{"paper_id":"19d4dcf8-8a6d-4e68-87a5-6e35b776c0ff","body_text":"From net-zero to zero-fossil in transforming the EU energy system | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article From net-zero to zero-fossil in transforming the EU energy system Felix Schreyer, Falko Ueckerdt, Robert Pietzcker, Adrian Odenweller, and 5 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-5579966/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 10 Dec, 2025 Read the published version in Nature Communications → Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract The EU climate neutrality goal requires a strong reduction in fossil fuel use by 2050. However, whether a complete phase-out is feasible and desirable remains unclear. Here, using an integrated assessment model, we quantify the additional effort needed to achieve a virtually complete phase-out of fossil fuels in the EU by 2050 compared to a least-cost net-zero scenario. In this least-cost net-zero scenario, fossil fuel use already decreases by 87% from 2020 to 2050, driven by renewable power, direct electrification and some biofuels. However, hard-to-abate oil-based hydrocarbons and natural gas persist and are used primarily for chemicals, aviation and shipping. Phasing-out these remaining 13% of fossil fuels requires the large-scale deployment of costly carbon-neutral e-fuels, which about doubles marginal abatement costs from 300€/tCO2 to 650 €/tCO2 (500-1000 €/tCO2) by 2050. Although a fossil phase-out target could strengthen EU climate policy commitment, it also poses additional transformation challenges. Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental social sciences/Climate-change mitigation Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental social sciences/Environmental economics Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental social sciences/Climate-change policy Figures Figure 1 Figure 2 Figure 3 Figure 4 Figure 5 Figure 6 Highlights • Quantification of the additional effort required for a virtually complete phase-out of fossil fuels in the EU by 2050 beyond a least-cost net-zero scenario • Least-cost net-zero scenario already abates 87% of EU fossil fuel use by 2050 through renewable power, electrification and some bio-based fuels • Carbon-neutral e-fuels are crucial to replace the remaining 13% of hardest-to-abate fossil fuels, mainly oil-based hydrocarbons and natural gas for international transport and chemicals • Achieving a near-complete fossil phase-out by 2050 roughly doubles marginal abatement costs to 650 €/tCO2 (500–1000 €/tCO2), compared to €300/tCO2 in a least-cost net-zero scenario Introduction About three quarters of current EU greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions result from the combustion of fossil fuels (Eurostat, 2024 ). Therefore, fossil fuel use needs to decline substantially to achieve the 2050 climate neutrality goal legislated by the European Climate Law (EU, 2021 ). Ahead of the COP28 climate summit in Dubai, the EU outlined its ambition for the world “to be predominantly free of fossil fuels well ahead of 2050” (European Council, 2023 ). However, this ambition has not translated into concrete EU targets for reducing or phasing out fossil fuel consumption. Residual fossil fuel use can be consistent with the EU’s net-zero goal if the resulting CO2 emissions are mitigated through carbon capture and storage (CCS) at fossil installations, or if non-captured fossil CO2 is compensated with carbon dioxide removal (CDR). However, the energy sector competes with other emitting sectors, such as agriculture and industrial processes, for both CCS or CDR compensation. Moreover, the scale at which CCS and CDR will be available remains uncertain due to challenges related to upscaling, monitoring, reporting and verification (MRV), reversibility, finance, and sustainability impacts (Anderson and Peters, 2016 ; Fuss et al., 2018 ; Muratori et al., 2016 ). Integrated assessment modeling (IAM) scenarios often overlook these aspects, assuming unrealistically fast CCS deployment (Kazlou et al., 2024 ; Zhang et al., 2024 ), which may lead to an overestimation of admissible residual fossil fuel use at the point of net-zero (Achakulwisut et al., 2023 ). This poses the risk of creating wrong expectations as stakeholders in the energy sector scale down mitigation ambition in anticipation of sufficient future CCS or CDR to abate their fossil emissions. Without clear and realistic expectations about which sectors will be eligible for residual emissions at the point of net-zero, there is the risk that actors collectively slow down the transformation and hold back structural innovations in anticipation of CDR options to compensate their emissions. This underscores the importance of establishing clear eligibility criteria for residual emissions (Brad et al., 2024 ; Buck et al., 2023 ; Lund et al., 2023 ). A possible solution to reduce this risk would be to complement the EU 2050 net-zero target with a target on the full phase-out of fossil fuels that would rule out residual emissions in the energy sector. The appeal of such target mainly lies in creating an additional focal point for the EU energy transition that would signal increased political commitment, create clarity about climate-compatible investment decisions and safeguard against political backlashes (Dolphin et al., 2023 ). Additionally, a fossil phase-out target would support the EU’s ambition to become independent of fossil fuel imports, a priority that has become even more pressing since the start of the Russo-Ukrainian War (EU Commission, 2022 ). However, the economic and feasibility challenges of an EU fossil phase-out by 2050 are still unclear. Most EU net-zero scenario studies anticipate some residual fossil energy use by 2050, finding CDR compensation more cost-effective than eliminating the last 10–20% of energy emissions (Boitier et al., 2023 ; EU Commission, 2018 ; European Scientific Advisory Board on Climate Change, 2023 ; Rodrigues et al., 2022 ). While global IAM studies have identified abatement limits predominantly in agriculture and partially also in the energy sector (Edelenbosch et al., 2024 ; Fuhrman et al., 2024 ; Luderer et al., 2018 ; Vuuren et al., 2018 ), they have not specifically investigated a full fossil phase-out. In contrast, energy system models (ESMs) have analyzed 100% renewable energy systems in the EU, but differ substantially from IAMs by focusing on the hourly dynamics of renewable energy supply without addressing real-world transformation inertias, demand side mitigation dynamics, as well as macroeconomic implications (Breyer et al., 2022b , 2022a ; Victoria et al., 2022 ). While ESMs have demonstrated the technical feasibility of a 100% renewable energy system, a plausible full-system pathway to a complete fossil phase-out remains unclear. The goal of this study is to explore the transformation dynamics, challenges and feasibility of a full fossil phase-out in EU net-zero scenarios up to 2050 using the IAM REMIND. We analyze energy transition pathways in a set of net-zero scenarios with varying levels of residual fossil use and derive abatement cost curves to understand the cost of abating the last 10–15% of fossil emissions in the EU energy sector by 2050. We find that a near-zero fossil EU energy system can be reached in 2050 but results in increasing marginal costs up to 650 EUR/tCO2 driven by a substantial demand for expensive e-fuels to substitute residual fossils primarily in chemicals, aviation and shipping. Results Transformation to a Fossil-free EU Energy System We explore a range of EU net-zero (NZ) scenarios up to 2050 with different levels of residual fossil energy (Ext Data Table 1, Methods section M2). We do this by varying the availability of CO2 storage and CDR, which jointly determine the allowed amount of residual fossil energy use at the point of net-zero. First, we model a least-cost NZ scenario ( LeastCost-NZ ) where CO2 storage injection is free to scale up to 2 Gt/yr in the EU at low injection costs. Furthermore, we optimistically assume that the EU land carbon sink can increase from the current level of 240 MtCO2/yr to 370 MtCO2/yr in 2050, exceeding the 2030 goal of 310 MtCO2/yr (European Commission, 2021 ). This is our benchmark net-zero scenario without a fossil phase-out. Second, we model a fossil-free NZ scenario ( FosFree-NZ) where CO2 storage injection is limited to 110 MtCO2/yr, which is the lowest setting for the model to still reach the net-zero target, with the land carbon sink remaining at 240 MtCO2/yr. To explore the solution space around these two core scenarios, we run intermediate scenarios with gradual changes in allowed CO2 injection rates ( Intm1-NZ , Intm2-NZ , Intm3-NZ , Intm4-NZ ) as well as sensitivity scenarios with high costs of green hydrogen ( expH2 ), low costs of direct air capture ( cheapDAC ), high biomass availability ( highBio ) and low-cost e-fuel imports at a fixed price of 150 EUR/MWh ( highImp ) (see Ext Data Table 1 and Ext Data Table 2). All EU NZ scenarios investigated in this study are characterized by a strong reduction in fossil fuel use. In comparison to the 1.5-2°C scenarios from the IPCC Assessment Report 6 (AR6) database (IPCC, 2022 ) for the European Region, they explore a range of considerably deeper fossil phase-out trajectories, including a scenario with a virtually full phase-out by 2050. While the EU currently depends on fossil fuels for about 75% of its primary energy, in our scenarios this share drops to about 60% by 2030 and to less than 1% by 2050 in the FosFree-NZ scenario, and 16% by 2050 in the LeastCost-NZ scenario (Fig. 1 A). These results stand in stark contrast to the majority of 1.5-2°C scenarios from the AR6 database, where fossil fuels account for 19–57% (10th to 90th percentile range, used throughout this paper for AR6 data) of primary energy in 2050 in the European region (Fig. 1 A, grey lines). Similarly, EU-focused transformation scenarios from the European Climate and Energy Modeling Forum (ECEMF) also indicate residual fossil energy use in 2050 (Fig. 1 A, blue lines). Looking at a broad set of indicators in 2050, the deep fossil fuel reduction in our EU net-zero scenarios is enabled by an accelerated energy transition until mid-century, going beyond most 1.5°C scenarios in the AR6 database (Fig. 1 B-K). This is mainly achieved by direct electrification of energy end-use in buildings, road transport and industrial process heat based on renewable electricity as the electricity share in final energy increases to close to 60% in 2050 (Fig. 1 G). As a consequence, the share of hydrocarbon energy carriers in final energy decreases substantially (from 75% in 2020 to 27–30%, Fig. 1 F), which is also driven by efficiency improvements from electrification that lead to an overall reduction of total final energy demand by about 40% relative to 2020 (Ext Data Fig. 1 ). Complementing electrification, green hydrogen-based fuels substitute fossil fuels in hard-to-electrify sectors as their share increases to 8–19% of final energy by 2050 (Fig. 1 H). Through a combination of all these levers, the FosFree-NZ scenario achieves a virtually complete phase-out of fossil fuels, eliminating fossil fuel CO2 emissions without relying on large-scale bioenergy production (Fig. 1 C and I). This enables net-zero GHG emissions in the EU by 2050 at considerably lower CCS and CDR deployment in comparison to most AR6 and ECEMF scenarios (Fig. 1 J and K). Moving from the current fossil-based system in 2020 to the 2050 state, energy flows fundamentally change in our scenarios as renewable power becomes the backbone of a fossil-free energy system (Fig. 2 ). Relative to 2020, fossil primary energy consumption decreases by 87% in 2050 in LeastCost-NZ , and even by 99.5% in FosFree-NZ , i.e. reaching a near zero-fossil system. Fossil fuels are largely substituted by (non-biomass) renewable electricity which is either used directly or indirectly via electricity-based fuels. By moving away from the combustion of hydrocarbons, this transformation comes with considerable efficiency gains in terms of total primary energy consumption (incl. renewables used for imported e-fuels), which decreases by around 30% in 2050 relative to 2020. The transformation to a fossil-free EU energy system can be characterized by three different steps: decarbonization of the power sector (Fig. 3 D, Ext Data Fig. 2 ), direct electrification of end-use sectors (Fig. 3 E) and a de-fossilization of residual combustible fuels (Fig. 3 F). These steps tend to occur consecutively in time and at increasing marginal cost of abatement. First, at relatively low marginal cost of abatement, the power sector already transitions up the mid-2030s to a system that is largely based on variables renewable energy (VRE) from wind and solar power, which strongly reduces coal consumption (Ext Data Fig. 2 ). Second, direct electrification of final energy across end-use sectors unfolds up to 2040 (Fig. 3 E) and is mainly associated with the substitution of natural gas and oil that are reduced less rapidly than coal (Fig. 3 B and C). Finally, a switch to low-carbon fuels (bio-based, hydrogen-based) avoids emissions in hard-to-electrify sectors that require combustible or carbonaceous fuels as the last and most expensive step of the energy transition (Fig. 3 F). This full de-fossilization of residual hydrocarbons in the last 10–15 years is the main difference between the LeastCost-NZ and the FosFree-NZ , which show similar levels of total hydrocarbon demand as the LeastCost-NZ already deploys most of the available electrification options until 2050 (Fig. 3 F, Ext Data Fig. 4 ) . Residual Fossils in 2050 By 2050, in the LeastCost-NZ scenario, the fossil fuel carbon consumption (FFCC), defined as the carbon content of all fossil fuels in the energy system, drops to 410 MtCO2/yr (Fig. 4 A). The FFCC is equivalent to the sum of all energy-related fossil CO2 emissions (i.e. excluding fossil CO2 from cement calcination) and fossil carbon stored by CCS or in durable materials. We use this metric to distinguish between emissions reductions from avoiding fossil fuel use in the first place and permanently storing of fossil fuel carbon. In the LeastCost-NZ scenario , fossil fuel carbon storage plays some role as 40 MtCO2/yr are stored and 370 MtCO2/yr are emitted. In FosFree-NZ , the FFCC reaches very low levels of 16 MtCO2/yr, which means that only 0.5% of the fossil fuel carbon used in 2020 is fed into the energy system by 2050. Most of this carbon is emitted as the role of fossil carbon storage diminishes in FosFree-NZ since almost all geological carbon storage potential, limited to 110 MtCO2/yr, is required for non-fossil carbon to generate CDR. Residual fossil fuel CO2 emissions in 2050 in the LeastCost-NZ scenario mainly come from oil-based liquid fuels and natural gas used in the chemicals sector (as fuel and feedstock), in international shipping and aviation (oil-based liquid fuels) and to a smaller extent in buildings (remaining gas boilers) (Fig. 4 A). In addition to the combustion emissions accounted in these sectors, there are also emissions from the production of fossil fuels (fuel production sector in Fig. 4 A). The electricity, district heating and domestic transport sector are almost completely fossil-free even in LeastCost-NZ and the buildings sector largely reduces fossil emissions by more than 80% in 2050 relative to 2020. Moving from the LeastCost-NZ towards the FosFree-NZ scenario, carbon-neutral fuels substitute residual oil-based liquid hydrocarbons and fossil gas (Fig. 4 B). Primarily, e-fuels, i.e. synthetic liquid fuels or chemicals produced from electrolytic hydrogen (Ext Data Fig. 5 ) and non-fossil CO2 (Ext Data Fig. 6 ), gradually replace fossil liquids used in chemicals, aviation and shipping. As e-fuels are an expensive mitigation option, they are only deployed at scale once CDR options like BECCS and DACCS are limited, which aligns with previous research (Lehtveer et al., 2019 ; Mignone et al., 2024 ; Oshiro and Fujimori, 2022 ). Biofuels are also deployed but their use is not expanded in the FosFree-NZ scenario as the overall bioenergy potential is limited. However, while in the LeastCost-NZ some biomass is used to produce hydrogen, in the FosFree-NZ this biomass is shifted to produce biogas (SI Fig. 1 ) which replaces part of the fossil gas used in industry and buildings. Additional electrification and energy demand reduction further reduce the role of fossil gas. Overall, this enables a near complete fossil phase-out across energy supply and energy end-use sectors with a fossil share of primary energy below 1% (see section M7 Limitations on the Fossil Phase-out for details on near-zero). Total carbon capture in the EU by 2050 decreases from about 400 MtCO2/yr in the LeastCost-NZ scenario to 250 MtCO2/yr in FosFree-NZ , induced by the limitations on CCS (Ext Data Fig. 6 ). Instead of injection into geological storage, captured carbon is increasingly used for e-fuel