{"paper_id":"0f74fc31-8b31-431d-afb6-8e4e4a6fb247","body_text":"Spatiotemporal analysis of spatial heterogeneity and mechanism reweighting in housing vacancy regimes after COVID-19 | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Spatiotemporal analysis of spatial heterogeneity and mechanism reweighting in housing vacancy regimes after COVID-19 Lester Luo, Maik Gramalla This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-9484871/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted 5 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Empirical studies often treat housing vacancy as a static correlate of local conditions, underemphasizing dynamic mechanisms that vary across space and shift under shocks. We reframe vacancy as a regime-structured process in which core–periphery hierarchies shape both local effects and cross-boundary spillovers. Focusing on the Tokyo Metropolitan Area, we ask whether the COVID-19 period disrupted the core–periphery regime structure or instead reweighted pre-existing mechanisms. Using municipality-level data from Japan’s Housing and Land Survey (HLS) for 290 municipalities in 2018 and 2023, we combine exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA) with cross-sectional Spatial Durbin Models and a two-period panel SDM with municipality and year fixed effects. \\(\\:Post\\times\\:X\\) and \\(\\:Post\\times\\:WX\\) interactions identify post-period parameter shifts and decompose direct and spillover effects, separating within-municipality change from time-invariant heterogeneity. Results reveal persistent spatial clustering and selectively reweighted core–periphery, regime-specific mechanisms, with demographic pressure dominating the periphery and economic centrality coupled with asset-recycling capacity governing the core, contradicting a generalized “urban exodus” narrative. Social facilities exhibit a regime-contingent pattern: they operate as vacancy buffers in the periphery, whereas in the core their association shifts toward spillover-linked vacancy propagation. Meanwhile, the buffering role of pre-1981 housing stock weakens in 2023 relative to 2018, consistent with intensified quality-based sorting. Post-period shifts are largely spillover-driven, underscoring cross-boundary externalities. Overall, COVID-19 did not erase the regime hierarchy but induced asymmetric parameter reweighting. The study contributes a transferable, spillover-aware framework for diagnosing vacancy change and designing regime-targeted governance in aging and shrinking metropolises. housing vacancy core–periphery spatial spillovers mechanism reweighting COVID-19 pandemic Tokyo Metropolitan Area Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted Reviewers invited by journal 07 May, 2026 Editor invited by journal 06 May, 2026 Editor assigned by journal 04 May, 2026 Submission checks completed at journal 30 Apr, 2026 First submitted to journal 30 Apr, 2026 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {\"props\":{\"pageProps\":{\"initialData\":{\"identity\":\"rs-9484871\",\"acceptedTermsAndConditions\":true,\"allowDirectSubmit\":false,\"archivedVersions\":[],\"articleType\":\"Research Article\",\"associatedPublications\":[],\"authors\":[{\"id\":639791036,\"identity\":\"d50e4206-1102-4630-a0f9-b284c7d87e56\",\"order_by\":0,\"name\":\"Lester Luo\",\"email\":\"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA1ElEQVRIiWNgGAWjYBACPghlIwOhC4jQwsbAwNjAwJDGw8DADOQaEK/lMCla2NufP/i45zwPP//5g48rDA7LMbAfProBrxaeM4aNM57d5pGckcxseMbgsDEDT1raDbxaJHIYm3kO3OYxuMHMJtlgcDixQYLHDL8W+ecPm/8cOMdjf/4w+0/itEgwGDYzHDjAY8CQzMZInBaeHMOZPQeSeSRuJBsDHZZuzEbIL/zsxx98+HHATo6//+DDjw0V1nL87IeP4dWCxV7SlI+CUTAKRsEowAYAZYZEVemcojwAAAAASUVORK5CYII=\",\"orcid\":\"\",\"institution\":\"Independent Consulting\",\"correspondingAuthor\":true,\"prefix\":\"\",\"firstName\":\"Lester\",\"middleName\":\"\",\"lastName\":\"Luo\",\"suffix\":\"\"},{\"id\":639791037,\"identity\":\"6e5ed672-c20c-483a-8621-1842d35be6fb\",\"order_by\":1,\"name\":\"Maik Gramalla\",\"email\":\"\",\"orcid\":\"\",\"institution\":\"Heidelberg