{"paper_id":"01d91e70-385d-43fa-b37e-3fd4eeeb9562","body_text":"Research on the dynamic evolution and influencing factors of semi urbanization rate under the development model of \"small county, big city\" - based on data analysis of 38 county-level administrative units in Chongqing, China | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Research on the dynamic evolution and influencing factors of semi urbanization rate under the development model of \"small county, big city\" - based on data analysis of 38 county-level administrative units in Chongqing, China 凌 Ling, 凌 Guo This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7050744/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Based on panel data from 38 county-level administrative units in Chongqing from 2013 to 2023, this study systematically examined the dynamic evolution characteristics and influencing factors of semi urbanization rate under the \"small county, big city\" development model. Through research methods such as Moran's index, spatial Markov chain, center of gravity shift, and geographic detector, it was found that the semi urbanization rate in Chongqing showed a fluctuating trend as a whole, with \"first decreasing and then increasing\" in various regions year by year. The development speed was fast but the gap was large, and some areas had negative values and population loss problems; At the same time, there is a high probability of an upward increase in the semi urbanization rate, but it is difficult to cross levels and is highly susceptible to the influence of neighboring cities; And the overall center of gravity moves evenly within the main urban area; In terms of influencing factors, the interaction between single and double factors such as social economy, basic public education, social culture, and ecological environment will increase the semi urbanization rate. Based on the above conclusions, this study provides micro evidence for the dynamic changes of semi urbanization rate, and provides important insights into the development strategies of mountainous counties in Chongqing, alleviating the problem of urban-rural development imbalance. Finally, it proposes to deepen the reform of the registered residence system and land system, and continue to break the urban-rural dual structure; Clarify the spatial structure of urban areas and narrow the development gap between urban and rural areas based on \"county\" units; Suggestions for promoting the coordinated development of county-level economy and social public services. County level Population semi urbanization rate Moran index Spatial Markov chain Geographic detector model Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {\"props\":{\"pageProps\":{\"initialData\":{\"identity\":\"rs-7050744\",\"acceptedTermsAndConditions\":true,\"allowDirectSubmit\":true,\"archivedVersions\":[],\"articleType\":\"Research Article\",\"associatedPublications\":[],\"authors\":[{\"id\":489018706,\"identity\":\"88a75d70-10d1-4ebc-bc36-7ec25e8d9e92\",\"order_by\":0,\"name\":\"凌 Ling\",\"email\":\"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA9klEQVRIie3PsUrEQBDG8VkGNs3EbTco+gobrhAh6KusBFJZWEk6VxZiaRsr38J6w7Th7gGu8RGSyitETK9stLPYXz3/gQ8gSf6hIxBvfGj16Rmq98PUVqSUiycSsGQYq035CKbox+ak6MNqsmHRNdduB+Y477gyzq4kuga+lSwePFiTdzsyEMQ030QSYuCeGDOEYPV2T+fosHh+jSTZUwikWQovXDB3e7pwQWIeS3D5ToYJGIWzcksm2JUk88BkGw0sl7gLv0iWLUMfKlN6ksKNNRX94KNblK5xmj/1/YsaJX60l1dK+WGaI8lPhPvbfZIkSfLNF+2dUTd5RE/IAAAAAElFTkSuQmCC\",\"orcid\":\"\",\"institution\":\"\",\"correspondingAuthor\":true,\"prefix\":\"\",\"firstName\":\"凌\",\"middleName\":\"\",\"lastName\":\"Ling\",\"suffix\":\"\"},{\"id\":489018707,\"identity\":\"a33f81bc-1467-421c-843c-90a096c4bc36\",\"order_by\":1,\"name\":\"凌 Guo\",\"email\":\"\",\"orcid\":\"\",\"institution\":\"\",\"correspondingAuthor\":false,\"prefix\":\"\",\"firstName\":\"凌\",\"middleName\":\"\",\"lastName\":\"Guo\",\"suffix\":\"\"}],\"badges\":[],\"createdAt\":\"2025-07-05 