{"paper_id":"08cf8290-016a-4786-831e-ff560671eaec","body_text":"Sustainable Cocoa Sector Development in Côte d’Ivoire: Assessing Market Volatility, Climate Risks, Supply Shortfalls, and Strategic Interventions | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Sustainable Cocoa Sector Development in Côte d’Ivoire: Assessing Market Volatility, Climate Risks, Supply Shortfalls, and Strategic Interventions DOGO ARMAND DAGO This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7126282/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract This study investigates the dynamics and sustainability challenges of Côte d’Ivoire’s cocoa sector from 1960 to 2024, focusing on the impacts of global market volatility, climate change, and supply shortfalls. Using advanced econometric methods, including the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, Zivot-Andrews structural break analysis, impulse response functions, and variance decomposition, the research analyzes how global cocoa prices, domestic grinding, exports, inflation, rainfall, and temperature influence cocoa production. Structural breaks in 1994 and 2014 correspond to major policy reforms and external market shifts, indicating periods of heightened vulnerability. The results demonstrate that inflation and climatic variability significantly constrain production stability, while domestic processing and strong export performance mitigate the adverse effects of price shocks. By integrating economic and environmental variables into a long-term empirical framework, this study contributes to the literature on agricultural sustainability and market resilience. It offers targeted policy recommendations, including the promotion of value addition through local processing, stabilization of macroeconomic conditions, investment in climate-resilient agricultural systems, and enhanced international cooperation to ensure equitable pricing mechanisms. The results underscore the necessity of coordinated, knowledge-based interventions that align economic incentives with ecological realities to promote sustainable sectoral development. Future research should explore subnational socio-economic impacts and context-specific adaptation strategies to support a more resilient and inclusive cocoa sector under global uncertainty. International Economics Agricultural Economics and Policy Development Economics Market volatility Climate change adaptation and policy Sustainable agricultural development Structural economic transformation Sustainable cocoa production and Côte d’Ivoire Full Text Additional Declarations The authors declare no competing interests. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {\"props\":{\"pageProps\":{\"initialData\":{\"identity\":\"rs-7126282\",\"acceptedTermsAndConditions\":true,\"allowDirectSubmit\":true,\"archivedVersions\":[],\"articleType\":\"Research Article\",\"associatedPublications\":[],\"authors\":[{\"id\":485506502,\"identity\":\"884362a8-f1d7-4422-a662-aa3b54cdfe15\",\"order_by\":0,\"name\":\"DOGO ARMAND DAGO\",\"email\":\"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAABEUlEQVRIiWNgGAWjYDCCA3BWgsGBDxX/5YAsRqBgAlFaDA/OOMNszMDAzEC0FuPDvG3MiQ2EtPAdb7/44OeebfLm7MkbDvOcYUvvl8g/AHRhGgN/ezdWfZJnzhQb9jy7bbiz51nBwTkVPLkzZyQzAF2YwyBx5uwGbFoMbuSkSfAcuM244UaOwYE3ZyRyN9xIZgC6sILBAMjGpUXyz4Hb9mAtvG0G6QaEtaQfkwbakgjScpC3LSEBqiUHpxagX5iNZQ7cTt5wBuiXGWcOGM7seWwAZKTx4PILMMQePnxz4LbthuPJmz98qDggz8+e+PDBh4pkOf72XqxaGBh4DHCIYxcGAfYHuOVGwSgYBaNgFIAAACLFep9cLegLAAAAAElFTkSuQmCC\",\"orcid\":\"https://orcid.org/0009-0000-2840-3336\",\"institution\":\"WUHAN UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY\",\"correspondingAuthor\":true,\"prefix\":\"\",\"firstName\":\"DOGO\",\"middleName\":\"ARMAND\",\"lastName\":\"DAGO\",\"suffix\":\"\"}],\"badges\":[],\"createdAt\":\"2025-07-15 05:02:38\",\"currentVersionCode\":1,\"declarations\":{\"humanSubjects\":true,\"vertebrateSubjects\":false,\"conflictsOfInterestStatement\":false,\"humanSubjectEthicalGuidelines\":true,\"humanSubjectConsent\":true,\"humanSubjectClinicalTrial\":false,\"humanSubjectCaseReport\":false,\"vertebrateSubjectEthicalGuidelines\":false},\"doi\":\"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7126282/v1\",\"doiUrl\":\"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7126282/v1\",\"draftVersion\":[],\"editorialEvents\":[],\"editorialNote\":\"\",\"failedWorkflow\":false,\"files\":[{\"id\":87466886,\"identity\":\"00876f7d-56d6-4eb9-b679-3d2faa39e578\",\"added_by\":\"auto\",\"created_at\":\"2025-07-24 07:35:56\",\"extension\":\"pdf\",\"order_by\":1,\"title\":\"\",\"display\":\"\",\"copyAsset\":false,\"role\":\"manuscript-pdf\",\"size\":1298414,\"visible\":true,\"origin\":\"\",\"legend\":\"\",\"description\":\"\",\"filename\":\"WithAuthorDetails.pdf\",\"url\":\"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7126282/v1_covered_61e350fe-692c-41b4-b81e-10f84eb9a8c4.pdf\"}],\"financialInterests\":\"The authors declare no competing interests.\",\"formattedTitle\":\"\\u003cp\\u003e\\u003cstrong\\u003eSustainable Cocoa Sector Development in Côte d’Ivoire: Assessing Market Volatility, Climate Risks, Supply Shortfalls, and Strategic Interventions\\u003c/strong\\u003e\\u003c/p\\u003e\",\"fulltext\":[],\"fulltextSource\":\"\",\"fullText\":\"\",\"funders\":[],\"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow\":false,\"hasManuscriptDocX\":false,\"hasOptedInToPreprint\":true,\"hasPassedJournalQc\":\"\",\"hasAnyPriority\":true,\"hideJournal\":true,\"highlight\":\"\",\"institution\":\"Wuhan University of Technology\",\"isAcceptedByJournal\":false,\"isAuthorSuppliedPdf\":true,\"isDeskRejected\":\"\",\"isHiddenFromSearch\":false,\"isInQc\":false,\"isInWorkflow\":false,\"isPdf\":true,\"isPdfUpToDate\":true,\"isWithdrawnOrRetracted\":false,\"journal\":{\"display\":true,\"email\":\"info@researchsquare.com\",\"identity\":\"researchsquare\",\"isNatureJournal\":false,\"hasQc\":true,\"allowDirectSubmit\":true,\"externalIdentity\":\"\",\"sideBox\":\"\",\"snPcode\":\"\",\"submissionUrl\":\"/submission\",\"title\":\"Research Square\",\"twitterHandle\":\"researchsquare\",\"acdcEnabled\":true,\"dfaEnabled\":false,\"editorialSystem\":\"\",\"reportingPortfolio\":\"\",\"inReviewEnabled\":false,\"inReviewRevisionsEnabled\":true},\"keywords\":\"Market volatility, Climate change adaptation and policy, Sustainable agricultural development, Structural economic transformation, Sustainable cocoa production, and Côte d’Ivoire\",\"lastPublishedDoi\":\"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7126282/v1\",\"lastPublishedDoiUrl\":\"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7126282/v1\",\"license\":{\"name\":\"CC BY 4.0\",\"url\":\"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/\"},\"manuscriptAbstract\":\"\\u003cp\\u003eThis study investigates the dynamics and sustainability challenges of C\\u0026ocirc;te d\\u0026rsquo;Ivoire\\u0026rsquo;s cocoa sector from 1960 to 2024, focusing on the impacts of global market volatility, climate change, and supply shortfalls. 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