production, taking up more than half of the carbon captured in the FosFree-NZ. Most of this carbon is biogenic, as direct air capture (DAC) is not competitive by 2050 in any of the standard scenarios (and deployed only in the cheapDAC sensitivity scenarios, see Ext Data Fig. 6 ). In LeastCost-NZ , CCS reaches about 400 MtCO2/yr, which is still much below the scenario-specific limit of 2000 MtCO2/yr, while in FosFree-NZ CCS is reduced precisely to the scenario-specific limit of 110 MtCO2/yr. This minimum level of deployment is required to generate sufficient CDR for achieving economy-wide GHG neutrality (Ext Data Fig. 7). Cost Implications of an EU Fossil Phase-out A complete fossil fuel phase-out incurs additional costs beyond those for reaching the 2050 EU NZ target. Marginal abatement cost (MAC) in 2050 (represented by CO2 prices required for the model to reach NZ) increase from 300 EUR/tCO2 in the LeastCost-NZ scenario to about 650 EUR/tCO2 in the FosFree-NZ scenario (Fig. 5 A). The MAC curve in this domain of low FFCC aligns well with the fuel-switching CO2 prices that are required to make liquid e-fuels competitive with liquid fossil fuels based on the energy prices derived from our model (see dashed red line in Fig. 5 A). This means that the MAC for the last about 400 MtCO2/yr of FFCC are governed by the cost difference between e-fuels and fossil liquids (see also SI Fig. 2 for sensitivity scenarios). The increase in fuel switching CO2 prices between LeastCost-NZ and FosFree-NZ can be explained by increasing e-fuel cost as a result of increasing demand and decreasing cost of oil-based liquids as a result of decreasing oil demand (SI Fig. 3 ). At low FFCC, marginal abatement costs are quite sensitive to scenario assumptions (Fig. 4 B). In scenarios with higher availability of biomass ( HighBio ) or low-cost e-fuel imports at 150 EUR/MWh ( HighImp ), MAC decrease in the FosFree-NZ scenario setting to 570 and 510 EUR/tCO2 respectively. In contrast, under high cost of green hydrogen ( expH2 ) or without e-fuel imports ( noImp ), MAC substantially increase to 800 and 1000 EUR/tCO2, respectively. This illustrates that CO2 prices required for a full fossil phase-out strongly depend on the availability of low-cost of carbon-neutral fuels. Aggregate consumption losses, which are representative of the total cost of climate change mitigation, are not as sensitive to our scenario assumptions as MAC at the point of NZ. The relative changes in aggregate EU 2025–2050 consumption losses across scenarios (calculated relative to a weak climate policy scenario, see Methods M5) are considerably smaller than the increase in MAC (Fig. 5 C). This is plausible because only specific sectors that still demand liquid or gaseous hydrocarbons (chemicals and international transport) see a strong relative increase in energy prices in FosFree-NZ , while the cost of energy service provision in electrifiable sectors, e.g. for mobility or heating, is much less affected by the additional transformation of a fossil phase-out (SI Fig. 4 ). Feasibility challenges of scaling-up e-fuels or CCS Reaching the EU NZ target with or without residual fossil energy has implications, in particular, for the required deployment of e-fuels and CCS. EU e-fuel demand rises to more than 1000 TWh/yr in 2050 in the FosFree-NZ scenario and European CCS capacity in the LeastCost-NZ scenario grows to about 400 MtCO2/yr. Given the nascent state of either technology, this poses substantial scale-up challenges. For e-fuels, global project announcements add up to 56 TWh/y by 2030, of which less than 1% are already operational and less than 7% have reached a final investment decision or are under construction (Fig. 6 a). Assuming 10 TWh/yr are realized by 2030 based on existing EU e-fuel quotas, global e-fuel production could only supply EU e-fuel demand in the FosFree-NZ scenario if in 2030–2050 it grew as rapidly as solar PV over the last 20 years and the EU secured a substantial share of the global market. Lower growth rates of e.g. wind or hydropower in the same historical period would not suffice. For CCS, European project announcements are 168 MtCO2/yr by 2030, of which only 1% are operational and less than 2.5% are under construction (Fig. 6 c). Assuming a historical failure rate of 88% for announced projects (Kazlou et al., 2024 ), total European CCS capacity would reach 25 MtCO2/yr by 2030, which would still be below the EU target of 50 MtCO2/yr (EU Commission, 2023 ). Starting from 25 MtCO2/yr in 2030, the LeastCost-NZ scenario would require CCS in Europe to grow up to 2050 almost as fast as US tight oil production over the last 17 years, while lower growth rates of e.g. total US oil production in the same historical period would not suffice. There is a trade-off between high scale-up requirements for either CCS capacity or e-fuel production depending on whether or not the EU NZ target is reached with a full fossil phase-out. While long-term growth rates for CCS in the LeastCost-NZ scenario would not need to be as high as for e-fuels in the FosFree-NZ scenario, the scale-up of either technology can only be achieved with a short-term policy push up to 2030 as well as sustained long-term growth rates afterwards. Discussion In this study, we investigate the transformation dynamics and challenges of a phase-out of fossil fuel consumption in the EU energy system by 2050. This transformation can be broadly characterized by three steps that occur consecutively in time and at increasing marginal cost of abatement: decarbonization of the power sector, direct electrification and a switch to carbon-neutral residual fuels. The first two steps are also present in least-cost net-zero scenario ( LeastCost-NZ ) and are already quite impactful: Fossil primary energy consumption in the EU decreases by 87% in 2050 relative 2020 at moderate carbon prices of about 300 EUR/tCO2 driven mainly by a transition to renewable power, direct electrification and some bio-based fuels. It reduces fossil fuel carbon consumption to 410 MtCO2/yr, of which 370 MtCo2/yr are emitted, which brings fossil fuel CO2 emissions down to 13% of 2020 levels. At this point, electrification potentials are largely exploited such that the remaining transformation, moving from a least-cost to a fossil-free net-zero scenario, is focused on the energy supply-side via the provision of non-fossil hydrocarbons. Here, mainly oil-based liquid fuels are substituted by carbon-neutral e-fuels and remaining natural gas is replaced with biogas. Marginal abatement costs in this domain are governed by the fuel-switching CO2 prices between liquid e-fuels and their fossil counterparts. A complete fossil phase-out drives up marginal abatement costs to about 650 EUR/tCO2 (500–1000 EUR/tCO2 across sensitivities), incurred in the hardest-to-abate sectors of the energy system (chemical industry and international transport) and depending on the cost and scarcity of carbon-neutral e-fuels. Meeting the corresponding EU e-fuel demand of about 1000 TWh/yr in 2050 comes with substantial scale-up challenges for this nascent technology. At the same time, it decreases the pressure on CCS scale-up that would otherwise be needed to reach the EU net-zero target. A key difference between the net-zero scenario with and without residual fossil energy use is the shift from using fossil fuels in combination with CDR compensation to carbon-neutral e-fuels. While this substantially reduces the reliance on CO2 storage, bioenergy with carbon and capture only drops by one third in the fossil phase-out scenario as these technologies are needed for e-fuel production. Therefore, if the availability of non-fossil (biogenic or atmospheric) CO2 becomes a bottleneck, neither CCS nor e-fuels can deliver and the EU net-zero goal is fundamentally at risk. The increase in marginal abatement cost for the last 13% of fossil fuel CO2 emissions is substantial in some of our scenarios but needs to be contextualized. First, our scenarios only feature a basic implementation of EU e-fuel imports with either fixed import shares or fixed import prices. Modeling global markets of hydrogen and e-fuels across all regions could make carbon-neutral fuels cheaper than estimated in our range if the best renewable sites can be accessed (Hampp et al., 2023 ; Pfennig et al., 2023 ). Still, we think our assessment covers a broad set of plausible assumptions. Second, we do not specifically look at demand-side measures to further reduce residual hydrocarbon demand e.g. by circularity in the chemicals sector or reduced air travel (Grubler et al., 2018 ; Sharmina et al., 2020 ; Stegmann et al., 2022 ). Third, the high costs are incurred only in specific sectors with a small share in the overall economy and aggregate economic costs do not increase as much. This suggests that transformational challenges can be managed more easily if concerns about the distribution of cost are addressed. At the heart of a decision on an EU fossil phase-out target by 2050 lies a fundamental trade-off involving different types of risks and uncertainties. On the one hand, such a target would create an additional focal point for the EU energy transition, avoid mitigation deterrence due to wrong expectations about net-zero compatible fossil use and provide clear signals to investors about the course of the energy transition. Moreover, bringing residual emissions in the EU energy sector to near-zero would reduce the need for CO2 storage which faces challenges of technology upscaling and public support (Budinis et al., 2018 ; Kazlou et al., 2024 ; Oltra et al., 2022 ). On the other hand, a full fossil phase-out comes with a considerable increase in marginal abatement costs, as the last fossil fuels need to be replaced by expensive carbon-neutral e-fuels. These e-fuels would need to be supplied in significant amounts of about 1000 TWh/yr, which is in the order of magnitude of the current EU liquid fuel consumption in aviation and shipping. They would either need to be imported or produced at higher cost in the EU. A viable middle course could therefore be to define partial fossil phase-out targets that only allow fossils to a certain percentage in specific sectors (similar to the aviation quotas in ReFuelEU, EU ( 2023a )). This would provide some planning security but limit the transformational burden on specific hard-to-electrify sectors. Ultimately, this trade-off involves different layers of social, economic and political aspects that go beyond the scope of our study and that would need to complement the findings we derive from an energy system modeling perspective. Total words: ~ 3600 Declarations Data Availability All data are publicly available. Scenario modeling data generated and used by this study can be found on Zenodo: https://zenodo.org/records/14016561. For the scenario comparison data, we used the AR6 and ECEMF scenario explorers (IPCC, 2022; Pietzcker et al., 2023). For e-fuel and CCS projects, we retrieved data from the IEA Hydrogen Projects Database (IEA, 2022) and the IEA CCUS Database (IEA, 2024). For calculating historical growth rates, we used data from the Energy Institute (Energy Institute, 2024). Code Availability The REMIND code used to generate the results can be found on GitHub: https://github.com/fschreyer/remind/tree/FossilFree_master. The data analysis scripts and plotting data can be found at https://zenodo.org/records/14016561. Acknowledgements This research has received funding from the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research under grant agreement 03SFK5A0-2 (Ariadne; F.S., F.U., A.O., R.P.) and the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme under grant agreement 101022622 (ECEMF; R.R.). We thank F. Benke for providing support with the visualizations. Moreover, we thank the research software engineering group in the REMIND team for technical support and the IT team at PIK for providing the high-performance cluster computing environment used for the generation of the results. Author Contributions F.S., F.U. and G.L. conceptualized the research. F.S. conducted the scenario modeling analysis and A.O. conducted the upscaling analysis. F.S., R.P., F.U., A.O., A.M., F.L. and G.L. validated and interpreted the modeling results. F.S., F.U., R.P., A.O., A.M., R.R., J.S. and G.L. contributed to the concepts and implementation of the modeling system. F.S. wrote the manuscript with contributions from A.O., F.U., R.P., A.M., J.S., F.L. and G.L. F.U., R.P. and G.L. contributed to the acquisition of funding used for this project. Competing interests The authors declare no competing interests. References Achakulwisut, P., Erickson, P., Guivarch, C., Schaeffer, R., Brutschin, E., Pye, S., 2023. Global fossil fuel reduction pathways under different climate mitigation strategies and ambitions. Nat Commun 14, 5425. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-41105-z Anderson, K., Peters, G., 2016. The trouble with negative emissions. 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REMIND is an energy-economy model that allows to investigate transformation pathways with respect to different regional or global climate targets (Baumstark et al., 2021). It conducts an interporal Ramsey-type welfare maximization including a detailed energy system as well as representations of the mitigation of non-CO2 emissions in land use and other sectors. We apply the model in a setting of 21 world regions including 8 regions of the European Union (EU) to meet a global cumulative peak CO2 budget of 650 GtCO2 from 2020 representing a 1.5C scenario and the EU regions, specifically, to jointly meet the net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions goal in 2050. REMIND resolves key mitigation options for a deep transformation of the energy system. It covers all energy demand across the end-use sectors buildings, industry, transport and carbon dioxide removal including carriers used for energy purposes as well as material use (feedstocks). The model features an industry sector with subsectors including a steel, cement, chemicals and other industry sector (Pehl et al., 2023), a detailed representation of passenger and freight transport (Rottoli et al., 2021) and a comprehensive energy supply system including technologies to produce electricity-based hydrogen and hydrocarbons (Luderer et al., 2022; Pietzcker et al., 2017; Schreyer et al., 2024). Novel technologies are subject either to endogenous learning (VRE technologies, electrolysis, direct air capture) based on installed capacity (learning-by-doing) or exogenous cost projections over time. CO2 can be captured in the model from different streams (energy supply, industry, direct air capture) and can be either stored geologically (CCS) or used for the production of synthetic liquid or gaseous fuels (CCU). Moreover, the model features a parameterization of VRE integration and flexibility effects in a power system with fluctuating renewables. For a more detailed description please see the above references on different aspects of the modeling system. There are a number of modeling features that are particularly relevant for the results of this study. First, carbon prices (referred to as marginal abatement cost in the main text) and energy prices are an endogenous outcome of the model runs. The model adjusts carbon price trajectories across iterations until all regional and global climate targets are met. The 2050 EU carbon price can therefore be interpreted as the marginal abatement cost to reach net-zero emissions in 2050. Energy prices are numerically computed shadow prices of energy balance equations in the model (secondary energy balance and final energy balance). They represent the monetary gain the model sees for having an additional unit of the respective energy carrier at free disposal. Second, the representation of green hydrogen production has been improved relative to previous model versions. Hydrogen can be produced from different energy carriers, including electricity, biomass, natural gas and coal. However, for electrolytic hydrogen, i.e. green hydrogen, there is challenge of capturing the option of flexible electrolysis operation in a power system with fluctuating renewables. As REMIND only matches supply and demand in 5-year time steps, the dynamics of a VRE-based power system have to be parameterized based on results from hourly power system models (Pietzcker et al., 2017). To parameterize the flexible operation of electrolysis, we used data from the power system model Enertile for high-VRE scenarios of Germany (Frauenhofer ISI, 2023) to derive a relation between the share of electrolysis in annual electricity demand and the average electricity price for electrolysis normalized by the annual average electricity price. We used this relation to reduce the electricity price that electrolysis sees in REMIND depending on the share of electrolysis in total power demand. In our standard net-zero scenarios, this results in a range of about 20 ( LeastCost-NZ ) to 35 EUR/MWh ( FosFree-NZ ) average EU