/3\",\"title\":\"Malaria Journal\",\"twitterHandle\":\"@malariajournal\",\"acdcEnabled\":true,\"dfaEnabled\":true,\"editorialSystem\":\"em\",\"reportingPortfolio\":\"BMC/SO AJ\",\"inReviewEnabled\":true,\"inReviewRevisionsEnabled\":true}}],\"origin\":\"\",\"ownerIdentity\":\"a2b54201-3833-4924-9ff8-d2230d37c354\",\"owner\":[],\"postedDate\":\"February 25th, 2026\",\"published\":true,\"recentEditorialEvents\":[],\"rejectedJournal\":[],\"revision\":\"\",\"amendment\":\"\",\"status\":\"under-review\",\"subjectAreas\":[],\"tags\":[],\"updatedAt\":\"2026-03-01T14:08:14+00:00\",\"versionOfRecord\":[],\"versionCreatedAt\":\"2026-02-25 14:26:28\",\"video\":\"\",\"vorDoi\":\"\",\"vorDoiUrl\":\"\",\"workflowStages\":[]},\"version\":\"v1\",\"identity\":\"rs-8925190\",\"journalConfig\":\"researchsquare\"},\"__N_SSP\":true},\"page\":\"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]\",\"query\":{\"redirect\":\"/article/rs-8925190\",\"identity\":\"rs-8925190\",\"version\":[\"v1\"]},\"buildId\":\"XKTyCvWXoU3ODBz1xrDgd\",\"isFallback\":false,\"isExperimentalCompile\":false,\"dynamicIds\":[84888],\"gssp\":true,\"scriptLoader\":[]}","source_license":"CC-BY-4.0","license_restricted":false}