University\",\"correspondingAuthor\":false,\"prefix\":\"\",\"firstName\":\"Maik\",\"middleName\":\"\",\"lastName\":\"Gramalla\",\"suffix\":\"\"}],\"badges\":[],\"createdAt\":\"2026-04-21 13:23:32\",\"currentVersionCode\":1,\"declarations\":\"\",\"doi\":\"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9484871/v1\",\"doiUrl\":\"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9484871/v1\",\"draftVersion\":[],\"editorialEvents\":[],\"editorialNote\":\"\",\"failedWorkflow\":false,\"files\":[{\"id\":109291954,\"identity\":\"02949db0-0095-4f6d-8ed5-b1636481dc71\",\"added_by\":\"auto\",\"created_at\":\"2026-05-15 08:05:51\",\"extension\":\"pdf\",\"order_by\":1,\"title\":\"\",\"display\":\"\",\"copyAsset\":false,\"role\":\"manuscript-pdf\",\"size\":846005,\"visible\":true,\"origin\":\"\",\"legend\":\"\",\"description\":\"\",\"filename\":\"manuscriptDCsubmission2.0clean.pdf\",\"url\":\"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-9484871/v1_covered_a5ce3ca3-758b-4d72-81c4-23a9e72ece13.pdf\"}],\"financialInterests\":\"No competing interests reported.\",\"formattedTitle\":\"Spatiotemporal analysis of spatial heterogeneity and mechanism reweighting in housing vacancy regimes after COVID-19\",\"fulltext\":[],\"fulltextSource\":\"\",\"fullText\":\"\",\"funders\":[],\"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow\":false,\"hasManuscriptDocX\":false,\"hasOptedInToPreprint\":true,\"hasPassedJournalQc\":\"\",\"hasAnyPriority\":false,\"hideJournal\":false,\"highlight\":\"\",\"institution\":\"\",\"isAcceptedByJournal\":false,\"isAuthorSuppliedPdf\":true,\"isDeskRejected\":\"\",\"isHiddenFromSearch\":false,\"isInQc\":false,\"isInWorkflow\":false,\"isPdf\":true,\"isPdfUpToDate\":true,\"isWithdrawnOrRetracted\":false,\"journal\":{\"display\":true,\"email\":\"info@researchsquare.com\",\"identity\":\"discover-cities\",\"isNatureJournal\":false,\"hasQc\":true,\"allowDirectSubmit\":false,\"externalIdentity\":\"\",\"sideBox\":\"Learn more about [Discover Cities](https://www.springer.com/journal/44327)\",\"snPcode\":\"44327\",\"submissionUrl\":\"https://submission.springernature.com/new-submission/44327/3\",\"title\":\"Discover Cities\",\"twitterHandle\":\"\",\"acdcEnabled\":true,\"dfaEnabled\":true,\"editorialSystem\":\"stoa\",\"reportingPortfolio\":\"Discover Series\",\"inReviewEnabled\":true,\"inReviewRevisionsEnabled\":true},\"keywords\":\"housing vacancy, core–periphery, spatial spillovers, mechanism reweighting, COVID-19 pandemic, Tokyo Metropolitan Area\",\"lastPublishedDoi\":\"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9484871/v1\",\"lastPublishedDoiUrl\":\"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9484871/v1\",\"license\":{\"name\":\"CC BY 4.0\",\"url\":\"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/\"},\"manuscriptAbstract\":\"\\u003cp\\u003eEmpirical studies often treat housing vacancy as a static correlate of local conditions, underemphasizing dynamic mechanisms that vary across space and shift under shocks. We reframe vacancy as a regime-structured process in which core\\u0026ndash;periphery hierarchies shape both local effects and cross-boundary spillovers. Focusing on the Tokyo Metropolitan Area, we ask whether the COVID-19 period disrupted the core\\u0026ndash;periphery regime structure or instead reweighted pre-existing mechanisms. Using municipality-level data from Japan\\u0026rsquo;s Housing and Land Survey (HLS) for 290 municipalities in 2018 and 2023, we combine exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA) with cross-sectional Spatial Durbin Models and a two-period panel SDM with municipality and year fixed effects. \\u003cspan class=\\\"InlineEquation\\\"\\u003e\\u003cspan class=\\\"mathinline\\\"\\u003e\\\\(\\\\:Post\\\\times\\\\:X\\\\)\\u003c/span\\u003e\\u003c/span\\u003e and \\u003cspan class=\\\"InlineEquation\\\"\\u003e\\u003cspan class=\\\"mathinline\\\"\\u003e\\\\(\\\\:Post\\\\times\\\\:WX\\\\)\\u003c/span\\u003e\\u003c/span\\u003e interactions identify post-period parameter shifts and decompose direct and spillover effects, separating within-municipality change from time-invariant heterogeneity. Results reveal persistent spatial clustering and selectively reweighted