electricity price for electrolysis in 2050. Third, we represent the option of producing synthetic (liquid) fuels and synthetic gas via two technologies that can convert hydrogen and CO2 to hydrocarbon liquids or gas respectively. Liquid synthetic fuel production is parameterized based on the Fischer-Tropsch synthesis technology including subsequent cracking of hydrocarbons, while the synthetic gas technology represents a methanation process. For liquid fuel production, we do not differentiate between different energy carriers (gasoline, diesel, kerosene, naphtha etc.) but implicitly assume that the process is optimized for a selectivity of hydrocarbons that fits the liquid fuel demand profile of REMIND. In the text, we refer to the outputs of the technologies as (liquid) e-fuel and e-gas as a simplification although the hydrogen used in these synthetic production processes may originate to a small share also from other technologies than electrolysis (see Ext Data Fig 5). Finally, we consider the combustion of synthetic fuels as carbon-neutral and account their emissions with the sector that captured the CO2 to feed into the process. This is in line with accounting regulation of the EU emissions trading system (ETS), which only treats permanent storage of CO2 as emissions abatement (not CCU) and combustion of CCU-based synthetic fuels as carbon-neutral (EU, 2023b; European Commission, 2023). M2. Scenario Assumptions We distinguish three different categories of net-zero scenarios in our analysis (Ext Data Table 1). First, FosFree-NZ and LeastCost-NZ are the two core scenarios to compare pathways to net-zero with and without residual fossil energy in our analysis. Second, the standard scenarios include the two core scenarios as well as the scenarios with intermediate CCS and CDR assumptions ( Intm1-NZ , Intm2-NZ, Intm3-NZ , Intm4-NZ ) under default settings with respect to other scenario and technology assumptions. Finally, the sensitivity scenarios comprise all scenarios with modified scenario assumptions regarding biomass availability ( HighBio ), cost of direct air capture ( cheapDAC ), cost of electrolytic hydrogen ( expH2 ) and availability of e-fuel imports to the EU ( HighImp and noImp ). There are several assumptions that are common to all of our EU net-zero scenarios. First, all of them reach the EU climate goals for 2030 and 2050 by assumption. For the 2030 target, we use a target of 2120 MtCo2/yr total GHG emissions in the EU including emissions from international transport (bunker fuels) within the EU representing -55% emissions reduction relative to 1990 values. For the 2050, we use a target net-zero GHG emissions in the EU including all emissions from international transport. Second, in standard net-zero scenarios we limit EU bioenergy production in the standard scenarios at 7.5 EJ/yr in line with the low scenario of Ruiz et al. (2019). Moreover, we suppress bioenergy imports from other world regions by charging a high bioenergy import tax such that bioenergy consumption in these scenarios is strictly limited. This was done to respect sustainability criteria for the production of bioenergy in and outside the EU and leads to a bioenergy consumption in the range of the 1.5LIFE and 1.5LIFE-LB scenarios developed by the EU Commission (2018). Third, we assume in all net-zero scenarios that sectoral and infrastructure policies enable a widespread electrification of energy end-uses. Our scenarios generally assume that socio-technological barriers the adoption of battery electric vehicles in road transport as well as heat pumps in industry and buildings such as infrastructure availability, first-mover disadvantages and status quo biases are overcome with increasing usage and that they can compete with existing fossil technologies based on their economics. Fourth, in the standard net-zero scenarios we assume that 50% of the EU e-fuel demand by 2050 will be imported at a fix price of 150 EUR/MWh. This is to reflect that not all of the e-fuel demand will need to be met by domestic supply. The e-fuel demand is endogenous to the model. However, e-fuel imports are exogenous to the optimization process such that the e-fuel prices in the model reflect the marginal cost of producing another unit domestically. The primary assumptions we vary to explore pathways with different levels of residual fossil energy at net-zero are the assumptions on CCS and CDR (Ext Data Table 1). Specifically, we consider different limits on the maximum annual CO2 injection into geological storage within the EU of 110 MtCO2/yr (FosFree-NZ), 130 MtCO2/r (Intm4-NZ), 180 MtCO2/yr (Intm3-NZ), 350 MtCo2/yr (Intm-2) and 2 Gt CO2/yr ( Intm-1-NZ and LeastCost-NZ ). Regarding the EU land carbon sink, there are fundamental uncertainties about its future development (Pilli et al., 2022). We make an optimistic assumption of a carbon removal of 370 MtCO2/yr by 2050 within the range of Pilli et al. (2022), which is slightly larger than what was used for the EU Commission (2018). In all other scenarios, we make the more cautious assumptions of 240 MtCO2/yr that correspond to the current level of the EU land sink (UNFCCC, 2022). Furthermore, we assume low long-term injection cost of geological CO2 storage of about 7.5 EUR/tCO2 in the LeastCost-NZ and Intm1-NZ scenarios with the highest CCS availability. In all other scenarios, these long-term cost are at 20 EUR/tCO2. This serves to make the economics of CCS more or less attractive across scenarios in comparison to other mitigation options. In addition to the dimension of CCS and CDR, we vary other parameters in the sensitivity scenarios. The scenario assumptions behind the sensitivity scenarios are summarized in Ext Data Table 2. The HighBio increases the EU bioenergy production potential to 12.5 EJ/yr following the reference scenario by Ruiz et al. (2019), which is higher than all of the scenarios from the EU Commission (2018). The cheapDAC scenario makes very optimistic assumptions about the cost development of direct air capture (DAC). We set the learning rate from 15% to 25% per year, reduce the energy demand per unit of captured carbon by 50% and assume that at least 100 MtCO2/yr DAC capacity are operating globally by 2040, which drives down the capital costs via learning-by-doing. This increased learning rate higher than what is typically indicated by technology assessments (Sievert et al., 2024). The expH2 scenarios assume a higher floor cost for electrolysis (300 USD/kW(el) instead of 100 USD kW(el)) and a smaller benefit from flexible operation (see section M1) that results in range of about 30-50 EUR/MWh average EU electricity prices for electrolysis between LeastCost-NZ and FosFree-NZ scenarios in 2050. Electrolysis is still assumed to run flexibly at a capacity factor of 0.38 as in the standard scenarios. This sensitivity represents a case in which electrolysis can access less low-price hours in the power system due to less price variability in the system or competition with other flexible technologies. Finally, we run two scenario variants with different assumptions of the availability of e-fuel imports. In the H ighImp scenarios, we provide the model with the possibility to import an unlimited amount of carbon-neutral e-fuels to the EU regions at a fixed price of 150 EUR/MWh. These imports are not sourced from other model regions but can be accessed by the respective region via a separate import stream. The price level was chosen in consideration of technoeconomic literature on the cost of importing electricity-based Fischer-Tropsch fuels to the EU (Hampp et al., 2023; Pfennig et al., 2023). We also run a scenario variant noImp without e-fuel imports where the EU has to supply all of its e-fuel demand on its own. M3. Scenario Comparison Data We take scenario data from the AR6 scenario database (IPCC, 2022) and the ECEMF database (Pietzcker et al., 2023) for comparison to our results. We describe the main filtering steps of the data in the following. For further details please see the script used for our analysis that is appended in our data repository. We filter the AR6 scenarios for categories C1, C2 and C3 representing scenarios that are consistent either with 1.5 or “well-below” 2C global temperature stabilization as they are the most ambitious recent IAM mitigation scenarios available. We filter the data for scenario results of the European Region (R10EUROPE). Note that his has a wider regional scope than the EU27 region of our scenarios generated in this study, including non-EU European countries, which is why we focus on comparing share values instead of absolute values. Next, we exclude some scenarios and models based on sanity checks of the scenario data. We exclude 1) scenarios with share data shown in Figure 1 that exceed 100% for any time step. We also exclude 2) scenarios with carbon capture and storage exceeding 2GtCO2/yr in the European Region by 2050, which is clearly outside of feasible limits. We exclude 3) scenarios with negative gross energy-related emissions in any time step. This leaves us with 382 scenarios. However, not all of them are included in each indicator of Figure 1 as some models do not report all of the variables used for calculating the indicators. Regarding the ECEMF data, we filter for the EU27 region and the scenarios “DIAG-C400-lin (version: 1)”, “DIAG-C400-lin” and “WP1 NetZero [Pre-Release 2023-11-14] (version: 1)”. These are the most ambitious scenarios currently in the database as the first two scenarios see a linear carbon price increase to 400 EUR/tCO2 and the last scenario achieves the net-zero EU goal by assumption. This leaves us with 9 scenarios from four models: REMIND 2.1, PRIMES 2022, WITCH 5.1, Euro-Calliope 2.0 where the net-zero scenario is only provided by the first two models. Our boxplots of ECEMF data therefore rely on a much smaller set of scenarios than boxplots of AR6 scenarios (see Figure 1). M4. Calculation of Fuel-switching CO2 Price The average EU fuel-switching co2 prices between liquid e-fuels and fossil liquids shown in Figure 5 are calculated by a weighted aggregation of the regional price differences between both energy carriers in the following way: M5 Weak Policy Scenario and Calculation of Consumption Losses For the calculation of aggregate consumption losses in the net-zero scenarios, we moreover run a Weak Policy scenario which reflects a scenario with continued low climate policy ambition in the EU similar to the situation in 2020 before the European Green Deal policy framework was legislated. The EU CO2 price in this scenario is not adjusted to meet a specific EU emissions target but set exogenously to remain from 2020 on at 30 EUR/tCO2 throughout the modeling time period. Moreover, sector-specific technology policies like the sales ban of internal combustion engine passenger cars from 2035 (EU, 2023c) or subsidies to support heat pump uptake implemented in the net-zero scenarios are not applied. This scenario reduces total GHG emissions to only about 2200 MtCO2/yr by 2050, which is about the level of 55% reductions relative to 1990 envisaged for 2030 with the regulation of the European Green Deal. This scenario serves as a reference point to calculate the aggregate economic consumption losses in the net-zero scenarios as a measure of the total cost of the transformation. The consumption losses, also referred to as total mitigation cost, are calculated as the difference in time-discounted aggregated consumption of the net-zero scenarios and the Weak Policy scenario. That is, M6. Upscaling Analysis For e-fuels, we use global project announcements from the IEA Hydrogen Production Projects Database (IEA, 2022), last published in October 2024, including projects that report either “Synfuels” or “MeOH” (Methanol) as the product. For projects that report “Various” as the product, we distribute the capacity in equal shares to each given end-use product, and finally include the corresponding project share for the “Synfuels” end-use product. We only include projects with an announced launch year and derive approximate e-fuel production levels from the announced electrolysis capacity (in terms of electrical input) by using an electrolysis efficiency of 70%, an electrolysis capacity factor of 38%, and an e-fuel synthesis efficiency of 70%. We exclude projects in the “Other/Unknown” category and distribute projects in the “DEMO” category to “Operational” if the announced launch year is in the past or “FID/Construction” if the announced launch year is in the future. For 2030, we assume that 10 TWh/yr of global e-fuel production capacity can be realized, which approximately corresponds to the quantities required for the EU e-fuel sub-quotas implemented within the ReFuelEU Aviation and FuelEU Maritime regulations (Block and Neu, 2023) . For CCS, we use project announcements from the IEA CCUS Projects Database (IEA, 2024), last published in March 2024, including projects for EU27 plus Norway and the United Kingdom, as the EU may export CO2 for storage to these countries in the long run. We only include the project types “Full chain”, “Storage” and “T&S” (transport and storage) and projects that report “Dedicated storage” as the fate of carbon. For the project capacity, we use the column “Estimated capacity by IEA”. For 2030, we assume that 25 MtCO2/yr of European CCS capacity can be realized, which corresponds to applying the recent failure rate of 88% for CCS projects (Kazlou et al., 2024) to all uncertain project announcements in the “Planned” category. For the growth rate comparison, we obtain global compound annual growth rates (CAGRs) of wind, solar PV and hydro power for the last 20 years (2003-2023), using the EI Statistical Review of World Energy 2024 (Energy Institute, 2024). We also use a historical 20-year CAGR of total US oil production (2003-2023) and a 17-year CAGR of US tight oil production (2007-2024) from this dataset. This serves to as comparison for the CCS scale-up requirements in our scenarios as exploration, installation and operation of CO2 storage and oil production rely on similar technological infrastructure and processes. We chose US tight oil growth as an optimistic reference point for future CCS scale-up because its rapid growth in particular around 2010 has been one of the most dynamic market developments in fossil fuel extraction in recent history. M7 Limitations on the Fossil Phase-out The FosFree-NZ scenario still features are very small amount of fossil energy use (58 TWh/yr representing 0.5% of total primary energy) as well as fossil fuel CO2 emissions (15 MtCO2/yr, representing 0.5% of current levels) in the EU by 2050. We do not investigate lower shares of fossils as this scenario captures the main dynamics of the fossil phase-out and model results with even lower fossil shares are difficult to interpret. This is mainly because marginal abatement cost represented by CO2 prices are extremely sensitive when we do model runs with even lower 2050 fossil fuel consumption. For very small quantities the model does not see fuel-switching abatement options anymore and CO2 prices strongly increase as the model has to retort to very expensive mitigation options such as further reducing energy demand. When reducing the available of CCS even further, there is a point at which model runs do not converge anymore, indicating that the given EU climate target of 2050 net-zero GHG emissions cannot be reached in this setting. Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Supplementary Files ExtendedDataandSI.docx Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 10 Dec, 2025 Read the published version in Nature Communications → Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {\"props\":{\"pageProps\":{\"initialData\":{\"identity\":\"rs-5579966\",\"acceptedTermsAndConditions\":true,\"allowDirectSubmit\":false,\"archivedVersions\":[],\"articleType\":\"Article\",\"associatedPublications\":[],\"authors\":[{\"id\":388488704,\"identity\":\"d5876123-afce-4ede-a9c7-7f1acc12dd2d\",\"order_by\":0,\"name\":\"Felix Schreyer\",\"email\":\"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAABBUlEQVRIiWNgGAWjYFACHgjFz8DYDBVJAGI2IrRINkC0SBCvxeAAAzNxWuTbzx778LHNJt/4dnOzAeMOmzr59uSnGxjKbHBqMTiTlzxzZlua5bY7B5sTGM+kSRiceWZ2g+FcGm4tEjzGzLxthw3MbiQ2H/7bdljCQCLB7AZj22HcDpsB1PK37b+B8YzE5gNAlRLyM9K/AbX8x+2ZG0AtjG0HDAwkEoEOA2phuJEDsuUAHr/kGDP2nEs2kAD6xQDoF8kNZ96U3Ug4l4zbYe1njBl+lNkZ8M9ufywBDDF++fb0bTc+lNnhdhgIMIJiQQLEaICKJODXAAR/0LWMglEwCkbBKEACAM19VndQ9MiYAAAAAElFTkSuQmCC\",\"orcid\":\"\",\"institution\":\"Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research\",\"correspondingAuthor\":true,\"prefix\":\"\",\"firstName\":\"Felix\",\"middleName\":\"\",\"lastName\":\"Schreyer\",\"suffix\":\"\"},{\"id\":388488705,\"identity\":\"8d815cfa-de83-4602-8ea3-e51cbcf54c9e\",\"order_by\":1,\"name\":\"Falko Ueckerdt\",\"email\":\"\",\"orcid\":\"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5585-030X\",\"institution\":\"Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)\",\"correspondingAuthor\":false,\"prefix\":\"\",\"firstName\":\"Falko\",\"middleName\":\"\",\"lastName\":\"Ueckerdt\",\"suffix\":\"\"},{\"id\":388488706,\"identity\":\"9c2e884c-920f-4981-87bf-3b59b7eba0c7\",\"order_by\":2,\"name\":\"Robert Pietzcker\",\"email\":\"\",\"orcid\":\"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9403-6711\",\"institution\":\"Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research\",\"correspondingAuthor\":false,\"prefix\":\"\",\"firstName\":\"Robert\",\"middleName\":\"\",\"lastName\":\"Pietzcker\",\"suffix\":\"\"},{\"id\":388488707,\"identity\":\"3a08247b-4932-4ecf-a978-daf035aae352\",\"order_by\":3,\"name\":\"Adrian Odenweller\",\"email\":\"\",\"orcid\":\"\",\"institution\":\"Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research\",\"correspondingAuthor\":false,\"prefix\":\"\",\"firstName\":\"Adrian\",\"middleName\":\"\",\"lastName\":\"Odenweller\",\"suffix\":\"\"},{\"id\":388488708,\"identity\":\"82a32134-8403-4c33-b50a-220d5f10e6cb\",\"order_by\":4,\"name\":\"Anne 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Research\",\"correspondingAuthor\":false,\"prefix\":\"\",\"firstName\":\"Jessica\",\"middleName\":\"\",\"lastName\":\"Strefler\",\"suffix\":\"\"},{\"id\":388488711,\"identity\":\"50e3fd45-34f2-47f7-815f-0cc085f923c5\",\"order_by\":7,\"name\":\"Fabrice Lécuyer\",\"email\":\"\",\"orcid\":\"\",\"institution\":\"Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research\",\"correspondingAuthor\":false,\"prefix\":\"\",\"firstName\":\"Fabrice\",\"middleName\":\"\",\"lastName\":\"Lécuyer\",\"suffix\":\"\"},{\"id\":388488712,\"identity\":\"811960cb-b194-46de-a230-51e42d5fad0e\",\"order_by\":8,\"name\":\"Gunnar Luderer\",\"email\":\"\",\"orcid\":\"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9057-6155\",\"institution\":\"Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research\",\"correspondingAuthor\":false,\"prefix\":\"\",\"firstName\":\"Gunnar\",\"middleName\":\"\",\"lastName\":\"Luderer\",\"suffix\":\"\"}],\"badges\":[],\"createdAt\":\"2024-12-04 13:00:47\",\"currentVersionCode\":1,\"declarations\":\"\",\"doi\":\"10.21203/rs.3.rs-5579966/v1\",\"doiUrl\":\"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-5579966/v1\",\"draftVersion\":[],\"editorialEvents\":[{\"content\":\"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-66682-z\",\"type\":\"published\",\"date\":\"2025-12-10T05:00:00+00:00\"}],\"editorialNote\":\"\",\"failedWorkflow\":false,\"files\":[{\"id\":73349512,\"identity\":\"680f5b7d-eee9-4a9e-90f8-d6c2ce00307c\",\"added_by\":\"auto\",\"created_at\":\"2025-01-09 06:56:58\",\"extension\":\"png\",\"order_by\":1,\"title\":\"Figure 1\",\"display\":\"\",\"copyAsset\":false,\"role\":\"figure\",\"size\":849663,\"visible\":true,\"origin\":\"\",\"legend\":\"\\u003cp\\u003eComparison of fossil share in primary energy over time and relevant mitigation indicators in 2050 of LeastCost-NZ and FosFree-NZ scenarios to scenarios from the AR6 database and the ECEMF project.\\u0026nbsp; A) Share of Fossil Fuels in Primary Energy: Grey lines refer to AR6 scenarios and blue lines to ECEMF scenarios. B) to K): Boxplots and scatter plots with relevant mitigation indicators in 2050 for LeastCost-NZ and FosFree-NZ scenarios of this study (green and red dots), AR6 scenarios (grey boxplots) and ECEMF scenarios (small blue dots). The value n next to the boxplots gives the number of AR6 scenarios plotted for this indicator. The upper and lower hinges of the boxplots show 25\\u003csup\\u003eth\\u003c/sup\\u003e and 75\\u003csup\\u003eth\\u003c/sup\\u003e percentiles and the whiskers extend to the largest value within 1.5 times the distance between the 25\\u003csup\\u003eth\\u003c/sup\\u003e and 75\\u003csup\\u003eth\\u003c/sup\\u003e percentiles. Data beyond the whiskers are plotted as individual dots. The comparison shows selected scenarios of the European Region from the AR6 database in the categories C1, C2 and C3, representing 1.5-2°C scenarios (IPCC, 2022). It also shows 9 scenarios from ECEMF project (EU27 region, DIAG-C400-lin and WP1 NetZero scenarios, Pietzcker et al. (2023)). See details on comparison scenario in section M3. Scenario Comparison Data.\\u003c/p\\u003e\",\"description\":\"\",\"filename\":\"image1.png\",\"url\":\"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-5579966/v1/583f8b510d35a33bba07c5d3.png\"},{\"id\":73349514,\"identity\":\"28c652b9-d377-4ee4-8a1d-c62ecfc4193a\",\"added_by\":\"auto\",\"created_at\":\"2025-01-09 06:56:58\",\"extension\":\"png\",\"order_by\":2,\"title\":\"Figure 2\",\"display\":\"\",\"copyAsset\":false,\"role\":\"figure\",\"size\":306021,\"visible\":true,\"origin\":\"\",\"legend\":\"\\u003cp\\u003eEnergy flows from primary (left) to secondary (middle) to final energy (right) for the EU in 2020 and 2050 in the LeastCost-NZ and FosFree-NZ scenarios. Numbers in brackets correspond to the total outflow of energy for primary and secondary energy and total inflow for final energy (buildings, industry, transport, CDR sectors) in TWh/yr.\\u003c/p\\u003e\",\"description\":\"\",\"filename\":\"image2.png\",\"url\":\"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-5579966/v1/420a2ea257011ccc59f323c7.png\"},{\"id\":73351130,\"identity\":\"c1c0bdfa-e28c-4db7-85d0-36ade7f086a9\",\"added_by\":\"auto\",\"created_at\":\"2025-01-09 07:12:58\",\"extension\":\"png\",\"order_by\":3,\"title\":\"Figure 3\",\"display\":\"\",\"copyAsset\":false,\"role\":\"figure\",\"size\":253296,\"visible\":true,\"origin\":\"\",\"legend\":\"\\u003cp\\u003eEvolution of fossil energy demand and clean energy shares over time. A) Primary energy coal demand in the EU relative to 2020. Bold lines represent \\u003cem\\u003eFosFree-NZ\\u003c/em\\u003e scenario (solid line) and \\u003cem\\u003eLeastCost-NZ\\u003c/em\\u003e scenario (dashed line). Thin lines and funnel represent all intermediate NZ scenarios and sensitivity NZ scenarios (see section M2. Scenario Assumptions). B) As in A but for primary energy natural gas demand. C) As in A but for primary energy oil demand. D) As in A but for the share of variable renewables (VRE), that is, wind and solar power, in total power generation. E) As in A but for the share of electricity in final energy across buildings (red), industry without feedstocks (grey) and domestic transport (blue). F) As in A but for the share of non-fossil combustible fuels (carbon-neutral hydrocarbons and hydrogen) in final energy distinguished between bio-based fuels (green) and hydrogen-based fuels (cyan).\\u003c/p\\u003e\",\"description\":\"\",\"filename\":\"image3.png\",\"url\":\"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-5579966/v1/5f373e0ac5ac97da84fb98e9.png\"},{\"id\":73349515,\"identity\":\"3252a82a-ceca-4580-8298-b29dd35bcf86\",\"added_by\":\"auto\",\"created_at\":\"2025-01-09 06:56:58\",\"extension\":\"png\",\"order_by\":4,\"title\":\"Figure 4\",\"display\":\"\",\"copyAsset\":false,\"role\":\"figure\",\"size\":92115,\"visible\":true,\"origin\":\"\",\"legend\":\"\\u003cp\\u003eResidual fossil fuel carbon consumption and final energy demand of hydrocarbons in 2050. A) Fossil Fuel Carbon Consumption in 2050 in the EU defined as the carbon content of all fossil fuels consumed in the energy system across sectors in core and intermediate NZ scenarios. The transparent green bars on the top represent storage of fossil fuel carbon via CCS or in materials. All other categories refer to emitted carbon in different sectors of the energy system. B) Final energy demand for hydrocarbons (solid, liquid, gaseous carbonaceous fuels) in 2050 in the EU27 in core and intermediate NZ scenarios.\\u003c/p\\u003e\",\"description\":\"\",\"filename\":\"image4.png\",\"url\":\"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-5579966/v1/b67ba0fa6ce976c143fc2c97.png\"},{\"id\":73349520,\"identity\":\"02c54792-86b8-4769-8260-1d9d033c7559\",\"added_by\":\"auto\",\"created_at\":\"2025-01-09 06:56:58\",\"extension\":\"png\",\"order_by\":5,\"title\":\"Figure 5\",\"display\":\"\",\"copyAsset\":false,\"role\":\"figure\",\"size\":259434,\"visible\":true,\"origin\":\"\",\"legend\":\"\\u003cp\\u003eMarginal abatement cost and aggregate consumption losses of EU net-zero scenarios with varying levels of residual fossil fuels. A) EU marginal abatement cost on the y-axis against fossil fuel carbon consumption (carbon contained in total demand of fossil fuels) in 2050 on the x-axis across NZ standard scenarios (black line) and corresponding fuel-switching CO2 prices for replacing fossil liquid fuels by e-fuels based shadow prices from the model (dashed red line). B) EU marginal abatement as in A) across all NZ scenarios (sensitivity scenario in colored lines). C) EU aggregate 2025-2050 consumption losses discounted at 3% per year of all NZ scenarios (sensitivity scenario in colored lines) relative to the Weak Policy scenario (see Methods section M2) on the y-axis against fossil fuel carbon in 2050 on the x-axis. See section M5 Weak Policy Scenario and Calculation of Consumption Losses for details. See M2. Scenario Assumptions and Ext Data Table 1 for description and categorization of scenarios.\\u003c/p\\u003e\",\"description\":\"\",\"filename\":\"image5.png\",\"url\":\"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-5579966/v1/6e001a244be75c782f18ee95.png\"},{\"id\":73349518,\"identity\":\"193ff6d2-ad03-4304-8e8c-62aa46be9190\",\"added_by\":\"auto\",\"created_at\":\"2025-01-09 06:56:58\",\"extension\":\"png\",\"order_by\":6,\"title\":\"Figure 6\",\"display\":\"\",\"copyAsset\":false,\"role\":\"figure\",\"size\":204116,\"visible\":true,\"origin\":\"\",\"legend\":\"\\u003cp\\u003eScenario-dependent trade-off between scaling-up global e-fuel production or European CCS capacity. a, Global e-fuel project announcements by status. By 2030, we assume that 10 TWh/yr of global e-fuel production capacity can be realized, corresponding to the aviation and maritime e-fuel sub-quotas legislated by the EU (see Methods). b, Scaling-up global e-fuels until 2050 in comparison to the global 20-year growth rates of solar, wind, and hydro power from 2003-2023. Global e-fuel production would need to grow as fast as solar PV in order to meet EU e-fuel demand in the FosFree-NZ scenario. c, European CCS project announcements by status. By 2030, we assume that 25 MtCO2/yr of European CCS capacity can be realized, corresponding to an 88% failure rate in Kazlou et al. (2024) d, Scaling-up European CCS until 2050 in comparison to the 20-year growth rates of global solar PV and total US oil production from 2003-2023, as well as the 17-year growth rate of US tight oil production from 2007-2024. European CCS capacity would need to grow almost as fast as US tight oil in order to meet the requirements in the LeastCost-NZ scenario.\\u003c/p\\u003e\",\"description\":\"\",\"filename\":\"image6.png\",\"url\":\"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-5579966/v1/2abef067a2dc87d8f62b2d68.png\"},{\"id\":97955979,\"identity\":\"e8a17382-145c-4dd7-bcf9-2b08a51baaaa\",\"added_by\":\"auto\",\"created_at\":\"2025-12-11 08:06:36\",\"extension\":\"pdf\",\"order_by\":0,\"title\":\"\",\"display\":\"\",\"copyAsset\":false,\"role\":\"manuscript-pdf\",\"size\":2497369,\"visible\":true,\"origin\":\"\",\"legend\":\"\",\"description\":\"\",\"filename\":\"manuscript.pdf\",\"url\":\"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-5579966/v1/45ea70d5-6a1e-4509-a369-1470c47f5616.pdf\"},{\"id\":73349661,\"identity\":\"275ebdbc-d7d8-47eb-96db-edc0d0beaf10\",\"added_by\":\"auto\",\"created_at\":\"2025-01-09 07:04:58\",\"extension\":\"docx\",\"order_by\":1,\"title\":\"\",\"display\":\"\",\"copyAsset\":false,\"role\":\"supplement\",\"size\":1874579,\"visible\":true,\"origin\":\"\",\"legend\":\"\",\"description\":\"\",\"filename\":\"ExtendedDataandSI.docx\",\"url\":\"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-5579966/v1/fea1655f1766861d6a953d51.docx\"}],\"financialInterests\":\"There is \\u003cb\\u003eNO\\u003c/b\\u003e Competing Interest.\",\"formattedTitle\":\"From net-zero to zero-fossil in transforming the EU energy system\",\"fulltext\":[{\"header\":\"Highlights\",\"content\":\"\\u003cp\\u003e\\u0026bull; Quantification of the additional effort required for a virtually complete phase-out of fossil fuels in the EU by 2050 beyond a least-cost net-zero scenario\\u003c/p\\u003e\\u003cp\\u003e\\u0026bull; Least-cost net-zero scenario already abates 87% of EU fossil fuel use by 2050 through renewable power, electrification and some bio-based fuels\\u003c/p\\u003e\\u003cp\\u003e\\u0026bull; Carbon-neutral e-fuels are crucial to replace the remaining 13% of hardest-to-abate fossil fuels, mainly oil-based hydrocarbons and natural gas for international transport and chemicals\\u003c/p\\u003e\\u003cp\\u003e\\u0026bull; Achieving a near-complete fossil phase-out by 2050 roughly doubles marginal abatement costs to 650 \\u0026euro;/tCO2 (500\\u0026ndash;1000 \\u0026euro;/tCO2), compared to \\u0026euro;300/tCO2 in a least-cost net-zero scenario\\u003c/p\\u003e\"},{\"header\":\"Introduction\",\"content\":\"\\u003cp\\u003eAbout three quarters of current EU greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions result from the combustion of fossil fuels (Eurostat, \\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR26\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2024\\u003c/span\\u003e). Therefore, fossil fuel use needs to decline substantially to achieve the 2050 climate neutrality goal legislated by the European Climate Law (EU, \\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR18\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2021\\u003c/span\\u003e). Ahead of the COP28 climate summit in Dubai, the EU outlined its ambition for the world \\u0026ldquo;to be predominantly free of fossil fuels well ahead of 2050\\u0026rdquo; (European Council, \\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR24\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2023\\u003c/span\\u003e). However, this ambition has not translated into concrete EU targets for reducing or phasing out fossil fuel consumption.\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eResidual fossil fuel use can be consistent with the EU\\u0026rsquo;s net-zero goal if the resulting CO2 emissions are mitigated through carbon capture and storage (CCS) at fossil installations, or if non-captured fossil CO2 is compensated with carbon dioxide removal (CDR). However, the energy sector competes with other emitting sectors, such as agriculture and industrial processes, for both CCS or CDR compensation. Moreover, the scale at which CCS and CDR will be available remains uncertain due to challenges related to upscaling, monitoring, reporting and verification (MRV), reversibility, finance, and sustainability impacts (Anderson and Peters, \\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR2\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2016\\u003c/span\\u003e; Fuss et al., \\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR29\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2018\\u003c/span\\u003e; Muratori et al., \\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR42\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2016\\u003c/span\\u003e). Integrated assessment modeling (IAM) scenarios often overlook these aspects, assuming unrealistically fast CCS deployment (Kazlou et al., \\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR36\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2024\\u003c/span\\u003e; Zhang et al., \\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR60\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2024\\u003c/span\\u003e), which may lead to an overestimation of admissible residual fossil fuel use at the point of net-zero (Achakulwisut et al., \\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR1\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2023\\u003c/span\\u003e).\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eThis poses the risk of creating wrong expectations as stakeholders in the energy sector scale down mitigation ambition in anticipation of sufficient future CCS or CDR to abate their fossil emissions. Without clear and realistic expectations about which sectors will be eligible for residual emissions at the point of net-zero, there is the risk that actors collectively slow down the transformation and hold back structural innovations in anticipation of CDR options to compensate their emissions. This underscores the importance of establishing clear eligibility criteria for residual emissions (Brad et al., \\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR7\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2024\\u003c/span\\u003e; Buck et al., \\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR10\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2023\\u003c/span\\u003e; Lund et al., \\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR40\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2023\\u003c/span\\u003e).