05:53:07\",\"currentVersionCode\":1,\"declarations\":\"\",\"doi\":\"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7050744/v1\",\"doiUrl\":\"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7050744/v1\",\"draftVersion\":[],\"editorialEvents\":[],\"editorialNote\":\"\",\"failedWorkflow\":false,\"files\":[{\"id\":96454783,\"identity\":\"fc50e0e2-8d43-4769-8e98-04a8ab716428\",\"added_by\":\"auto\",\"created_at\":\"2025-11-21 10:03:08\",\"extension\":\"pdf\",\"order_by\":1,\"title\":\"\",\"display\":\"\",\"copyAsset\":false,\"role\":\"manuscript-pdf\",\"size\":1294828,\"visible\":true,\"origin\":\"\",\"legend\":\"\",\"description\":\"\",\"filename\":\"38.pdf\",\"url\":\"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7050744/v1_covered_e4ef3fbf-8931-4ebe-9221-e23444a19293.pdf\"}],\"financialInterests\":\"No competing interests reported.\",\"formattedTitle\":\"Research on the dynamic evolution and influencing factors of semi urbanization rate under the development model of \\\"small county, big city\\\" - based on data analysis of 38 county-level administrative units in Chongqing, China\",\"fulltext\":[],\"fulltextSource\":\"\",\"fullText\":\"\",\"funders\":[],\"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow\":false,\"hasManuscriptDocX\":false,\"hasOptedInToPreprint\":true,\"hasPassedJournalQc\":\"\",\"hasAnyPriority\":false,\"hideJournal\":true,\"highlight\":\"\",\"institution\":\"\",\"isAcceptedByJournal\":false,\"isAuthorSuppliedPdf\":true,\"isDeskRejected\":\"\",\"isHiddenFromSearch\":false,\"isInQc\":false,\"isInWorkflow\":false,\"isPdf\":true,\"isPdfUpToDate\":true,\"isWithdrawnOrRetracted\":false,\"journal\":{\"display\":true,\"email\":\"info@researchsquare.com\",\"identity\":\"researchsquare\",\"isNatureJournal\":false,\"hasQc\":true,\"allowDirectSubmit\":true,\"externalIdentity\":\"\",\"sideBox\":\"\",\"snPcode\":\"\",\"submissionUrl\":\"/submission\",\"title\":\"Research Square\",\"twitterHandle\":\"researchsquare\",\"acdcEnabled\":true,\"dfaEnabled\":false,\"editorialSystem\":\"\",\"reportingPortfolio\":\"\",\"inReviewEnabled\":false,\"inReviewRevisionsEnabled\":true},\"keywords\":\"County level, Population semi urbanization rate, Moran index, Spatial Markov chain, Geographic detector model\",\"lastPublishedDoi\":\"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7050744/v1\",\"lastPublishedDoiUrl\":\"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7050744/v1\",\"license\":{\"name\":\"CC BY 4.0\",\"url\":\"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/\"},\"manuscriptAbstract\":\"\\u003cp\\u003eBased on panel data from 38 county-level administrative units in Chongqing from 2013 to 2023, this study systematically examined the dynamic evolution characteristics and influencing factors of semi urbanization rate under the \\\"small county, big city\\\" development model. Through research methods such as Moran's index, spatial Markov chain, center of gravity shift, and geographic detector, it was found that the semi urbanization rate in Chongqing showed a fluctuating trend as a whole, with \\\"first decreasing and then increasing\\\" in various regions year by year. The development speed was fast but the gap was large, and some areas had negative values and population loss problems; At the same time, there is a high probability of an upward increase in the semi urbanization rate, but it is difficult to cross levels and is highly susceptible to the influence of neighboring cities; And the overall center of gravity moves evenly within the main urban area; In terms of influencing factors, the interaction between single and double factors such as social economy, basic public education, social culture, and ecological environment will increase the semi urbanization rate. 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