{"paper_id":"213d58d3-63a9-4305-a5c9-5bb6535b8aed","body_text":"Socio-environmental impacts of climate change in the Metropolitan Area of Xalapa, Mexico: challenges and opportunities | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Socio-environmental impacts of climate change in the Metropolitan Area of Xalapa, Mexico: challenges and opportunities Bruno Jandir Mello, Cristiane Mansur de Moraes Souza, José Irivaldo Alves Oliveira Silva, and 9 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-6497889/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted 10 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract This study aims to analyze the challenges and opportunities faced by the Metropolitan Area (MA) of Xalapa, México, in the context of climate uncertainties. The methodology was divided into two phases: the first involved analyzing variations in temperature and precipitation patterns from 1960 to 2020, using historical climate data sourced from the WorldClim platform, processed with R statistical software and Geographic Information Systems (GIS). Through time series analysis and linear regression modeling, the study identified key climate variability patterns. The second phase mapped and examined social groups and their respective actions to mitigate the impacts of climate change, thus formulating climate action strategies. The results indicate an increase of 1.24°C in minimum temperatures and 1.31°C in maximum temperatures between 1960 and 2020. In addition, a decrease in precipitation frequency was observed, resulting in a reduction of 19.4 mm in the analyzed period. However, the region has experienced more intense precipitation events, with the pattern of rainfall becoming more concentrated in the more populous areas. These shifting climate patterns could present significant challenges, including increased pressure on water supply systems due to prolonged droughts, negative impacts on agriculture, and a growing need for investments in disaster risk management. The study also highlights opportunities to implement adaptive measures to mitigate the adverse effects of global warming, supported by a participatory governance model that has historically been established in the region. Climate Change Global Warming Climate Governance Resilience Social Groups Figures Figure 1 Figure 2 Figure 3 Figure 4 Figure 5 Figure 6 Figure 7 1. Introduction Climate change has emerged as one of the most pressing and complex challenges confronting governments and societies worldwide (Ho et al. 2018 ; Tierney 2020 ; Clayton; Karazsia 2020 ; Xu et al. 2020 ; Steffen; Bradshaw 2021 ; Folke et al. 2021; Kemp et al. 2022; Campbell et al. 2022 ; Wu et al. 2022 ). The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC 2023, p. 4) underscores that human activities, particularly the emission of greenhouse gases, are the primary drivers of global warming, with the Earth's average temperature rising by 1.1°C between 1850 and 2020. Should major countries fail to adopt more effective mitigation measures, global temperatures could increase by as much as 4.8°C by the year 2100. Considering this threat, the IPCC (2018) has called for limiting the global temperature rise to 1.5°C by 2030—a target that increasingly appears out of reach given the accelerating rate of change in climate uncertainties. These climatic shifts not only exacerbate socio-environmental crises but also generate profound economic and political ramifications, including higher frequency of disasters, a growing number of climate refugees, and the deepening of social inequalities, especially in the most vulnerable countries (Beck 2015 ; Artaxo 2020; Wen et al. 2023). As the IPCC (2021, p. 36) highlights, such transformations are creating a landscape of increasing vulnerability for various populations, further straining common resources and social structures. As detailed in the IPCC report (2021, p.26): The poorest regions of Africa, Latin America, and Asia have fewer opportunities for adaptation and, therefore, are the most vulnerable to changes in rainfall patterns, which cause droughts and floods. In other words, areas with higher poverty levels are even more susceptible to the adverse effects of climate change. Mexico is one such country which will experience a 4ºC increase in temperature in the border region with the United States, and it is estimated that the rest of the country will experience a temperature rise between 2.5ºC and 3.5ºC (Estrada et al 2023 ). Regarding precipitation, an average reduction of between 5% and 10% is expected (i.e., approximately 22 mm/month less) (National Center for Environmental Information 2018). The data is alarming, as the most significant impacts primarily include exacerbated droughts, considering that about 67% of the country’s area is arid or semi-arid, while only 33% have humid climatic characteristics. According to Hofste (2019), 15 of the country's 32 states are classified as extremely water scarce. Another identified trend is the increase in severe rainfall events, which have the potential to worsen the impacts of floods, landslides, and other disasters. According to the data from the report Impacto Socioeconomicos de los Desastres , produced by the Centro Nacional de Prevención de Desastres (Mexico 2023, p.6), it reveals that: Between 2000 and 2009, disasters in Mexico resulted in 4,551 deaths with estimated damages of US $ 843 million. In the series between 2010 and 2019, 5,677 deaths were recorded, and the estimated damage amounted to US $ 20 billion. Between 2020 and 2023, there were 2,467 deaths and US $ 7 billion in economic losses The state of Veracruz Ignacio de la Llave, located on the Gulf Coast of Mexico, was the second most impacted by hydrometeorological disasters in 2022 and 2023 (droughts, floods, hurricanes, and landslides). During this time, 41 deaths were recorded, along with approximately 1.9 billion dollars in economic losses, accounting for 17% of the damages reported nationwide (Mexico 2022; 2023). The state also recorded 29% of landslide events in the country in 2023, ranking second in terms of fatalities (Mexico 2023, p. 12). In Veracruz, 3,848 areas vulnerable to flooding were identified, spread across 132 municipalities (Secretaria de Protección Civil de Veracruz 2023 ). The MA of Xalapa stands out as the region with the highest number of vulnerable locations (94 areas) in disaster-prone areas within the state (Gobierno de Xalapa 2023 ). The problems faced by the MA of Xalapa are primarily related to irregular rainfall patterns, with frequent droughts that severely impact water supply in the region. According to the data from the Drought Monitor in Mexico (Mexico 2024), there was a drastic increase in the frequency of drought periods in the MA of Xalapa. Between 2003 and 2013, 57 drought episodes were recorded, of which 37 were classified as abnormally dry, 17 as moderate, two as severe, and one as extreme. Between 2014 and 2024, the number of drought periods surged to 107, with 70 abnormally dry events, 25 moderate, nine severe, and three extremes. This substantial increase highlights the intensification of water scarcity in the region, reflecting a concerning trend of worsening adverse climate conditions. Another major challenge is the occurrence of landslides, often associated with deforestation and inadequate urbanization in risky areas. An increase in the number of landslides was recorded, primarily in the municipality of Xalapa, which has thousands of people living in risk areas. Between 2019 and 2024, 10 deaths and hundreds of incidents were reported (Mexico 2024). In addition to climate change, anthropogenic factors are also influencing the increase in prolonged droughts, as well as exacerbating the impact of more intense rainfall. The accelerated process of deforestation, driven by the expansion of agriculture and livestock farming, along with inadequate sanitation infrastructure, especially the lack of high-quality piped drinking water, is intensifying local vulnerability to extreme weather events. These factors disproportionately affect the poorest populations with limited access to protective infrastructure, making them the most impacted by droughts, dry spells, floods, landslides, and erosion (IPCC 2021). In this context, the hypothesis is that the MA of Xalapa has experienced a significant increase in the average temperature and a variation in precipitation, with more intense droughts and more concentrated rainfall, reflecting the effects of global climate change and local anthropogenic impact. Furthermore, there are opportunities to combat climate change, particularly through organized social groups that work for the sustainability of their territories. Groups such as Guardianes del Agua and Terravida are actively seeking solutions and implementing actions (such as the Water Governance Agenda, reforestation projects, and environmental education) to mitigate the negative impacts of endogenous anthropogenic activities as well as climate change.Thus, the research question emerges: what are the climate trends, and how has the region prepared for the adverse effects of climate change? This study aims to analyze the challenges and opportunities facing the MA of Xalapa, Mexico, in the context of climate change. The relevance of this project stems from its association with the international cooperation project “ Scalar Challenges of Water Governance in Hydrosocial Territories in Brazil in the Context of Climate Change: A Comparative Study with Mexico, Portugal, and England ”. In addition to this introduction, the article is divided into three sections: i) methodological procedures; ii) results and discussion; and iii) final considerations. 2. Methodological Procedures The mixed methodology adopted is characterized by qualitative and quantitative analysis, descriptive and exploratory, divided into two phases. The first phase aimed to identify the challenges posed by climate change, where simple linear regression was used to model the relationship between climate variables, such as temperature and precipitation, as well as bilinear interpolation to enhance the spatial visualization of climate data obtained from WorldClim (2021). The second phase aimed to identify opportunities for addressing climate change, which involved mapping the social groups interested in socio-environmental and climate management. Thus, a model of articulation between social groups and institutions was developed, with the collaboration of the Guardianes del Agua groups and the Grupo de Investigación Acción Socio-Ecológica (GIASE) of the Universidad Veracruzana in Xalapa. This process allowed for understanding the practices and challenges faced by the groups in water management and developing strategies to strengthen climate governance and improve responses to the impacts of climate change. 2.1. Study Area The MA of Xalapa (Fig. 1 ) consists of the city of Xalapa-Enriquez, and eight other municipalities in the state of Veracruz: Coatepec, Emiliano Zapata, Xico, Jilotepec, Banderilla, Rafael Lucio, Acajete and Tlalnelhuayocan. Founded in 1519 by Spanish immigrants, Xalapa had its status as the state capital restored in 1920. According to the 2020 Population and Housing Census conducted by Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografia (INEGI 2020), this metropolitan area has a population of 789,157 inhabitants, making it the twenty-sixth most populous city in Mexico and the second most populous in the state of Veracruz. The total area of the MA of Xalapa is 867 km². The most populous municipality is Xalapa, with 443,063 inhabitants, followed by Coatepec with 93,911 inhabitants (INEGI 2020). The rivers that flow through the region are La Antigua, Sedeño, Carneros, Sordo, Santiago, Zapotillo, Castillo, and Coapexpan. The region's hydrography also includes streams and springs such as Chiltoyac, Ánimas, Xallitic, Techacapan, and Tlalmecapan. It has a humid and varied climate, with temperatures that can reach a maximum of 34.3°C and minimums ranging from 2 to 5°C. The region is located on the eastern slopes of the Cofre de Perote (4,282 m), which results in irregular and highly sloped terrain. The highest elevation in the region is the Cerro de Macuiltépetl, which rises to 1,587 m. The city's elevation ranges from 1,250 m to 1,560 m, resulting in an average annual temperature of 18°C and a humid temperate climate. The average annual rainfall is 1,464 mm (INEGI 2020). 2.2. Methods Simple linear regression is one of the most used statistical tools to model the relationship between two quantitative variables. Its main objective is to describe, predict, or infer how a dependent variable (or response) is influenced by an independent variable (or predictor). This approach assumes that there is a linear relationship between the variables, expressed by Eq. ( 1 ): $$\\:y=\\beta\\:0+\\:{\\beta\\:}1\\text{X}+\\text{ϵ}$$ 1 Where Y represents the dependent variable, X the independent variable, β0 is the intercept, β1 is the slope coefficient (or slope) that measures the impact of X on Y, and ϵ is the error term that captures variations not explained by the model. In this way, positive slope coefficients indicate that as variable X increases, the variable Y tends to increase as well. Bilinear interpolation is a widely used technique in numerical analysis and image processing to estimate values on a two-dimensional grid. This approach is an extension of linear interpolation, applied sequentially in two directions, typically along the x and y axes. Given a grid of points with known values, bilinear interpolation calculates the value of an internal point by considering the values of the four nearest points that form a rectangle around the desired point. The method assumes that the variation of values is linear in each direction, resulting in the following formula: $$\\:f\\left(x,y\\right)=f00\\left(1-t\\right)\\left(1-\\mu\\:\\right)+f10t\\left(1-\\mu\\:\\right)+f01\\left(1-t\\right)+f11t\\mu\\:$$ 2 Where \\(\\:f\\) 00​, \\(\\:f\\) 10​, \\(\\:f\\) 01​, \\(\\:f\\) 11​ are the values at the vertices of the rectangle, and t and µ represent the relative displacements in the x and y directions, respectively. Bilinear interpolation is preferred in many cases due to its computational simplicity and the fact that it provides smooth transitions between values in the grid. It is widely used in applications such as image scaling, surface modeling, and numerical simulations involving data distributed in two dimensions. Despite its advantages, the method may have limitations in cases of abrupt data variations, where more advanced techniques might be necessary. The data used in the analyses were obtained from the WorldClim (2021) database, which provides global information on variables such as minimum temperature, maximum temperature, and precipitation in raster format. Each raster file represents a specific variable for a given month, covering the entire Earth's surface with a defined spatial resolution. For processing, the data were filtered and clipped using a shapefile corresponding to the study area. Then, the values of each pixel within the delimited area were extracted, and the monthly average of each variable was calculated, enabling a detailed analysis of the climatic behavior in the region. To study the temporal and spatial behavior of the variables, line graphs were generated, where the X-axis represents time from 1960 to 2020, and the Y-axis represents the monthly average of the variable. For better visualization of the behavior, a simple regression model was created to model the trend for each variable. The spatial maps generated represent the decadal average of each pixel in the raster, showing the average behavior of the variable across the territory for each decade. However, the original data have a minimum resolution of 2.5 arc minutes, with pixels corresponding to approximately 21 km². This resolution is considered limited, especially when compared to the size of the study region. To overcome this limitation and enhance the spatial visualization of the data, the bilinear interpolation method was applied, generating a smoother and more continuous layer. This procedure not only improves the spatial representation of the variables but also facilitates the identification of patterns and trends in the analyzed area. The opportunity identification phase aimed to map in detail the social groups, institutions, and