\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eA possible solution to reduce this risk would be to complement the EU 2050 net-zero target with a target on the full phase-out of fossil fuels that would rule out residual emissions in the energy sector. The appeal of such target mainly lies in creating an additional focal point for the EU energy transition that would signal increased political commitment, create clarity about climate-compatible investment decisions and safeguard against political backlashes (Dolphin et al., \\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR12\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2023\\u003c/span\\u003e). Additionally, a fossil phase-out target would support the EU\\u0026rsquo;s ambition to become independent of fossil fuel imports, a priority that has become even more pressing since the start of the Russo-Ukrainian War (EU Commission, \\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR20\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2022\\u003c/span\\u003e).\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eHowever, the economic and feasibility challenges of an EU fossil phase-out by 2050 are still unclear. Most EU net-zero scenario studies anticipate some residual fossil energy use by 2050, finding CDR compensation more cost-effective than eliminating the last 10\\u0026ndash;20% of energy emissions (Boitier et al., \\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR6\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2023\\u003c/span\\u003e; EU Commission, \\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR21\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2018\\u003c/span\\u003e; European Scientific Advisory Board on Climate Change, \\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR25\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2023\\u003c/span\\u003e; Rodrigues et al., \\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR50\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2022\\u003c/span\\u003e). While global IAM studies have identified abatement limits predominantly in agriculture and partially also in the energy sector (Edelenbosch et al., \\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR13\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2024\\u003c/span\\u003e; Fuhrman et al., \\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR28\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2024\\u003c/span\\u003e; Luderer et al., \\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR39\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2018\\u003c/span\\u003e; Vuuren et al., \\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR59\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2018\\u003c/span\\u003e), they have not specifically investigated a full fossil phase-out. In contrast, energy system models (ESMs) have analyzed 100% renewable energy systems in the EU, but differ substantially from IAMs by focusing on the hourly dynamics of renewable energy supply without addressing real-world transformation inertias, demand side mitigation dynamics, as well as macroeconomic implications (Breyer et al., \\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR9\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2022b\\u003c/span\\u003e, \\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR8\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2022a\\u003c/span\\u003e; Victoria et al., \\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR58\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2022\\u003c/span\\u003e). While ESMs have demonstrated the technical feasibility of a 100% renewable energy system, a plausible full-system pathway to a complete fossil phase-out remains unclear.\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eThe goal of this study is to explore the transformation dynamics, challenges and feasibility of a full fossil phase-out in EU net-zero scenarios up to 2050 using the IAM REMIND. We analyze energy transition pathways in a set of net-zero scenarios with varying levels of residual fossil use and derive abatement cost curves to understand the cost of abating the last 10\\u0026ndash;15% of fossil emissions in the EU energy sector by 2050. We find that a near-zero fossil EU energy system can be reached in 2050 but results in increasing marginal costs up to 650 EUR/tCO2 driven by a substantial demand for expensive e-fuels to substitute residual fossils primarily in chemicals, aviation and shipping.\\u003c/p\\u003e\"},{\"header\":\"Results\",\"content\":\"\\u003cdiv id=\\\"Sec3\\\" class=\\\"Section2\\\"\\u003e \\u003ch2\\u003eTransformation to a Fossil-free EU Energy System\\u003c/h2\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eWe explore a range of EU net-zero (NZ) scenarios up to 2050 with different levels of residual fossil energy (Ext Data Table\\u0026nbsp;1, Methods section M2). We do this by varying the availability of CO2 storage and CDR, which jointly determine the allowed amount of residual fossil energy use at the point of net-zero. First, we model a least-cost NZ scenario (\\u003cem\\u003eLeastCost-NZ\\u003c/em\\u003e) where CO2 storage injection is free to scale up to 2 Gt/yr in the EU at low injection costs. Furthermore, we optimistically assume that the EU land carbon sink can increase from the current level of 240 MtCO2/yr to 370 MtCO2/yr in 2050, exceeding the 2030 goal of 310 MtCO2/yr (European Commission, \\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR23\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2021\\u003c/span\\u003e). This is our benchmark net-zero scenario without a fossil phase-out. Second, we model a fossil-free NZ scenario (\\u003cem\\u003eFosFree-NZ)\\u003c/em\\u003e where CO2 storage injection is limited to 110 MtCO2/yr, which is the lowest setting for the model to still reach the net-zero target, with the land carbon sink remaining at 240 MtCO2/yr. To explore the solution space around these two core scenarios, we run intermediate scenarios with gradual changes in allowed CO2 injection rates (\\u003cem\\u003eIntm1-NZ\\u003c/em\\u003e, \\u003cem\\u003eIntm2-NZ\\u003c/em\\u003e, \\u003cem\\u003eIntm3-NZ\\u003c/em\\u003e, \\u003cem\\u003eIntm4-NZ\\u003c/em\\u003e) as well as sensitivity scenarios with high costs of green hydrogen (\\u003cem\\u003eexpH2\\u003c/em\\u003e), low costs of direct air capture (\\u003cem\\u003echeapDAC\\u003c/em\\u003e), high biomass availability (\\u003cem\\u003ehighBio\\u003c/em\\u003e) and low-cost e-fuel imports at a fixed price of 150 EUR/MWh (\\u003cem\\u003ehighImp\\u003c/em\\u003e) (see Ext Data Table\\u0026nbsp;1 and Ext Data Table\\u0026nbsp;2).\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eAll EU NZ scenarios investigated in this study are characterized by a strong reduction in fossil fuel use. In comparison to the 1.5-2\\u0026deg;C scenarios from the IPCC Assessment Report 6 (AR6) database (IPCC, \\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR35\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2022\\u003c/span\\u003e) for the European Region, they explore a range of considerably deeper fossil phase-out trajectories, including a scenario with a virtually full phase-out by 2050. While the EU currently depends on fossil fuels for about 75% of its primary energy, in our scenarios this share drops to about 60% by 2030 and to less than 1% by 2050 in the \\u003cem\\u003eFosFree-NZ\\u003c/em\\u003e scenario, and 16% by 2050 in the \\u003cem\\u003eLeastCost-NZ\\u003c/em\\u003e scenario (Fig.\\u0026nbsp;\\u003cspan refid=\\\"Fig1\\\" class=\\\"InternalRef\\\"\\u003e1\\u003c/span\\u003eA). These results stand in stark contrast to the majority of 1.5-2\\u0026deg;C scenarios from the AR6 database, where fossil fuels account for 19\\u0026ndash;57% (10th to 90th percentile range, used throughout this paper for AR6 data) of primary energy in 2050 in the European region (Fig.\\u0026nbsp;\\u003cspan refid=\\\"Fig1\\\" class=\\\"InternalRef\\\"\\u003e1\\u003c/span\\u003eA, grey lines). Similarly, EU-focused transformation scenarios from the European Climate and Energy Modeling Forum (ECEMF) also indicate residual fossil energy use in 2050 (Fig.\\u0026nbsp;\\u003cspan refid=\\\"Fig1\\\" class=\\\"InternalRef\\\"\\u003e1\\u003c/span\\u003eA, blue lines).\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eLooking at a broad set of indicators in 2050, the deep fossil fuel reduction in our EU net-zero scenarios is enabled by an accelerated energy transition until mid-century, going beyond most 1.5\\u0026deg;C scenarios in the AR6 database (Fig.\\u0026nbsp;\\u003cspan refid=\\\"Fig1\\\" class=\\\"InternalRef\\\"\\u003e1\\u003c/span\\u003eB-K). This is mainly achieved by direct electrification of energy end-use in buildings, road transport and industrial process heat based on renewable electricity as the electricity share in final energy increases to close to 60% in 2050 (Fig.\\u0026nbsp;\\u003cspan refid=\\\"Fig1\\\" class=\\\"InternalRef\\\"\\u003e1\\u003c/span\\u003eG). As a consequence, the share of hydrocarbon energy carriers in final energy decreases substantially (from 75% in 2020 to 27\\u0026ndash;30%, Fig.\\u0026nbsp;\\u003cspan refid=\\\"Fig1\\\" class=\\\"InternalRef\\\"\\u003e1\\u003c/span\\u003eF), which is also driven by efficiency improvements from electrification that lead to an overall reduction of total final energy demand by about 40% relative to 2020 (Ext Data Fig.\\u0026nbsp;\\u003cspan refid=\\\"Fig1\\\" class=\\\"InternalRef\\\"\\u003e1\\u003c/span\\u003e). Complementing electrification, green hydrogen-based fuels substitute fossil fuels in hard-to-electrify sectors as their share increases to 8\\u0026ndash;19% of final energy by 2050 (Fig.\\u0026nbsp;\\u003cspan refid=\\\"Fig1\\\" class=\\\"InternalRef\\\"\\u003e1\\u003c/span\\u003eH). Through a combination of all these levers, the \\u003cem\\u003eFosFree-NZ\\u003c/em\\u003e scenario achieves a virtually complete phase-out of fossil fuels, eliminating fossil fuel CO2 emissions without relying on large-scale bioenergy production (Fig.\\u0026nbsp;\\u003cspan refid=\\\"Fig1\\\" class=\\\"InternalRef\\\"\\u003e1\\u003c/span\\u003eC and I). This enables net-zero GHG emissions in the EU by 2050 at considerably lower CCS and CDR deployment in comparison to most AR6 and ECEMF scenarios (Fig.\\u0026nbsp;\\u003cspan refid=\\\"Fig1\\\" class=\\\"InternalRef\\\"\\u003e1\\u003c/span\\u003eJ and K).\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e \\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eMoving from the current fossil-based system in 2020 to the 2050 state, energy flows fundamentally change in our scenarios as renewable power becomes the backbone of a fossil-free energy system (Fig.\\u0026nbsp;\\u003cspan refid=\\\"Fig2\\\" class=\\\"InternalRef\\\"\\u003e2\\u003c/span\\u003e). Relative to 2020, fossil primary energy consumption decreases by 87% in 2050 in \\u003cem\\u003eLeastCost-NZ\\u003c/em\\u003e, and even by 99.5% in \\u003cem\\u003eFosFree-NZ\\u003c/em\\u003e, i.e. reaching a near zero-fossil system. Fossil fuels are largely substituted by (non-biomass) renewable electricity which is either used directly or indirectly via electricity-based fuels. By moving away from the combustion of hydrocarbons, this transformation comes with considerable efficiency gains in terms of total primary energy consumption (incl. renewables used for imported e-fuels), which decreases by around 30% in 2050 relative to 2020.\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e \\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eThe transformation to a fossil-free EU energy system can be characterized by three different steps: decarbonization of the power sector (Fig.\\u0026nbsp;\\u003cspan refid=\\\"Fig3\\\" class=\\\"InternalRef\\\"\\u003e3\\u003c/span\\u003eD, Ext Data Fig.\\u0026nbsp;\\u003cspan refid=\\\"Fig2\\\" class=\\\"InternalRef\\\"\\u003e2\\u003c/span\\u003e), direct electrification of end-use sectors (Fig.\\u0026nbsp;\\u003cspan refid=\\\"Fig3\\\" class=\\\"InternalRef\\\"\\u003e3\\u003c/span\\u003eE) and a de-fossilization of residual combustible fuels (Fig.\\u0026nbsp;\\u003cspan refid=\\\"Fig3\\\" class=\\\"InternalRef\\\"\\u003e3\\u003c/span\\u003eF). These steps tend to occur consecutively in time and at increasing marginal cost of abatement. First, at relatively low marginal cost of abatement, the power sector already transitions up the mid-2030s to a system that is largely based on variables renewable energy (VRE) from wind and solar power, which strongly reduces coal consumption (Ext Data Fig.\\u0026nbsp;\\u003cspan refid=\\\"Fig2\\\" class=\\\"InternalRef\\\"\\u003e2\\u003c/span\\u003e). Second, direct electrification of final energy across end-use sectors unfolds up to 2040 (Fig.\\u0026nbsp;\\u003cspan refid=\\\"Fig3\\\" class=\\\"InternalRef\\\"\\u003e3\\u003c/span\\u003eE) and is mainly associated with the substitution of natural gas and oil that are reduced less rapidly than coal (Fig.\\u0026nbsp;\\u003cspan refid=\\\"Fig3\\\" class=\\\"InternalRef\\\"\\u003e3\\u003c/span\\u003eB and C). Finally, a switch to low-carbon fuels (bio-based, hydrogen-based) avoids emissions in hard-to-electrify sectors that require combustible or carbonaceous fuels as the last and most expensive step of the energy transition (Fig.\\u0026nbsp;\\u003cspan refid=\\\"Fig3\\\" class=\\\"InternalRef\\\"\\u003e3\\u003c/span\\u003eF). This full de-fossilization of residual hydrocarbons in the last 10\\u0026ndash;15 years is the main difference between the \\u003cem\\u003eLeastCost-NZ\\u003c/em\\u003e and the \\u003cem\\u003eFosFree-NZ\\u003c/em\\u003e, which show similar levels of total hydrocarbon demand as the \\u003cem\\u003eLeastCost-NZ\\u003c/em\\u003e already deploys most of the available electrification options until 2050 (Fig.\\u0026nbsp;\\u003cspan refid=\\\"Fig3\\\" class=\\\"InternalRef\\\"\\u003e3\\u003c/span\\u003eF, Ext Data Fig.\\u0026nbsp;\\u003cspan refid=\\\"Fig4\\\" class=\\\"InternalRef\\\"\\u003e4\\u003c/span\\u003e) .\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e \\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003c/div\\u003e\\n\\u003ch3\\u003eResidual Fossils in 2050\\u003c/h3\\u003e\\n\\u003cp\\u003eBy 2050, in the \\u003cem\\u003eLeastCost-NZ\\u003c/em\\u003e scenario, the fossil fuel carbon consumption (FFCC), defined as the carbon content of all fossil fuels in the energy system, drops to 410 MtCO2/yr (Fig.\\u0026nbsp;\\u003cspan refid=\\\"Fig4\\\" class=\\\"InternalRef\\\"\\u003e4\\u003c/span\\u003eA). The FFCC is equivalent to the sum of all energy-related fossil CO2 emissions (i.e. excluding fossil CO2 from cement calcination) and fossil carbon stored by CCS or in durable materials. We use this metric to distinguish between emissions reductions from avoiding fossil fuel use in the first place and permanently storing of fossil fuel carbon. In the \\u003cem\\u003eLeastCost-NZ scenario\\u003c/em\\u003e, fossil fuel carbon storage plays some role as 40 MtCO2/yr are stored and 370 MtCO2/yr are emitted. In \\u003cem\\u003eFosFree-NZ\\u003c/em\\u003e, the FFCC reaches very low levels of 16 MtCO2/yr, which means that only 0.5% of the fossil fuel carbon used in 2020 is fed into the energy system by 2050. Most of this carbon is emitted as the role of fossil carbon storage diminishes in \\u003cem\\u003eFosFree-NZ\\u003c/em\\u003e since almost all geological carbon storage potential, limited to 110 MtCO2/yr, is required for non-fossil carbon to generate CDR.\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eResidual fossil fuel CO2 emissions in 2050 in the \\u003cem\\u003eLeastCost-NZ\\u003c/em\\u003e scenario mainly come from oil-based liquid fuels and natural gas used in the chemicals sector (as fuel and feedstock), in international shipping and aviation (oil-based liquid fuels) and to a smaller extent in buildings (remaining gas boilers) (Fig.\\u0026nbsp;\\u003cspan refid=\\\"Fig4\\\" class=\\\"InternalRef\\\"\\u003e4\\u003c/span\\u003eA). In addition to the combustion emissions accounted in these sectors, there are also emissions from the production of fossil fuels (fuel production sector in Fig.\\u0026nbsp;\\u003cspan refid=\\\"Fig4\\\" class=\\\"InternalRef\\\"\\u003e4\\u003c/span\\u003eA). The electricity, district heating and domestic transport sector are almost completely fossil-free even in \\u003cem\\u003eLeastCost-NZ\\u003c/em\\u003e and the buildings sector largely reduces fossil emissions by more than 80% in 2050 relative to 2020.\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eMoving from the \\u003cem\\u003eLeastCost-NZ\\u003c/em\\u003e towards the \\u003cem\\u003eFosFree-NZ\\u003c/em\\u003e scenario, carbon-neutral fuels substitute residual oil-based liquid hydrocarbons and fossil gas (Fig.\\u0026nbsp;\\u003cspan refid=\\\"Fig4\\\" class=\\\"InternalRef\\\"\\u003e4\\u003c/span\\u003eB). Primarily, e-fuels, i.e. synthetic liquid fuels or chemicals produced from electrolytic hydrogen (Ext Data Fig.\\u0026nbsp;\\u003cspan refid=\\\"Fig5\\\" class=\\\"InternalRef\\\"\\u003e5\\u003c/span\\u003e) and non-fossil CO2 (Ext Data Fig.