{"paper_id":"18ca2a8a-8181-426b-a5a8-661d1d2223be","body_text":"Technoeconomic Analysis of Microgrids for AI Data Centers in the Continental United States | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Technoeconomic Analysis of Microgrids for AI Data Centers in the Continental United States Alex Newkirk, Daniel Gerber, Erica Fuchs, Alex Hubbard, M. Morgan, and 3 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8272920/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Rapid growth of artificial intelligence demands data centers of unprecedented scale and deployment speed. To power these facilities, firms typically connect to the commercial electric grid or purchase power directly from existing or proposed generators. However, these plans overlook likely delays from grid interconnection and natural gas turbine availability. We compare grid-connected and off-grid data center energy infrastructure (AC-coupled PV+storage, DC-coupled PV+storage, islanded natural gas, and grid baseline) across the continental U.S. We combine models in the literature for location- specific cooling energy use, solar production, and battery degradation and develop data center component-level power and microgrid performance models. To estimate oppor- tunity costs of construction delays, we quantify deployment speed value using GPU spot market prices. We find that DC-coupled microgrids reduce costs 17% (7¢/kWh) on average versus AC counterparts by eliminating inverters and improving efficiency. When valuing deployment speed, all-DC microgrids are lowest-cost in 70%-89% of con- tinental U.S. locations depending on assumptions about natural gas plant construction timelines. These findings suggest that islanded microgrids can serve large data center loads without ratepayer-funded grid expansion, meaning expedited permitting for self- supplied data center power could accelerate AI deployment while preventing residential ratepayers from cross-subsidizing private infrastructure. Physical sciences/Energy science and technology/Energy infrastructure/Energy grids and networks Physical sciences/Energy science and technology/Energy modelling Physical sciences/Energy science and technology/Energy storage/Batteries Physical sciences/Energy science and technology/Renewable energy/Solar energy/Photovoltaics/Solar cells Physical sciences/Energy science and technology/Energy infrastructure/Power distribution Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Supplementary Files microgridsacnsi4.pdf SI Appendix Comprehensive Methods Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {\"props\":{\"pageProps\":{\"initialData\":{\"identity\":\"rs-8272920\",\"acceptedTermsAndConditions\":true,\"allowDirectSubmit\":false,\"archivedVersions\":[],\"articleType\":\"Article\",\"associatedPublications\":[],\"authors\":[{\"id\":562501892,\"identity\":\"56f7254a-c9a9-4795-af3b-c0a71bad9735\",\"order_by\":0,\"name\":\"Alex Newkirk\",\"email\":\"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA8klEQVRIiWNgGAWjYJACxgYDBgN+IEMCIcZGhBbJBtK0MDAYGBwgVgv/7OZjkjMK7hkbHz978HZFxWEG/mlnDBg+lB3GqUXizrE0yQ0GxWZmZ/KSLc+cOcwgcTvHgHHGOdxaGG7kmN18YJBgY3Ygx0yyse02g4F0jgEzbxtuLfI38r+BtRj3vwFq+QfV8hePFoMbOWw3NxgkmBlIgGxpgGphxKPF8Eaa+c8ZBgnGEjfeGFs2HPvPI3E7reBgz7l0nFrkbiQ/Nuz5k2DY359jeLOhJk2Of3byxgc/yqxxex8d8ICIA8SrHwWjYBSMglGADQAApPxW7qfO7vwAAAAASUVORK5CYII=\",\"orcid\":\"\",\"institution\":\"Carnegie Mellon University\",\"correspondingAuthor\":true,\"prefix\":\"\",\"firstName\":\"Alex\",\"middleName\":\"\",\"lastName\":\"Newkirk\",\"suffix\":\"\"},{\"id\":562501893,\"identity\":\"1161c4fb-e166-4748-b627-5bdfe86d7f50\",\"order_by\":1,\"name\":\"Daniel