communities involved in territorial management in Xalapa, adopting a qualitative, exploratory, and participatory approach. The methodological process was divided into several stages to ensure a comprehensive understanding of the local dynamics of territorial management in the face of climate change. First, a thorough exploration of the groups and institutions actively working on territorial management in Xalapa was conducted. This initial analysis focused on social movements, non-governmental organizations, community committees, academic groups, and other actors involved in the fight for territorial preservation. During this stage, a detailed historical timeline was created to map the evolution of these groups’ actions over time, highlighting significant milestones, major achievements, and the challenges faced in their struggle for territory through direct or indirect actions related to climate change. The second phase consisted of a comprehensive review of the existing academic literature, as well as the analysis of technical reports and official documents related to addressing climate change in the Xalapa region. This survey aimed to deepen the understanding of the methodologies used, water resource management practices, and decision-making processes involving different social actors. The review also helped identify key knowledge gaps and areas where the groups' actions could be improved. Based on the analysis of the groups and existing practices, a model was developed for articulating the collaboration between social groups and institutions working in territorial management in the face of climate change. This model was developed with the active collaboration of the Guardianes del Agua group and the Grupo de Investigação Ação Socio-Ecológica (GIASE), both affiliated with the Universidad Veracruzana, located in Xalapa, Veracruz, Mexico. Through this model, the aim was to effectively structure communication and collaboration among the different stakeholders, with the goal of strengthening the collective and sustainable management of water resources. The research included active participation and direct involvement in 84 meetings, workshops, field incursions, and events organized by the partner groups, providing a deeper understanding of the social dynamics and decision-making processes influencing territorial management in relation to climate. During these activities, qualitative data were collected through observations and discussions with members of social groups, community leaders, and other participants. Data collection was crucial to understanding the practices adopted by the groups, the challenges they faced, and the strategies used to address issues related to water management. In the end, the results from the previous stages were integrated to form a comprehensive picture of the climate and territorial management situation in the Metropolitan Zone of Xalapa. The research resulted not only in a theoretical model but also in practical suggestions to improve interactions between the different groups and strengthen collaborative territorial governance, based on the experiences and challenges faced throughout the research. 3. Results and Discussion 3.1. Challenges imposed by climate change in the Metropolitan Area of Xalapa The results show that both minimum and maximum temperatures have increased, closely approaching the limit established by the IPCC (2028). The analysis of the temperature series reveals a significant increase, especially starting from the 1990s. The minimum temperature series showed an increase over time, with the regression model generated for each monthly unit indicating that the average monthly minimum temperature tends to rise by 0.001238 degrees Celsius, resulting in a total increase of 1.24°C between 1960 and 2020, with a projected trend to reach 1.61°C by 2050. Minimum temperatures have increased in all the municipalities analyzed, with variations indicating a warming trend between the years 1960 and 2020. In Acajete, the range was 1.18°C, while in Banderilla and Coatepec, the increase was 1.25°C. Emiliano Zapata recorded a variation of 1.21°C, and Jilotepec showed an increase of 1.33°C. Rafael Lucio had the largest variation, with an increase of 1.42°C. Tlalnelhuayocan and Xalapa also showed increases, with 1.25°C and 1.24°C, respectively. Finally, Xico had a variation of 1.31°C. The regression model generated for each monthly unit indicated that the average monthly maximum temperature tends to increase by 0.002116 degrees Celsius, resulting in an increase of 1.31°C between 1960 and 2020, with a projected trend to reach 1.95°C by 2050. In Acajete, the maximum temperature increased by 1.28°C, while in Banderilla, the increase was 1.25°C. Coatepec recorded the largest increase, with 1.38°C, followed by Emiliano Zapata, with an increase of 1.29°C. In Jilotepec, the maximum temperature rose by 1.25°C, and in Rafael Lucio, the increase was 1.42°C, the highest among the municipalities. Tlalnelhuayocan saw an increase of 1.17°C, while in Xalapa, the maximum temperature rose by 1.26°C. Finally, in Xico, the maximum temperature increased by 1.43°C, the largest recorded increase in the region. These data demonstrate a consistent rise in minimum temperatures across all municipalities, reflecting a possible trend of local warming. Figure 3 presents the graphs of the time series for minimum and maximum temperatures between 1960 and 2020. Figure 4 presents data revealing an increase in both minimum and maximum temperatures in all the municipalities analyzed, comparing the periods of 1960–1969 with 2010–2020. In Acajete, the average minimum temperature increased from 7.37°C to 9.13°C. In Banderilla, the minimum rose from 12.42°C to 14.08°C, while the maximum also followed the increasing trend, rising from 12.72°C to 14.53°C. In Emiliano Zapata, the average minimum temperature went from 16.25°C to 18.04°C, reflecting a significant increase. In Jilotepec, the minimum temperature increased from 14.62°C to 16.42°C, and in Rafael Lucio, the minimum rose from 10.42°C to 12.17°C. In Tlalnelhuayocan, the average minimum temperature increased from 11.38°C to 13.29°C, while in Xalapa, the minimum went from 13.67°C to 15.43°C. Finally, in Xico, the minimum temperature rose from 8.51°C to 10.39°C, with the maximum also increasing in the same period, from 8.51°C to 10.39°C. In Acajete, the average maximum temperature increased from 17.58°C to 19.98°C. Banderilla recorded an increase from 22.08°C to 24.50°C, while in Coatepec, the average maximum temperature rose from 22.69°C to 25.01°C. In Emiliano Zapata, the average maximum temperature went up from 26.95°C to 29.30°C, reflecting a significant rise. In Jilotepec, the maximum temperature increased from 24.17°C to 26.54°C, and in Rafael Lucio, the temperature rose from 20.75°C to 23.17°C. Tlalnelhuayocan saw an increase from 21.62°C to 24.04°C, while in Xalapa, the average maximum temperature went from 23.69°C to 26.12°C. Finally, in Xico, the average maximum temperature rose from 18.97°C to 21.40°C. The precipitation series did not show a clear seasonality over time, with a coefficient very close to 0 and no significant impact given the magnitude of the variable. Precipitation follows a pattern of reduction, but the series points to periods of more intense rainfall. The regression model generated for each monthly unit indicated that the average monthly precipitation tends to decrease by 0.006468 millimeters. In this sense, the final average reduction was 19.4 mm of rainfall between 1960 and 2020. Although no significant temporal variation was observed, spatial maps revealed that the highest precipitation records tend to concentrate in the center of the region over the decades, specifically in the municipalities of Xalapa and Coatepec (the most populous), suggesting the hypothesis that there is some unidentified interference in the distribution of rainfall in the region. Between 1960 and 2020, there was a decrease in precipitation in all the municipalities of the MA of Xalapa analyzed. In Acajete, the decrease was 13.68 mm, while in Banderilla, precipitation decreased by 22.38 mm. Coatepec recorded a reduction of 18.53 mm, and Emiliano Zapata experienced the largest decrease, with 23.06 mm. In Jilotepec, the reduction was 22.23 mm, and in Rafael Lucio, precipitation decreased by 18.67 mm. Tlalnelhuayocan showed a drop of 19.43 mm, while in Xalapa, precipitation decreased by 22.43 mm. Finally, Xico recorded a reduction of 14.65 mm. These data indicate a general trend of decreasing precipitation in the region over the period analyzed. According to studies by Bonacci et al. ( 2024 ), Zhi et al. ( 2023 ), and Woolway et al. ( 2019 ), rivers and water sources are highly vulnerable to global warming, which can cause severe impacts on the dynamics of water bodies, affecting the quantity, quality, distribution, and aquatic fauna and flora, as well as impacting precipitation and evaporation cycles. In the MA of Xalapa, rising temperatures and reduced rainfall can affect the carrying capacity of the Rio La Antigua, the region's main water source, resulting in prolonged droughts. Moreover, warming could negatively affect aquatic species and alter the behavior of forests and wildlife, disrupting the local ecosystem. Biodiversity, particularly in higher-altitude areas, could be severely impacted, as increasing temperatures and reduced rainfall alter the habitats of native species, favoring those adapted to heat and dry climates, threatening the essential ecosystem services provided by species dependent on colder climates (Buckridge, Mortari and Machado 2007). Temperature and precipitation variations may also affect agricultural cycles in the region, potentially reducing crop productivity and increasing vulnerability to pests and diseases (Duarte, 2023 ; Assad, 2021 ). In 2023, the highest international sales from the MA of Xalapa were Coffee (US $ 29.9 million) and fresh or dried citrus fruits (US $ 4.52 million) (Datamexico 2023). DaMatta et al. ( 2019 ) state that although the effects of global warming on coffee may be less severe than previously thought, there is still a risk that this phenomenon could affect local productivity. Another issue that may affect the region is the demand for electricity, which is influenced by climate change. First, changes in precipitation and temperature impact hydropower production through changes in water flow (Golombek et al. 2012 ). Second, the efficiency of thermal plants decreases due to higher water temperatures used for cooling, thus using more fuel and exacerbating greenhouse gas emissions (Golombek et al. 2012 ; Rubio and Del Valle 2024 ). However, Mexico, facing the need to increase its electricity production, has been investing in building hydropower and thermoelectric plants. Nonetheless, a hydropower project near the region has sparked protests and tensions between local communities, social groups, businesses, and the government (Guardianes del Agua 2023 ). The trend of rising temperatures and reduced rainfall could further aggravate these tensions, as sustaining this economic growth pattern will require the construction of energy infrastructure, leading to significant socio-environmental impacts. The reduction in rainfall frequency, combined with the increase in the intensity and unpredictability of precipitation, has deep and diverse impacts on the region's quality of life. The decrease in frequent rain compromises the recharge of aquifers, rivers, and reservoirs, impairing water availability for human consumption (Steffen et al., 2015). With the rise of droughts and the increasingly uneven distribution of water, the population faces long periods without supply. Between March and October 2023, the municipalities of Xalapa, Banderilla and Coatepec recorded 12 intense protests, with the closure of major roads due to water scarcity (Diario de Xalapa 2023 ). The protests were motivated by the insufficient infrastructure for water supply and storage, unable to meet the growing demand from the population. The most critical cases occurred in the Casa Blanca and Higueras neighborhoods in the municipality of Xalapa, in the Murillo Vidal Expansion, where residents went without water for nearly a month. Neighborhoods in the municipality of Banderilla went without water for up to 2 months. Prolonged droughts could force migrations, as seen in Brazil's Semi-Arid region, where millions moved to other areas, increasing pressure on these places (Nascimento 2024 ; Burnett et al. 2021 ). According to Limaye ( 2021 ), health problems caused by climate change are growing drastically. In the case of the MA of Xalapa, being a highly humid region, climate change could worsen respiratory and cardiovascular diseases due to rising temperatures and air pollution, as well as alter the spread of vector-borne infectious diseases like malaria and dengue. Though less frequent, more intense and unpredictable rains are increasing the risk of floods and landslides in the region. The recurrence of disasters in the area may be linked to the growing concentration of people and urban facilities located in risk zones, along with an increase in social vulnerability. Between 2019 and 2023, 10 people lost their lives due to landslides and sudden floods in Xalapa. On April 9, 2024, a landslide killed three people from the same family in Xalapa. According to the Atlas de Riesgo de Xalapa (2024), the intensification of severe rains may mainly affect the most vulnerable areas, such as the Dolores Hidalgo, Ampliación Luis Donaldo Colosio, Veracruz, Plan de Ayala, Xalapa 2000, and Nuevo Xalapa neighborhoods. These areas are highly vulnerable to disasters, particularly landslides, and have populations with insufficient financial resources to protect and recover. In summary, climate change in the MA of Xalapa has significant implications for the region, affecting the dynamics of water bodies, biodiversity, agriculture, energy infrastructure, and public health. Rising temperatures and reduced rainfall directly impact water availability and agricultural productivity while increasing the risks of disasters such as floods and landslides. Water scarcity, coupled with insufficient infrastructure, has led to social tensions, as demonstrated by protests. In conclusion, pressure and disputes over access to water are a growing reality that intensify with rising temperatures and decreasing rainfall frequency. 