{"paper_id":"07cdca45-868d-4ff7-93ca-cc6ccd9b9e55","body_text":"Arctic Warming Surpasses Estimates Constrained by Early 21st Century Albedo | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Arctic Warming Surpasses Estimates Constrained by Early 21st Century Albedo Doyeon Kim, Patrick Taylor This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7023738/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Arctic warming has exceeded the global average and is projected to intensify, yet models may still underestimate its magnitude. Here, we apply a novel decomposition method to quantify the contributions of sea ice albedo, concentration, and extent to Arctic surface albedo trends in observations and CMIP6 models. While sea ice extent dominates the long-term decline, sea ice albedo strongly influenced observed variability in the early 21st century—a signal largely absent in models. This missing feedback results in up to 1.5 K (~20%) additional summer warming under SSP585. Crucially, models with present-day albedo trends more consistent with observations—particularly those driven by sea ice extent loss—project stronger future albedo feedback and greater Arctic warming. This emergent relationship provides a physically grounded constraint on long-term projections. Our findings underscore the importance of realistic sea ice process representation and demonstrate that recent changes in ice edge can inform future climate response. Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Cryospheric science Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental sciences/Environmental impact Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {\"props\":{\"pageProps\":{\"initialData\":{\"identity\":\"rs-7023738\",\"acceptedTermsAndConditions\":true,\"allowDirectSubmit\":false,\"archivedVersions\":[],\"articleType\":\"Article\",\"associatedPublications\":[],\"authors\":[{\"id\":486919800,\"identity\":\"d2d29d9f-dc44-46f7-b7de-be4d698dc0c0\",\"order_by\":0,\"name\":\"Doyeon Kim\",\"email\":\"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA5klEQVRIiWNgGAWjYJACCYYfNnL2xxuATAMLYjQwM0gw9qQZM5w5ANIiQaQWBrbDiQ03EiA2EgT8s/sP3ubhOczYOPP51Q0/CiQY+Nu7E/BqkbhzmNmaxyKdmVk6p+xmD9BhEmfObsBvzY1kNmkeHms2NumctBs8QC0GErn4tciDtbAx8/BInkm7+YcYLQYQLc4SEhLsx24TZYvhjWRjy7k9aQYGPDlst2UMJHgI+kXuRuLDG29+2NRvYD/+7OabPzZy/O29BLwPBEw8YIrHAEwSVA4CjD/AFPsDolSPglEwCkbByAMAEGBDzI4Dij0AAAAASUVORK5CYII=\",\"orcid\":\"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6860-6194\",\"institution\":\"NASA Langley Research Center\",\"correspondingAuthor\":true,\"prefix\":\"\",\"firstName\":\"Doyeon\",\"middleName\":\"\",\"lastName\":\"Kim\",\"suffix\":\"\"},{\"id\":486919801,\"identity\":\"bb8c901f-9c85-474f-aafb-d4bb233dbf6f\",\"order_by\":1,\"name\":\"Patrick Taylor\",\"email\":\"\",\"orcid\":\"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8098-8447\",\"institution\":\"Langley Research Center\",\"correspondingAuthor\":false,\"prefix\":\"\",\"firstName\":\"Patrick\",\"middleName\":\"\",\"lastName\":\"Taylor\",\"suffix\":\"\"}],\"badges\":[],\"createdAt\":\"2025-07-01 23:05:16\",\"currentVersionCode\":1,\"declarations\":\"\",\"doi\":\"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7023738/v1\",\"doiUrl\":\"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7023738/v1\",\"draftVersion\":[],\"editorialEvents\":[],\"editorialNote\":\"\",\"failedWorkflow\":false,\"files\":[{\"id\":86999186,\"identity\":\"7b238128-f12f-494d-a5a9-4a4155582b20\",\"added_by\":\"auto\",\"created_at\":\"2025-07-18 06:43:10\",\"extension\":\"pdf\",\"order_by\":1,\"title\":\"\",\"display\":\"\",\"copyAsset\":false,\"role\":\"manuscript-pdf\",\"size\":958903,\"visible\":true,\"origin\":\"\",\"legend\":\"\",\"description\":\"\",\"filename\":\"ManuscriptArcticalbedoFN.pdf\",\"url\":\"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7023738/v1_covered_951ce7cf-0b2a-428c-9d9b-3adf56524491.pdf\"}],\"financialInterests\":\"There is \\u003cb\\u003eNO\\u003c/b\\u003e Competing Interest.\",\"formattedTitle\":\"Arctic Warming Surpasses Estimates Constrained by Early 21st Century Albedo\",\"fulltext\":[],\"fulltextSource\":\"\",\"fullText\":\"\",\"funders\":[],\"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow\":false,\"hasManuscriptDocX\":false,\"hasOptedInToPreprint\":true,\"hasPassedJournalQc\":\"\",\"hasAnyPriority\":true,\"hideJournal\":false,\"highlight\":\"\",\"institution\":\"\",\"isAcceptedByJournal\":false,\"isAuthorSuppliedPdf\":true,\"isDeskRejected\":\"\",\"isHiddenFromSearch\":false,\"isInQc\":false,\"isInWorkflow\":false,\"isPdf\":true,\"isPdfUpToDate\":true,\"isWithdrawnOrRetracted\":false,\"journal\":{\"display\":true,\"email\":\"info@researchsquare.com\",\"identity\":\"nature-portfolio\",\"isNatureJournal\":true,\"hasQc\":false,\"allowDirectSubmit\":false,\"externalIdentity\":\"\",\"sideBox\":\"\",\"snPcode\":\"\",\"submissionUrl\":\"\",\"title\":\"Nature Portfolio\",\"twitterHandle\":\"\",\"acdcEnabled\":false,\"dfaEnabled\":false,\"editorialSystem\":\"ejp\",\"reportingPortfolio\":\"\",\"inReviewEnabled\":true,\"inReviewRevisionsEnabled\":false},\"keywords\":\"\",\"lastPublishedDoi\":\"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7023738/v1\",\"lastPublishedDoiUrl\":\"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7023738/v1\",\"license\":{\"name\":\"CC BY 4.0\",\"url\":\"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/\"},\"manuscriptAbstract\":\"Arctic warming has exceeded the global average and is projected to intensify, yet models may still underestimate its magnitude. 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