\\u0026nbsp;\\u003cspan refid=\\\"Fig6\\\" class=\\\"InternalRef\\\"\\u003e6\\u003c/span\\u003e), gradually replace fossil liquids used in chemicals, aviation and shipping. As e-fuels are an expensive mitigation option, they are only deployed at scale once CDR options like BECCS and DACCS are limited, which aligns with previous research (Lehtveer et al., \\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR37\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2019\\u003c/span\\u003e; Mignone et al., \\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR41\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2024\\u003c/span\\u003e; Oshiro and Fujimori, \\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR44\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2022\\u003c/span\\u003e). Biofuels are also deployed but their use is not expanded in the \\u003cem\\u003eFosFree-NZ\\u003c/em\\u003e scenario as the overall bioenergy potential is limited. However, while in the \\u003cem\\u003eLeastCost-NZ\\u003c/em\\u003e some biomass is used to produce hydrogen, in the \\u003cem\\u003eFosFree-NZ\\u003c/em\\u003e this biomass is shifted to produce biogas (SI Fig.\\u0026nbsp;\\u003cspan refid=\\\"Fig1\\\" class=\\\"InternalRef\\\"\\u003e1\\u003c/span\\u003e) which replaces part of the fossil gas used in industry and buildings. Additional electrification and energy demand reduction further reduce the role of fossil gas. Overall, this enables a near complete fossil phase-out across energy supply and energy end-use sectors with a fossil share of primary energy below 1% (see section M7 Limitations on the Fossil Phase-out for details on near-zero).\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eTotal carbon capture in the EU by 2050 decreases from about 400 MtCO2/yr in the \\u003cem\\u003eLeastCost-NZ\\u003c/em\\u003e scenario to 250 MtCO2/yr in \\u003cem\\u003eFosFree-NZ\\u003c/em\\u003e, induced by the limitations on CCS (Ext Data Fig.\\u0026nbsp;\\u003cspan refid=\\\"Fig6\\\" class=\\\"InternalRef\\\"\\u003e6\\u003c/span\\u003e). Instead of injection into geological storage, captured carbon is increasingly used for e-fuel production, taking up more than half of the carbon captured in the \\u003cem\\u003eFosFree-NZ.\\u003c/em\\u003e Most of this carbon is biogenic, as direct air capture (DAC) is not competitive by 2050 in any of the standard scenarios (and deployed only in the \\u003cem\\u003echeapDAC\\u003c/em\\u003e sensitivity scenarios, see Ext Data Fig.\\u0026nbsp;\\u003cspan refid=\\\"Fig6\\\" class=\\\"InternalRef\\\"\\u003e6\\u003c/span\\u003e). In \\u003cem\\u003eLeastCost-NZ\\u003c/em\\u003e, CCS reaches about 400 MtCO2/yr, which is still much below the scenario-specific limit of 2000 MtCO2/yr, while in \\u003cem\\u003eFosFree-NZ\\u003c/em\\u003e CCS is reduced precisely to the scenario-specific limit of 110 MtCO2/yr. This minimum level of deployment is required to generate sufficient CDR for achieving economy-wide GHG neutrality (Ext Data Fig.\\u0026nbsp;7).\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e \\u003c/p\\u003e\\n\\u003ch3\\u003eCost Implications of an EU Fossil Phase-out\\u003c/h3\\u003e\\n\\u003cp\\u003eA complete fossil fuel phase-out incurs additional costs beyond those for reaching the 2050 EU NZ target. Marginal abatement cost (MAC) in 2050 (represented by CO2 prices required for the model to reach NZ) increase from 300 EUR/tCO2 in the \\u003cem\\u003eLeastCost-NZ\\u003c/em\\u003e scenario to about 650 EUR/tCO2 in the \\u003cem\\u003eFosFree-NZ\\u003c/em\\u003e scenario (Fig.\\u0026nbsp;\\u003cspan refid=\\\"Fig5\\\" class=\\\"InternalRef\\\"\\u003e5\\u003c/span\\u003eA). The MAC curve in this domain of low FFCC aligns well with the fuel-switching CO2 prices that are required to make liquid e-fuels competitive with liquid fossil fuels based on the energy prices derived from our model (see dashed red line in Fig.\\u0026nbsp;\\u003cspan refid=\\\"Fig5\\\" class=\\\"InternalRef\\\"\\u003e5\\u003c/span\\u003eA). This means that the MAC for the last about 400 MtCO2/yr of FFCC are governed by the cost difference between e-fuels and fossil liquids (see also SI Fig.\\u0026nbsp;\\u003cspan refid=\\\"Fig2\\\" class=\\\"InternalRef\\\"\\u003e2\\u003c/span\\u003e for sensitivity scenarios). The increase in fuel switching CO2 prices between \\u003cem\\u003eLeastCost-NZ\\u003c/em\\u003e and \\u003cem\\u003eFosFree-NZ\\u003c/em\\u003e can be explained by increasing e-fuel cost as a result of increasing demand and decreasing cost of oil-based liquids as a result of decreasing oil demand (SI Fig.\\u0026nbsp;\\u003cspan refid=\\\"Fig3\\\" class=\\\"InternalRef\\\"\\u003e3\\u003c/span\\u003e).\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eAt low FFCC, marginal abatement costs are quite sensitive to scenario assumptions (Fig.\\u0026nbsp;\\u003cspan refid=\\\"Fig4\\\" class=\\\"InternalRef\\\"\\u003e4\\u003c/span\\u003eB). In scenarios with higher availability of biomass (\\u003cem\\u003eHighBio\\u003c/em\\u003e) or low-cost e-fuel imports at 150 EUR/MWh (\\u003cem\\u003eHighImp\\u003c/em\\u003e), MAC decrease in the \\u003cem\\u003eFosFree-NZ\\u003c/em\\u003e scenario setting to 570 and 510 EUR/tCO2 respectively. In contrast, under high cost of green hydrogen (\\u003cem\\u003eexpH2\\u003c/em\\u003e) or without e-fuel imports (\\u003cem\\u003enoImp\\u003c/em\\u003e), MAC substantially increase to 800 and 1000 EUR/tCO2, respectively. This illustrates that CO2 prices required for a full fossil phase-out strongly depend on the availability of low-cost of carbon-neutral fuels.\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e \\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eAggregate consumption losses, which are representative of the total cost of climate change mitigation, are not as sensitive to our scenario assumptions as MAC at the point of NZ. The relative changes in aggregate EU 2025\\u0026ndash;2050 consumption losses across scenarios (calculated relative to a weak climate policy scenario, see Methods M5) are considerably smaller than the increase in MAC (Fig.\\u0026nbsp;\\u003cspan refid=\\\"Fig5\\\" class=\\\"InternalRef\\\"\\u003e5\\u003c/span\\u003eC). This is plausible because only specific sectors that still demand liquid or gaseous hydrocarbons (chemicals and international transport) see a strong relative increase in energy prices in \\u003cem\\u003eFosFree-NZ\\u003c/em\\u003e, while the cost of energy service provision in electrifiable sectors, e.g. for mobility or heating, is much less affected by the additional transformation of a fossil phase-out (SI Fig.\\u0026nbsp;\\u003cspan refid=\\\"Fig4\\\" class=\\\"InternalRef\\\"\\u003e4\\u003c/span\\u003e).\\u003c/p\\u003e\\n\\u003ch3\\u003eFeasibility challenges of scaling-up e-fuels or CCS\\u003c/h3\\u003e\\n\\u003cp\\u003eReaching the EU NZ target with or without residual fossil energy has implications, in particular, for the required deployment of e-fuels and CCS. EU e-fuel demand rises to more than 1000 TWh/yr in 2050 in the \\u003cem\\u003eFosFree-NZ\\u003c/em\\u003e scenario and European CCS capacity in the \\u003cem\\u003eLeastCost-NZ\\u003c/em\\u003e scenario grows to about 400 MtCO2/yr. Given the nascent state of either technology, this poses substantial scale-up challenges.\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eFor e-fuels, global project announcements add up to 56 TWh/y by 2030, of which less than 1% are already operational and less than 7% have reached a final investment decision or are under construction (Fig.\\u0026nbsp;\\u003cspan refid=\\\"Fig6\\\" class=\\\"InternalRef\\\"\\u003e6\\u003c/span\\u003ea). Assuming 10 TWh/yr are realized by 2030 based on existing EU e-fuel quotas, global e-fuel production could only supply EU e-fuel demand in the \\u003cem\\u003eFosFree-NZ\\u003c/em\\u003e scenario if in 2030\\u0026ndash;2050 it grew as rapidly as solar PV over the last 20 years and the EU secured a substantial share of the global market. Lower growth rates of e.g. wind or hydropower in the same historical period would not suffice.\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eFor CCS, European project announcements are 168 MtCO2/yr by 2030, of which only 1% are operational and less than 2.5% are under construction (Fig.\\u0026nbsp;\\u003cspan refid=\\\"Fig6\\\" class=\\\"InternalRef\\\"\\u003e6\\u003c/span\\u003ec). Assuming a historical failure rate of 88% for announced projects (Kazlou et al., \\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR36\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2024\\u003c/span\\u003e), total European CCS capacity would reach 25 MtCO2/yr by 2030, which would still be below the EU target of 50 MtCO2/yr (EU Commission, \\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR19\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2023\\u003c/span\\u003e). Starting from 25 MtCO2/yr in 2030, the \\u003cem\\u003eLeastCost-NZ\\u003c/em\\u003e scenario would require CCS in Europe to grow up to 2050 almost as fast as US tight oil production over the last 17 years, while lower growth rates of e.g. total US oil production in the same historical period would not suffice.\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003e \\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eThere is a trade-off between high scale-up requirements for either CCS capacity or e-fuel production depending on whether or not the EU NZ target is reached with a full fossil phase-out. While long-term growth rates for CCS in the \\u003cem\\u003eLeastCost-NZ\\u003c/em\\u003e scenario would not need to be as high as for e-fuels in the \\u003cem\\u003eFosFree-NZ\\u003c/em\\u003e scenario, the scale-up of either technology can only be achieved with a short-term policy push up to 2030 as well as sustained long-term growth rates afterwards.\\u003c/p\\u003e\"},{\"header\":\"Discussion\",\"content\":\"\\u003cp\\u003eIn this study, we investigate the transformation dynamics and challenges of a phase-out of fossil fuel consumption in the EU energy system by 2050. This transformation can be broadly characterized by three steps that occur consecutively in time and at increasing marginal cost of abatement: decarbonization of the power sector, direct electrification and a switch to carbon-neutral residual fuels. The first two steps are also present in least-cost net-zero scenario (\\u003cem\\u003eLeastCost-NZ\\u003c/em\\u003e) and are already quite impactful: Fossil primary energy consumption in the EU decreases by 87% in 2050 relative 2020 at moderate carbon prices of about 300 EUR/tCO2 driven mainly by a transition to renewable power, direct electrification and some bio-based fuels. It reduces fossil fuel carbon consumption to 410 MtCO2/yr, of which 370 MtCo2/yr are emitted, which brings fossil fuel CO2 emissions down to 13% of 2020 levels. At this point, electrification potentials are largely exploited such that the remaining transformation, moving from a least-cost to a fossil-free net-zero scenario, is focused on the energy supply-side via the provision of non-fossil hydrocarbons. Here, mainly oil-based liquid fuels are substituted by carbon-neutral e-fuels and remaining natural gas is replaced with biogas. Marginal abatement costs in this domain are governed by the fuel-switching CO2 prices between liquid e-fuels and their fossil counterparts. A complete fossil phase-out drives up marginal abatement costs to about 650 EUR/tCO2 (500\\u0026ndash;1000 EUR/tCO2 across sensitivities), incurred in the hardest-to-abate sectors of the energy system (chemical industry and international transport) and depending on the cost and scarcity of carbon-neutral e-fuels. Meeting the corresponding EU e-fuel demand of about 1000 TWh/yr in 2050 comes with substantial scale-up challenges for this nascent technology. At the same time, it decreases the pressure on CCS scale-up that would otherwise be needed to reach the EU net-zero target.\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eA key difference between the net-zero scenario with and without residual fossil energy use is the shift from using fossil fuels in combination with CDR compensation to carbon-neutral e-fuels. While this substantially reduces the reliance on CO2 storage, bioenergy with carbon and capture only drops by one third in the fossil phase-out scenario as these technologies are needed for e-fuel production. Therefore, if the availability of non-fossil (biogenic or atmospheric) CO2 becomes a bottleneck, neither CCS nor e-fuels can deliver and the EU net-zero goal is fundamentally at risk.\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eThe increase in marginal abatement cost for the last 13% of fossil fuel CO2 emissions is substantial in some of our scenarios but needs to be contextualized. First, our scenarios only feature a basic implementation of EU e-fuel imports with either fixed import shares or fixed import prices. Modeling global markets of hydrogen and e-fuels across all regions could make carbon-neutral fuels cheaper than estimated in our range if the best renewable sites can be accessed (Hampp et al., \\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR31\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2023\\u003c/span\\u003e; Pfennig et al., \\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR46\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2023\\u003c/span\\u003e). Still, we think our assessment covers a broad set of plausible assumptions. Second, we do not specifically look at demand-side measures to further reduce residual hydrocarbon demand e.g. by circularity in the chemicals sector or reduced air travel (Grubler et al., \\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR30\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2018\\u003c/span\\u003e; Sharmina et al., \\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR54\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2020\\u003c/span\\u003e; Stegmann et al., \\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR56\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2022\\u003c/span\\u003e). Third, the high costs are incurred only in specific sectors with a small share in the overall economy and aggregate economic costs do not increase as much. This suggests that transformational challenges can be managed more easily if concerns about the distribution of cost are addressed.\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eAt the heart of a decision on an EU fossil phase-out target by 2050 lies a fundamental trade-off involving different types of risks and uncertainties. On the one hand, such a target would create an additional focal point for the EU energy transition, avoid mitigation deterrence due to wrong expectations about net-zero compatible fossil use and provide clear signals to investors about the course of the energy transition. Moreover, bringing residual emissions in the EU energy sector to near-zero would reduce the need for CO2 storage which faces challenges of technology upscaling and public support (Budinis et al., \\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR11\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2018\\u003c/span\\u003e; Kazlou et al., \\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR36\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2024\\u003c/span\\u003e; Oltra et al., \\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR43\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2022\\u003c/span\\u003e). On the other hand, a full fossil phase-out comes with a considerable increase in marginal abatement costs, as the last fossil fuels need to be replaced by expensive carbon-neutral e-fuels. These e-fuels would need to be supplied in significant amounts of about 1000 TWh/yr, which is in the order of magnitude of the current EU liquid fuel consumption in aviation and shipping. They would either need to be imported or produced at higher cost in the EU. A viable middle course could therefore be to define partial fossil phase-out targets that only allow fossils to a certain percentage in specific sectors (similar to the aviation quotas in ReFuelEU, EU (\\u003cspan citationid=\\\"CR15\\\" class=\\\"CitationRef\\\"\\u003e2023a\\u003c/span\\u003e)). This would provide some planning security but limit the transformational burden on specific hard-to-electrify sectors. Ultimately, this trade-off involves different layers of social, economic and political aspects that go beyond the scope of our study and that would need to complement the findings we derive from an energy system modeling perspective.\\u003c/p\\u003e \\u003cp\\u003eTotal words: ~ 3600\\u003c/p\\u003e\"},{\"header\":\"Declarations\",\"content\":\"\\u003ch2\\u003eData Availability\\u003c/h2\\u003e\\n\\u003cp\\u003eAll data are publicly available. Scenario modeling data generated and used by this study can be found on Zenodo: https://zenodo.org/records/14016561. For the scenario comparison data, we used the AR6 and ECEMF scenario explorers (IPCC, 2022; Pietzcker et al., 2023). For e-fuel and CCS projects, we retrieved data from the IEA Hydrogen Projects Database (IEA, 2022) and the IEA CCUS Database (IEA, 2024). For calculating historical growth rates, we used data from the Energy Institute (Energy Institute, 2024).