3.2. Opportunities to address the impacts of climate change in the Metropolitan Area of Xalapa Mexico has a tradition of social resistance, which is most robustly manifested in the management of water resources (Peña, Vargas and Romero 2013 ). Various community organizations, collectives, and social movements play an active role in defending water-climate issues and advocating for a more horizontal and participatory management approach. Another important aspect is the diversity and interconnectedness of the groups working for the territory in Mexico. There is a wide range of social actors, from indigenous groups to non-governmental organizations, who collaborate in networks to address common challenges (Nemécio 2021 ). National endogenous projects also threaten the coordination of these groups. Changes to the national water law ( Ley de Aguas Nacionales ) (Mexico 1992) in 2006 allowed the concession of services to private companies, resulting in significant increases in tariffs in several cities. Decrees issued on June 5, 2018, by the Peña Nieto government aimed to eliminate protection for large watersheds that were under restriction, where water extraction was limited. With this change, these areas were reclassified as reserve zones, allowing limited exploitation of common goods by private companies, should authorities deem it \"of public utility\" (Zarco 2020 ). However, President López Obrador’s administration implemented an austerity policy that led to a reduction in environmental management resources to finance megaprojects such as an oil refinery on the Gulf Coast and the Maya Train (Méndez and Romero 2024 ). This prioritization of megaprojects raises concerns about the country's sustainability and climate security. Experts argue that the reduction in investments in environmental policies and the lack of climate management are compromising the country’s ability to face challenges such as water scarcity and pollution (Zarco 2020 ). A proposal for a new water law in Mexico seeks to replace the current national water law, which has been criticized for its market-driven approach and its failure to consider human rights, equitable access, and the issues of climate change (Barragán 2020 ). The current law treats water as an economically valuable resource, prioritizing its concession to private and industrial interests, which has led to inadequate management and the marginalization of local and indigenous communities. In many cases, these communities are excluded from decision-making about water use in their territories (Armenta 2023 ). Among the criticisms of the Ley de Aguas Nacionales are the lack of mechanisms to ensure protection against over-exploitation (Jacobo-Marin 2020). According to the \" Agua para Todos, Agua para la Vida \" initiative (2018) and Barragán ( 2020 ), the new law should address key points, such as recognizing the human right to water as central, managing water cycles through nonprofit local systems, recognizing rights for indigenous peoples and agrarian nuclei without granting concessions, implementing hydraulic works only those agreed upon in Master Plans with community participation, ensuring citizen participation through assemblies and binding councils, creating plans to eradicate pollution and penalize polluters, combating over-exploitation with reduced concessions in over-exploited basins, subordinating mining and fracking to other activities, and combating impunity. In the MA of Xalapa, the main challenges are related to hydrological issues and sanitation infrastructure, such as recurring drought episodes and lack of access to water. In this context, local communities have a history of struggle and resistance, involving actions that have united various actors and created support networks to protect the territory from these threats, both anthropogenic and climatic. The coordination of these groups represents a key potential in addressing the impacts of anthropogenic actions and climate change in the region. The Fig. 6 . Shows a timeline of the establishment of social groups in the Xalapa Metropolitan Zone. The Red de Información y Acción Ambiental de Veracruz (RIAAVER) was created in 1990 by a group of citizens and academics concerned with socio-environmental issues in the state of Veracruz, with the goal of promoting more sustainable societies. In its early years, RIAAVER connected with other national environmental organizations, contributing to the agenda of the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro in 1992. In 1994, the Asociación de Desarrollo Sustentable del Río Sedeño was founded, focusing on preserving the river and the Sedeño Linear Park, promoting environmental management practices and agroecology. In 1999, Sendas AC was formed to work in territorial management and watersheds, emphasizing environmental awareness and education. The Asociación de Vecinos del Rio Pixquiac-Zoncuantla and the 400 Arboles, established in 2005, worked to demarcate the Federal Zone of the Pixquiac River and encourage the recovery of public space, eventually calling this initiative the \"Heart of Zoncuantla\". Their work focused on the ecological conservation of the Pixquiac River’s surroundings. In 2005, Global Water Watch Mexico began training community monitors to monitor water quality and influence public policies. In 2006, the Pixquiac River Basin Committee was formed to promote the management of common goods with a focus on community participation. In 2010, the Pueblos Unidos da Cuenca Antigua pelos Rios Libres was created to defend the rights of communities that would be affected by the dam planned by the Brazilian company Odebrecht with the collaboration of Mexican authorities in this basin. In 2011, INANA AC was established with the goal of developing projects aimed at health, forest conservation and water preservation. In 2015, the Archipiélago de Bosques y Selvas de Xalapa was created as a Protected Natural Area to preserve valuable ecosystems around the city of Xalapa. Consequently, the Red de Custodios was founded in 2015, based on the premise that the effectiveness of a Protected Natural Area would require territorial management with community participation and active citizen engagement, both in the delineated protected areas and increasingly in the entire metropolitan area (rural and urban). In 2017, RedForesta emerged as an initiative from INANA AC and the Red de Custodios of the Archipelago for landscape restoration, aiming to care for ecosystems around Xalapa through collaborative learning and network-based action. In 2018, the Integrated Water Resources Management Strategy for Xalapa was developed, with various organizations coming together to formulate it in collaboration with the municipal government, with a perspective for decades to come. After this event, the Guardianes del Agua emerged as a commission of the Red de Custodios del Archipiélago de Bosques y Selvas de Xalapa , gradually consolidating as its own network, integrating the previously mentioned organizations. This network has been working to coordinate actions for the defense of water-climate and water bodies in the region, using strategies to generate social, community, and citizen participation. Among the institutions focused on water and climate management, the Universidad Veracruzana plays an active role in researching effective water management practices, collaborating with groups such as the Grupo de Investigación Acción Socioambiental (GIASE) and the Centro de EcoAlfabetización y Diálogo de Saberes (ECODIALOGO). These initiatives, in partnership with organizations like the Centro Comunitario de Tradiciones, Saberes y Oficios de Chiltoyac (CECOMU) and the Centro de Investigación Tropical (CITRO), aim to promote sustainable practices and facilitate dialogue between local knowledge and scientific expertise. The Institute of Ecology (INECOL), founded in 1980, also contributes to research on biodiversity conservation and the management of common goods in Mexico. All these institutions have coordinated efforts to defend the territory from the encroachment of endogenous projects affecting water-climate management. These organizations and communities, together with Guardianes del Agua, aim to influence the formulation of water-climate policies. In 2021, this collaboration resulted in the \"Citizen Agenda for Water in Xalapa,\" aimed at ensuring the long-term sustainability of water, climate, and water ecosystems. Shortly after, the Guardians del Agua collaborated in formulating the National Research and Advocacy Project (PRONAII), titled \"Strengthening and Coordination of Collective Subjects for the Defense and Management of Water in the Territory,\" involving grassroots organizations, citizens, and academics from six states of the Mexican Republic (Fig. 7 ). Regarding the actions of these groups, one can identify that their efforts have focused on capturing and making visible information about socio-hydric and environmental impacts. Contributions from universities have also been channeled, and support from academics, educational programs, and students through social service has been mobilized to meet the information needs of the mobilized collectives. The integration of local knowledge with scientific knowledge enhances the construction of effective climate management strategies. The collective and community mobilization in defense of water and the environment, as discussed, demonstrates considerable organizational capacity, serving as a foundation for future actions and promoting active participation in decisions about water resources. The formation of collaborative networks between different groups allows the exchange of information and the joint implementation of actions, strengthening local resistance. Environmental education initiatives carried out in territory have empowered citizens, generating a positive impact on territorial management. In this context, it is possible to identify several potentialities of this governance model (Table 1 ): Table 1 Potentialities of the Xalapan Model of Territory Governance Elements Description Community Mobilization The mobilization of communities around the defense of territtory and the environment demonstrates social organizational capacity. This mobilization represents a foundation for the consolidation of actions and initiatives that affect decision-making. Collaborative Networks The various civil organizations and collectives formed in the region show the importance of collaboration between different social actors. The networks facilitate the exchange of information, resources, and experiences, strengthening the capacity for resistance and the implementation of joint actions. Environmental Education and Training The environmental awareness and education initiatives promoted by groups like Global Water Watch and other associations are essential for empowering communities. The formation of informed and engaged citizens has had a positive impact on territory management and environmental conservation. Community Management The appreciation of community-based water management, as demonstrated by the actions of the Civil Association Sustainable Development of the Sedeño River and others, can serve as a model for other regions. Integration of Local and Scientific Knowledge The collaboration between universities, research centers, and local communities, as seen in partnerships with the Universidad Veracruzana and INECOL, enhances the development of strategies that consider both traditional knowledge and modern science. Innovation in Sustainable Practices The implementation of agroecological practices and the promotion of sustainable alternatives, as demonstrated by Sendas AC and RedForesta, have the potential to improve the quality of life of communities and restore degraded ecosystems. Collective Action and Public Policy Articulation Campaigns like \"Agua Pasa Por Mi Casa\" and the Citizen Agenda for Water demonstrate the mobilization and awareness capacity of the population. The articulation between different groups and the pursuit of public policies (Guardianes del Agua and Pronaii) address local socio-hydric demands. These initiatives can inspire similar actions in other regions and act as a \"Doppler effect.\" From an organizational standpoint, the goal is for those affected by environmental issues to take action, generating information, mobilizing, and promoting initiatives, while establishing links with regional and local movements. Regarding actions in territories and ecosystems, the aim is for the information to translate into concrete actions that contribute to the design of strategies for the care, defense, and restoration of rivers and microbasins. Finally, in terms of political influence and citizenship in water governance, access to up-to-date information has been crucial to strengthen the defense of the territory.However, there are still many challenges, such as the absence of effective communication channels that hinder dialogue between community groups and government institutions. The interests of different social actors are often contradictory, creating difficulties in coordination. Often, these groups lack financial resources, making it difficult to implement joint actions. The establishment of effective mechanisms to monitor and assess the impact of policies and actions is often neglected due to the lack of resources. Therefore, the following suggestions stand out for strengthening resilience against climate emergencies: Increase the capacity to resist and absorb impacts by implementing safety structures adapted to the local physical environment: universalize basic sanitation, monitor and prevent new occupations in risk areas, and renaturalize watercourses, mangroves, and coastal areas. Forest and riparian vegetation recovery should also be prioritized, as well as implementing small-scale sponge city concepts. It is also necessary to invest in an urban infrastructure for rainwater harvesting. Develop a participatory climate action plan that focuses on reducing the risks of droughts and landslides: focus on reducing socio-spatial inequalities, prevent the increased exposure of people and infrastructure in risk areas, and, fundamentally, curb the progression of real estate speculation in the region. Encourage the creation of community support networks in risk areas: map networks of neighbors, social organizations, NGOs, and associations of merchants and business owners. This collaborative approach aims to contribute at the local level, promoting solidarity and the exchange of information among community members, in addition to facilitating mobilization and organization during emergencies. Expand programs with communities in a transdisciplinary manner to understand the environment in which they live: encourage the population to learn about environmental risk signs and government alert systems through the promotion of awareness programs, training, and simulations that teach how to identify these signs and use available alert systems. Implement more efficient agricultural models, such as agroecology: promote sustainable agricultural practices, such as agroecology, that minimize water use and avoid the use of pesticides. Consider local traditional knowledge and practices to improve soil and water management systems. Finally, the continuity of actions and the commitment of local actors is one of the greatest potentialities found in the case of the MA of Xalapa, as it opens spaces for communal action capable of resisting and re-existing against a dominant system that deteriorates life. Therefore, overcoming these issues goes beyond a simple technical or subjective matter; it requires a profound transformation in the way we approach development. This demands a significant commitment to structural changes aimed at building more robust societies that are adaptable to emerging socio-environmental challenges. Advancing towards resilience to disasters emerges as a key factor in strengthening regions against climate change, but its progress is challenging due to the need for a fundamental shift in the development paradigm. 4. Conclusion Since the 1960s, the MA of Xalapa has experienced a significant increase in both minimum and maximum temperatures, which has caused adverse climatic effects in the region. This warming is close to surpassing the projections of the IPCC, with negative impacts on ecosystems, agriculture, health, and water resources. Higher temperatures increase the risk of prolonged droughts and changes in precipitation patterns, with more intense and less frequent rainfall. This climate pattern has put greater pressure on water supply systems, due to reduced frequent rainfall and increased water demand caused by population growth and urban expansion. In summary, the MA of Xalapa faces increased water pressure and growing vulnerability to extreme climate events, highlighting the urgent need to adopt adaptation and risk management measures to mitigate the effects of climate change. The research used climatic data from WorldClim (2021) and applied bilinear interpolation and simple linear regression methods to analyze the temporal and spatial trends of climate variables. Although it provided a comprehensive view of the climatic behavior in the region, the research had limitations, such as the spatial resolution of the data, which may not be sufficient for smaller areas or those with significant climatic variability. Furthermore, the use of simple linear regression may not adequately reflect non-linear variations, and the qualitative approach used to map the social groups involved in water management may have introduced biases, as it focused on a limited sample of participants. The replication of this research can be carried out anywhere in the world, adapting to local climatic, social, and environmental characteristics. The next steps include studying Brazilian cases that are part of the international cooperation project, such as the Vale do Itajaí (Santa Catarina), Cariri Paraibano, and the state of Tocantins. Analyzing these experiences will allow for comparisons of water management practices, identification of good practices, and adaptive strategies that can be applied in Xalapa and other locations. Declarations Acknowledgments The authors thank the National Council for Scientific and Technological Development (CNPq) for the financial support. Author Declarations Funding This work was supported by National Council for Scientific and Technological Development (CNPq) under Grant Agreement No. 441757/2023-5. Dr. Bruno Jandir Mello has received research support from the National Council for Scientific and Technological Development (CNPq) for a postdoctoral fellowship abroad. Conflicts of interest/Competing interests The authors declare that the authors have no competing interests as defined by Springer, or other interests that might be perceived to influence the results and/or discussion reported in this paper. Ethics Approval Not applicable. Funding This work was supported by National Council for Scientific and Technological Development (CNPq) under Grant Agreement No. 441757/2023-5. Dr. Bruno Jandir Mello has received research support from the National Council for Scientific and Technological Development (CNPq) for a postdoctoral fellowship abroad. Consent for Publication The authors declare that they reviewed and approved the final text and consent to the publication of this manuscript. Consent to participate The authors declare that they consent to participate in the publication process of this manuscript. Availability of data and material/ Data availability The main datasets used were from Worldclim (2023). Available at: https://worldclim.org/data/index.html#google_vignette The analyses were performed in R Software, the code lines and scripts and the shapefiles are available are available in Supplementary Material. URL: https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1Rl-RrAIVbvtsOL0qtSxTT77JZUX_Rq8V?usp=sharing Code availability Not applicable. Author Contributions The authors declare that contributed to the study conception and design. All authors commented on previous versions of the manuscript. All authors read and approved the final manuscript. BJ, Mello. First draft, material preparation, writing of the text, data collection, data analysis, results, discussion, and supervision. CMM, Souza, Review, supervision, and translation. JIAO., Silva. Review, supervision, and translation. N, Bhattacharya-Mis. Review, supervision, and translation. K, Kantamaneni. Review and translation. AMR, Cavalcanti. Review and supervision. SMMCCS, Nemetz. Review and translation. AS, Lima Neto. Data collection. 