core\\u0026ndash;periphery, regime-specific mechanisms, with demographic pressure dominating the periphery and economic centrality coupled with asset-recycling capacity governing the core, contradicting a generalized \\u0026ldquo;urban exodus\\u0026rdquo; narrative. Social facilities exhibit a regime-contingent pattern: they operate as vacancy buffers in the periphery, whereas in the core their association shifts toward spillover-linked vacancy propagation. Meanwhile, the buffering role of pre-1981 housing stock weakens in 2023 relative to 2018, consistent with intensified quality-based sorting. Post-period shifts are largely spillover-driven, underscoring cross-boundary externalities. Overall, COVID-19 did not erase the regime hierarchy but induced asymmetric parameter reweighting. The study contributes a transferable, spillover-aware framework for diagnosing vacancy change and designing regime-targeted governance in aging and shrinking metropolises.\\u003c/p\\u003e\",\"manuscriptTitle\":\"Spatiotemporal analysis of spatial heterogeneity and mechanism reweighting in housing vacancy regimes after COVID-19\",\"msid\":\"\",\"msnumber\":\"\",\"nonDraftVersions\":[{\"code\":1,\"date\":\"2026-05-15 08:05:24\",\"doi\":\"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9484871/v1\",\"editorialEvents\":[{\"type\":\"communityComments\",\"content\":0},{\"type\":\"reviewersInvited\",\"content\":\"\",\"date\":\"2026-05-07T07:48:31+00:00\",\"index\":\"\",\"fulltext\":\"\"},{\"type\":\"editorInvited\",\"content\":\"\",\"date\":\"2026-05-06T10:08:41+00:00\",\"index\":\"\",\"fulltext\":\"\"},{\"type\":\"editorAssigned\",\"content\":\"\",\"date\":\"2026-05-04T19:21:25+00:00\",\"index\":\"\",\"fulltext\":\"\"},{\"type\":\"checksComplete\",\"content\":\"\",\"date\":\"2026-04-30T19:16:02+00:00\",\"index\":\"\",\"fulltext\":\"\"},{\"type\":\"submitted\",\"content\":\"Discover Cities\",\"date\":\"2026-04-30T18:18:58+00:00\",\"index\":\"\",\"fulltext\":\"\"}],\"status\":\"published\",\"journal\":{\"display\":true,\"email\":\"info@researchsquare.com\",\"identity\":\"discover-cities\",\"isNatureJournal\":false,\"hasQc\":true,\"allowDirectSubmit\":false,\"externalIdentity\":\"\",\"sideBox\":\"Learn more about [Discover Cities](https://www.springer.com/journal/44327)\",\"snPcode\":\"44327\",\"submissionUrl\":\"https://submission.springernature.com/new-submission/44327/3\",\"title\":\"Discover Cities\",\"twitterHandle\":\"\",\"acdcEnabled\":true,\"dfaEnabled\":true,\"editorialSystem\":\"stoa\",\"reportingPortfolio\":\"Discover Series\",\"inReviewEnabled\":true,\"inReviewRevisionsEnabled\":true}}],\"origin\":\"\",\"ownerIdentity\":\"9c3ca4f5-49c0-4d08-a9cb-732e20408e76\",\"owner\":[],\"postedDate\":\"May 15th, 2026\",\"published\":true,\"recentEditorialEvents\":[{\"type\":\"reviewersInvited\",\"content\":\"24\",\"date\":\"2026-05-07T07:48:31+00:00\",\"index\":\"\",\"fulltext\":\"\"},{\"type\":\"editorInvited\",\"content\":\"\",\"date\":\"2026-05-06T10:08:41+00:00\",\"index\":\"\",\"fulltext\":\"\"},{\"type\":\"editorAssigned\",\"content\":\"\",\"date\":\"2026-05-04T19:21:25+00:00\",\"index\":\"\",\"fulltext\":\"\"},{\"type\":\"checksComplete\",\"content\":\"\",\"date\":\"2026-04-30T19:16:02+00:00\",\"index\":\"\",\"fulltext\":\"\"},{\"type\":\"submitted\",\"content\":\"Discover Cities\",\"date\":\"2026-04-30T18:18:58+00:00\",\"index\":\"\",\"fulltext\":\"\"}],\"rejectedJournal\":[],\"revision\":\"\",\"amendment\":\"\",\"status\":\"under-review\",\"subjectAreas\":[],\"tags\":[],\"updatedAt\":\"2026-05-15T08:05:24+00:00\",\"versionOfRecord\":[],\"versionCreatedAt\":\"2026-05-15 08:05:24\",\"video\":\"\",\"vorDoi\":\"\",\"vorDoiUrl\":\"\",\"workflowStages\":[]},\"version\":\"v1\",\"identity\":\"rs-9484871\",\"journalConfig\":\"researchsquare\"},\"__N_SSP\":true},\"page\":\"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]\",\"query\":{\"redirect\":\"/article/rs-9484871\",\"identity\":\"rs-9484871\",\"version\":[\"v1\"]},\"buildId\":\"XKTyCvWXoU3ODBz1xrDgd\",\"isFallback\":false,\"isExperimentalCompile\":false,\"dynamicIds\":[84888],\"gssp\":true,\"scriptLoader\":[]}","source_license":"CC-BY-4.0","license_restricted":false}