Gerber\",\"email\":\"\",\"orcid\":\"\",\"institution\":\"Berkeley National Lab\",\"correspondingAuthor\":false,\"prefix\":\"\",\"firstName\":\"Daniel\",\"middleName\":\"\",\"lastName\":\"Gerber\",\"suffix\":\"\"},{\"id\":562501894,\"identity\":\"b38cd3c9-a3cd-45c1-9d3c-cdfeba81a3fc\",\"order_by\":2,\"name\":\"Erica Fuchs\",\"email\":\"\",\"orcid\":\"\",\"institution\":\"Carnegie Mellon University\",\"correspondingAuthor\":false,\"prefix\":\"\",\"firstName\":\"Erica\",\"middleName\":\"\",\"lastName\":\"Fuchs\",\"suffix\":\"\"},{\"id\":562501895,\"identity\":\"5d789d97-f410-49ce-86e6-ef8dc6110996\",\"order_by\":3,\"name\":\"Alex Hubbard\",\"email\":\"\",\"orcid\":\"\",\"institution\":\"Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratoy\",\"correspondingAuthor\":false,\"prefix\":\"\",\"firstName\":\"Alex\",\"middleName\":\"\",\"lastName\":\"Hubbard\",\"suffix\":\"\"},{\"id\":562501896,\"identity\":\"12fd50eb-21af-434c-9f46-e01bfa7a3610\",\"order_by\":4,\"name\":\"M. Morgan\",\"email\":\"\",\"orcid\":\"\",\"institution\":\"Carnegie Mellon University\",\"correspondingAuthor\":false,\"prefix\":\"\",\"firstName\":\"M.\",\"middleName\":\"\",\"lastName\":\"Morgan\",\"suffix\":\"\"},{\"id\":562501897,\"identity\":\"2a729ac0-0b69-4bcc-9cb6-306ec93d3da6\",\"order_by\":5,\"name\":\"Arman Shehabi\",\"email\":\"\",\"orcid\":\"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1735-6973\",\"institution\":\"University of California, Berkeley\",\"correspondingAuthor\":false,\"prefix\":\"\",\"firstName\":\"Arman\",\"middleName\":\"\",\"lastName\":\"Shehabi\",\"suffix\":\"\"},{\"id\":562501898,\"identity\":\"e424d6ae-a661-41f5-b202-1a281f221305\",\"order_by\":6,\"name\":\"Sarah Smith\",\"email\":\"\",\"orcid\":\"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0179-4546\",\"institution\":\"Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory\",\"correspondingAuthor\":false,\"prefix\":\"\",\"firstName\":\"Sarah\",\"middleName\":\"\",\"lastName\":\"Smith\",\"suffix\":\"\"},{\"id\":562501899,\"identity\":\"4cfe99d0-dd17-4cbd-8b3c-446cbb9f2c34\",\"order_by\":7,\"name\":\"Constantine Samaras\",\"email\":\"\",\"orcid\":\"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8803-2845\",\"institution\":\"Carnegie Mellon University\",\"correspondingAuthor\":false,\"prefix\":\"\",\"firstName\":\"Constantine\",\"middleName\":\"\",\"lastName\":\"Samaras\",\"suffix\":\"\"}],\"badges\":[],\"createdAt\":\"2025-12-03 17:55:09\",\"currentVersionCode\":1,\"declarations\":\"\",\"doi\":\"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8272920/v1\",\"doiUrl\":\"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8272920/v1\",\"draftVersion\":[],\"editorialEvents\":[],\"editorialNote\":\"\",\"failedWorkflow\":false,\"files\":[{\"id\":98728975,\"identity\":\"cd8ffea0-1dfe-4758-94cd-ef21c08d9746\",\"added_by\":\"auto\",\"created_at\":\"2025-12-22 04:25:12\",\"extension\":\"pdf\",\"order_by\":0,\"title\":\"\",\"display\":\"\",\"copyAsset\":false,\"role\":\"acdc-reference\",\"size\":8444508,\"visible\":true,\"origin\":\"\",\"legend\":\"\",\"description\":\"\",\"filename\":\"DCMicrogridsPlainNatureTemplate4.pdf\",\"url\":\"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8272920/v1/c0ec0b229410b7f6b8dd3bc5.pdf\"},{\"id\":98728974,\"identity\":\"d28d9b37-ffc4-40c2-b2d7-9ffe96a321f6\",\"added_by\":\"auto\",\"created_at\":\"2025-12-22 