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17:08:16\",\"currentVersionCode\":1,\"declarations\":\"\",\"doi\":\"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6497889/v1\",\"doiUrl\":\"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6497889/v1\",\"draftVersion\":[],\"editorialEvents\":[],\"editorialNote\":\"\",\"failedWorkflow\":false,\"files\":[{\"id\":82291872,\"identity\":\"9519317b-d695-4bfd-bf32-02333f7d0052\",\"added_by\":\"auto\",\"created_at\":\"2025-05-08 18:06:39\",\"extension\":\"jpg\",\"order_by\":1,\"title\":\"Figure 1\",\"display\":\"\",\"copyAsset\":false,\"role\":\"figure\",\"size\":324291,\"visible\":true,\"origin\":\"\",\"legend\":\"\\u003cp\\u003eMap of the Location of the Metropolitan Area of Xalapa.\\u003c/p\\u003e\",\"description\":\"\",\"filename\":\"Picture1.jpg\",\"url\":\"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6497889/v1/b61aac0a67f2b20335886c5c.jpg\"},{\"id\":82291868,\"identity\":\"32aa2f9d-8a2b-4314-be3d-2439e79109e7\",\"added_by\":\"auto\",\"created_at\":\"2025-05-08 18:06:39\",\"extension\":\"jpg\",\"order_by\":2,\"title\":\"Figure 2\",\"display\":\"\",\"copyAsset\":false,\"role\":\"figure\",\"size\":54353,\"visible\":true,\"origin\":\"\",\"legend\":\"\\u003cp\\u003eDemonstrative chart of the functioning of the Raster.\\u003c/p\\u003e\",\"description\":\"\",\"filename\":\"Picture2.jpg\",\"url\":\"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6497889/v1/98af0dc37e5785c04d37ed31.jpg\"},{\"id\":82291867,\"identity\":\"3b722c08-94a0-4a47-a06c-ddfb1671ee2a\",\"added_by\":\"auto\",\"created_at\":\"2025-05-08 18:06:39\",\"extension\":\"jpg\",\"order_by\":3,\"title\":\"Figure 3\",\"display\":\"\",\"copyAsset\":false,\"role\":\"figure\",\"size\":397702,\"visible\":true,\"origin\":\"\",\"legend\":\"\\u003cp\\u003eTime Series of Minimum and Maximum Temperatures 1960-2020.\\u003c/p\\u003e\",\"description\":\"\",\"filename\":\"Picture3.jpg\",\"url\":\"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6497889/v1/0154273cf2e8cefb1b2afba5.jpg\"},{\"id\":82291870,\"identity\":\"62a9abac-d4c4-4497-a6a7-99088a3b2e56\",\"added_by\":\"auto\",\"created_at\":\"2025-05-08 18:06:39\",\"extension\":\"jpg\",\"order_by\":4,\"title\":\"Figure 4\",\"display\":\"\",\"copyAsset\":false,\"role\":\"figure\",\"size\":234683,\"visible\":true,\"origin\":\"\",\"legend\":\"\\u003cp\\u003eMapped Temperature Series 1960-2020.\\u003c/p\\u003e\",\"description\":\"\",\"filename\":\"Picture4.jpg\",\"url\":\"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6497889/v1/66849b7b969a3d6997860bc5.jpg\"},{\"id\":82291874,\"identity\":\"aad0b927-92db-46d3-a607-efbe6f5d019a\",\"added_by\":\"auto\",\"created_at\":\"2025-05-08 18:06:39\",\"extension\":\"jpg\",\"order_by\":5,\"title\":\"Figure 5\",\"display\":\"\",\"copyAsset\":false,\"role\":\"figure\",\"size\":238205,\"visible\":true,\"origin\":\"\",\"legend\":\"\\u003cp\\u003ePrecipitation Time Series Mapped Between 1960 and 2020\\u003c/p\\u003e\",\"description\":\"\",\"filename\":\"Picture5.jpg\",\"url\":\"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6497889/v1/50a6f0dcc3a13a0095af58fb.jpg\"},{\"id\":82292198,\"identity\":\"2529d305-ad45-4afd-b37d-be3baa4b8f78\",\"added_by\":\"auto\",\"created_at\":\"2025-05-08 18:14:39\",\"extension\":\"jpg\",\"order_by\":6,\"title\":\"Figure 6\",\"display\":\"\",\"copyAsset\":false,\"role\":\"figure\",\"size\":99011,\"visible\":true,\"origin\":\"\",\"legend\":\"\\u003cp\\u003eTimeline of the establishment of social groups in the Xalapa Metropolitan Zone.\\u003c/p\\u003e\",\"description\":\"\",\"filename\":\"Picture6.jpg\",\"url\":\"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6497889/v1/ffcf60834bc3c78fe1192292.jpg\"},{\"id\":82292199,\"identity\":\"e390e99d-da12-4259-bfa6-107d5f0b5170\",\"added_by\":\"auto\",\"created_at\":\"2025-05-08 18:14:39\",\"extension\":\"jpg\",\"order_by\":7,\"title\":\"Figure 7\",\"display\":\"\",\"copyAsset\":false,\"role\":\"figure\",\"size\":294977,\"visible\":true,\"origin\":\"\",\"legend\":\"\\u003cp\\u003eCoordination for the defense and management of water-climate in the MA of Xalapa.\\u003c/p\\u003e\",\"description\":\"\",\"filename\":\"Picture7.jpg\",\"url\":\"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6497889/v1/6a47b102f75dde496c3bb11e.jpg\"},{\"id\":82293290,\"identity\":\"1ac40dad-40fa-460b-ade7-dc39c2083618\",\"added_by\":\"auto\",\"created_at\":\"2025-05-08 18:30:40\",\"extension\":\"pdf\",\"order_by\":0,\"title\":\"\",\"display\":\"\",\"copyAsset\":false,\"role\":\"manuscript-pdf\",\"size\":2414162,\"visible\":true,\"origin\":\"\",\"legend\":\"\",\"description\":\"\",\"filename\":\"manuscript.pdf\",\"url\":\"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6497889/v1/9c046942-a8ab-4794-9427-4f7f8da620ca.pdf\"}],\"financialInterests\":\"No competing interests reported.\",\"formattedTitle\":\"Socio-environmental impacts of climate change in the Metropolitan Area of Xalapa, Mexico: challenges and opportunities\",\"fulltext\":[{\"header\":\"1. Introduction\",\"content\":\"\\u003cp\\u003eClimate change has emerged as one of the most pressing and complex challenges confronting governments and societies worldwide (Ho et al. \\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR17\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2018\\u003c/span\\u003e; Tierney \\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR42\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2020\\u003c/span\\u003e; Clayton; Karazsia \\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR9\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2020\\u003c/span\\u003e; Xu et al. \\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR47\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2020\\u003c/span\\u003e; Steffen; Bradshaw \\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR41\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2021\\u003c/span\\u003e; Folke et al. 2021; Kemp et al. 2022; Campbell et al. \\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR8\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2022\\u003c/span\\u003e; Wu et al. \\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR46\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2022\\u003c/span\\u003e). The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC 2023, p. 4) underscores that human activities, particularly the emission of greenhouse gases, are the primary drivers of global warming, with the Earth's average temperature rising by 1.1\\u0026deg;C between 1850 and 2020. Should major countries fail to adopt more effective mitigation measures, global temperatures could increase by as much as 4.8\\u0026deg;C by the year 2100. Considering this threat, the IPCC (2018) has called for limiting the global temperature rise to 1.5\\u0026deg;C by 2030\\u0026mdash;a target that increasingly appears out of reach given the accelerating rate of change in climate uncertainties.\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eThese climatic shifts not only exacerbate socio-environmental crises but also generate profound economic and political ramifications, including higher frequency of disasters, a growing number of climate refugees, and the deepening of social inequalities, especially in the most vulnerable countries (Beck \\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR4\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2015\\u003c/span\\u003e; Artaxo 2020; Wen et al. 2023). As the IPCC (2021, p. 36) highlights, such transformations are creating a landscape of increasing vulnerability for various populations, further straining common resources and social structures. As detailed in the IPCC report (2021, p.26):\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eThe poorest regions of Africa, Latin America, and Asia have fewer opportunities for adaptation and, therefore, are the most vulnerable to changes in rainfall patterns, which cause droughts and floods. In other words, areas with higher poverty levels are even more susceptible to the adverse effects of climate change.\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eMexico is one such country which will experience a 4\\u0026ordm;C increase in temperature in the border region with the United States, and it is estimated that the rest of the country will experience a temperature rise between 2.5\\u0026ordm;C and 3.5\\u0026ordm;C (Estrada et al \\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR12\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2023\\u003c/span\\u003e). Regarding precipitation, an average reduction of between 5% and 10% is expected (i.e., approximately 22 mm/month less) (National Center for Environmental Information 2018). The data is alarming, as the most significant impacts primarily include exacerbated droughts, considering that about 67% of the country\\u0026rsquo;s area is arid or semi-arid, while only 33% have humid climatic characteristics. According to Hofste (2019), 15 of the country's 32 states are classified as extremely water scarce. Another identified trend is the increase in severe rainfall events, which have the potential to worsen the impacts of floods, landslides, and other disasters. According to the data from the report \\u003cem\\u003eImpacto Socioeconomicos de los Desastres\\u003c/em\\u003e, produced by the Centro Nacional de Prevenci\\u0026oacute;n de Desastres (Mexico 2023, p.6), it reveals that:\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eBetween 2000 and 2009, disasters in Mexico resulted in 4,551 deaths with estimated damages of US\\u003cspan\\u003e$\\u003c/span\\u003e 843\\u0026nbsp;million. In the series between 2010 and 2019, 5,677 deaths were recorded, and the estimated damage amounted to US\\u003cspan\\u003e$\\u003c/span\\u003e 20\\u0026nbsp;billion. Between 2020 and 2023, there were 2,467 deaths and US\\u003cspan\\u003e$\\u003c/span\\u003e 7\\u0026nbsp;billion in economic losses\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eThe state of Veracruz Ignacio de la Llave, located on the Gulf Coast of Mexico, was the second most impacted by hydrometeorological disasters in 2022 and 2023 (droughts, floods, hurricanes, and landslides). During this time, 41 deaths were recorded, along with approximately 1.9\\u0026nbsp;billion dollars in economic losses, accounting for 17% of the damages reported nationwide (Mexico 2022; 2023). The state also recorded 29% of landslide events in the country in 2023, ranking second in terms of fatalities (Mexico 2023, p. 12). In Veracruz, 3,848 areas vulnerable to flooding were identified, spread across 132 municipalities (Secretaria de Protecci\\u0026oacute;n Civil de Veracruz \\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR40\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2023\\u003c/span\\u003e). The MA of Xalapa stands out as the region with the highest number of vulnerable locations (94 areas) in disaster-prone areas within the state (Gobierno de Xalapa \\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR14\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2023\\u003c/span\\u003e).\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eThe problems faced by the MA of Xalapa are primarily related to irregular rainfall patterns, with frequent droughts that severely impact water supply in the region. According to the data from the Drought Monitor in Mexico (Mexico 2024), there was a drastic increase in the frequency of drought periods in the MA of Xalapa. Between 2003 and 2013, 57 drought episodes were recorded, of which 37 were classified as abnormally dry, 17 as moderate, two as severe, and one as extreme. Between 2014 and 2024, the number of drought periods surged to 107, with 70 abnormally dry events, 25 moderate, nine severe, and three extremes. This substantial increase highlights the intensification of water scarcity in the region, reflecting a concerning trend of worsening adverse climate conditions. Another major challenge is the occurrence of landslides, often associated with deforestation and inadequate urbanization in risky areas. An increase in the number of landslides was recorded, primarily in the municipality of Xalapa, which has thousands of people living in risk areas. Between 2019 and 2024, 10 deaths and hundreds of incidents were reported (Mexico 2024).\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eIn addition to climate change, anthropogenic factors are also influencing the increase in prolonged droughts, as well as exacerbating the impact of more intense rainfall. The accelerated process of deforestation, driven by the expansion of agriculture and livestock farming, along with inadequate sanitation infrastructure, especially the lack of high-quality piped drinking water, is intensifying local vulnerability to extreme weather events. These factors disproportionately affect the poorest populations with limited access to protective infrastructure, making them the most impacted by droughts, dry spells, floods, landslides, and erosion (IPCC 2021).\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eIn this context, the hypothesis is that the MA of Xalapa has experienced a significant increase in the average temperature and a variation in precipitation, with more intense droughts and more concentrated rainfall, reflecting the effects of global climate change and local anthropogenic impact. Furthermore, there are opportunities to combat climate change, particularly through organized social groups that work for the sustainability of their territories. Groups such as Guardianes del Agua and Terravida are actively seeking solutions and implementing actions (such as the Water Governance Agenda, reforestation projects, and environmental education) to mitigate the negative impacts of endogenous anthropogenic activities as well as climate change.Thus, the research question emerges: what are the climate trends, and how has the region prepared for the adverse effects of climate change?