\\u003c/p\\u003e\\n\\u003ch2\\u003eCode Availability\\u003c/h2\\u003e\\n\\u003cp\\u003eThe REMIND code used to generate the results can be found on GitHub: https://github.com/fschreyer/remind/tree/FossilFree_master. The data analysis scripts and plotting data can be found at https://zenodo.org/records/14016561.\\u003c/p\\u003e\\n\\u003ch2\\u003eAcknowledgements\\u003c/h2\\u003e\\n\\u003cp\\u003eThis research has received funding from the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research under grant agreement 03SFK5A0-2 (Ariadne; F.S., F.U., A.O., R.P.) and the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme under grant agreement 101022622 (ECEMF; R.R.). We thank F. Benke for providing support with the visualizations. Moreover, we thank the research software engineering group in the REMIND team for technical support and the IT team at PIK for providing the high-performance cluster computing environment used for the generation of the results.\\u003c/p\\u003e\\n\\u003ch2\\u003eAuthor Contributions\\u003c/h2\\u003e\\n\\u003cp\\u003eF.S., F.U. and G.L. conceptualized the research. F.S. conducted the scenario modeling analysis and A.O. conducted the upscaling analysis. F.S., R.P., F.U., A.O., A.M., F.L. and G.L. validated and interpreted the modeling results. F.S., F.U., R.P., A.O., A.M., R.R., J.S. and G.L. contributed to the concepts and implementation of the modeling system. F.S. wrote the manuscript with contributions from A.O., F.U., R.P., A.M., J.S., F.L. and G.L. F.U., R.P. and G.L. contributed to the acquisition of funding used for this project.\\u003c/p\\u003e\\n\\u003ch2\\u003eCompeting interests\\u003c/h2\\u003e\\n\\u003cp\\u003eThe authors declare no competing interests.\\u003c/p\\u003e\"},{\"header\":\"References\",\"content\":\"\\u003col\\u003e\\n\\u003cli\\u003eAchakulwisut, P., Erickson, P., Guivarch, C., Schaeffer, R., Brutschin, E., Pye, S., 2023. Global fossil fuel reduction pathways under different climate mitigation strategies and ambitions. Nat Commun 14, 5425. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-41105-z\\u003c/li\\u003e\\n\\u003cli\\u003eAnderson, K., Peters, G., 2016. The trouble with negative emissions. 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Energy Economics 64, 583\\u0026ndash;599. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2016.11.018\\u003c/li\\u003e\\n\\u003cli\\u003ePilli, R., Alkama, R., Cescatti, A., Kurz, W.A., Grassi, G., 2022. The European forest Carbon budget under future climate conditions and current management practices. https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2022-35\\u003c/li\\u003e\\n\\u003cli\\u003eRodrigues, R., Pietzcker, R., Fragkos, P., Price, J., McDowall, W., Siskos, P., Fotiou, T., Luderer, G., Capros, P., 2022. Narrative-driven alternative roads to achieve mid-century CO2 net neutrality in Europe. Energy 239, 121908. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2021.121908\\u003c/li\\u003e\\n\\u003cli\\u003eRottoli, M., Dirnaichner, A., Pietzcker, R., Schreyer, F., Luderer, G., 2021. Alternative electrification pathways for light-duty vehicles in the European transport sector. Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment 99, 103005. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.2021.103005\\u003c/li\\u003e\\n\\u003cli\\u003eRuiz, P., Nijs, W., Tarvydas, D., Sgobbi, A., Zucker, A., Pilli, R., Jonsson, R., Camia, A., Thiel, C., Hoyer-Klick, C., Dalla Longa, F., Kober, T., Badger, J., Volker, P., Elbersen, B.S., Brosowski, A., Thr\\u0026auml;n, D., 2019. ENSPRESO - an open, EU-28 wide, transparent and coherent database of wind, solar and biomass energy potentials. Energy Strategy Reviews 26, 100379. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.esr.2019.100379\\u003c/li\\u003e\\n\\u003cli\\u003eSchreyer, F., Ueckerdt, F., Pietzcker, R., Rodrigues, R., Rottoli, M., Madeddu, S., Pehl, M., Hasse, R., Luderer, G., 2024. Distinct roles of direct and indirect electrification in pathways to a renewables-dominated European energy system. One Earth 7, 226\\u0026ndash;241. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2024.01.015\\u003c/li\\u003e\\n\\u003cli\\u003eSharmina, M., Edelenbosch, O.Y., Wilson, C., Freeman, R., Gernaat, D.E.H.J., Gilbert, P., Larkin, A., Littleton, E.W., Traut, M., Vuuren, D.P. van, Vaughan, N.E., Wood, F.R., Qu\\u0026eacute;r\\u0026eacute;, C.L., 2020. Decarbonising the critical sectors of aviation, shipping, road freight and industry to limit warming to 1.5\\u0026ndash;2\\u0026deg;C. Climate Policy 0, 1\\u0026ndash;20. https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2020.1831430\\u003c/li\\u003e\\n\\u003cli\\u003eSievert, K., Schmidt, T.S., Steffen, B., 2024. Considering technology characteristics to project future costs of direct air capture. Joule S2542435124000606. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joule.2024.02.005\\u003c/li\\u003e\\n\\u003cli\\u003eStegmann, P., Daioglou, V., Londo, M., van Vuuren, D.P., Junginger, M., 2022. Plastic futures and their CO2 emissions. Nature 612, 272\\u0026ndash;276. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-022-05422-5\\u003c/li\\u003e\\n\\u003cli\\u003eUNFCCC, 2022. National Inventory Submissions 2022.\\u003c/li\\u003e\\n\\u003cli\\u003eVictoria, M., Zeyen, E., Brown, T., 2022. Speed of technological transformations required in Europe to achieve different climate goals. Joule 6, 1066\\u0026ndash;1086. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joule.2022.04.016\\u003c/li\\u003e\\n\\u003cli\\u003eVuuren, D.P. van, Stehfest, E., Gernaat, D.E.H.J., Berg, M., Bijl, D.L., Boer, H.S., Daioglou, V., Doelman, J.C., Edelenbosch, O.Y., Harmsen, M., Hof, A.F., Sluisveld, M.A.E., 2018. Alternative pathways to the 1.5 \\u0026deg;C target reduce the need for negative emission technologies. Nature Climate Change 8, 391\\u0026ndash;397. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0119-8\\u003c/li\\u003e\\n\\u003cli\\u003eZhang, Y., Jackson, C., Krevor, S., 2024. The feasibility of reaching gigatonne scale CO2 storage by mid-century. Nat Commun 15, 6913. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-51226-8\\u003c/li\\u003e\\n\\u003c/ol\\u003e\"},{\"header\":\"Methods\",\"content\":\"\\u003ch3\\u003eM1. Model Description\\u003c/h3\\u003e\\n\\u003cp\\u003eWe use a version of the Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) REMIND based on the release version 3.3.1, which can be found on GitHub (https://github.com/fschreyer/remind/tree/FossilFree_master). REMIND is an energy-economy model that allows to investigate transformation pathways with respect to different regional or global climate targets (Baumstark et al., 2021). It conducts an interporal Ramsey-type welfare maximization including a detailed energy system as well as representations of the mitigation of non-CO2 emissions in land use and other sectors. We apply the model in a setting of 21 world regions including 8 regions of the European Union (EU) to meet a global cumulative peak CO2 budget of 650 GtCO2 from 2020 representing a 1.5C scenario and the EU regions, specifically, to jointly meet the net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions goal in 2050.\\u003c/p\\u003e\\n\\u003cp\\u003eREMIND resolves key mitigation options for a deep transformation of the energy system. It covers all energy demand across the end-use sectors buildings, industry, transport and carbon dioxide removal including carriers used for energy purposes as well as material use (feedstocks). The model features an industry sector with subsectors including a steel, cement, chemicals and other industry sector (Pehl et al., 2023), a detailed representation of passenger and freight transport (Rottoli et al., 2021) and a comprehensive energy supply system including technologies to produce electricity-based hydrogen and hydrocarbons (Luderer et al., 2022; Pietzcker et al., 2017; Schreyer et al., 2024). Novel technologies are subject either to endogenous learning (VRE technologies, electrolysis, direct air capture) based on installed capacity (learning-by-doing) or exogenous cost projections over time. CO2 can be captured in the model from different streams (energy supply, industry, direct air capture) and can be either stored geologically (CCS) or used for the production of synthetic liquid or gaseous fuels (CCU). Moreover, the model features a parameterization of VRE integration and flexibility effects in a power system with fluctuating renewables. For a more detailed description please see the above references on different aspects of the modeling system.\\u003c/p\\u003e\\n\\u003cp\\u003eThere are a number of modeling features that are particularly relevant for the results of this study. First, carbon prices (referred to as marginal abatement cost in the main text) and energy prices are an endogenous outcome of the model runs. The model adjusts carbon price trajectories across iterations until all regional and global climate targets are met. The 2050 EU carbon price can therefore be interpreted as the marginal abatement cost to reach net-zero emissions in 2050. Energy prices are numerically computed shadow prices of energy balance equations in the model (secondary energy balance and final energy balance). They represent the monetary gain the model sees for having an additional unit of the respective energy carrier at free disposal.\\u003c/p\\u003e\\n\\u003cp\\u003eSecond, the representation of green hydrogen production has been improved relative to previous model versions. Hydrogen can be produced from different energy carriers, including electricity, biomass, natural gas and coal. However, for electrolytic hydrogen, i.e. green hydrogen, there is challenge of capturing the option of flexible electrolysis operation in a power system with fluctuating renewables. As REMIND only matches supply and demand in 5-year time steps, the dynamics of a VRE-based power system have to be parameterized based on results from hourly power system models (Pietzcker et al., 2017). To parameterize the flexible operation of electrolysis, we used data from the power system model Enertile for high-VRE scenarios of Germany (Frauenhofer ISI, 2023) to derive a relation between the share of electrolysis in annual electricity demand and the average electricity price for electrolysis normalized by the annual average electricity price. We used this relation to reduce the electricity price that electrolysis sees in REMIND depending on the share of electrolysis in total power demand. In our standard net-zero scenarios, this results in a range of about 20 (\\u003cem\\u003eLeastCost-NZ\\u003c/em\\u003e) to 35 EUR/MWh (\\u003cem\\u003eFosFree-NZ\\u003c/em\\u003e) average EU electricity price for electrolysis in 2050.\\u003c/p\\u003e\\n\\u003cp\\u003eThird, we represent the option of producing synthetic (liquid) fuels and synthetic gas via two technologies that can convert hydrogen and CO2 to hydrocarbon liquids or gas respectively. Liquid synthetic fuel production is parameterized based on the Fischer-Tropsch synthesis technology including subsequent cracking of hydrocarbons, while the synthetic gas technology represents a methanation process. For liquid fuel production, we do not differentiate between different energy carriers (gasoline, diesel, kerosene, naphtha etc.) but implicitly assume that the process is optimized for a selectivity of hydrocarbons that fits the liquid fuel demand profile of REMIND. In the text, we refer to the outputs of the technologies as (liquid) e-fuel and e-gas as a simplification although the hydrogen used in these synthetic production processes may originate to a small share also from other technologies than electrolysis (see Ext Data Fig 5). Finally, we consider the combustion of synthetic fuels as carbon-neutral and account their emissions with the sector that captured the CO2 to feed into the process. This is in line with accounting regulation of the EU emissions trading system (ETS), which only treats permanent storage of CO2 as emissions abatement (not CCU) and combustion of CCU-based synthetic fuels as carbon-neutral (EU, 2023b; European Commission, 2023).\\u003c/p\\u003e\\n\\u003ch3\\u003eM2. Scenario Assumptions\\u003c/h3\\u003e\\n\\u003cp\\u003eWe distinguish three different categories of net-zero scenarios in our analysis (Ext Data Table 1). First, \\u003cem\\u003eFosFree-NZ\\u003c/em\\u003e and \\u003cem\\u003eLeastCost-NZ\\u003c/em\\u003e are the two \\u003cem\\u003ecore\\u003c/em\\u003e scenarios to compare pathways to net-zero with and without residual fossil energy in our analysis. Second, the \\u003cem\\u003estandard\\u003c/em\\u003e scenarios include the two core scenarios as well as the scenarios with intermediate CCS and CDR assumptions (\\u003cem\\u003eIntm1-NZ\\u003c/em\\u003e, \\u003cem\\u003eIntm2-NZ, Intm3-NZ\\u003c/em\\u003e, \\u003cem\\u003eIntm4-NZ\\u003c/em\\u003e) under default settings with respect to other scenario and technology assumptions. Finally, the \\u003cem\\u003esensitivity\\u003c/em\\u003e scenarios comprise all scenarios with modified scenario assumptions regarding biomass availability (\\u003cem\\u003eHighBio\\u003c/em\\u003e), cost of direct air capture (\\u003cem\\u003echeapDAC\\u003c/em\\u003e), cost of electrolytic hydrogen (\\u003cem\\u003eexpH2\\u003c/em\\u003e) and availability of e-fuel imports to the EU (\\u003cem\\u003eHighImp\\u003c/em\\u003e and \\u003cem\\u003enoImp\\u003c/em\\u003e).\\u003c/p\\u003e\\n\\u003cp\\u003eThere are several assumptions that are common to all of our EU net-zero scenarios. First, all of them reach the EU climate goals for 2030 and 2050 by assumption. For the 2030 target, we use a target of 2120 MtCo2/yr total GHG emissions in the EU including emissions from international transport (bunker fuels) within the EU representing -55% emissions reduction relative to 1990 values. For the 2050, we use a target net-zero GHG emissions in the EU including all emissions from international transport.\\u003c/p\\u003e\\n\\u003cp\\u003eSecond, in standard net-zero scenarios we limit EU bioenergy production in the standard scenarios at 7.5 EJ/yr in line with the low scenario of Ruiz et al. (2019). Moreover, we suppress bioenergy imports from other world regions by charging a high bioenergy import tax such that bioenergy consumption in these scenarios is strictly limited. This was done to respect sustainability criteria for the production of bioenergy in and outside the EU and leads to a bioenergy consumption in the range of the 1.5LIFE and 1.5LIFE-LB scenarios developed by the EU Commission (2018).\\u003c/p\\u003e\\n\\u003cp\\u003eThird, we assume in all net-zero scenarios that sectoral and infrastructure policies enable a widespread electrification of energy end-uses. Our scenarios generally assume that socio-technological barriers the adoption of battery electric vehicles in road transport as well as heat pumps in industry and buildings such as infrastructure availability, first-mover disadvantages and status quo biases are overcome with increasing usage and that they can compete with existing fossil technologies based on their economics.\\u003c/p\\u003e\\n\\u003cp\\u003eFourth, in the standard net-zero scenarios we assume that 50% of the EU e-fuel demand by 2050 will be imported at a fix price of 150 EUR/MWh. This is to reflect that not all of the e-fuel demand will need to be met by domestic supply. The e-fuel demand is endogenous to the model. However, e-fuel imports are exogenous to the optimization process such that the e-fuel prices in the model reflect the marginal cost of producing another unit domestically.\\u003c/p\\u003e\\n\\u003cp\\u003eThe primary assumptions we vary to explore pathways with different levels of residual fossil energy at net-zero are the assumptions on CCS and CDR (Ext Data Table 1). Specifically, we consider different limits on the maximum annual CO2 injection into geological storage within the EU of 110 MtCO2/yr (FosFree-NZ), 130 MtCO2/r (Intm4-NZ), 180 MtCO2/yr (Intm3-NZ), 350 MtCo2/yr (Intm-2) and 2 Gt CO2/yr (\\u003cem\\u003eIntm-1-NZ\\u003c/em\\u003e and \\u003cem\\u003eLeastCost-NZ\\u003c/em\\u003e). Regarding the EU land carbon sink, there are fundamental uncertainties about its future development (Pilli et al., 2022). We make an optimistic assumption of a carbon removal of 370 MtCO2/yr by 2050 within the range of Pilli et al. (2022), which is slightly larger than what was used for the EU Commission (2018). In all other scenarios, we make the more cautious assumptions of 240 MtCO2/yr that correspond to the current level of the EU land sink (UNFCCC, 2022). Furthermore, we assume low long-term injection cost of geological CO2 storage of about 7.5 EUR/tCO2 in the \\u003cem\\u003eLeastCost-NZ\\u003c/em\\u003e and \\u003cem\\u003eIntm1-NZ\\u003c/em\\u003e scenarios with the highest CCS availability. In all other scenarios, these long-term cost are at 20 EUR/tCO2. This serves to make the economics of CCS more or less attractive across scenarios in comparison to other mitigation options.