04:25:12\",\"extension\":\"json\",\"order_by\":1,\"title\":\"\",\"display\":\"\",\"copyAsset\":false,\"role\":\"acdc-reference\",\"size\":9513,\"visible\":true,\"origin\":\"\",\"legend\":\"\",\"description\":\"\",\"filename\":\"NCOMMS2597998.json\",\"url\":\"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8272920/v1/1e564e30694da26a030fcb16.json\"},{\"id\":98728976,\"identity\":\"e1c7ca4f-ba6f-4b8d-8cc7-473ef140f06a\",\"added_by\":\"auto\",\"created_at\":\"2025-12-22 04:25:12\",\"extension\":\"pdf\",\"order_by\":2,\"title\":\"\",\"display\":\"\",\"copyAsset\":false,\"role\":\"acdc-reference\",\"size\":5843441,\"visible\":true,\"origin\":\"\",\"legend\":\"\",\"description\":\"\",\"filename\":\"microgridsacnsi4.pdf\",\"url\":\"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8272920/v1/3a10338442053ff3b52db24b.pdf\"},{\"id\":98778438,\"identity\":\"6da63226-e505-41a7-b046-8d2747446897\",\"added_by\":\"auto\",\"created_at\":\"2025-12-22 12:29:15\",\"extension\":\"pdf\",\"order_by\":1,\"title\":\"\",\"display\":\"\",\"copyAsset\":false,\"role\":\"manuscript-pdf\",\"size\":4167215,\"visible\":true,\"origin\":\"\",\"legend\":\"Article File\",\"description\":\"\",\"filename\":\"DCMicrogridsPlainNatureTemplate4.pdf\",\"url\":\"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8272920/v1_covered_56094e51-59fd-4d92-b8c1-18994f49e408.pdf\"},{\"id\":98728977,\"identity\":\"7e221ab2-84c6-4d21-8a85-a9306e5c3f8b\",\"added_by\":\"auto\",\"created_at\":\"2025-12-22 04:25:13\",\"extension\":\"pdf\",\"order_by\":1,\"title\":\"\",\"display\":\"\",\"copyAsset\":false,\"role\":\"supplement\",\"size\":5843441,\"visible\":true,\"origin\":\"\",\"legend\":\"SI Appendix Comprehensive Methods\",\"description\":\"\",\"filename\":\"microgridsacnsi4.pdf\",\"url\":\"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8272920/v1/0b29ff846e78d30b68b4963f.pdf\"}],\"financialInterests\":\"There is \\u003cb\\u003eNO\\u003c/b\\u003e Competing Interest.\",\"formattedTitle\":\"Technoeconomic Analysis of Microgrids for AI Data\\r\\nCenters in the Continental United States\",\"fulltext\":[],\"fulltextSource\":\"\",\"fullText\":\"\",\"funders\":[],\"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow\":false,\"hasManuscriptDocX\":false,\"hasOptedInToPreprint\":true,\"hasPassedJournalQc\":\"\",\"hasAnyPriority\":true,\"hideJournal\":false,\"highlight\":\"\",\"institution\":\"\",\"isAcceptedByJournal\":false,\"isAuthorSuppliedPdf\":true,\"isDeskRejected\":\"\",\"isHiddenFromSearch\":false,\"isInQc\":false,\"isInWorkflow\":false,\"isPdf\":true,\"isPdfUpToDate\":true,\"isWithdrawnOrRetracted\":false,\"journal\":{\"display\":true,\"email\":\"info@researchsquare.com\",\"identity\":\"nature-portfolio\",\"isNatureJournal\":true,\"hasQc\":false,\"allowDirectSubmit\":false,\"externalIdentity\":\"\",\"sideBox\":\"\",\"snPcode\":\"\",\"submissionUrl\":\"\",\"title\":\"Nature Portfolio\",\"twitterHandle\":\"\",\"acdcEnabled\":false,\"dfaEnabled\":false,\"editorialSystem\":\"ejp\",\"reportingPortfolio\":\"\",\"inReviewEnabled\":true,\"inReviewRevisionsEnabled\":false},\"keywords\":\"\",\"lastPublishedDoi\":\"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8272920/v1\",\"lastPublishedDoiUrl\":\"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8272920/v1\",\"license\":{\"name\":\"CC BY 4.0\",\"url\":\"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/\"},\"manuscriptAbstract\":\"Rapid growth of artificial intelligence demands data centers of unprecedented scale and\\r\\ndeployment speed. To power these facilities, firms typically connect to the commercial\\r\\nelectric grid or purchase power directly from existing or proposed generators. However,\\r\\nthese plans overlook likely delays from grid interconnection and natural gas turbine\\r\\navailability. We compare grid-connected and off-grid data center energy