\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eThis study aims to analyze the challenges and opportunities facing the MA of Xalapa, Mexico, in the context of climate change. The relevance of this project stems from its association with the international cooperation project \\u0026ldquo;\\u003cem\\u003eScalar Challenges of Water Governance in Hydrosocial Territories in Brazil in the Context of Climate Change: A Comparative Study with Mexico, Portugal, and England\\u003c/em\\u003e\\u0026rdquo;. In addition to this introduction, the article is divided into three sections: i) methodological procedures; ii) results and discussion; and iii) final considerations.\\u003c/p\\u003e\"},{\"header\":\"2. Methodological Procedures\",\"content\":\"\\u003cp\\u003eThe mixed methodology adopted is characterized by qualitative and quantitative analysis, descriptive and exploratory, divided into two phases. The first phase aimed to identify the challenges posed by climate change, where simple linear regression was used to model the relationship between climate variables, such as temperature and precipitation, as well as bilinear interpolation to enhance the spatial visualization of climate data obtained from WorldClim (2021). The second phase aimed to identify opportunities for addressing climate change, which involved mapping the social groups interested in socio-environmental and climate management. Thus, a model of articulation between social groups and institutions was developed, with the collaboration of the Guardianes del Agua groups and the \\u003cem\\u003eGrupo de Investigaci\\u0026oacute;n Acci\\u0026oacute;n Socio-Ecol\\u0026oacute;gica\\u003c/em\\u003e (GIASE) of the Universidad Veracruzana in Xalapa. This process allowed for understanding the practices and challenges faced by the groups in water management and developing strategies to strengthen climate governance and improve responses to the impacts of climate change.\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cdiv id=\\\"Sec3\\\" class=\\\"Section2\\\"\\u003e \\u003ch2\\u003e2.1. Study Area\\u003c/h2\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eThe MA of Xalapa (Fig.\\u0026nbsp;\\u003cspan refid=\\\"Fig1\\\" class=\\\"InternalRef\\\"\\u003e1\\u003c/span\\u003e) consists of the city of Xalapa-Enriquez, and eight other municipalities in the state of Veracruz: Coatepec, Emiliano Zapata, Xico, Jilotepec, Banderilla, Rafael Lucio, Acajete and Tlalnelhuayocan. Founded in 1519 by Spanish immigrants, Xalapa had its status as the state capital restored in 1920. According to the 2020 Population and Housing Census conducted by Instituto Nacional de Estad\\u0026iacute;stica y Geografia (INEGI 2020), this metropolitan area has a population of 789,157 inhabitants, making it the twenty-sixth most populous city in Mexico and the second most populous in the state of Veracruz. The total area of the MA of Xalapa is 867 km\\u0026sup2;.\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e \\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eThe most populous municipality is Xalapa, with 443,063 inhabitants, followed by Coatepec with 93,911 inhabitants (INEGI 2020). The rivers that flow through the region are La Antigua, Sede\\u0026ntilde;o, Carneros, Sordo, Santiago, Zapotillo, Castillo, and Coapexpan. The region's hydrography also includes streams and springs such as Chiltoyac, \\u0026Aacute;nimas, Xallitic, Techacapan, and Tlalmecapan. It has a humid and varied climate, with temperatures that can reach a maximum of 34.3\\u0026deg;C and minimums ranging from 2 to 5\\u0026deg;C. The region is located on the eastern slopes of the Cofre de Perote (4,282 m), which results in irregular and highly sloped terrain. The highest elevation in the region is the Cerro de Macuilt\\u0026eacute;petl, which rises to 1,587 m. The city's elevation ranges from 1,250 m to 1,560 m, resulting in an average annual temperature of 18\\u0026deg;C and a humid temperate climate. The average annual rainfall is 1,464 mm (INEGI 2020).\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/div\\u003e \\u003cdiv id=\\\"Sec4\\\" class=\\\"Section2\\\"\\u003e \\u003ch2\\u003e2.2. Methods\\u003c/h2\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eSimple linear regression is one of the most used statistical tools to model the relationship between two quantitative variables. Its main objective is to describe, predict, or infer how a dependent variable (or response) is influenced by an independent variable (or predictor). This approach assumes that there is a linear relationship between the variables, expressed by Eq.\\u0026nbsp;(\\u003cspan refid=\\\"Equ1\\\" class=\\\"InternalRef\\\"\\u003e1\\u003c/span\\u003e):\\u003cdiv id=\\\"Equ1\\\" class=\\\"Equation\\\"\\u003e\\u003cdiv format=\\\"TEX\\\" class=\\\"mathdisplay\\\" id=\\\"FileID_Equ1\\\" name=\\\"EquationSource\\\"\\u003e\\n$$\\\\:y=\\\\beta\\\\:0+\\\\:{\\\\beta\\\\:}1\\\\text{X}+\\\\text{ϵ}$$\\u003c/div\\u003e\\u003cdiv class=\\\"EquationNumber\\\"\\u003e1\\u003c/div\\u003e\\u003c/div\\u003e\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eWhere Y represents the dependent variable, X the independent variable, β0 is the intercept, β1 is the slope coefficient (or slope) that measures the impact of X on Y, and ϵ is the error term that captures variations not explained by the model. In this way, positive slope coefficients indicate that as variable X increases, the variable Y tends to increase as well.\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eBilinear interpolation is a widely used technique in numerical analysis and image processing to estimate values on a two-dimensional grid. This approach is an extension of linear interpolation, applied sequentially in two directions, typically along the x and y axes. Given a grid of points with known values, bilinear interpolation calculates the value of an internal point by considering the values of the four nearest points that form a rectangle around the desired point. The method assumes that the variation of values is linear in each direction, resulting in the following formula:\\u003cdiv id=\\\"Equ2\\\" class=\\\"Equation\\\"\\u003e\\u003cdiv format=\\\"TEX\\\" class=\\\"mathdisplay\\\" id=\\\"FileID_Equ2\\\" name=\\\"EquationSource\\\"\\u003e\\n$$\\\\:f\\\\left(x,y\\\\right)=f00\\\\left(1-t\\\\right)\\\\left(1-\\\\mu\\\\:\\\\right)+f10t\\\\left(1-\\\\mu\\\\:\\\\right)+f01\\\\left(1-t\\\\right)+f11t\\\\mu\\\\:$$\\u003c/div\\u003e\\u003cdiv class=\\\"EquationNumber\\\"\\u003e2\\u003c/div\\u003e\\u003c/div\\u003e\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eWhere \\u003cspan class=\\\"InlineEquation\\\"\\u003e\\u003cspan class=\\\"mathinline\\\"\\u003e\\\\(\\\\:f\\\\)\\u003c/span\\u003e\\u003c/span\\u003e 00​, \\u003cspan class=\\\"InlineEquation\\\"\\u003e\\u003cspan class=\\\"mathinline\\\"\\u003e\\\\(\\\\:f\\\\)\\u003c/span\\u003e\\u003c/span\\u003e 10​, \\u003cspan class=\\\"InlineEquation\\\"\\u003e\\u003cspan class=\\\"mathinline\\\"\\u003e\\\\(\\\\:f\\\\)\\u003c/span\\u003e\\u003c/span\\u003e 01​, \\u003cspan class=\\\"InlineEquation\\\"\\u003e\\u003cspan class=\\\"mathinline\\\"\\u003e\\\\(\\\\:f\\\\)\\u003c/span\\u003e\\u003c/span\\u003e 11​ are the values at the vertices of the rectangle, and t and \\u0026micro; represent the relative displacements in the x and y directions, respectively.\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eBilinear interpolation is preferred in many cases due to its computational simplicity and the fact that it provides smooth transitions between values in the grid. It is widely used in applications such as image scaling, surface modeling, and numerical simulations involving data distributed in two dimensions. Despite its advantages, the method may have limitations in cases of abrupt data variations, where more advanced techniques might be necessary.\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eThe data used in the analyses were obtained from the WorldClim (2021) database, which provides global information on variables such as minimum temperature, maximum temperature, and precipitation in raster format. Each raster file represents a specific variable for a given month, covering the entire Earth's surface with a defined spatial resolution. For processing, the data were filtered and clipped using a shapefile corresponding to the study area. Then, the values of each pixel within the delimited area were extracted, and the monthly average of each variable was calculated, enabling a detailed analysis of the climatic behavior in the region.\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e \\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eTo study the temporal and spatial behavior of the variables, line graphs were generated, where the X-axis represents time from 1960 to 2020, and the Y-axis represents the monthly average of the variable. For better visualization of the behavior, a simple regression model was created to model the trend for each variable. The spatial maps generated represent the decadal average of each pixel in the raster, showing the average behavior of the variable across the territory for each decade. However, the original data have a minimum resolution of 2.5 arc minutes, with pixels corresponding to approximately 21 km\\u0026sup2;. This resolution is considered limited, especially when compared to the size of the study region. To overcome this limitation and enhance the spatial visualization of the data, the bilinear interpolation method was applied, generating a smoother and more continuous layer. This procedure not only improves the spatial representation of the variables but also facilitates the identification of patterns and trends in the analyzed area.\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eThe opportunity identification phase aimed to map in detail the social groups, institutions, and communities involved in territorial management in Xalapa, adopting a qualitative, exploratory, and participatory approach. The methodological process was divided into several stages to ensure a comprehensive understanding of the local dynamics of territorial management in the face of climate change.\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eFirst, a thorough exploration of the groups and institutions actively working on territorial management in Xalapa was conducted. This initial analysis focused on social movements, non-governmental organizations, community committees, academic groups, and other actors involved in the fight for territorial preservation. During this stage, a detailed historical timeline was created to map the evolution of these groups\\u0026rsquo; actions over time, highlighting significant milestones, major achievements, and the challenges faced in their struggle for territory through direct or indirect actions related to climate change.\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eThe second phase consisted of a comprehensive review of the existing academic literature, as well as the analysis of technical reports and official documents related to addressing climate change in the Xalapa region. This survey aimed to deepen the understanding of the methodologies used, water resource management practices, and decision-making processes involving different social actors. The review also helped identify key knowledge gaps and areas where the groups' actions could be improved.\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eBased on the analysis of the groups and existing practices, a model was developed for articulating the collaboration between social groups and institutions working in territorial management in the face of climate change. This model was developed with the active collaboration of the Guardianes del Agua group and the Grupo de Investiga\\u0026ccedil;\\u0026atilde;o A\\u0026ccedil;\\u0026atilde;o Socio-Ecol\\u0026oacute;gica (GIASE), both affiliated with the Universidad Veracruzana, located in Xalapa, Veracruz, Mexico. Through this model, the aim was to effectively structure communication and collaboration among the different stakeholders, with the goal of strengthening the collective and sustainable management of water resources.\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eThe research included active participation and direct involvement in 84 meetings, workshops, field incursions, and events organized by the partner groups, providing a deeper understanding of the social dynamics and decision-making processes influencing territorial management in relation to climate. During these activities, qualitative data were collected through observations and discussions with members of social groups, community leaders, and other participants. Data collection was crucial to understanding the practices adopted by the groups, the challenges they faced, and the strategies used to address issues related to water management.\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eIn the end, the results from the previous stages were integrated to form a comprehensive picture of the climate and territorial management situation in the Metropolitan Zone of Xalapa. The research resulted not only in a theoretical model but also in practical suggestions to improve interactions between the different groups and strengthen collaborative territorial governance, based on the experiences and challenges faced throughout the research.\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/div\\u003e\"},{\"header\":\"3. Results and Discussion\",\"content\":\"\\u003cdiv id=\\\"Sec6\\\" class=\\\"Section2\\\"\\u003e \\u003ch2\\u003e3.1. Challenges imposed by climate change in the Metropolitan Area of Xalapa\\u003c/h2\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eThe results show that both minimum and maximum temperatures have increased, closely approaching the limit established by the IPCC (2028). The analysis of the temperature series reveals a significant increase, especially starting from the 1990s.\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eThe minimum temperature series showed an increase over time, with the regression model generated for each monthly unit indicating that the average monthly minimum temperature tends to rise by 0.001238 degrees Celsius, resulting in a total increase of 1.24\\u0026deg;C between 1960 and 2020, with a projected trend to reach 1.61\\u0026deg;C by 2050. Minimum temperatures have increased in all the municipalities analyzed, with variations indicating a warming trend between the years 1960 and 2020. In Acajete, the range was 1.18\\u0026deg;C, while in Banderilla and Coatepec, the increase was 1.25\\u0026deg;C. Emiliano Zapata recorded a variation of 1.21\\u0026deg;C, and Jilotepec showed an increase of 1.33\\u0026deg;C. Rafael Lucio had the largest variation, with an increase of 1.42\\u0026deg;C. Tlalnelhuayocan and Xalapa also showed increases, with 1.25\\u0026deg;C and 1.24\\u0026deg;C, respectively. Finally, Xico had a variation of 1.31\\u0026deg;C.\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e \\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eThe regression model generated for each monthly unit indicated that the average monthly maximum temperature tends to increase by 0.002116 degrees Celsius, resulting in an increase of 1.31\\u0026deg;C between 1960 and 2020, with a projected trend to reach 1.95\\u0026deg;C by 2050. In Acajete, the maximum temperature increased by 1.28\\u0026deg;C, while in Banderilla, the increase was 1.25\\u0026deg;C. Coatepec recorded the largest increase, with 1.38\\u0026deg;C, followed by Emiliano Zapata, with an increase of 1.29\\u0026deg;C. In Jilotepec, the maximum temperature rose by 1.25\\u0026deg;C, and in Rafael Lucio, the increase was 1.42\\u0026deg;C, the highest among the municipalities. Tlalnelhuayocan saw an increase of 1.17\\u0026deg;C, while in Xalapa, the maximum temperature rose by 1.26\\u0026deg;C. Finally, in Xico, the maximum temperature increased by 1.43\\u0026deg;C, the largest recorded increase in the region. These data demonstrate a consistent rise in minimum temperatures across all municipalities, reflecting a possible trend of local warming. Figure\\u0026nbsp;\\u003cspan refid=\\\"Fig3\\\" class=\\\"InternalRef\\\"\\u003e3\\u003c/span\\u003e presents the graphs of the time series for minimum and maximum temperatures between 1960 and 2020.