\\u003c/p\\u003e\\n\\u003cp\\u003eIn addition to the dimension of CCS and CDR, we vary other parameters in the sensitivity scenarios. The scenario assumptions behind the sensitivity scenarios are summarized in Ext Data Table 2. The \\u003cem\\u003eHighBio\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/em\\u003eincreases the EU bioenergy production potential to 12.5 EJ/yr following the reference scenario by Ruiz et al. (2019), which is higher than all of the scenarios from the EU Commission (2018). The \\u003cem\\u003echeapDAC\\u003c/em\\u003e scenario makes very optimistic assumptions about the cost development of direct air capture (DAC). We set the learning rate from 15% to 25% per year, reduce the energy demand per unit of captured carbon by 50% and assume that at least 100 MtCO2/yr DAC capacity are operating globally by 2040, which drives down the capital costs via learning-by-doing. This increased learning rate higher than what is typically indicated by technology assessments (Sievert et al., 2024).\\u003c/p\\u003e\\n\\u003cp\\u003eThe \\u003cem\\u003eexpH2\\u003c/em\\u003e scenarios assume a higher floor cost for electrolysis (300 USD/kW(el) instead of 100 USD kW(el)) and a smaller benefit from flexible operation (see section M1) that results in range of about 30-50 EUR/MWh average EU electricity prices for electrolysis between \\u003cem\\u003eLeastCost-NZ\\u003c/em\\u003e and \\u003cem\\u003eFosFree-NZ\\u003c/em\\u003e scenarios in 2050. Electrolysis is still assumed to run flexibly at a capacity factor of 0.38 as in the standard scenarios. This sensitivity represents a case in which electrolysis can access less low-price hours in the power system due to less price variability in the system or competition with other flexible technologies.\\u003c/p\\u003e\\n\\u003cp\\u003eFinally, we run two scenario variants with different assumptions of the availability of e-fuel imports. In the H\\u003cem\\u003eighImp\\u003c/em\\u003e scenarios, we provide the model with the possibility to import an unlimited amount of carbon-neutral e-fuels to the EU regions at a fixed price of 150 EUR/MWh. These imports are not sourced from other model regions but can be accessed by the respective region via a separate import stream. The price level was chosen in consideration of technoeconomic literature on the cost of importing electricity-based Fischer-Tropsch fuels to the EU (Hampp et al., 2023; Pfennig et al., 2023). We also run a scenario variant \\u003cem\\u003enoImp\\u003c/em\\u003e without e-fuel imports where the EU has to supply all of its e-fuel demand on its own.\\u003c/p\\u003e\\n\\u003ch3\\u003eM3. Scenario Comparison Data\\u003c/h3\\u003e\\n\\u003cp\\u003eWe take scenario data from the AR6 scenario database (IPCC, 2022) and the ECEMF database (Pietzcker et al., 2023) for comparison to our results. We describe the main filtering steps of the data in the following. For further details please see the script used for our analysis that is appended in our data repository.\\u003c/p\\u003e\\n\\u003cp\\u003eWe filter the AR6 scenarios for categories C1, C2 and C3 representing scenarios that are consistent either with 1.5 or \\u0026ldquo;well-below\\u0026rdquo; 2C global temperature stabilization as they are the most ambitious recent IAM mitigation scenarios available. We filter the data for scenario results of the European Region (R10EUROPE). Note that his has a wider regional scope than the EU27 region of our scenarios generated in this study, including non-EU European countries, which is why we focus on comparing share values instead of absolute values. Next, we exclude some scenarios and models based on sanity checks of the scenario data. We exclude 1) scenarios with share data shown in Figure 1 that exceed 100% for any time step. We also exclude 2) scenarios with carbon capture and storage exceeding 2GtCO2/yr in the European Region by 2050, which is clearly outside of feasible limits. \\u0026nbsp; We exclude 3) scenarios with negative gross energy-related emissions in any time step. This leaves us with 382 scenarios. However, not all of them are included in each indicator of Figure 1 as some models do not report all of the variables used for calculating the indicators. \\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/p\\u003e\\n\\u003cp\\u003eRegarding the ECEMF data, we filter for the EU27 region and the scenarios \\u0026ldquo;DIAG-C400-lin (version: 1)\\u0026rdquo;, \\u0026ldquo;DIAG-C400-lin\\u0026rdquo; and \\u0026ldquo;WP1 NetZero [Pre-Release 2023-11-14] (version: 1)\\u0026rdquo;. These are the most ambitious scenarios currently in the database as the first two scenarios see a linear carbon price increase to 400 EUR/tCO2 and the last scenario achieves the net-zero EU goal by assumption. This leaves us with 9 scenarios from four models: REMIND 2.1, PRIMES 2022, WITCH 5.1, Euro-Calliope 2.0 where the net-zero scenario is only provided by the first two models. Our boxplots of ECEMF data therefore rely on a much smaller set of scenarios than boxplots of AR6 scenarios (see Figure 1).\\u003c/p\\u003e\\n\\u003ch3\\u003eM4. Calculation of Fuel-switching CO2 Price\\u003c/h3\\u003e\\n\\u003cp\\u003eThe average EU fuel-switching co2 prices between liquid e-fuels and fossil liquids shown in Figure 5 are calculated by a weighted aggregation of the regional price differences between both energy carriers in the following way:\\u003c/p\\u003e\\n\\u003cp\\u003e\\u003cimg 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\\\" width=\\\"581\\\" height=\\\"271\\\"\\u003e\\u003c/p\\u003e\\n\\u003ch3\\u003eM5 Weak Policy Scenario and Calculation of Consumption Losses\\u003c/h3\\u003e\\n\\u003cp\\u003eFor the calculation of aggregate consumption losses in the net-zero scenarios, we moreover run a \\u003cem\\u003eWeak Policy\\u003c/em\\u003e scenario which reflects a scenario with continued low climate policy ambition in the EU similar to the situation in 2020 before the European Green Deal policy framework was legislated. The EU CO2 price in this scenario is not adjusted to meet a specific EU emissions target but set exogenously to remain from 2020 on at 30 EUR/tCO2 throughout the modeling time period. Moreover, sector-specific technology policies like the sales ban of internal combustion engine passenger cars from 2035 (EU, 2023c) or subsidies to support heat pump uptake implemented in the net-zero scenarios are not applied. This scenario reduces total GHG emissions to only about 2200 MtCO2/yr by 2050, which is about the level of 55% reductions relative to 1990 envisaged for 2030 with the regulation of the European Green Deal.\\u0026nbsp;\\u003c/p\\u003e\\n\\u003cp\\u003eThis scenario serves as a reference point to calculate the aggregate economic consumption losses in the net-zero scenarios as a measure of the total cost of the transformation. The consumption losses, also referred to as total mitigation cost, are calculated as the difference in time-discounted aggregated consumption of the net-zero scenarios and the Weak Policy scenario. That is,\\u003c/p\\u003e\\n\\u003cp\\u003e\\u003cimg 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\\\" height=\\\"204\\\" width=\\\"581\\\"\\u003e\\u003c/p\\u003e\\n\\u003ch3\\u003eM6. Upscaling Analysis\\u003c/h3\\u003e\\n\\u003cp\\u003eFor e-fuels, we use global project announcements from the IEA Hydrogen Production Projects Database (IEA, 2022), last published in October 2024, including projects that report either \\u0026ldquo;Synfuels\\u0026rdquo; or \\u0026ldquo;MeOH\\u0026rdquo; (Methanol) as the product. For projects that report \\u0026ldquo;Various\\u0026rdquo; as the product, we distribute the capacity in equal shares to each given end-use product, and finally include the corresponding project share for the \\u0026ldquo;Synfuels\\u0026rdquo; end-use product. We only include projects with an announced launch year and derive approximate e-fuel production levels from the announced electrolysis capacity (in terms of electrical input) by using an electrolysis efficiency of 70%, an electrolysis capacity factor of 38%, and an e-fuel synthesis efficiency of 70%. We exclude projects in the \\u0026ldquo;Other/Unknown\\u0026rdquo; category and distribute projects in the \\u0026ldquo;DEMO\\u0026rdquo; category to \\u0026ldquo;Operational\\u0026rdquo; if the announced launch year is in the past or \\u0026ldquo;FID/Construction\\u0026rdquo; if the announced launch year is in the future. For 2030, we assume that 10 TWh/yr of global e-fuel production capacity can be realized, which approximately corresponds to the quantities required for the EU e-fuel sub-quotas implemented within the ReFuelEU Aviation and FuelEU Maritime regulations (Block and Neu, 2023) .\\u003c/p\\u003e\\n\\u003cp\\u003eFor CCS, we use project announcements from the IEA CCUS Projects Database (IEA, 2024), last published in March 2024, including projects for EU27 plus Norway and the United Kingdom, as the EU may export CO2 for storage to these countries in the long run. We only include the project types \\u0026ldquo;Full chain\\u0026rdquo;, \\u0026ldquo;Storage\\u0026rdquo; and \\u0026ldquo;T\\u0026amp;S\\u0026rdquo; (transport and storage) and projects that report \\u0026ldquo;Dedicated storage\\u0026rdquo; as the fate of carbon. For the project capacity, we use the column \\u0026ldquo;Estimated capacity by IEA\\u0026rdquo;. For 2030, we assume that 25 MtCO2/yr of European CCS capacity can be realized, which corresponds to applying the recent failure rate of 88% for CCS projects (Kazlou et al., 2024) to all uncertain project announcements in the \\u0026ldquo;Planned\\u0026rdquo; category.\\u003c/p\\u003e\\n\\u003cp\\u003eFor the growth rate comparison, we obtain global compound annual growth rates (CAGRs) of wind, solar PV and hydro power for the last 20 years (2003-2023), using the EI Statistical Review of World Energy 2024 (Energy Institute, 2024). We also use a historical 20-year CAGR of total US oil production (2003-2023) and a 17-year CAGR of US tight oil production (2007-2024) from this dataset. This serves to as comparison for the CCS scale-up requirements in our scenarios as exploration, installation and operation of CO2 storage and oil production rely on similar technological infrastructure and processes. We chose US tight oil growth as an optimistic reference point for future CCS scale-up because its rapid growth in particular around 2010 has been one of the most dynamic market developments in fossil fuel extraction in recent history.\\u003c/p\\u003e\\n\\u003ch3\\u003eM7 Limitations on the Fossil Phase-out\\u003c/h3\\u003e\\n\\u003cp\\u003eThe \\u003cem\\u003eFosFree-NZ\\u003c/em\\u003e scenario still features are very small amount of fossil energy use (58 TWh/yr representing 0.5% of total primary energy) as well as fossil fuel CO2 emissions (15 MtCO2/yr, representing 0.5% of current levels) in the EU by 2050. We do not investigate lower shares of fossils as this scenario captures the main dynamics of the fossil phase-out and model results with even lower fossil shares are difficult to interpret. This is mainly because marginal abatement cost represented by CO2 prices are extremely sensitive when we do model runs with even lower 2050 fossil fuel consumption. For very small quantities the model does not see fuel-switching abatement options anymore and CO2 prices strongly increase as the model has to retort to very expensive mitigation options such as further reducing energy demand. When reducing the available of CCS even further, there is a point at which model runs do not converge anymore, indicating that the given EU climate target of 2050 net-zero GHG emissions cannot be reached in this setting.\\u003c/p\\u003e\"}],\"fulltextSource\":\"\",\"fullText\":\"\",\"funders\":[],\"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow\":false,\"hasManuscriptDocX\":true,\"hasOptedInToPreprint\":true,\"hasPassedJournalQc\":\"\",\"hasAnyPriority\":true,\"hideJournal\":false,\"highlight\":\"\",\"institution\":\"\",\"isAcceptedByJournal\":true,\"isAuthorSuppliedPdf\":false,\"isDeskRejected\":\"\",\"isHiddenFromSearch\":false,\"isInQc\":false,\"isInWorkflow\":false,\"isPdf\":false,\"isPdfUpToDate\":true,\"isWithdrawnOrRetracted\":false,\"journal\":{\"display\":true,\"email\":\"info@researchsquare.com\",\"identity\":\"nature-portfolio\",\"isNatureJournal\":true,\"hasQc\":false,\"allowDirectSubmit\":false,\"externalIdentity\":\"\",\"sideBox\":\"\",\"snPcode\":\"\",\"submissionUrl\":\"\",\"title\":\"Nature Portfolio\",\"twitterHandle\":\"\",\"acdcEnabled\":false,\"dfaEnabled\":false,\"editorialSystem\":\"ejp\",\"reportingPortfolio\":\"\",\"inReviewEnabled\":true,\"inReviewRevisionsEnabled\":false},\"keywords\":\"\",\"lastPublishedDoi\":\"10.21203/rs.3.rs-5579966/v1\",\"lastPublishedDoiUrl\":\"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-5579966/v1\",\"license\":{\"name\":\"CC BY 4.0\",\"url\":\"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/\"},\"manuscriptAbstract\":\"\\u003cdiv class=\\\"SectionHeadings\\\"\\u003e\\u003cdiv class=\\\"SectionHeading\\\"\\u003e\\u003cdiv class=\\\"Paragraphs\\\"\\u003e\\u003cp\\u003eThe EU climate neutrality goal requires a strong reduction in fossil fuel use by 2050. However, whether a complete phase-out is feasible and desirable remains unclear. Here, using an integrated assessment model, we quantify the additional effort needed to achieve a virtually complete phase-out of fossil fuels in the EU by 2050 compared to a least-cost net-zero scenario. In this least-cost net-zero scenario, fossil fuel use already decreases by 87% from 2020 to 2050, driven by renewable power, direct electrification and some biofuels. However, hard-to-abate oil-based hydrocarbons and natural gas persist and are used primarily for chemicals, aviation and shipping. Phasing-out these remaining 13% of fossil fuels requires the large-scale deployment of costly carbon-neutral e-fuels, which about doubles marginal abatement costs from 300\\u0026euro;/tCO2 to 650 \\u0026euro;/tCO2 (500-1000 \\u0026euro;/tCO2) by 2050. Although a fossil phase-out target could strengthen EU climate policy commitment, it also poses additional transformation challenges.\\u003c/p\\u003e\\u003c/div\\u003e\\u003c/div\\u003e\\u003c/div\\u003e\",\"manuscriptTitle\":\"From net-zero to zero-fossil in transforming the EU energy system\",\"msid\":\"\",\"msnumber\":\"\",\"nonDraftVersions\":[{\"code\":1,\"date\":\"2025-01-09 06:56:53\",\"doi\":\"10.21203/rs.3.rs-5579966/v1\",\"editorialEvents\":[],\"status\":\"published\",\"journal\":{\"display\":true,\"email\":\"info@researchsquare.com\",\"identity\":\"nature-communications\",\"isNatureJournal\":true,\"hasQc\":false,\"allowDirectSubmit\":false,\"externalIdentity\":\"NCOMMS\",\"sideBox\":\"Learn more about [Nature Communications](http://www.nature.com/ncomms/)\",\"snPcode\":\"\",\"submissionUrl\":\"https://mts-ncomms.nature.com/\",\"title\":\"Nature Communications\",\"twitterHandle\":\"\",\"acdcEnabled\":true,\"dfaEnabled\":true,\"editorialSystem\":\"ejp\",\"reportingPortfolio\":\"Nature Communications\",\"inReviewEnabled\":true,\"inReviewRevisionsEnabled\":false}}],\"origin\":\"\",\"ownerIdentity\":\"59a5f12e-7790-46d9-955c-8cd1677c4c2e\",\"owner\":[],\"postedDate\":\"January 9th, 2025\",\"published\":true,\"recentEditorialEvents\":[],\"rejectedJournal\":[],\"revision\":\"\",\"amendment\":\"\",\"status\":\"published-in-journal\",\"subjectAreas\":[{\"id\":41399947,\"name\":\"Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental social sciences/Climate-change mitigation\"},{\"id\":41399948,\"name\":\"Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental social sciences/Environmental economics\"},{\"id\":41399949,\"name\":\"Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental social sciences/Climate-change policy\"}],\"tags\":[],\"updatedAt\":\"2025-12-11T08:06:27+00:00\",\"versionOfRecord\":{\"articleIdentity\":\"rs-5579966\",\"link\":\"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-66682-z\",\"journal\":{\"identity\":\"nature-communications\",\"isVorOnly\":false,\"title\":\"Nature Communications\"},\"publishedOn\":\"2025-12-10 05:00:00\",\"publishedOnDateReadable\":\"December 10th, 2025\"},\"versionCreatedAt\":\"2025-01-09 06:56:53\",\"video\":\"\",\"vorDoi\":\"10.1038/s41467-025-66682-z\",\"vorDoiUrl\":\"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-66682-z\",\"workflowStages\":[]},\"version\":\"v1\",\"identity\":\"rs-5579966\",\"journalConfig\":\"researchsquare\"},\"__N_SSP\":true},\"page\":\"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]\",\"query\":{\"redirect\":\"/article/rs-5579966\",\"identity\":\"rs-5579966\",\"version\":[\"v1\"]},\"buildId\":\"8U1c8b4HqxoKbykW_rLl7\",\"isFallback\":false,\"isExperimentalCompile\":false,\"dynamicIds\":[84888],\"gssp\":true,\"scriptLoader\":[]}","source_license":"CC-BY-4.0","license_restricted":false}