infrastructure\\r\\n(AC-coupled PV+storage, DC-coupled PV+storage, islanded natural gas, and grid\\r\\nbaseline) across the continental U.S. We combine models in the literature for location-\\r\\nspecific cooling energy use, solar production, and battery degradation and develop data\\r\\ncenter component-level power and microgrid performance models. To estimate oppor-\\r\\ntunity costs of construction delays, we quantify deployment speed value using GPU\\r\\nspot market prices. We find that DC-coupled microgrids reduce costs 17% (7¢/kWh)\\r\\non average versus AC counterparts by eliminating inverters and improving efficiency.\\r\\nWhen valuing deployment speed, all-DC microgrids are lowest-cost in 70%-89% of con-\\r\\ntinental U.S. locations depending on assumptions about natural gas plant construction\\r\\ntimelines. These findings suggest that islanded microgrids can serve large data center\\r\\nloads without ratepayer-funded grid expansion, meaning expedited permitting for self-\\r\\nsupplied data center power could accelerate AI deployment while preventing residential\\r\\nratepayers from cross-subsidizing private infrastructure.\",\"manuscriptTitle\":\"Technoeconomic Analysis of Microgrids for AI Data\\nCenters in the Continental United States\",\"msid\":\"\",\"msnumber\":\"\",\"nonDraftVersions\":[{\"code\":1,\"date\":\"2025-12-22 04:25:08\",\"doi\":\"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8272920/v1\",\"editorialEvents\":[],\"status\":\"published\",\"journal\":{\"display\":true,\"email\":\"info@researchsquare.com\",\"identity\":\"nature-communications\",\"isNatureJournal\":true,\"hasQc\":false,\"allowDirectSubmit\":false,\"externalIdentity\":\"NCOMMS\",\"sideBox\":\"Learn more about [Nature Communications](http://www.nature.com/ncomms/)\",\"snPcode\":\"\",\"submissionUrl\":\"https://mts-ncomms.nature.com/\",\"title\":\"Nature Communications\",\"twitterHandle\":\"\",\"acdcEnabled\":true,\"dfaEnabled\":true,\"editorialSystem\":\"ejp\",\"reportingPortfolio\":\"Nature Communications\",\"inReviewEnabled\":true,\"inReviewRevisionsEnabled\":false}}],\"origin\":\"\",\"ownerIdentity\":\"fa154a6c-bede-4c3a-92b6-8ad33c0d4d83\",\"owner\":[],\"postedDate\":\"December 22nd, 2025\",\"published\":true,\"recentEditorialEvents\":[],\"rejectedJournal\":[],\"revision\":\"\",\"amendment\":\"\",\"status\":\"under-review\",\"subjectAreas\":[{\"id\":59902798,\"name\":\"Physical sciences/Energy science and technology/Energy infrastructure/Energy grids and networks\"},{\"id\":59902799,\"name\":\"Physical sciences/Energy science and technology/Energy modelling\"},{\"id\":59902800,\"name\":\"Physical sciences/Energy science and technology/Energy storage/Batteries\"},{\"id\":59902801,\"name\":\"Physical sciences/Energy science and technology/Renewable energy/Solar energy/Photovoltaics/Solar cells\"},{\"id\":59902802,\"name\":\"Physical sciences/Energy science and technology/Energy infrastructure/Power distribution\"}],\"tags\":[],\"updatedAt\":\"2025-12-22T04:25:08+00:00\",\"versionOfRecord\":[],\"versionCreatedAt\":\"2025-12-22 04:25:08\",\"video\":\"\",\"vorDoi\":\"\",\"vorDoiUrl\":\"\",\"workflowStages\":[]},\"version\":\"v1\",\"identity\":\"rs-8272920\",\"journalConfig\":\"researchsquare\"},\"__N_SSP\":true},\"page\":\"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]\",\"query\":{\"redirect\":\"/article/rs-8272920\",\"identity\":\"rs-8272920\",\"version\":[\"v1\"]},\"buildId\":\"8U1c8b4HqxoKbykW_rLl7\",\"isFallback\":false,\"isExperimentalCompile\":false,\"dynamicIds\":[84888],\"gssp\":true,\"scriptLoader\":[]}","source_license":"CC-BY-4.0","license_restricted":false}