\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eFigure \\u003cspan refid=\\\"Fig4\\\" class=\\\"InternalRef\\\"\\u003e4\\u003c/span\\u003e presents data revealing an increase in both minimum and maximum temperatures in all the municipalities analyzed, comparing the periods of 1960\\u0026ndash;1969 with 2010\\u0026ndash;2020. In Acajete, the average minimum temperature increased from 7.37\\u0026deg;C to 9.13\\u0026deg;C. In Banderilla, the minimum rose from 12.42\\u0026deg;C to 14.08\\u0026deg;C, while the maximum also followed the increasing trend, rising from 12.72\\u0026deg;C to 14.53\\u0026deg;C. In Emiliano Zapata, the average minimum temperature went from 16.25\\u0026deg;C to 18.04\\u0026deg;C, reflecting a significant increase. In Jilotepec, the minimum temperature increased from 14.62\\u0026deg;C to 16.42\\u0026deg;C, and in Rafael Lucio, the minimum rose from 10.42\\u0026deg;C to 12.17\\u0026deg;C. In Tlalnelhuayocan, the average minimum temperature increased from 11.38\\u0026deg;C to 13.29\\u0026deg;C, while in Xalapa, the minimum went from 13.67\\u0026deg;C to 15.43\\u0026deg;C. Finally, in Xico, the minimum temperature rose from 8.51\\u0026deg;C to 10.39\\u0026deg;C, with the maximum also increasing in the same period, from 8.51\\u0026deg;C to 10.39\\u0026deg;C.\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e \\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eIn Acajete, the average maximum temperature increased from 17.58\\u0026deg;C to 19.98\\u0026deg;C. Banderilla recorded an increase from 22.08\\u0026deg;C to 24.50\\u0026deg;C, while in Coatepec, the average maximum temperature rose from 22.69\\u0026deg;C to 25.01\\u0026deg;C. In Emiliano Zapata, the average maximum temperature went up from 26.95\\u0026deg;C to 29.30\\u0026deg;C, reflecting a significant rise. In Jilotepec, the maximum temperature increased from 24.17\\u0026deg;C to 26.54\\u0026deg;C, and in Rafael Lucio, the temperature rose from 20.75\\u0026deg;C to 23.17\\u0026deg;C. Tlalnelhuayocan saw an increase from 21.62\\u0026deg;C to 24.04\\u0026deg;C, while in Xalapa, the average maximum temperature went from 23.69\\u0026deg;C to 26.12\\u0026deg;C. Finally, in Xico, the average maximum temperature rose from 18.97\\u0026deg;C to 21.40\\u0026deg;C.\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eThe precipitation series did not show a clear seasonality over time, with a coefficient very close to 0 and no significant impact given the magnitude of the variable. Precipitation follows a pattern of reduction, but the series points to periods of more intense rainfall. The regression model generated for each monthly unit indicated that the average monthly precipitation tends to decrease by 0.006468 millimeters. In this sense, the final average reduction was 19.4 mm of rainfall between 1960 and 2020. Although no significant temporal variation was observed, spatial maps revealed that the highest precipitation records tend to concentrate in the center of the region over the decades, specifically in the municipalities of Xalapa and Coatepec (the most populous), suggesting the hypothesis that there is some unidentified interference in the distribution of rainfall in the region.\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eBetween 1960 and 2020, there was a decrease in precipitation in all the municipalities of the MA of Xalapa analyzed. In Acajete, the decrease was 13.68 mm, while in Banderilla, precipitation decreased by 22.38 mm. Coatepec recorded a reduction of 18.53 mm, and Emiliano Zapata experienced the largest decrease, with 23.06 mm. In Jilotepec, the reduction was 22.23 mm, and in Rafael Lucio, precipitation decreased by 18.67 mm. Tlalnelhuayocan showed a drop of 19.43 mm, while in Xalapa, precipitation decreased by 22.43 mm. Finally, Xico recorded a reduction of 14.65 mm. These data indicate a general trend of decreasing precipitation in the region over the period analyzed.\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e \\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eAccording to studies by Bonacci et al. (\\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR5\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2024\\u003c/span\\u003e), Zhi et al. (\\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR49\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2023\\u003c/span\\u003e), and Woolway et al. (\\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR44\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2019\\u003c/span\\u003e), rivers and water sources are highly vulnerable to global warming, which can cause severe impacts on the dynamics of water bodies, affecting the quantity, quality, distribution, and aquatic fauna and flora, as well as impacting precipitation and evaporation cycles. In the MA of Xalapa, rising temperatures and reduced rainfall can affect the carrying capacity of the Rio La Antigua, the region's main water source, resulting in prolonged droughts. Moreover, warming could negatively affect aquatic species and alter the behavior of forests and wildlife, disrupting the local ecosystem. Biodiversity, particularly in higher-altitude areas, could be severely impacted, as increasing temperatures and reduced rainfall alter the habitats of native species, favoring those adapted to heat and dry climates, threatening the essential ecosystem services provided by species dependent on colder climates (Buckridge, Mortari and Machado 2007).\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eTemperature and precipitation variations may also affect agricultural cycles in the region, potentially reducing crop productivity and increasing vulnerability to pests and diseases (Duarte, \\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR11\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2023\\u003c/span\\u003e; Assad, \\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR2\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2021\\u003c/span\\u003e). In 2023, the highest international sales from the MA of Xalapa were Coffee (US\\u003cspan\\u003e$\\u003c/span\\u003e29.9\\u0026nbsp;million) and fresh or dried citrus fruits (US\\u003cspan\\u003e$\\u003c/span\\u003e4.52\\u0026nbsp;million) (Datamexico 2023). DaMatta et al. (\\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR10\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2019\\u003c/span\\u003e) state that although the effects of global warming on coffee may be less severe than previously thought, there is still a risk that this phenomenon could affect local productivity.\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eAnother issue that may affect the region is the demand for electricity, which is influenced by climate change. First, changes in precipitation and temperature impact hydropower production through changes in water flow (Golombek et al. \\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR15\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2012\\u003c/span\\u003e). Second, the efficiency of thermal plants decreases due to higher water temperatures used for cooling, thus using more fuel and exacerbating greenhouse gas emissions (Golombek et al. \\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR15\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2012\\u003c/span\\u003e; Rubio and Del Valle \\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR39\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2024\\u003c/span\\u003e). However, Mexico, facing the need to increase its electricity production, has been investing in building hydropower and thermoelectric plants. Nonetheless, a hydropower project near the region has sparked protests and tensions between local communities, social groups, businesses, and the government (Guardianes del Agua \\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR16\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2023\\u003c/span\\u003e). The trend of rising temperatures and reduced rainfall could further aggravate these tensions, as sustaining this economic growth pattern will require the construction of energy infrastructure, leading to significant socio-environmental impacts.\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eThe reduction in rainfall frequency, combined with the increase in the intensity and unpredictability of precipitation, has deep and diverse impacts on the region's quality of life. The decrease in frequent rain compromises the recharge of aquifers, rivers, and reservoirs, impairing water availability for human consumption (Steffen et al., 2015). With the rise of droughts and the increasingly uneven distribution of water, the population faces long periods without supply. Between March and October 2023, the municipalities of Xalapa, Banderilla and Coatepec recorded 12 intense protests, with the closure of major roads due to water scarcity (Diario de Xalapa \\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR13\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2023\\u003c/span\\u003e). The protests were motivated by the insufficient infrastructure for water supply and storage, unable to meet the growing demand from the population. The most critical cases occurred in the Casa Blanca and Higueras neighborhoods in the municipality of Xalapa, in the Murillo Vidal Expansion, where residents went without water for nearly a month. Neighborhoods in the municipality of Banderilla went without water for up to 2 months. Prolonged droughts could force migrations, as seen in Brazil's Semi-Arid region, where millions moved to other areas, increasing pressure on these places (Nascimento \\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR31\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2024\\u003c/span\\u003e; Burnett et al. \\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR7\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2021\\u003c/span\\u003e).\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eAccording to Limaye (\\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR25\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2021\\u003c/span\\u003e), health problems caused by climate change are growing drastically. In the case of the MA of Xalapa, being a highly humid region, climate change could worsen respiratory and cardiovascular diseases due to rising temperatures and air pollution, as well as alter the spread of vector-borne infectious diseases like malaria and dengue.\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eThough less frequent, more intense and unpredictable rains are increasing the risk of floods and landslides in the region. The recurrence of disasters in the area may be linked to the growing concentration of people and urban facilities located in risk zones, along with an increase in social vulnerability. Between 2019 and 2023, 10 people lost their lives due to landslides and sudden floods in Xalapa. On April 9, 2024, a landslide killed three people from the same family in Xalapa. According to the \\u003cem\\u003eAtlas de Riesgo de Xalapa\\u003c/em\\u003e (2024), the intensification of severe rains may mainly affect the most vulnerable areas, such as the Dolores Hidalgo, Ampliaci\\u0026oacute;n Luis Donaldo Colosio, Veracruz, Plan de Ayala, Xalapa 2000, and Nuevo Xalapa neighborhoods. These areas are highly vulnerable to disasters, particularly landslides, and have populations with insufficient financial resources to protect and recover.\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eIn summary, climate change in the MA of Xalapa has significant implications for the region, affecting the dynamics of water bodies, biodiversity, agriculture, energy infrastructure, and public health. Rising temperatures and reduced rainfall directly impact water availability and agricultural productivity while increasing the risks of disasters such as floods and landslides. Water scarcity, coupled with insufficient infrastructure, has led to social tensions, as demonstrated by protests. In conclusion, pressure and disputes over access to water are a growing reality that intensify with rising temperatures and decreasing rainfall frequency.\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/div\\u003e \\u003cdiv id=\\\"Sec7\\\" class=\\\"Section2\\\"\\u003e \\u003ch2\\u003e3.2. Opportunities to address the impacts of climate change in the Metropolitan Area of Xalapa\\u003c/h2\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eMexico has a tradition of social resistance, which is most robustly manifested in the management of water resources (Pe\\u0026ntilde;a, Vargas and Romero \\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR34\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2013\\u003c/span\\u003e). Various community organizations, collectives, and social movements play an active role in defending water-climate issues and advocating for a more horizontal and participatory management approach. Another important aspect is the diversity and interconnectedness of the groups working for the territory in Mexico. There is a wide range of social actors, from indigenous groups to non-governmental organizations, who collaborate in networks to address common challenges (Nem\\u0026eacute;cio \\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR33\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2021\\u003c/span\\u003e).\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eNational endogenous projects also threaten the coordination of these groups. Changes to the national water law (\\u003cem\\u003eLey de Aguas Nacionales\\u003c/em\\u003e) (Mexico 1992) in 2006 allowed the concession of services to private companies, resulting in significant increases in tariffs in several cities. Decrees issued on June 5, 2018, by the Pe\\u0026ntilde;a Nieto government aimed to eliminate protection for large watersheds that were under restriction, where water extraction was limited. With this change, these areas were reclassified as reserve zones, allowing limited exploitation of common goods by private companies, should authorities deem it \\\"of public utility\\\" (Zarco \\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR48\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2020\\u003c/span\\u003e).\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eHowever, President L\\u0026oacute;pez Obrador\\u0026rsquo;s administration implemented an austerity policy that led to a reduction in environmental management resources to finance megaprojects such as an oil refinery on the Gulf Coast and the Maya Train (M\\u0026eacute;ndez and Romero \\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR26\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2024\\u003c/span\\u003e). This prioritization of megaprojects raises concerns about the country's sustainability and climate security. Experts argue that the reduction in investments in environmental policies and the lack of climate management are compromising the country\\u0026rsquo;s ability to face challenges such as water scarcity and pollution (Zarco \\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR48\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2020\\u003c/span\\u003e).\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eA proposal for a new water law in Mexico seeks to replace the current national water law, which has been criticized for its market-driven approach and its failure to consider human rights, equitable access, and the issues of climate change (Barrag\\u0026aacute;n \\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR3\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2020\\u003c/span\\u003e). The current law treats water as an economically valuable resource, prioritizing its concession to private and industrial interests, which has led to inadequate management and the marginalization of local and indigenous communities. In many cases, these communities are excluded from decision-making about water use in their territories (Armenta \\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR1\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2023\\u003c/span\\u003e). Among the criticisms of the \\u003cem\\u003eLey de Aguas Nacionales\\u003c/em\\u003e are the lack of mechanisms to ensure protection against over-exploitation (Jacobo-Marin 2020).\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eAccording to the \\\"\\u003cem\\u003eAgua para Todos, Agua para la Vida\\u003c/em\\u003e\\\" initiative (2018) and Barrag\\u0026aacute;n (\\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR3\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2020\\u003c/span\\u003e), the new law should address key points, such as recognizing the human right to water as central, managing water cycles through nonprofit local systems, recognizing rights for indigenous peoples and agrarian nuclei without granting concessions, implementing hydraulic works only those agreed upon in Master Plans with community participation, ensuring citizen participation through assemblies and binding councils, creating plans to eradicate pollution and penalize polluters, combating over-exploitation with reduced concessions in over-exploited basins, subordinating mining and fracking to other activities, and combating impunity.\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eIn the MA of Xalapa, the main challenges are related to hydrological issues and sanitation infrastructure, such as recurring drought episodes and lack of access to water. In this context, local communities have a history of struggle and resistance, involving actions that have united various actors and created support networks to protect the territory from these threats, both anthropogenic and climatic. The coordination of these groups represents a key potential in addressing the impacts of anthropogenic actions and climate change in the region. The Fig.\\u0026nbsp;\\u003cspan refid=\\\"Fig6\\\" class=\\\"InternalRef\\\"\\u003e6\\u003c/span\\u003e. Shows a timeline of the establishment of social groups in the Xalapa Metropolitan Zone.\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e \\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eThe Red de Informaci\\u0026oacute;n y Acci\\u0026oacute;n Ambiental de Veracruz (RIAAVER) was created in 1990 by a group of citizens and academics concerned with socio-environmental issues in the state of Veracruz, with the goal of promoting more sustainable societies. In its early years, RIAAVER connected with other national environmental organizations, contributing to the agenda of the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro in 1992. In 1994, the \\u003cem\\u003eAsociaci\\u0026oacute;n de Desarrollo Sustentable del R\\u0026iacute;o Sede\\u0026ntilde;o\\u003c/em\\u003e was founded, focusing on preserving the river and the Sede\\u0026ntilde;o Linear Park, promoting environmental management practices and agroecology. In 1999, Sendas AC was formed to work in territorial management and watersheds, emphasizing environmental awareness and education.\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eThe \\u003cem\\u003eAsociaci\\u0026oacute;n de Vecinos del Rio\\u003c/em\\u003e Pixquiac-Zoncuantla and the 400 Arboles, established in 2005, worked to demarcate the Federal Zone of the Pixquiac River and encourage the recovery of public space, eventually calling this initiative the \\\"Heart of Zoncuantla\\\". Their work focused on the ecological conservation of the Pixquiac River\\u0026rsquo;s surroundings. In 2005, Global Water Watch Mexico began training community monitors to monitor water quality and influence public policies. In 2006, the Pixquiac River Basin Committee was formed to promote the management of common goods with a focus on community participation.\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eIn 2010, the \\u003cem\\u003ePueblos Unidos da Cuenca Antigua pelos Rios Libres\\u003c/em\\u003e was created to defend the rights of communities that would be affected by the dam planned by the Brazilian company Odebrecht with the collaboration of Mexican authorities in this basin. In 2011, INANA AC was established with the goal of developing projects aimed at health, forest conservation and water preservation.\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eIn 2015, the \\u003cem\\u003eArchipi\\u0026eacute;lago de Bosques y Selvas de Xalapa\\u003c/em\\u003e was created as a Protected Natural Area to preserve valuable ecosystems around the city of Xalapa. Consequently, the \\u003cem\\u003eRed de Custodios was\\u003c/em\\u003e founded in 2015, based on the premise that the effectiveness of a Protected Natural Area would require territorial management with community participation and active citizen engagement, both in the delineated protected areas and increasingly in the entire metropolitan area (rural and urban). In 2017, RedForesta emerged as an initiative from INANA AC and the \\u003cem\\u003eRed de Custodios\\u003c/em\\u003e of the Archipelago for landscape restoration, aiming to care for ecosystems around Xalapa through collaborative learning and network-based action.\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eIn 2018, the Integrated Water Resources Management Strategy for Xalapa was developed, with various organizations coming together to formulate it in collaboration with the municipal government, with a perspective for decades to come. After this event, the Guardianes del Agua emerged as a commission of the \\u003cem\\u003eRed de Custodios del Archipi\\u0026eacute;lago de Bosques y Selvas de Xalapa\\u003c/em\\u003e, gradually consolidating as its own network, integrating the previously mentioned organizations. This network has been working to coordinate actions for the defense of water-climate and water bodies in the region, using strategies to generate social, community, and citizen participation.\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eAmong the institutions focused on water and climate management, the Universidad Veracruzana plays an active role in researching effective water management practices, collaborating with groups such as the \\u003cem\\u003eGrupo de Investigaci\\u0026oacute;n Acci\\u0026oacute;n Socioambiental\\u003c/em\\u003e (GIASE) and the \\u003cem\\u003eCentro de EcoAlfabetizaci\\u0026oacute;n y Di\\u0026aacute;logo de Saberes\\u003c/em\\u003e (ECODIALOGO). These initiatives, in partnership with organizations like the \\u003cem\\u003eCentro Comunitario de Tradiciones, Saberes y Oficios de Chiltoyac\\u003c/em\\u003e (CECOMU) and the \\u003cem\\u003eCentro de Investigaci\\u0026oacute;n Tropical\\u003c/em\\u003e (CITRO), aim to promote sustainable practices and facilitate dialogue between local knowledge and scientific expertise. The Institute of Ecology (INECOL), founded in 1980, also contributes to research on biodiversity conservation and the management of common goods in Mexico.\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e \\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eAll these institutions have coordinated efforts to defend the territory from the encroachment of endogenous projects affecting water-climate management. These organizations and communities, together with Guardianes del Agua, aim to influence the formulation of water-climate policies. In 2021, this collaboration resulted in the \\\"Citizen Agenda for Water in Xalapa,\\\" aimed at ensuring the long-term sustainability of water, climate, and water ecosystems. Shortly after, the Guardians del Agua collaborated in formulating the National Research and Advocacy Project (PRONAII), titled \\\"Strengthening and Coordination of Collective Subjects for the Defense and Management of Water in the Territory,\\\" involving grassroots organizations, citizens, and academics from six states of the Mexican Republic (Fig.\\u0026nbsp;\\u003cspan refid=\\\"Fig7\\\" class=\\\"InternalRef\\\"\\u003e7\\u003c/span\\u003e).\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eRegarding the actions of these groups, one can identify that their efforts have focused on capturing and making visible information about socio-hydric and environmental impacts. Contributions from universities have also been channeled, and support from academics, educational programs, and students through social service has been mobilized to meet the information needs of the mobilized collectives. The integration of local knowledge with scientific knowledge enhances the construction of effective climate management strategies.\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eThe collective and community mobilization in defense of water and the environment, as discussed, demonstrates considerable organizational capacity, serving as a foundation for future actions and promoting active participation in decisions about water resources. The formation of collaborative networks between different groups allows the exchange of information and the joint implementation of actions, strengthening local resistance. Environmental education initiatives carried out in territory have empowered citizens, generating a positive impact on territorial management. In this context, it is possible to identify several potentialities of this governance model (Table\\u0026nbsp;\\u003cspan refid=\\\"Tab1\\\" class=\\\"InternalRef\\\"\\u003e1\\u003c/span\\u003e):\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e \\u003cdiv class=\\\"gridtable\\\"\\u003e\\u003ctable float=\\\"Yes\\\" id=\\\"Tab1\\\" border=\\\"1\\\"\\u003e \\u003ccaption language=\\\"En\\\"\\u003e \\u003cdiv class=\\\"CaptionNumber\\\"\\u003eTable 1\\u003c/div\\u003e \\u003cdiv class=\\\"CaptionContent\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003ePotentialities of the Xalapan Model of Territory Governance\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/div\\u003e \\u003c/caption\\u003e \\u003ccolgroup cols=\\\"2\\\"\\u003e \\u003cdiv align=\\\"left\\\" class=\\\"colspec\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\" colnum=\\\"1\\\"\\u003e\\u003c/div\\u003e \\u003cdiv align=\\\"left\\\" class=\\\"colspec\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\" colnum=\\\"2\\\"\\u003e\\u003c/div\\u003e \\u003cthead\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003cth align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eElements\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/th\\u003e \\u003cth align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eDescription\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/th\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003c/thead\\u003e \\u003ctbody\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eCommunity Mobilization\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eThe mobilization of communities around the defense of territtory and the environment demonstrates social organizational capacity. This mobilization represents a foundation for the consolidation of actions and initiatives that affect decision-making.\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eCollaborative Networks\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eThe various civil organizations and collectives formed in the region show the importance of collaboration between different social actors. The networks facilitate the exchange of information, resources, and experiences, strengthening the capacity for resistance and the implementation of joint actions.\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eEnvironmental Education and Training\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eThe environmental awareness and education initiatives promoted by groups like Global Water Watch and other associations are essential for empowering communities. The formation of informed and engaged citizens has had a positive impact on territory management and environmental conservation.\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eCommunity Management\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eThe appreciation of community-based water management, as demonstrated by the actions of the Civil Association Sustainable Development of the Sede\\u0026ntilde;o River and others, can serve as a model for other regions.\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eIntegration of Local and Scientific Knowledge\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eThe collaboration between universities, research centers, and local communities, as seen in partnerships with the Universidad Veracruzana and INECOL, enhances the development of strategies that consider both traditional knowledge and modern science.\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eInnovation in Sustainable Practices\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eThe implementation of agroecological practices and the promotion of sustainable alternatives, as demonstrated by Sendas AC and RedForesta, have the potential to improve the quality of life of communities and restore degraded ecosystems.\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003ctr\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c1\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eCollective Action and Public Policy Articulation\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003ctd align=\\\"left\\\" colname=\\\"c2\\\"\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eCampaigns like \\\"Agua Pasa Por Mi Casa\\\" and the Citizen Agenda for Water demonstrate the mobilization and awareness capacity of the population. The articulation between different groups and the pursuit of public policies (Guardianes del Agua and Pronaii) address local socio-hydric demands. These initiatives can inspire similar actions in other regions and act as a \\\"Doppler effect.\\\"\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/td\\u003e \\u003c/tr\\u003e \\u003c/tbody\\u003e \\u003c/colgroup\\u003e \\u003c/table\\u003e\\u003c/div\\u003e \\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eFrom an organizational standpoint, the goal is for those affected by environmental issues to take action, generating information, mobilizing, and promoting initiatives, while establishing links with regional and local movements. Regarding actions in territories and ecosystems, the aim is for the information to translate into concrete actions that contribute to the design of strategies for the care, defense, and restoration of rivers and microbasins. Finally, in terms of political influence and citizenship in water governance, access to up-to-date information has been crucial to strengthen the defense of the territory.However, there are still many challenges, such as the absence of effective communication channels that hinder dialogue between community groups and government institutions. The interests of different social actors are often contradictory, creating difficulties in coordination. Often, these groups lack financial resources, making it difficult to implement joint actions. The establishment of effective mechanisms to monitor and assess the impact of policies and actions is often neglected due to the lack of resources. Therefore, the following suggestions stand out for strengthening resilience against climate emergencies:\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e \\u003col\\u003e \\u003cspan\\u003e \\u003cli\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eIncrease the capacity to resist and absorb impacts by implementing safety structures adapted to the local physical environment: universalize basic sanitation, monitor and prevent new occupations in risk areas, and renaturalize watercourses, mangroves, and coastal areas. Forest and riparian vegetation recovery should also be prioritized, as well as implementing small-scale sponge city concepts. It is also necessary to invest in an urban infrastructure for rainwater harvesting.\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/li\\u003e \\u003c/span\\u003e \\u003cspan\\u003e \\u003cli\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eDevelop a participatory climate action plan that focuses on reducing the risks of droughts and landslides: focus on reducing socio-spatial inequalities, prevent the increased exposure of people and infrastructure in risk areas, and, fundamentally, curb the progression of real estate speculation in the region.\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/li\\u003e \\u003c/span\\u003e \\u003cspan\\u003e \\u003cli\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eEncourage the creation of community support networks in risk areas: map networks of neighbors, social organizations, NGOs, and associations of merchants and business owners. This collaborative approach aims to contribute at the local level, promoting solidarity and the exchange of information among community members, in addition to facilitating mobilization and organization during emergencies.\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/li\\u003e \\u003c/span\\u003e \\u003cspan\\u003e \\u003cli\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eExpand programs with communities in a transdisciplinary manner to understand the environment in which they live: encourage the population to learn about environmental risk signs and government alert systems through the promotion of awareness programs, training, and simulations that teach how to identify these signs and use available alert systems.\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/li\\u003e \\u003c/span\\u003e \\u003cspan\\u003e \\u003cli\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eImplement more efficient agricultural models, such as agroecology: promote sustainable agricultural practices, such as agroecology, that minimize water use and avoid the use of pesticides. Consider local traditional knowledge and practices to improve soil and water management systems.\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/li\\u003e \\u003c/span\\u003e \\u003c/ol\\u003e \\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eFinally, the continuity of actions and the commitment of local actors is one of the greatest potentialities found in the case of the MA of Xalapa, as it opens spaces for communal action capable of resisting and re-existing against a dominant system that deteriorates life. Therefore, overcoming these issues goes beyond a simple technical or subjective matter; it requires a profound transformation in the way we approach development. This demands a significant commitment to structural changes aimed at building more robust societies that are adaptable to emerging socio-environmental challenges. Advancing towards resilience to disasters emerges as a key factor in strengthening regions against climate change, but its progress is challenging due to the need for a fundamental shift in the development paradigm.\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/div\\u003e\"},{\"header\":\"4. Conclusion\",\"content\":\"\\u003cp\\u003eSince the 1960s, the MA of Xalapa has experienced a significant increase in both minimum and maximum temperatures, which has caused adverse climatic effects in the region. This warming is close to surpassing the projections of the IPCC, with negative impacts on ecosystems, agriculture, health, and water resources. Higher temperatures increase the risk of prolonged droughts and changes in precipitation patterns, with more intense and less frequent rainfall. This climate pattern has put greater pressure on water supply systems, due to reduced frequent rainfall and increased water demand caused by population growth and urban expansion. In summary, the MA of Xalapa faces increased water pressure and growing vulnerability to extreme climate events, highlighting the urgent need to adopt adaptation and risk management measures to mitigate the effects of climate change.\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eThe research used climatic data from WorldClim (2021) and applied bilinear interpolation and simple linear regression methods to analyze the temporal and spatial trends of climate variables. Although it provided a comprehensive view of the climatic behavior in the region, the research had limitations, such as the spatial resolution of the data, which may not be sufficient for smaller areas or those with significant climatic variability. Furthermore, the use of simple linear regression may not adequately reflect non-linear variations, and the qualitative approach used to map the social groups involved in water management may have introduced biases, as it focused on a limited sample of participants. The replication of this research can be carried out anywhere in the world, adapting to local climatic, social, and environmental characteristics. The next steps include studying Brazilian cases that are part of the international cooperation project, such as the Vale do Itaja\\u0026iacute; (Santa Catarina), Cariri Paraibano, and the state of Tocantins. Analyzing these experiences will allow for comparisons of water management practices, identification of good practices, and adaptive strategies that can be applied in Xalapa and other locations.\\u003c/p\\u003e\"},{\"header\":\"Declarations\",\"content\":\"\\u003cp\\u003e\\u003cstrong\\u003eAcknowledgments\\u003c/strong\\u003e\\u003c/p\\u003e\\n\\u003cp\\u003eThe authors thank the National Council for Scientific and Technological Development (CNPq) for the financial support.\\u003c/p\\u003e\\n\\u003cp\\u003e\\u003cstrong\\u003eAuthor Declarations\\u003c/strong\\u003e\\u003c/p\\u003e\\n\\u003cp\\u003e\\u003cstrong\\u003eFunding\\u003c/strong\\u003e\\u003c/p\\u003e\\n\\u003cp\\u003eThis work was supported by\\u0026nbsp;National Council for Scientific and Technological Development (CNPq) under Grant Agreement No. 441757/2023-5. Dr. Bruno Jandir Mello has received research support from the National Council for Scientific and Technological Development (CNPq) for a postdoctoral fellowship abroad.\\u003c/p\\u003e\\n\\u003cp\\u003e\\u003cstrong\\u003eConflicts of interest/Competing interests\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/strong\\u003e\\u003c/p\\u003e\\n\\u003cp\\u003eThe authors declare that the authors have no competing interests as defined by Springer, or other interests that might be perceived to influence the results and/or discussion reported in this paper.\\u003c/p\\u003e\\n\\u003cp\\u003e\\u003cstrong\\u003eEthics Approval\\u003c/strong\\u003e\\u003c/p\\u003e\\n\\u003cp\\u003eNot applicable.\\u003c/p\\u003e\\n\\u003cp\\u003e\\u003cstrong\\u003eFunding\\u003c/strong\\u003e\\u003c/p\\u003e\\n\\u003cp\\u003eThis work was supported by\\u0026nbsp;National Council for Scientific and Technological Development (CNPq) under Grant Agreement No. 441757/2023-5. Dr. Bruno Jandir Mello has received research support from the National Council for Scientific and Technological Development (CNPq) for a postdoctoral fellowship abroad.\\u003c/p\\u003e\\n\\u003cp\\u003e\\u003cstrong\\u003eConsent for Publication\\u003c/strong\\u003e\\u003c/p\\u003e\\n\\u003cp\\u003eThe authors declare that they reviewed and approved the final text and consent to the publication of this manuscript.\\u003c/p\\u003e\\n\\u003cp\\u003e\\u003cstrong\\u003eConsent to participate\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/strong\\u003e\\u003c/p\\u003e\\n\\u003cp\\u003eThe authors declare that they consent to participate in the publication process of this manuscript.\\u003c/p\\u003e\\n\\u003cp\\u003e\\u003cstrong\\u003eAvailability of data and material/ Data availability\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/strong\\u003e\\u003c/p\\u003e\\n\\u003cp\\u003eThe main datasets used were from Worldclim (2023). Available at: https://worldclim.org/data/index.html#google_vignette\\u003c/p\\u003e\\n\\u003cp\\u003eThe analyses were performed in R Software, the code lines and scripts and the shapefiles are available are available in Supplementary Material.\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/p\\u003e\\n\\u003cp\\u003eURL: https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1Rl-RrAIVbvtsOL0qtSxTT77JZUX_Rq8V?usp=sharing\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/p\\u003e\\n\\u003cp\\u003e\\u003cstrong\\u003eCode availability\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/strong\\u003e\\u003c/p\\u003e\\n\\u003cp\\u003eNot applicable.\\u003c/p\\u003e\\n\\u003cp\\u003e\\u003cstrong\\u003eAuthor Contributions\\u003c/strong\\u003e\\u003c/p\\u003e\\n\\u003cp\\u003eThe authors declare that contributed to the study conception and design. All authors commented on previous versions of the manuscript. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.\\u003c/p\\u003e\\n\\u003cp\\u003eBJ, Mello. First draft, material preparation, writing of the text, data collection, data analysis, results, discussion, and supervision.\\u003c/p\\u003e\\n\\u003cp\\u003eCMM, Souza, Review, supervision, and translation.\\u003c/p\\u003e\\n\\u003cp\\u003eJIAO., Silva. Review, supervision, and translation.\\u003c/p\\u003e\\n\\u003cp\\u003eN, Bhattacharya-Mis. Review, supervision, and translation.\\u003c/p\\u003e\\n\\u003cp\\u003eK, Kantamaneni. Review and translation.\\u003c/p\\u003e\\n\\u003cp\\u003eAMR, Cavalcanti. Review and supervision.\\u003c/p\\u003e\\n\\u003cp\\u003eSMMCCS, Nemetz. Review and translation.\\u003c/p\\u003e\\n\\u003cp\\u003eAS, Lima Neto. Data collection.\\u003c/p\\u003e\\n\\u003cp\\u003eJ, Mer\\u0026ccedil;on. Data collection and Review.\\u003c/p\\u003e\\n\\u003cp\\u003eGA, Frenk. Data collection and Review.\\u003c/p\\u003e\\n\\u003cp\\u003eBT, Berestain. 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IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland. \\u003cspan class=\\\"ExternalRef\\\"\\u003e\\u003cspan class=\\\"RefSource\\\"\\u003e10.59327/IPCC/AR69789291691647.001\\u003c/span\\u003e\\u003cspan address=\\\"10.59327/IPCC/AR69789291691647.001\\\" targettype=\\\"DOI\\\" class=\\\"RefTarget\\\"\\u003e\\u003c/span\\u003e\\u003c/span\\u003e\\u003c/span\\u003e\\u003c/li\\u003e \\u003cli\\u003e\\u003cspan\\u003eJacobo-Mar\\u0026iacute;n D (2020) Pol\\u0026iacute;tica h\\u0026iacute;drica, propiedad nacional y derechos de agua en M\\u0026eacute;xico: una lectura hist\\u0026oacute;rico-jur\\u0026iacute;dica cr\\u0026iacute;tica. 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Nat Clim Chang 13:1105\\u0026ndash;1113. \\u003cspan class=\\\"ExternalRef\\\"\\u003e\\u003cspan class=\\\"RefSource\\\"\\u003ehttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-023-01793-3\\u003c/span\\u003e\\u003cspan address=\\\"10.1038/s41558-023-01793-3\\\" targettype=\\\"DOI\\\" class=\\\"RefTarget\\\"\\u003e\\u003c/span\\u003e\\u003c/span\\u003e\\u003c/span\\u003e\\u003c/li\\u003e\\u003c/ol\\u003e\"}],\"fulltextSource\":\"\",\"fullText\":\"\",\"funders\":[],\"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow\":false,\"hasManuscriptDocX\":true,\"hasOptedInToPreprint\":true,\"hasPassedJournalQc\":\"\",\"hasAnyPriority\":false,\"hideJournal\":false,\"highlight\":\"\",\"institution\":\"\",\"isAcceptedByJournal\":false,\"isAuthorSuppliedPdf\":false,\"isDeskRejected\":\"\",\"isHiddenFromSearch\":false,\"isInQc\":false,\"isInWorkflow\":false,\"isPdf\":false,\"isPdfUpToDate\":true,\"isWithdrawnOrRetracted\":false,\"journal\":{\"display\":true,\"email\":\"info@researchsquare.com\",\"identity\":\"theoretical-and-applied-climatology\",\"isNatureJournal\":false,\"hasQc\":true,\"allowDirectSubmit\":false,\"externalIdentity\":\"taac\",\"sideBox\":\"Learn more about [Theoretical and Applied Climatology](https://www.springer.com/journal/704)\",\"snPcode\":\"704\",\"submissionUrl\":\"https://submission.nature.com/new-submission/704/3\",\"title\":\"Theoretical and Applied Climatology\",\"twitterHandle\":\"\",\"acdcEnabled\":true,\"dfaEnabled\":true,\"editorialSystem\":\"em\",\"reportingPortfolio\":\"Springer Hybrid\",\"inReviewEnabled\":true,\"inReviewRevisionsEnabled\":false},\"keywords\":\"Climate Change, Global Warming, Climate Governance, Resilience, Social Groups\",\"lastPublishedDoi\":\"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6497889/v1\",\"lastPublishedDoiUrl\":\"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6497889/v1\",\"license\":{\"name\":\"CC BY 4.0\",\"url\":\"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/\"},\"manuscriptAbstract\":\"\\u003cp\\u003eThis study aims to analyze the challenges and opportunities faced by the Metropolitan Area (MA) of Xalapa, M\\u0026eacute;xico, in the context of climate uncertainties. The methodology was divided into two phases: the first involved analyzing variations in temperature and precipitation patterns from 1960 to 2020, using historical climate data sourced from the WorldClim platform, processed with R statistical software and Geographic Information Systems (GIS). Through time series analysis and linear regression modeling, the study identified key climate variability patterns. The second phase mapped and examined social groups and their respective actions to mitigate the impacts of climate change, thus formulating climate action strategies. The results indicate an increase of 1.24\\u0026deg;C in minimum temperatures and 1.31\\u0026deg;C in maximum temperatures between 1960 and 2020. In addition, a decrease in precipitation frequency was observed, resulting in a reduction of 19.4 mm in the analyzed period. However, the region has experienced more intense precipitation events, with the pattern of rainfall becoming more concentrated in the more populous areas. These shifting climate patterns could present significant challenges, including increased pressure on water supply systems due to prolonged droughts, negative impacts on agriculture, and a growing need for investments in disaster risk management. The study also highlights opportunities to implement adaptive measures to mitigate the adverse effects of global warming, supported by a participatory governance model that has historically been established in the region.\\u003c/p\\u003e\",\"manuscriptTitle\":\"Socio-environmental impacts of climate change in the Metropolitan Area of Xalapa, Mexico: challenges and opportunities\",\"msid\":\"\",\"msnumber\":\"\",\"nonDraftVersions\":[{\"code\":1,\"date\":\"2025-05-08 18:06:34\",\"doi\":\"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6497889/v1\",\"editorialEvents\":[{\"type\":\"communityComments\",\"content\":0},{\"type\":\"decision\",\"content\":\"Revision requested\",\"date\":\"2026-05-02T20:43:59+00:00\",\"index\":\"\",\"fulltext\":\"\"},{\"type\":\"editorInvitedReview\",\"content\":\"\",\"date\":\"2026-05-01T23:32:10+00:00\",\"index\":\"hide\",\"fulltext\":\"\"},{\"type\":\"editorInvitedReview\",\"content\":\"\",\"date\":\"2025-10-16T02:35:15+00:00\",\"index\":\"hide\",\"fulltext\":\"\"},{\"type\":\"reviewerAgreed\",\"content\":\"202565009452861199075931471928553488114\",\"date\":\"2025-09-27T00:04:47+00:00\",\"index\":\"hide\",\"fulltext\":\"\"},{\"type\":\"reviewerAgreed\",\"content\":\"147098972404709880005653964423530516035\",\"date\":\"2025-09-26T22:44:45+00:00\",\"index\":\"hide\",\"fulltext\":\"\"},{\"type\":\"reviewerAgreed\",\"content\":\"66383023372521218909173854819717597801\",\"date\":\"2025-07-05T17:47:05+00:00\",\"index\":\"hide\",\"fulltext\":\"\"},{\"type\":\"reviewersInvited\",\"content\":\"\",\"date\":\"2025-05-05T06:21:32+00:00\",\"index\":\"\",\"fulltext\":\"\"},{\"type\":\"editorAssigned\",\"content\":\"\",\"date\":\"2025-04-23T07:16:33+00:00\",\"index\":\"\",\"fulltext\":\"\"},{\"type\":\"checksComplete\",\"content\":\"\",\"date\":\"2025-04-23T07:14:27+00:00\",\"index\":\"\",\"fulltext\":\"\"},{\"type\":\"submitted\",\"content\":\"Theoretical and Applied Climatology\",\"date\":\"2025-04-21T17:02:50+00:00\",\"index\":\"\",\"fulltext\":\"\"}],\"status\":\"published\",\"journal\":{\"display\":true,\"email\":\"info@researchsquare.com\",\"identity\":\"theoretical-and-applied-climatology\",\"isNatureJournal\":false,\"hasQc\":true,\"allowDirectSubmit\":false,\"externalIdentity\":\"taac\",\"sideBox\":\"Learn more about [Theoretical and Applied Climatology](https://www.springer.com/journal/704)\",\"snPcode\":\"704\",\"submissionUrl\":\"https://submission.nature.com/new-submission/704/3\",\"title\":\"Theoretical and Applied Climatology\",\"twitterHandle\":\"\",\"acdcEnabled\":true,\"dfaEnabled\":true,\"editorialSystem\":\"em\",\"reportingPortfolio\":\"Springer Hybrid\",\"inReviewEnabled\":true,\"inReviewRevisionsEnabled\":false}}],\"origin\":\"\",\"ownerIdentity\":\"c7b99758-b37e-4b1e-b2fa-92c9e24e293c\",\"owner\":[],\"postedDate\":\"May 8th, 2025\",\"published\":true,\"recentEditorialEvents\":[{\"type\":\"decision\",\"content\":\"Revision requested\",\"date\":\"2026-05-02T20:43:59+00:00\",\"index\":\"\",\"fulltext\":\"\"},{\"type\":\"editorInvitedReview\",\"content\":\"\",\"date\":\"2026-05-01T23:32:10+00:00\",\"index\":49,\"fulltext\":\"\"}],\"rejectedJournal\":[],\"revision\":\"\",\"amendment\":\"\",\"status\":\"under-review\",\"subjectAreas\":[],\"tags\":[],\"updatedAt\":\"2026-05-17T01:38:12+00:00\",\"versionOfRecord\":[],\"versionCreatedAt\":\"2025-05-08 18:06:34\",\"video\":\"\",\"vorDoi\":\"\",\"vorDoiUrl\":\"\",\"workflowStages\":[]},\"version\":\"v1\",\"identity\":\"rs-6497889\",\"journalConfig\":\"researchsquare\"},\"__N_SSP\":true},\"page\":\"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]\",\"query\":{\"redirect\":\"/article/rs-6497889\",\"identity\":\"rs-6497889\",\"version\":[\"v1\"]},\"buildId\":\"XKTyCvWXoU3ODBz1xrDgd\",\"isFallback\":false,\"isExperimentalCompile\":false,\"dynamicIds\":[84888],\"gssp\":true,\"scriptLoader\":[]}","source_license":"CC-BY-4.0","license_restricted":false}